The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.
This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.
Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.
Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).
It will still be some time before the polls get better for Labor but the important thing, as many PBers have stated, Labor is still standing.
There is less and less talk about “mandate”. These days nearly all talk, from the conservatives about, “can’t wait until 2013 to vote these…………out”. If this is not an admission of impotency I don’t know what is.
Was it not so long ago that the current government “would not last until Christmas”, that “Julia was gone” etc boringly, etc.
The longer the PM stays on her feet the more frustrated and angry the conservative side becomes.
Everyone must notice the number of the conservatives who can’t stop themselves frothing at the mouth when they are angry. BJ becomes almost incoherent.
May this seething anger continue while the country is actual being government by those who keep their cool.
Stefan Tomasz
[Was it not so long ago that the current government “would not last until Christmas”, that “Julia was gone” etc boringly, etc.]
That gave me a chuckle at the time as the “all over by Christmas” line was popular in 1914 🙂
Another significant IT innovator (C programming language) dies Unix creator Dennis Ritchie dies aged 70
BH
My gut tells me that Labor will bring back many who have deserted the Party with this decision.
At least now we will be seen to stand for something rather than being in lockstep with every idiot ranter who inhabits talk back radio. It is up to Labor supporters to also talk about this issue in the community and fight for it.
We are doing the decent thing now and for the first time in a couple of years I feel really proud and relieved that the Party has taken a gracious view of this issue.
I have a gut feeling that Labor will over time be respected for this decision even if it arrived there by default.
Run with it! There are more decent people out there than there are mongrels like Abbott and Morrison et al!
Stefan T 5151 Which Christmas was Julia going to “done” I thought it was Christmas 2010, now 2011? Next 2012? Finally Wow she is still there in her next term as PM Christmas 2013. Very good to hear your comments
This bloke is more evasive than John Hewson:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15297794
Victoria
I think abbot is sublimely confident – wouldn’t you be. He is careless because of his arrogance. Hope he makes a very damaging slip. At present he like 75% of this country assume the government will not last. This opinion is at all levels – this blog is a rare place to find determined optimistic spin. I love the way folk read body language and signs and guess at public opinion. The latter is largely incomplete because it does not factor in the legacy of June 2010, and potentially patronises public opinion. But we’ve said all this. I hope the main direction of this site is correct – will be first to congratulate.
[Perhaps a “look over there” in light of the SHY kerfuffle ?]
Yep, I reckon too.
For the first time in years the federal parliament sits on Melbourne Cup day. The race is at 3.00 pm. I think even Tony won’t try any antics that day and we’ll have a shortened QT. One of Australia’s charms is that a horse race takes precedence over running the country.
mytbw – my Branch worked within to get this decision no matter how we arrived at it but it’s better to work within for change than outside. The NSW Right has hurt many of us and there is a determination that they never be allowed to do it again.
The job ahead is going to be really hard for the PM, Bowen, members and supporters. Labor is going to be pilloried by many We’ve seen today just how the media will handle it. Malcolm Fraser, John Hewson, even Richardson, have all been crying out for it so let’s see whether they help now or just sit back and say nothing more.
Those most against onshore processing are the keep us British and white oldies (like BB’s MIL) and blue collar workers. How will they react?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-dreyfus-files/liberals-big-on-cost-small-on-action-20111013-1lmho.html
Good article as usual be Mark.
shellbell
[A regional solution involves:
(a) us increasing our intake;
(b) speeding up processing and getting people out into the community;
(c) dealing with Indonesia to assist in the catching and prosecuting of smugglers.
It should have never involved shunting people to Malaysia, whose own human rights commission repudiated the process, and whose human rights record is dubious.]
Yes indeed. There is no reason for efforts aimed at a SE Asian regional solution should not proceed. The Malaysian solution failed because of the rendition element without basic protections – nothing else.
Anyone reading this outcome as a blow to efforts to intercept and humanely process refugees further up the line are labouring under a misapprehension. However, a true regional solution with all the safeguards of the UN standards and/or those of the Migration Act is a long way off.
I note the UNHCR welcomed the defeat of the Malaysia solution this morning – but again that’s the rendition element – not the diplomatic efforts to achieve a regional outcome, which UNHCR encourages.
The great news is that we will have onshore processing in the meantime. It is a moral dream come true.
And a better pic (& slide-show) of the Queen meeting Oz celebrities prior to her tour here. Queen meets Australian celebrities
[A new report says the number of attempted suicides in communities affected by the federal intervention in the Northern Territory has doubled in four years.
Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin has released the latest Closing the Gap monitoring report on outcomes of the intervention.
It shows the number of attempted suicides and self-harm cases in remote Territory communities has risen from 109 in 2007-2008, to 229 in 2010-2011.
The report also found the number of convictions for child sexual assault remained steady between 2007 and now, at around 11 per year.]
I think it’s well time to revisit the NT Intervention. Clearly there are some aspects which are failing rather than leading to improvements.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-14/20111014-intervention-report-suicides-up/3571436
The start of something new? correspondent Mark Mardell asks the “growing” Occupy Wall Street Movement spreads to other US cities.
Given Spring-Summer-now-Autumn’s widespread political revolts, the next question must be: Will it be another British “Winter of our discontent”?
Just spent a few minutes in the car and heard John Roskam trying to push “we need a proper debate on CC, Nobel Prize winners don’t trust the IPCC, carbon dioxide is a neutral gas we breathe everyday, rubbish rubbish…”
Jon Faine called him stupid and shut him up. Sally Warhaft said “Oh no, not this again…”
I can’t believe that people who are supposed to be intelligent are still pedalling the “carbon dioxide is good for you” stupidity. They must be getting a huge income from Big Mining.
Mtbw
I would love to share your confidence that many will return to Labor. I do in any event, hope you are correct.
alan pearse type body language analysis is fascinating not. let me try at the rudd-gillard kiss. more symbolic (how and why would you probe personal intentions etc). this could be the reapproachment and exhaustion of the rudd story. it’s run its course – it had to run its course – all the souls here who trashed it were wrong, this story was out there in the public and had to be heard – we will never fully know about it, and frankly i dont think it particularly hurt the paper – imagine if rudd was not there and had left the party or any of the other options. in any case some point might have been turned. who knows? “when first we practice to deceive” – politics is a web of half truths. i think i’d prefer business as normal that a fresh rudd led election, with multiple desertions by front bench, all or nothing.
Also heard a bloke complaining that the refugees would cause a public housing shortage (or increase the ecisting shortage).
Roskam agreed with him, saying there wasn’t a house to be had in Weipa becasue they were all taken up by government-employed interpreters.
PB-ers can pick up all the non sequiturs for youselves – and the dog whistling.
BH
[Those most against onshore processing are the keep us British and white oldies (like BB’s MIL) and blue collar workers. How will they react?]
We will see! As time passes and the refugees are absorbed into the community many may see that they have absolutely nothing to fear. Others will always be resentful particularly those you describe above.
Importantly though many ALP members I know have been despairing about where the Party has been heading over the last couple of years. They now have a plan and I suspect that with onshore processing plus the climate change decision they will be out and proud about the ALP again. We have returned to our roots rather than being a shadow image of the bloody opposition.
BTW one of best leftie friends has changed – wrong time for carbon, and welfare cost of refugee families (after detention). He is lawyer, obviously repeating shop talk – it is out there. Thought he was most reliable thinker. Something within still thinks Rudd might do the trick – no further correspondence will be entered into this point of view.
Mari – 5155
Of course, Christmas 2013.
We fret about the 57-43 poll but in reality this is not a bridge to far as this stage of the game.
With further legislation such as the minerals tax done and dusted, continued roll out of the NBN, there will be, come an election in 2013, an impressive list of achievements set against, of course, the “No’ matra of the TA. In addition, two budgets. Whether these be in surplus or not it is immaterial at this point in time, though the ability to be in surplus will also be one in the eye for the conservatives continued obsession with debt.
Apart from coalescing the negative side of the Oz electorate by pandering to every gripe group, can conservative supporters actually identify one progressive policy espoused by Abbott?
Vic
I don’t know if you have ever been a member of the ALP or any other party but the ALP thanks to the NSW Right careerists have cost the ALP plenty. Members have been leaving in droves because they felt it was futile to be involved. If they can again argue confidently for a moral position as both the Carbon decision and the onshore processing decision are they feel participation will be worthwhile again. The have a reason for being once more. The Lindsay test is no more thank God!
MTBW
[We have returned to our roots rather than being a shadow image of the bloody opposition.]
Yep.When Beazley rolled over on boats I adopted an Anyone But Labor voting policy for as long as he was leader. Letting JWH’s approach become entrenched and giving it legitamacy meant we were stuck with it. It validated the baying xenophobes to whom Howard was whistling so loud. Once out of the box darned hard to put back in.
The should be They
geoffrey
[no further correspondence will be entered into this point of view.]
Use “he who cannot be named on this blog” instead of you know what 🙂
a thought each way on climate
on one way labor painful at tedious tortorous handling – from ETS on. How it has allowed distrust over June 2010 to cloud progress on this very important policy issue – where else is the public hysteria coming from? on the other hand, this might be the best of all possible worlds.
The mineral tax is another issue – listening to Clive Palmer last night on radio brought it back. Rudd mishandled, but he was under ridiculous party pressure. hopefully some progress on minerals poss – but one weeps for the money stolen from public resources in recent years and going way back. on this issue australians since menzies are dumb, dumb, dumb, like sheep on this continent
[mportantly though many ALP members I know have been despairing about where the Party has been heading over the last couple of years. They now have a plan and I suspect that with onshore processing plus the climate change decision they will be out and proud about the ALP again. We have returned to our roots rather than being a shadow image of the bloody opposition.]
mybtw – I’m please for you and angry at the same time. So we have fairweather Labor members and supporters and that’s OK. I know many worked for years for Labor but when the going got tougher that was no time to slink away and leave it to a few.
Hail to Zoomster and her ilk for never giving up.
Off the soapbox cos I have to go out for awhile but I am pleased for you. It’s difficult when one feels so let down and disillusioned.
BH
Point taken but it will get better!
Check out this placard. Graph of average incomes in the USA
Well, I have just been to the opening of my cherubs school BER hall today and what an event! I have to admit to shedding a tear or two (but don’t tell anyone, it will ruin my reputation!).
Due to parliament sitting there was very little politicisation of the event and was glad to be spared Liberals gloating for Labor deeds. Senator Chris Evans did send a moving letter which was read to all.
What really became abundantly clear to me is that the hall represents the vision, determination and tenacity of a few good people to do the right thing for our children to ensure they have everything possible to ensure their bright future.
The former Principal, who had been honoured by having the new hall named after him, related the difficulties and struggles over 12 years to try and find the funding for the much needed hall, but having to balance that with plunging the school into multimillion dollar debts for twenty years.
His relief was almost palpable as he described how the BER program offered them a much needed lifeline that presented the amazing $3m structure they now have.
Having two kids in two different levels of school, I had to hang around for two assemblies on a Tuesday to see both my kids events. Today, for the first time, every student across the entire school (1100 kids) had one assembly. Amazing. I can only imagine how much wasted resource that hands back to the school with teachers out of action for an hour rather than waste the entire DAY for something as simple as an assembly.
The raft of opportunities and new programs now available to these kids seemed an endless list and I know my two are very excited about which ones they want to get involved with.
To JG, Rudd and the entire ALP govt, I can’t thank you enough for your gift to my children.
SK
Thanks to the govt indeed. My youngest is in secondary school, and their school hall is undergoing extensions and renovations under the BER. They are almost complete and the kids are excited too. I am looking forward to the re-opening of our multi purpose hall, and am thankful to our govt.
[Check out this placard. Graph of average incomes in the USA]
NeoConservative/Neo Liberal politics and economic & fiscal policies destroythe incomes of all but the very rich!
OPT
Precisely. And that is what Abbott and his cronies have in store for us, if we allow it.
Space Kidette
[Today, for the first time, every student across the entire school (1100 kids) had one assembly]
I hope everyone around the place remembers just who to thank for the new facilities and keep remembering anytime a Coalition twit says “BER disaster”.
[Kazinho
@kazonis
Wow. How utterly pathetic was that performance by Jon Faine? Juvenile rants now commonplace on the ABC.]
victoria,
You might want to pack a few discreet tissues into your handbag. I needed mine!
OzPol Tragic
[Check out this placard. Graph of average incomes in the USA
NeoConservative/Neo Liberal politics and economic & fiscal policies destroythe incomes of all but the very rich!]
Happening here as well. On the news radio this morning. Qantas dispute, workers wanting 5.3% increase meanwhile the Qantas boss was reported to have just had a 71% pay increase.
SK@5181,
Same here.
Prior to BER , the school used to have assembly in a concrete basement , left over underfloor space.
The BER alloweed a magnificent up todate modern hall plus additional works to proceed.
I let all and sundry know , which party was responsible.
I think the BER success would be an easy thing to sell in an election campaign.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-new-hacking-shame-2370387.html
Compliments of Leroy _lynch on twitter good on you Leroy. I tweeted back why can’t Oz have such great papers as The Independent and Guardian
Better go out now supposed to have gone 1/2 hour ago
Add your vote! http://www.abc.net.au/news/thedrum/polls/
[Current Poll
1013: Does the Gillard Government have a mandate for its Clean Energy legislation?
Yes 59%
No 41%
2955 votes counted]
Victoria +SK
With these BER projects now being completed and opening do you think it will give Labor a boost when people see what they actually have ? It has got to at least counter the Coalition BER disaster mantra.
poroti
The govt need to advertise to remind people. Too many unappreciative sods out there
Mtbw. Just spoke to the person who bought my groceries felt the same
So worried about abbott,
Out and about yesterday, 5out of 6 for the pm
Try I gauge public opi on, then ask them to spread the word
Back to this mongrel zip
victoria
[poroti
The govt need to advertise to remind people. Too many unappreciative sods out there]
Yes, sadly there are too many “What have the Romans ever done for us ?” types out there.
[We have returned to our roots rather than being a shadow image of the bloody opposition.]
How odd. I’ve never thought Labor was a shadow image of the coalition.
my say
Thanks for the feedback!
confessions
The NBN
mining tax
Clean energy policy
Superannuation to 12%
plain packaging
Just to name a few differences
confessions
Lindsay Test!
poroti,
You’d have to be a pretty hardcore rusted on not to see the undoubted benefits in the schools, but really the ones that are probably most impressed are the mums with school age children. How big that demographic is I don’t know.