Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.

This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.

Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.

Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,297 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Lizzie.
    intake it that faine did not encourage it then

    Is this a good sign

    But spoke to young girl at the abc som e weeks ago, and she thought no other country
    Had a price on carbon
    And she would of been. Around news all day?

  2. Weird?

    [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Weird, still no official statement form the PM’s office about the asylum seeker processing changes. Just transcripts.
    12 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

  4. [triton
    Posted Friday, October 14, 2011 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    Gillard:

    “Good morning, Jon. And you’ve got the only prime minister.”]

    She said that because Faine started his session by saying he would be talking to the two Prime ministers of Australia: firstly Julia Gillard and then Bob Brown.

    It was really an outrageous attempt at facetiousness and the real PM handled it relatively calmly. I could never imagine Hawke putting up with such a slur without giving at least as much back to Faine. She showed far more respect for him than he did for her.

    Later Faine admitted that he got hammered with text messages complaining about his disrespect. They ran about two to one slamming against defending.

    Later Faine tried to shift responsibility by saying if politicians don’t earn respect they shouldn’t get it.

    It was one of the worst abuses I can remember on ABC radio. It’s the sort of thing that is a given with slimeballs like Hadley or Jones but should never occur on the ABC.

    The only saving grace at all was that in the interview he allowed the PM to speak with only a couple of token efforts to interrupt.

    Unfortunately I missed part of the following Brown interview. I’d like to think that Brown rebuked him over this.

    If David’s around, it may well be worthy of a complaint.

  5. SK

    Thanks.Well I reckon a pretty large demographic and add to that their/your aquaintences to whom the BER buildings will get a mention. They will at least be able to say “Oh no it’s Not !” should anyone spout the shockjock Coalition BER bulldust. Should be quite a number of people out there spreading some good words to help counter the tide of toxic sludge pouring forth from elsewhere.

  6. [Lindsay Test!]

    The only time Labor has looked like a shadow of the coalition on boats is when Rudd me too’d Howard on turning boats around at sea during the 2007 election campaign.

  8. listened to Fran Kelly this morning with her panel of:

    Paul Bongiorno – TEN
    Peter Hartcher – SMH
    Jennifer Hewitt – Australian

    it was quite remarkable that one of these people interspered every answer, no matter what the topic, with “bad government”, “lost its way”, “string of failed policies”. Completely biased, single minded and partisan anti ALP.

    The other two were relatively balanced, in trying at least to mention the pros and cons of both parties positions on the various issues. Fran played a straight bat just asking the questions in turn.

  9. Poroti,

    Thinking about it, I know the local builders here, many of whom looked like they were going to go bust, were kept going by the BER halls built in the Gold Coast area. They may also look on it positively.

  12. [victoria
    Posted Friday, October 14, 2011 at 11:17 am | Permalink
    Mtbw

    I would love to share your confidence that many will return to Labor. I do in any event, hope you are correct.]

    We will soon know if that’s true or not. Can’t see it myself.

  13. I noticed that Faine, at the end of the interview, noted that Bob Brown, “Leader of the Greens”, would be on next, not “the other Prime Minister”.

    I think he realised he’d been admonished enough.

  15. victoria:

    I think it’s fair to say the PM has outflanked Abbott on boats. Ever since the govt decided to stare them down by defending the Malaysia deal and trying to get a legislative fix for the High Court ruling (remember that QT when the govt hammered the opposition over boats?), the coalition have been silent on the issue. At least two boats arrived since the HC decision, and Morrison has been nowhere to be seen.

    Perhaps Gillard has learned the lesson Rudd never did: stand up to the coalition and take them head on.

  17. There is another side to the BER story. This is mine;

    I drive a concrete agitator truck. Well I did until I got crook and had to go on sick leave. When the GFC first hit our work dried up practically overnight. For about 2 to 3 months we basically sat in the smoko room and did nothing. When the BER got into full swing we started delivering concrete to schools. Over the next 18 mths I think we did about 6 different schools in our area and they were all pretty big pours. The school jobs kept us going. As concrete is generally the first stage of building the timing was perfect for us. In fact 9 company drivers and 2 subcontractors were all kept in work. Not mention the architects, tradies and the myriad of suppliers who combine to put up a building.

    The only thing that the GFC cost me was about 3 mths of lost overtime. A pretty small price to pay. I know of 11 men with families who understand the impact of the BER and are pretty happy that we have a Govt who can see, understand and, crucially, paint a bigger picture. Why the fools, mountebanks, ne’er do wells and blithering idiots in the media can’t is as disappionting as it is despairing.

  19. Victoria – yes. I wondered, of course, if it is a fake. I’ve seen no suggestion of that on the internet, and I note that he seems to be smoking a pretty fat cigar (which I assume he would only be given before he was shot)

  20. [Weird, still no official statement form the PM’s office about the asylum seeker processing changes. Just transcripts]
    Well the PM did tell caucus yesterday that her Malaysian Solution was the best policy and it is still Labor policy. That is why she has it on the shelf just waiting for a call from Tone to give it the go ahead.

    Until Labor say off shore is dead and buried instead of having a bob each way I can’t see that rush of support from strays returning to the fold.

  22. Ian,

    Thanks for the insight, my hubby plays footy and nearly all the guys that were playing with him are tradies, builders and subbies and things were looking very grim for a few of them. A few of them packed up and went elsewhere.

    When I hear people actually say that the GFC didn’t happen, I both cheer the success of the ALP for giving us such a soft landing, and despair because for far too many, if it ain’t happening to them, it ain’t happening.

  24. [Paul Bongiorno – TEN
    Peter Hartcher – SMH
    Jennifer Hewitt – Australian

    it was quite remarkable that one of these people interspered every answer, no matter what the topic, with “bad government”, “lost its way”, “string of failed policies”. Completely biased, single minded and partisan anti ALP.]

    Sprocket

    That surprises me to hear Paul Bongiorno acting like taht. Whenever I catch 10 news he is always fair and mostly pro Julia and Labor. He looks really sad when he has to report any bad news story for labor

  26. victoria
    One of the, if not THE main reason why I cooled on Labor was because of their competition with the Fibs on who could go lower on AS.
    (that and dumping Kev of course 😆 )

  30. I heard a fair bit of Faine this morning. I missed most of Roskam, though by the sounds of what they were saying at the end it had been quite “lively” (which I take to mean Roskam acted like a dick in his quest for attention), and I also missed the PM and Bob Brown and Barnaby. So what I heard was mainly feedback from listeners.

    I got the distinct impression Faine was quite happy with the ruckus he caused. He invited more feedback, he mentioned the SMS responses. There was no suggestion that he might change his behaviour because of the criticism from callers. Overall, despite the guests and the topics, the first hour was all about Faine, the second hour all about Roskam.

    He’d love to read all these enraged emails. He’s eliciting responses. The best email to write, if you’re going to write one, needs to circumvent all that. Tell him there’s no real differentiation between his product and Neil Mitchell’s any more, so his program is redundant. From now on if you want to be insulted you’ll go to 3AW – after all, they do it so much better than Faine ever can.

    That’s what I did with 7.30. I didn’t stop watching because it made me angry. It just wasn’t of any use to me any more. I couldn’t learn anything from that half hour that wasn’t available on commercial stations. They can never grab that audience, and I can’t for the life of me understand why they’re trying.

    I don’t listen to Faine all that much, so my turning off won’t make a great difference. The only reason any ABC listener is going to stick with a program is if it provides useful information or informed opinion. I can’t see any point to the station otherwise.

    If the ABC ever gets about to following it’s charter

  33. Ian 5217

    [There is another side to the BER story. This is mine;

    I drive a concrete agitator truck. Well I did until I got crook and had to go on sick leave. When the GFC first hit our work dried up practically overnight. For about 2 to 3 months we basically sat in the smoko room and did nothing. When the BER got into full swing we started delivering concrete to schools………..Why the fools, mountebanks, ne’er do wells and blithering idiots in the media can’t is as disappionting as it is despairing.]

    Thank you very much for your story. Having worked in the building game I know how quickly things can go bad in a downturn. It is a great shame the MSM has not seen fit to give voice to people like you on the BER.After all keeping guys like you going was the whole point of the BER. The buildings were just a “bonus”. Hope you will be back on deck soon 🙂

  34. I will never cool on labor, if you prefer no health cover””’selling of medic are

    No pbs, then go for it

    But most,, labor people see lots of policies not one man and two policies
    Mine is the big picture

  35. That last bit:

    If the ABC ever gets around to following its charter, I’ll probably start watching and listening again. But I’ll never watch or listen purely to make myself mad. No point.

  36. [ When I hear people actually say that the GFC didn’t happen, I both cheer the success of the ALP for giving us such a soft landing, and despair because for far too many, if it ain’t happening to them, it ain’t happening.]

    Tanya Pilbersek put it best. If you dodge the bullet, you don’t feel it.

  37. [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Is 2GB still doing the continuous call on the death of democracy and the fascism of Big Refugee?
    ]

  38. Aguirre

    I am with you on this. Precisely my reason for no longer listening to Faine or the 7.30 report. Why bother? I did not gain any insight from it anymore. It is their job to inform.

  39. I hadn’t realized u where joking vera

    Just bei g yourself about the party
    That i love and TRUST to take care of me my family and my grandchildren

  40. Also my say if I needed something explained to me as you so condesendingly suggest I think you’d be the last one I asked.
    getting sick of your nasty jibes everytime I make a post by the way
    bullying people on PB because you know every one will leap to poor my say’s defense if any one returns your “compliments” just won’t work with me

  41. [SteveCannane Steve Cannane
    Put McCaw in a chaff bag? RT @danilic: RT @smh: Ha! Alan Jones tells the Wallabies how to win at Eden Park: bit.ly/ntdlXd
    ]

  43. vera

    [victoria
    One of the, if not THE main reason why I cooled on Labor was because of their competition with the Fibs on who could go lower on AS.
    (that and dumping Kev of course ) ]
    Join the club and Shh dont mention Mr [censored] [censored] 😉

  44. [ If the ABC ever gets around to following its charter, I’ll probably start watching and listening again. But I’ll never watch or listen purely to make myself mad. No point.]

    Agreed Aguirre. I gave 7:30 the flick – far too tabloid since KOB left. I only tune it to watch Clarke and Dawe.

    ABC1 is bleeding audience share, and shows like 7:30 and the dud Crownies are at the forefront of its problems.

    The ABC’s science reporting is still better than the commercial networks. Then again, they set the bar very low.

  46. [If the ABC ever gets around to following its charter, I’ll probably start watching and listening again. But I’ll never watch or listen purely to make myself mad. No point.]

    Reading the transcript of the interview between Combet and Uhlmann was astounded at the questions Uhlmann put to the minister.

    The ABC is no longer about journalism, it’s now all about cheap gotchas and smarmy News ltd talking points.

  47. [ABC1 is bleeding audience share, and shows like 7:30 and the dud Crownies are at the forefront of its problems.]

    How’s qanda doing? I no longer watch it: Jerry Springer for elites.

  49. [I think he realised he’d been admonished enough.]

    By the PM, yes, BB. He was afraid to mention it again to her, but he kept going when she’d gone, calling Brown a “Clayton’s” PM.

  50. Paroti I am surprised u are a one issue re policy person

    The big thing s. hecs, pbs, ect dont worry you, the lose off ect I never cool on the party that cares .
    the
    Malaysian po.icy in another way actually protection g lives
    Stop g boats and not giving abbott publicity

    I would be still happy with it actually I worry about all the refugees in malaysia that may never find a home , would actually ‘look after them first

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