Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.

This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.

Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.

Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,297 thoughts on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Both the Liberal and National parties have brought forward their campaign planning by a year, with sitting MPs instructed to ensure their campaign structures are ready for a snap poll.

    Small problem – Where are the pre-selections for Pearce & Moore ?

  2. Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me, and I welcome their hatred.

    we, the people, will resist the dead hand of the fibocracy

  3. One amusing point about all the ELECTION~! hysteria is that if you asked a Liberal about their policy, they’d still say that they’d be given out ‘in good time’.

  5. So the fibs are asking money from the low to middle income earners. Giving them money would be like paying for the boots that are going to kick you up the arske.

  6. Leroy

    Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 1:31 am | Permalink

    Frank, are you refering to the ALP preselections for Pearce & Moore?

    The Libs 🙂

    Judi Moylan and Mal Washer are both retiring.

    The Libs are in Panic mode – we are not 🙂

  8. The fundraising team will target the “big end of town” and includes Mr Downer, the long-serving foreign minister,

    So Wot? Pay us money or we’ll send Alex to sit on your lap with his feather boa!!!

    I’d probably pay up. 🙁

  10. gusface

    Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 1:35 am | Permalink

    frank

    and whatshisname

    the traitor

    will face a tough time I hear

    one timer so it seems

    good

    You mean Uncle Ken Wyatt ? 🙂

    Hopefully he won;t have the female dynamic duo to help him we hope.

  13. So Wot? Pay us money or we’ll send Alex to sit on your lap with his feather boa!!!

    I’d probably pay up. 🙁

    Hehehe… and what a shock that the Libs are trying to get more support from the highly wealthy. 😛

  18. Frank – interesting that the Herald Sun headline was similar to AAP report, and they had Essential Poll on Pokies article. The real push is from The Australian. As yet I can’t see any house written articles in The Daily Telegraph or Courier Mail, but breaking news feed in both has the AAP report. After all you can only run Low Poll articles so long before they’re boring to general readership.

    I’m disgusted however at DT running that Lib MP written article on Thomson’s family.

  19. I missed this earlier Monday arvo…

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/10431453/greens-hint-theyll-back-steel-assistance/

    Greens hint they’ll back steel assistance
    By Julian Drape, AAP October 10, 2011, 3:44 pm

    The Greens have given the strongest indication yet they’ll back Labor’s $300 million steel industry assistance package when the lower house votes on the carbon tax legislation this week.

    Greens industry spokesman Adam Bandt says the minor party is still considering its position and will discuss the steel bill on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s vote.

    But in a signal the Greens are leaning towards supporting the steel transformation plan (STP), Mr Bandt has adopted Labor’s language to attack the opposition leader.

    “It’s astounding that Tony Abbott’s concern for manufacturing has already evaporated,” the key crossbench MP told AAP in a statement.

    Mr Bandt also said the Greens could be swayed on the plan’s merits.

    More in the article.

  20. I’m disgusted however at DT running that Lib MP written article on Thomson’s family.

    I am sure that the DT has an article hot on the presses ready to go on the impact on Mary Jo Fisher’s family with her being charged with alleged shoplifting and alleged assault of a security guard.

  22. Bruce Hawker:

    FEDERAL Labor’s present troubles have encouraged a spate of articles predicting the Gillard government’s almost certain demise.

    What is most galling about them, particularly those from former Labor powerbrokers, is that there is barely a word of advice about how the government can improve its position.

    History shows it is possible for Labor to steer a course through its troubles and restore the stocks of the party and the government. Labor governments can achieve a balance between the competing demands of an environmentally and politically progressive inner-city constituency and a suburban and regional base that is more concerned with employment and personal security.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/labor-can-pull-back-from-the-brink/story-e6frgd0x-1226163348720

  25. Malaysia a better option for asylum seekers, says UN

    So UNHCR has put its stamp of approval on the Malaysian Solution and dispel all the propaganda, eg: caning. Most importantly, this is the beginning of a truly regional solution to the AS problem.

    ASYLUM seekers would receive better protections in Malaysia under the Gillard government’s proposed transfer deal than being held in indefinite mandatory detention in Australia, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees office has said.

    Australia ”would fall well short” of the human rights criteria demanded of Malaysia under the deal signed in July, the UNHCR’s regional representative, Richard Towle, has told a parliamentary inquiry…….. The Greens MP Adam Bandt and the Tasmanian independent MP, Andrew Wilkie, have flagged they will vote against the bill because they oppose offshore processing on human rights grounds. But the UNHCR’s regional office, in response to questions from a Greens- and opposition-led inquiry, has offered its strongest support yet for the Malaysia swap proceeding….. The UNHCR has also dismissed a ”misperception” that asylum seekers could be caned, saying the document to be issued proving their legal status would have been ”a significant safeguard”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/malaysia-a-better-option-for-asylum-seekers-says-un-20111010-1lhm8.html#ixzz1aPPYUaZq

  26. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    the beautiful set of numbers #MSMhacks are truly terrified of 2 years, 104 wks 730 days 17520 hrs, 1,051,200 mins & 63,072,000 secs #auspol
    5 seconds ago

  27. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    The Sheeppen Shaggers are worried, very worried – All Blacks must target Cooper’s confidence crisis smh.com.au/rugby-union/un… #wrc2011
    3 seconds ago

  28. An idea for Liberal party fundraising:

    Pay us X and you can have dinner with the Lib pollie (ex or current) of your choice.

    Pay us X ++ and you can just have the dinner.

  29. And where’s the concern for Sophie Mirabella’s family?

    Word has it that her mother has left and gone back to Melbourne.

    And of course SM has been spending more time at home.

    So they’re hurting on a number of levels.

  30. Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey is understood to have done three dinners, two cocktail functions and a fundraising lunch across three states in the past week alone.

    No wonder he looks hungry. 😆

  32. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    What happening in #EURO banks is the classic of “Privatizing the profits and Publicizing the Losses” #Disgusting
    8 seconds ago

  34. From a New York Times editorial.

    As the Occupy Wall Street protests spread from Lower Manhattan to Washington and other cities, the chattering classes keep complaining that the marchers lack a clear message and specific policy prescriptions. The message — and the solutions — should be obvious to anyone who has been paying attention since the economy went into a recession that continues to sock the middle class while the rich have recovered and prospered. The problem is that no one in Washington has been listening.

    It is not the job of the protesters to draft legislation. That’s the job of the nation’s leaders, and if they had been doing it all along there might not be a need for these marches and rallies. Because they have not, the public airing of grievances is a legitimate and important end in itself. It is also the first line of defense against a return to the Wall Street ways that plunged the nation into an economic crisis from which it has yet to emerge.

  35. The polls will tank when the carbon tax passes…I suspect below the 26%. Mr Perrett would be happy for us to walk to oblivion like lemmings it seems, but a majority of MP’s aren’t I think. This will be the obvious danger time as it is a long time between implementation and being passed.

  36. More information about the candidates. MITT ROMNEY speaks French and JON HUNTSMAN is fluent in Chinese. When MICHELE BACHMANN heard they were bilingual she said, “That’s okay, as long as they don’t get married.”

  37. Good morning, fellow Bludgers!

    The sun is up.

    The birds are singing.

    Labor is still in government.

    Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.

    Wayne Swan is the World’s Greatest Treasurer.

    Kevin Rudd is a happy little vegemite as Foreign Minister.

    Andrew Bolt is a dickhead.

    All is right with the world.

  39. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Bright & sunny – so far. But da rain, it’ a comin’. Local news turned up yesterday when the Chronic & local news returned after the weekend. Electricity in my area comes from on Gatton grid so we missed big blackouts (for a change). Toowoomba city area flooded. Again. As it usually does during a fast heavy storm-downpour. T Regional Council has no intention of ripping up the concrete creek beds and doing some fast replanting of seriously water-absorbing trees, or deepening gutters, or … After all, all this concrete was part of other Mayors’ “beautification” projects …

    OTOH, breathing easier now that the storm-soaked Escarpment is less likely to go up in flames.

    The Finnigans @ 77 +1

    Re the DT article on Thomson & family – hey, that’s more cheering than Newspoll’s incremental creep. What chance it has anything to do with this week’s HoR vote on CP etc, or that Abbott has to face his moment of truth re AS, or that most of the problematic bills should have passed before pollies schlepp off for Christmas Vac … and Abbott has Buckley’s of being in the Lodge this Christmas either?

    So the DT article is a good indication of how desperate the Murdocracy, Libs, Big Polluters, Big Miners, etc really are!

    And I’m lovin’ it!

  41. the Coalition has edged in front of Labor as the party judged better able to handle climate change for the first time on record, 31 per cent to 28 per cent.

    lol, this is great. Labor cant even win on Climate change…… but gillard is doing a fantastic job, her ability to drive support away in all areas of policy is unquestionable .

  44. I mentioned this last night – huge news for South Australia with Olympic Dam getting environmental approval. BHPB still have to commit to funding it, and conditions will cost a lot.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/minerals-bonanza-as-bhp-digs-deep-on-olympic-dam-20111010-1lhgi.html

    I can’t agree with Greens on concerns over the tailings dam for this. If you understand where ODX is, it would take a meteorological miracle for the water to ever reach a watercourse. The main issue is energy use and greenhouse gases. That can be overcome provided they use renewable energy. I think the Greens opposition to this is ideological; the approval conditions are very strict. BHPB must build a desalination plant to supply it with water, and use of aquifers will actually decline.

  47. lol, this is great. Labor cant even win on Climate change…… but gillard is doing a fantastic job, her ability to drive support away in all areas of policy is unquestionable .

    Yeah. In OpPoll LaLa land, rummel! Not in HoR reality, where at least 200 out of 200 government bills have passed both Houses, and the CP legislation will pass the HoR this week.

    It’s reality that counts! In political reality, winning is the ability to get one’s agenda passed by the Parliament.

    In political reality, Abbott is Australia’s Greatest Loser.

    Suck it up, Petal.

  48. BK and SK:
    I’ve been sticking up a collection of Moir cartoons in my office space. They’re great – near a walkway so they generate a lot of comments by passersby who overwhelmingly think the Popeye character is a spot-on depiction of Abbott. They don’t see Moir down here in Victoria so my expanding cartoon collection causes a bit of a stir from time to time.

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