The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.
This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.
Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.
Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).
BK #81
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
You little Beauty! What a cracker indeed!
G’day Danny +1 again.
G’day Finns. Updating your Great Big (& daily increasing) list again this week?
Albo, in answer to the suggestion that a failure of the Malaysian legislation would trigger an election, “It’s a nonsense and as a professional journalist you should know that.”
Morning all. The APH live broadcasting page says the House begins at 8.00 am, but no sign of it that I can see.
The New ACCC head has fired a shot over the bow of Woolies, Coles, Telstra and airports to watch out for themselves.
Real Time (AEST) or Daylight Saving?
It says AEDT, but I found another place that says 9.00 am.
I find it amusing that the ABC never lets pass an opportunity to replay Daryl Melham’s infamous “ABC have lost all credibility” when they asked him about the Gillard coup on the fateful night last year as he left Parliament House. I must have seen it 20 times now, and it was on 7.30 again last night. Any report on leadership is an excuse to show it again.
News Radio said they are switching over to parliament at 9am
historic couple of days for Australia – sadly it will all be overshadowed later in the week when the boat vote either goes down or gets pulled 🙁
Morning Pollbludgers,
The clouds are in,
We still have a hobbled Prime Minister,
Wayne Swan can’t communicate anything,
ALP is still on the nose from coast to coast and from issue to issue
All in all a very positive day for the brotherhood
miffed,
You are one of those glass half full types, aren’t you.
…and that one sentence sums up the “modern” Liberal Party under Tony Abbott.
Waking early, I lay in bed listening to ABC radio.
I heard news bulletins at 5am, 5.30am, 6am, Early AM at 6.10am, (dozed off for 6.30 and 7am), 7.30am and 7.45am and then only heard there had been a Newspoll on AM at 8am.
No numbers given, just that “although the government’s numbers are up a little, Julia Gillard is still unpopular”.
SK
Yep. No HoR vote automatically triggers an election.
Government loss of a No confidence vote, or on a motion to reduce the Budget (“By a penny” used to be the convention) would normally lead to the GG asking the Opposition if it could guarantee confidence. If it can, it becomes government without need of an election. If it can’t (as Fraser couldn’t in 1975 because labor controlled the Reps) the GG can call an election.
Given that, in 1941, Oz Gov changed without an election because:
and, in 1975, because Labor couldn’t get the budget passed (no Senate majority) & Fraser lacked the numbers to gain the HoR’s confidence, surely Australian electors ought to know that! There’s no doubt that the MSN & shockjocks – many old enough to remember 1975 – do know it. Honesty is not the MSM’s idea of the best policy
OzPol,
The abc breakfast show ran their commentary this morning on the basis of this fallacy.
BB
It takes time to rewrite the OO articles, you know!
Gedday Bludgers
Well done Perret.
He’s got the presenters and commentators flummoxed.
Who’s this upstart Perret killing off our leadership crisis meme.
Marius Benson bewildered . . . dribbles into his cuppa . . . but but he’s a convenor from the left. *sob sob*
Dennis Atkins sounds more circumspect. Ah well, you can almost hear him saying, back to the drawing board for a real story.
Sabre-tooth Lane on a trembling backfoot.
Faine hasn’t mentioned it yet. But, give him time. someonein the studio is hurriedly trying to put together a piece that doesn’t sound too contrived to try to keep the meme going.
Now perhaps we can concentrate on Greg Hunt repeating the lines of union traitor Grace De-Unionise Collier re the steel industry – and the bind the Coalition has put itself in opposing the $300 million package.
Oh, but wait – there’s a big story breaking about match-fixing in Australian cricket. Ye gad. We Aussies are apparently the best at it. Isn’t being the best a good thing?
Lets keep our anticatholism comments to a minimum today. I’m sure BK , with your political correctness, that you would be very careful not to criticise non christian religions so why not widen the scope to all religions.
But, in the only place it matters, in Federal Parliament, Abbott’s Opposition has failed to get so much as ONE of Gillard Government’s c200 bills amended, much less stopped.
And the next election is due in c2 years, or 731 days … or about 50 Newspolls!
Nice little bump in the primary vote.
Off a terribly low base, mind.
abbo
rose-coloured glasses suit you
The OO’s litany of Labor woes on their front page on line:
This does smack of at least some concern on behalf of the OO.
It’s wall to wall bad news, generated by their in-house controversy machine and bootstrap engine, Newspoll.
They’re shifting the goal posts to where a 3 point increase in PV would not provide any joy, which is clearly tommy rot. Shanahan has form on this.
I detect that they think they are losing this round and are giving the government one last boot up the arse. Quite spiteful, actually.
On the other hand Abbott is “on the wrong side of history” concerning pokies legislation. I would also think his Carbon Tax “rollback” policy is causing some concern with the punters. I heard a figure of $30 billion in cost if they roll it back. That’s serious money.
No-one can accuse Gillard of having had an easy ride getting the legislation through to this point (and hopefully to a confirming vote this week in the Reps and next week in the Senate).
It is not a WorkChoices redux. It’s been hard grind all the way through. She’ll score some poiints for determination on that, even if every time someone stubs their toe or loses their job the CT is blamed.
Abbott’s basic position is that he wants to set the clock back to 2007… only it’s now 2011, and may be 2013 before he gets his chance at an election, and perhaps 2015 before he could cancel the CT (if a DD is required). That’s an awful lot of blowback and buyback in his rollback.
Plus he also needs to implement his own Direct Action policy.
I find it difficult to see how that will happen without huge expense to the bottom line.
All they’re left with is spite, sadly.
Lenore Taylor covers a bit of the new anti-carbon pricing manufacturers lobby group.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/no-holds-barred-as-industry-lobby-fights-tax-20111010-1lhmc.html
As I recall, Warburton is a former Howard flak appointed to the Reserve Bank Board, now thankfully retired. Not likely to see a lot of innovative thinking there.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/i-s-s-urges-ousting-majority-of-news-corp-directors/
More in the article
Why? I thought you Tories are currently all for unbridled Freedom of Speech. Or is that ‘all for unbridled Freedom of Speech’ but only for right-wingers?
Besides, the RC/ NCC/ DLP “takeover” of state & federal Liberal parties has been well canvassed, analysed, appeared in top “Class A” referred Oz history/ political journals (eg AJHP) and a number of books, at least since Holt’s death (17/12/1967), and other RC scandals (esp sexual assault) well canvassed internationally for decades; so, unlike the Bolt rantings that saw him convicted, they at least are based on well-documented truth.
If you can’t take the political heat, stay out of the kitchen.
miffed
I have equal belief in the beliefs of all religions. I have little respect for the hypocrisy often displayed by Miranda Devine.
I do agree, though, that my comment yesterday may have been too general.
One thing Perrett’s comments prove is that there actually is a direct and real threat to Gillard. Everyone on PB insisting the Labor leadership talk in the media is a fantasy have been way off. The grand conspiracy theory has been proved wrong, yet again. You don’t see that many journalists simply making up conversations with ministers and others.
The other thing the article serves to confirm is that Rudd is not the only possible replacement, which is consistent with Richo’s line the other day against Rudd – probably on behalf of at least sections of the ruling right. Maybe it was serving Smith’s purposes.
BK,
If you have a look at the comment you made yesterday then you would agree that your comment was directed at catholics. If you are going to back track on a comment then at least admit you were wrong.
People like yourself who openly attack catholics is a throwback to a past which I thought Australia had left behind. You obviously haven’t left that past behind. Why don’t you admit that you indulged in catholic bashing yesterday.
What a contradiction in terms, abbo
Naming and shaming BK as politically correct because you were offended.
The hoot rolls on.
BB, I love the smell of Tory panic in the morning! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpvLCptAHT8
Goes with Moir’s cartoon http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
It’s the vibe not the policies.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/no_bounce_for_the_government/
miffed
I clumsily tried to portray Devine as a hypocrite to her own religious beliefs. She happens to be Catholic.
That is my last comment on the matter.
La Stupenda, telegraphing her punches:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/uncertain-week-as-gillard-awaits-rudds-next-move-20111009-1lfy1.html#ixzz1aQ55lx6L
Yes, you old crone, and who will gleefully tell us that the CT has been overshadowed?
Once again, Gillard has failed a Grattan “test”, or perhaps it’s more that she has passed one, so now the Diva finds an even higher hurdle for the government to jump?
Guess who’s the umpire, linesman and ballboy all rolled into one.
OPT
Thanks for all the links yesterday re Southern Johnstone/strikes etc. I have them bookmarked for closer reading. Fascinating stuff so far.
have to go out now, will rejoin the fray later.
BK,
Clumsily?
Your comment was directed at catholics. Shall we put the comment up again????
As I said before please keep your sectarian views to yourself. If you can’t respect all religions then don’t comment
I’ll agree Abbott & Co are indeed an unpleasant throwback to the past; but if it is to a past that Australia had left behind, why is the DLP back – not only disguised as Abbott’s Liberals, or members of the MSM, on paper, on the airwaves and TV – but actually in the Victorian & Federal Parliament?
Give us a break! We can do our own research, you know! In fact, far more easily and extensively that ever before.
Oh, btw
Anyone heard of victoria lately. Haven’t seen her about for a few days.
victoria, if you’re about, hope all is well in your world.
Even the UNHCR is eqivocating on the Malaysian Deal for AS. The hand wringers lose more credibility.
“ASYLUM seekers would receive better protections in Malaysia under the Gillard government’s proposed transfer deal than being held in indefinite mandatory detention in Australia, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees office has said”.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/malaysia-a-better-option-for-asylum-seekers-says-un-20111010-1lhm8.html#ixzz1aQ6rpM6c
miffed
When religious people in public life stop pushing their selective religious views upon us I will stop pushing back.
Have a nice day.
“Lets keep our anticatholism comments to a minimum today.”
I would have thought, since it is Tones’ aim to introduce a theocracy with a distinctly catholic bent, it should be well and truly part of the conversation.
George Pell must have a bloodied lip from biting it so much. It would not do to come out before the election as the true puppet master.
But I think you confuse “anticatholism” with fair comment concerning a dangerous zealot when it comes to Abbott.
BK
That says it all mate. Shall we put that comment up again??
abbo
Go for it. Then we can accuse you of hypocrisy on a grand scale.
In the meantime,
get your knickers in a knot over this historical rhyme.
The “early bird catches the worm”, have had 2 comments posted in Herald Sun, on pokies and Newspoll. Now for the big ones in The Terror and The Age
Another view re Malaysia
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/offshore-processing-bill-is-tampa-law-mark-ii-unjust-and-bad-20111010-1lhey.html
I read Graham Perrett’s intervention/comments as code for……………..I don’t want a leadership change to Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten or Greg Combet, BUT the people of Moreton would accept a return to Kevin Rudd.
BK
I’m with you on that. The price of secular government policy is eternal vigilance. You’ve got to watch all the religions closely. The ACL is lurking for example, and has many friends in this government – and in the LNP.
joe,
BK’s comment that miffed and I found offensive had nothing to do with Abbott or Pell.
William jumped on it last night which I applaud and as far a I’m concerned it is time to move on.
Your comment above is the usual cliched sectarianism that does not advance debate on this blog or anywhere else. Given there are probably equal numbers of Catholics in both major parties, it is pretty hard to sustain an argument that our freedoms are under threat from the the cruel yoke of catholicism.
kezza2 #132 Happy to put them up when I find them.
Thanks GG – let’s call it a day.
TLM – wow, guess you can read into something whatever you want.
miffed….you’re not here to tell any of us to “respect all religions…” FFS!!
As a matter of fact I “respect” none…founded as they are on rank delusions…and driven as they are by a desire to indoctrinate/bully/and kill to maintain their control over the minds and bodies of countless “believers”
Go and do your bullying elsewhere…. & PS: You’ve picked on one of the most respected and decent members of this Blog…. & as far as I’m concerned his comments on ANY subject are very welcome..
BK…Thanx for the latest Moir Cartoon….absolutely brilliant…the (L) eye particularly gave me a chill up my spine… 🙂 🙂
Nailed it in one. I wonder how the polling company feels about being used by Dennis Shanahan and co the way they so obviously are. Everything that Murdoch seems to touch is debased, even sport and counting poll numbers .