Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.

This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.

Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.

Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,297 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. turnbull should cross floor this week and leave ministry. only honourable thing to do and his best chance to be leader. but who’d want him? after his fluff ball fear mongering on oz as north korea last night. another cannon in the liberal caribbean pirate boat. O where is johnny depp when you need him?

  2. Julia’s between a rock and a hard place and the tide still rises. was any of this necessary – keep on the path and you wont get lost.

  4. [Just pre-empting some of the vitriol I will no doubt attract from poster who are less reasonable and rational than you.]
    Well being a reasonable person as you are why pre-empt it? How does that change anything?

  5. Oh yes … one last note … “languishing” has a connotation of continuance … that is remaining in a state of desolation. It’s a lovely word. It has done nothing to deserve your abuse.

    I know you marketeers love your accuracy and methodological correctness … so please, when there is an “increase in support” purportedly detected in your 1,000 answers, try and get the words right…. it’s a 10% improvement. A bunch of Cassandras is reading these entrails…all they see is doom and disaster.

  7. Phil Coorey on Graham Perrett

    [
    Who is Graham Perrett?

    A threat by government backbencher Graham Perrett to quit Parliament and force a byelection if Julia Gillard were removed as Prime Minister was not a rush of blood by a backbencher seeking publicity.

    Mr Perrett, a former teacher and lawyer who once played in a rock band and who won the Brisbane seat of Moreton from the Liberal minister Gary Hardgrave in 2007, has been of this view for several months.

    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/who-is-graham-perrett-20111011-1li9e.html#poll

  8. Mumble’s piece makes a bit of sense to me, however, I think we all forget a number of PMs and indeed OLs have taken time to grow into the role.

    So much has happened in a little over 12 months, it’s easy to forget the Gillard Prime Ministership is still comparatively in its infancy. I recall Howard, as only the most recent example, as a PM who looked terribly out of his depth when he first came to office. I recall him being openly mocked for his demenaour and the way he conducted himself. He was often derided as being anything but Prime Ministerial.

    It’s a big job, and people take time to grow into it. Growing into it in a media-driven atmosphere of constant crisis and government-on-the-precipice must be even more difficult.

    Time is on her side. I maintain, if the election is held in the second half of 2013 and the economy has not tanked, Labor (with Gillard leading) will win by 6-10 seats.

  9. The important thing about Mumble and others is the reinforcing of the idea that GOOD GOVT is not the important thing – PERCEPTION is.

    As I said on twitter: Abbott would fiddle while Rome burns and the media will stand on the sidelines cheering. The fact that we go down the gurgler is not important to them, after all, the electorate matters least in the equation if journos are to be believed.

    I am personally incensed at the shallowness of media coverage and the destructive potential this has for our country.

  12. poroti,the golden boy at a small business in queandeyan,surprise surprise , up and up and up etc, biggest carbon tax in the world etc,

  13. BH @ 247

    I absolutely agree with your post. Sad but true!

    We have a class of politicians who are careerists with their main aim in life being to get to be a politician as quickly as possible. Many of them have no “real life” experience of the world inhabited by those they rely upon to get them elected.

    A stint in Young Labor or the Young Libs with a university degree followed by a job in a pollies office at the behest of a factional boss who gives you a promise of seat if you just wait in turn and play the game has nothing to do with the real world.

    They have never needed to provide “good political nous” as you put it. Some of them had better start learning how to do it and soon. Standing behind a Minister or indeed the Prime Minister nodding your head in unison just won’t cut it.

    BTW Those buying in to the rants of the Shock Jocks and they are not just the over fifty group are being provided with the selling of an arguement 24/7 and taking it all on board.

  14. Riley giving Abbott a hard time on his refusal to back the steel industry bill.
    Another question on the AS legislation.
    He can’t get a single question yet on his CT amendment.

  16. [The important thing about Mumble and others is the reinforcing of the idea that GOOD GOVT is not the important thing – PERCEPTION is.]
    It would be great if ‘good government’ was seen by the electorate as the important thing. Unfortunately they’ve proven many times that they can easily be hoodwinked. Most just watch the 10 second grabs on the news and believe every word and picture they see and gain a perception, one that is often wrong.

  17. mickt

    [poroti,the golden boy at a small business in queandeyan,surprise surprise , up and up and up etc, biggest carbon tax in the world etc,]

    Ta.Just the same old same old then.

  18. bemused & BH,

    Your comments either implicitly assume a level media playing field (which is inaccurate- it is in fact highly skewed against Labor), or they assume that Labor people are politically hopeless if they cannot routinely overcome that highly skewed media.

    You may recall that Gough Whitlam failed comprehensively to overcome a similar but much less complete and universal media bias. Were Whitlam and the Labor Party of the day thus even more hopeless politically than Gillard, Swan and the Labor Party of today? You are falling into the common trap of blaming the assault victim for the assault, which no doubt delights the perpetrators.

  24. I have to agree with the Mumbles sentiment that it’s largely about perception. Labor haven’t explained the carbon pricing scheme very well. Why when we already have schemes in place that cost $15 per tonne do we need a comprehensive scheme that will add another $20+ when few other countries have committed to do the same. It’s the lack of any comprehensive action globally that is hurting the government. Why us and why now? Until they properly explain that they will struggle on this issue.

  30. Journos giving Abbott some hard questions at a presser don’t translate into evening TV news or even on-line reporting. There’s only one story today and tomorrow – the illegitimacy of the Government when Crook ensures the AS Bill goes down. Oakshott and Windsor and Wilkie and Bandt won’t see it as a vote of no confidence – just old Michelle.

  33. “TA the self described “junk yard dog” whole raison d’être has been to stop the CP. What happens when the whirling dervish attack dog looks around and sees nothing to go into attack mode over ?”

    He does what he always does: creates another level of outrage more outrageous than the previous outrage. Remember the outrage over demanding a plebiscite for the flood levy? He was outraged! Now it’s all forgotten and he’s outraged over … um … something or other.

    BK: One day journalists are going to get tired of him not answering their questions. I’m predicting mid-2012, but it will happen.

  36. [It’s the lack of any comprehensive action globally that is hurting the government. Why us and why now? Until they properly explain that they will struggle on this issue.]
    I don’t believe that. I think Labor has adressed that part very well. The part that is still misunderstood IMHO is to do with the words ‘tax’ and ‘compensation’ and people will live that after July. So this misunderstanding should be rectified before the next election. Also other countries will have done more in the next two years and I think the government will be pointing any further developments out.

  37. son of foro

    mid 2012! the forecasts of improvement would fail popper’s test – shifting goalposts of optimism. the world’s climate and economy might fall over by then and we’ll still be on this blog waiting for the next 1% poll change. i will wait till … next saturday.

  39. Lynchpin

    [Just clocking on. Is Abbott proposing an amendment to the Carbon Price legislation? If so, what is the gist of it?]
    On the radio this morning I heard the Coalition had “a cunning plan”. Move an ammendment so that the CP does not start until after the next elelection. Heaven forbid if it came in before then and people find out it is not the baby eating monster they have been telling us it is 🙂

  40. Thanks Fess. Same old tactic. The people have voted. We have a hung Parliament. Put it to the vote there.

    If Turnbull has any credibility, he will cross the floor. Hunt should resign.

  43. [It’s the vibe, not the policies.

    The Prime Minister mucked up the politics of authority and leadership from day one and has passed the point of no return. The Treasurer is a woeful communicator, with negative believability.

    They make even Tony Abbott look good. ]

    Kinda feels like code for the old ‘GILLARD HAS NO GRAVITAS’ argument you see put here and about. And again, I love the denial of responsibility there. You wonder sometimes if the reason so many people apparently feel she has no authority and Swan has no ‘marketing skills’ is because that message gets shouted at people at least a dozen times a week. And then you get the feedback cycle effect I’ve mentioned before.

    Polls show Gillard is unpopular > dozens of stories on her being so unpopular > polls get even lower > yet more stories appear.

    Rinse, wash, repeat.

    [Sadly, there is a lot of truth in Mumbles second last paragraph. It will take a lot to turn this around. The turn around may have started, but it has a long way to go.]

    And of course, but the thing is that contrary to media hysteria about the impending death of the government, there still is a hell of a long time to turn things around on that front. Its just about maintaining perspective.

  44. I’d like to see all the journos gang up on him 😉

    Question 1 at his next presser:

    [Mr Abbott: can you tell us how much time you have to answer questions today?]

    Question 2 should then be something both off topic and something likely to make him start to unravel.

    Question 3 should also be something off topic and likely to make him unravel more.

    Question 4 should be a sufficient zinger to cause a severe unravelling.

    And that should just about ensure the end of his mindless doorstops in Queanbeyan 😀

    Win:Win for good journalism and good politics.

  45. karen Andrews speaks about the pain coming to manufacturers with the CT. Does she know her party intends opposing the govt’s compensation package to the sector?

  47. [I don’t believe that. I think Labor has adressed that part very well. The part that is still misunderstood IMHO is to do with the words ‘tax’ and ‘compensation’ and people will live that after July. So this misunderstanding should be rectified before the next election. Also other countries will have done more in the next two years and I think the government will be pointing any further developments out.]

    Good point. And who can blame some people when the only message they hear (via TV ads or radio) is the blatantly dishonest one that the carbon tax is going to hit THEM directly? The Coalition/vested interests can’t win on facts so they have to try and do it by lies instead.

  50. Son of foro

    [He does what he always does: creates another level of outrage more outrageous than the previous outrage.]

    Oh I am quite sure he will continue in outrage mode. However he does need an issue where such outrage does not look a tad silly and over the top. With most of the legislative “biggies” tucked away in the near future he will be left with a dearth of suitable targets for outrage. Not that that particular leopard would ever change his spots though 🙂

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