The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.
This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.
Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.
Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).
Today’s Newspoll: It’s really not good news for Gillard and the Labor Government. Labor’s primary vote only increased at the expense of the Greens & the undecided – note that the Coalition primary vote also increased by 1%.
Abbott still leads as preferred PM, by 5 points.
Labor trails in almost every question as to which party is better able to handle certain portfolio areas.
And Julia is getting slammed on talkback radio this morning, for talking to the 14 year old kid in Bali.
miffed,
Anyone who can support that nest of vipers who revel in misogyny, religious intolerance, racism, social destruction, national-asset plunder and the gouging of the lower classes that typifies the tea-party conservatives who have taken over the Liberal Party, has a hide whining about BK.
I see it’s troll day on PB this morning.
Kezza2,
‘Catholic dog, sitting on a log, eating maggots out of a frog.
get your knickers in a knot over this historical rhyme.
Thanks for that comment
Puffy,
Thanks for that sectarian comment too. Classy
BTW, there’s a new US Conservative/ GOP/ tea-Partyish/ fight-back site (InfoWars) run by another A Jones, sprung into life with an online nightly news broadcast of the Conspiracy-theory type … ALEX Jones, who’s now showing an online nightly news broadcast of the Conspiracy-theory type. BTW, he pinches “Ride of the Valkyrie” to background some of his video posts.
This is shaping up to be the most furiously contested US election since 1968 – the one Norman Mailer described brilliantly in Miami and the Siege of Chicago.
Miffed is perfectly entitled to be here, as long as he follows the rules set by William.
joe2 – the polling company doesn’t mind. The newspoll bloke had a big smile when talking to Sky Agenda this morning. He works for the OO – they’re getting their money’s worth at the moment and, if the PV keeps improving for Labor, Shamaham will be apoplectic as he tries to spin the news favourably for Abbott.
Greg Hunt was bragging about Abbott being the best Opposition Leader in Australia’s history on Sky this morning. No doubt he has been the most effective in dragging down a Govt. which has barely put up a fight but … the best? I think not.
OZPol Tragic,
I think catholics would find it offensive that you link them to teaparty conservativism.
Evan/TLM Guess you are lapping up talkback radio, did you really expect Alan Jones to praise Julia Gillard? Please keep you comments sensible or just go back to AJ and his ilk.
Probably the same goes for Miffed/Abbo(that name gives me the shivers)
“Your comment above is the usual cliched sectarianism that does not advance debate on this blog or anywhere else.”
Rubbish. Having seen at first hand the oppressive jesuitical mindset that has spawned Tony Abbott I will never hold back from warning those who will listen. Abbott will show no mercy in imposing his catholic world view on the population which is different to the many Catholics who do not hold with bullying all into submission.
Newspoll day – troll day on PB. Save yourself the angst guys and scroll on by.
miffed/abbo – as an atheist & sceptic, I don’t agree at all with those posts, which are self defeating on a politics blog and also likely to turn off progressive ‘l’iberal catholics (I know a few in the ALP, and I don’t mean the SDA).
However I note that you have brought up the topic again from yesterday after it was dealt with specifically to stir up trouble and divide posters. Well done, what a good troll you are. Surprised anyone fell for it.
Beats your old tactic of very detailed personal attacks on posters based on extensive prior reading.
Miffed,
An Abbott supporter wouldn’t know class if it wrapped itself around their ankles and tripped them into the sewer pit. Putting ‘1’ next to an L/NP name on a ballot paper proves that.
The bloke from Qld now speaking in the House is stumbling to put up a good argument.
joe2
As I said before please keep your anticatholism to yourself. It has no place on this site or any site.
If BK,Kezza2 and yourself don’t have the decency to retract these comments then maybe you should settle on another site
miffed,
You are so cute when you are annoyed.
I guess a troll is defined as someone who isn’t 100% behind our “greatest PM ever”, and that includes Labor supporters who’d prefer a different leader for the party – only on PB. 🙂
What you mean TLM is that the shockjocks you listen to were giving their talking points for today by the Opposition. I bet every parent, not old codger who listens and whines to 2GB and 2UE, is very pleased that the PM, FM and the local member is talking to them to help them through a stressful time. The kid was silly and the parents must be suffering terribly.
I think Julie Bishop must have forgotten that when Stern Hu was detained in China she insisted that the PM (Kev) and FM (Smith) get up there and talk to him and the Chinese authorities personally.
Joe2,
“Rubbish. Having seen at first hand the oppressive jesuitical mindset that has spawned Tony Abbott I will never hold back from warning those who will listen”,
Are you also antisemitic?
I see miffed-abbo-same-ip-address is still trying to play with the grown ups. I think it’s time for a new name on PB, no? Just make sure to use the same IP address, you know, for the sake of humouresment.
TLM – William has defined a troll elsewhere. Its not about the PM.
Leroy: I wasn’t having a shot at William, who is a very fair moderator, and pulls me up too when it’s warranted(if I’ve written something here stupid).
I’m sitting here LOLing at Abbo: Poll Buldger’s Official Arbiter of Tasteful, Sensible & Respectful Posting. 😀
miffed
I don’t post much, but just had to for this one.
Miffed/Abbo declared they were leaving the blog forever, insulted everyone here, slammed the door and stormed off, and then the next day tried to crawl back in wearing a false beard. So please STFU with all this high-horse pomposity about decency and class, you immature ass.
An amazing interpretation, smacking of lunacy.
She can’t do anything right, can she?
It would have been just as easy to slam her for not talking to the kid, letting KR steal her thunder, “Just who is Prime Minister?” etc.
The shock jocks are professional muck rakers. They fall into a netherworld between journalism and showmanship.
When they are “breaking” news, they are journalists.
When they are pulled up and pinged on something, they are “mere entertainers” with no responsibility for whether what they say is truthful or not.
Another duality is Michelle Grattan’s membership of the media.
When she tells us that a story “won’t go away” she means it won’t go away because she’ll make bloody sure it won’t go away.
She can cheerfully promote Ruddstoration …
and then – in the same sentence – tell us this…
Clearly not La Stupenda’s media talk. It’s the other media talk that’s feverish, while hers is presumably ordered and constructive.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/uncertain-week-as-gillard-awaits-rudds-next-move-20111009-1lfy1.html#ixzz1aQClgA7P
In any case, can the Diva of the Age be anything but Gravitas personified? In her own mind that would be a silly question.
It’s amazing that so many in the media and journalism swap between roles – one day news breakers, the next members of the Not The Media, according to what they’re banging on about on any particular day.
Ray Warren is one of these too. A simple football commentator, who’s got just as much right to express his opinion as anyone else has… except it was scripted down to the last word and read out live in the highest ratings minute of television in NSW to over a million people.
And while it may have been “Free Speech”, it sure wasn’t free. That minute was worth over half a million dollars in revenue to the Nine Network. They don’t give that kind of moolah away for nothing.
which isn’t often at all, Evs
miffed, I retract nuffing but I will draw attention to paedophile priests and laity if you want a read. Some known to Abbott I have no doubt.
http://brokenrites.alphalink.com.au/
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieu-office-a-black-hole-for-foi-requests-20111010-1lhky.html?posted=successful
Looks as though Baillieu is being “Clever”??? Have a look at the comment
BK @ 84
-unlike the well-thought-out, clearly-enunciated policies of our own “people’s revolution” protesters?
I see that when Newspoll goes down it is bad news for the govt but also when newspoll goes up it’s bad new for the govt according to some.
I like the fact that there is a slow rise because those votes are likely to stay with the govt.
Volatile toing and froing with a big jump would be suspect and flimsy.
We have some 50 Newspolls between now and next election. At 1 %point per Newspoll, ALP would win 149 seats at the next election 😆
As to today’s news:
Any threat to force a bi-election if Gillard is ousted was the same as was made by the Indies 2 weeks ago. Nothing new there.
The phone call to the boy in Bali is ‘junk’ news. The Libs have decided it is okay to put the Indonesians off-side by agitating this, just as they don’t care about upsetting Treasury, economists, scientists, AFP and every other ‘body’ in the country.
The blatantness of their political opportunism is getting so laughable. It also confirms that the media IS biased because they haven’t called the Libs out on this when blind Freddy can see how opportunistic it is.
Jumping off soapbox now — the next few days in Parliament will be gratifying. I am just wondering what sort of ‘trick’ the Libs will try and pull to prevent the CP legislation being voted on.
jen,
The worst possible outcome would be if Newspoll stayed the same!
joe2,
“I would have thought, since it is Tones’ aim to introduce a theocracy with a distinctly catholic bent, it should be well and truly part of the conversation.
George Pell must have a bloodied lip from biting it so much. It would not do to come out before the election as the true puppet master.”
Thanks also for this earlier comment
http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/pyne_rules_out_support_for_steel_R3BsK4nyYsnR6bDBuaTPpN
Good morning all.
I’ve asked before and gotten no answer, so may as well ask again: Why do people think that what happens in shockjock land in any way represents what is happening in the real world?
Time and time again it is shown that shockjocks have an inflated sense of their own influence and importance, and that their radio obsessions do not reflect the concerns of most people.
Some perspective would be nice.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/cabinet-minister-dismisses-mp-quit-threat-20111011-1lhvw.html
Jen the level of political opportunism is obscenely high lately but sadly it is coming from both sides of politics.
Yes, I got a laugh at those comments too.
I’m happy with the 3% rise in PV, and see that as most definately good news for the govt.
More on the Gavin King saga…
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/lnp-endorsing-next-pauline-hanson-20111010-1lhca.html
More in the article, contains stuff from the Cairns Blog post by the ex State Sec, and reaction to it.
It’s time Michelle Grattan was retired to the gossip pages where she belongs. Wake me when the Age hires a columnist with the ability to write about politics.
Because they are worried that the Australian electorate is largley composed of easily frightened and manipulated idiots i’d say.
I think that the shock jocks actual influence is quite restricted, except where they get picked up by other media and the media makes the media the story.
The more i see of the spin and bullsh#t from or media at the moment the more it think that we need a major purge, if for nothing else to get some competence into the industry.
confessions I have my own theory on radio shock jocks and why they attract an audience. For some people it’s a way to vent on issues they get worked up about as the radio gives them a voice and outlet. Others just seem to love listening to them just to be outraged by what they say.
David, if you truly think that, then our lack of awareness is monumental.
Panic of the Plutocrats
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/opinion/panic-of-the-plutocrats.html?_r=3&smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
TLM @ 151 – actually, I think it is good news, as much as one can read anything into a single poll.
If people who parked their votes with the Greens/ Others are beginning to come back, then there’s an indication people are beginning to listen to the government again.
Long way to go, mind.
Jen, of course he has bucket loads of evidence to prove this
BK
I didn’t see your earlier comments, so can’t comment on those one way or the other. But I agree it is quite reasonable to call people in public life out when their utterances do not seem to match their stated religious beliefs. All hypocrisy should be exposed.
miffed
Why the commandment to respect “all” religions ? They most certainly do not deserve unversal respect ?
imacca – when is the last time anyone saw a multi=page spread in any newspaper on major policy? I recall they used to be quite common in the 80s and 90s. You just don’t get that level of in depth reporting any more.
@199 – should be multi-page, obvs.