Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.

This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.

Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.

Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,297 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. confessions

    He has been so far. Hope he is spot on with respect to his other musings, especially that Abbott will never be PM

  2. Confessions

    He caved in because he’s a spineless spoilt bully. All his life he’s had things given to him, when things don’t go his way he throws a tantrum until he gets what he wants. He’s met his match in Gillard, make no mistake, she’s a brawler with a lot of mongrel in her. She’s had to fight and use her brains all her life, which is what she’s doing right now. Abbott’s merely an oversized brat.

    Like all bullies Abbott knows when he’s met his match. His ludicrous behaviour – tripping over his words in QT, giggling at the nutjob protestors – shows how much trouble he knows he’s in. Boy does he know it.

  6. http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/uk-press-body-may-probe-wsj-circulation-20111014-1lnrg.html

    [UK press body may probe WSJ circulation
    October 14, 2011 – 8:09AM
    AFP

    A British media body says it may investigate the Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal Europe amid a row over circulation figures that led to the resignation of the paper’s publisher.

    Andrew Langhoff, managing director of Dow Jones & Co in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, stepped down this week following claims that he pushed for stories that favoured a firm with which the paper had a circulation deal.]

    More in the article

  7. Confessions

    Abbott did all that he knows – said no as we all knew he would.

    A regional solution involves:

    (a) us increasing our intake;
    (b) speeding up processing and getting people out into the community;
    (c) dealing with Indonesia to assist in the catching and prosecuting of smugglers.

    It should have never involved shunting people to Malaysia, whose own human rights commission repudiated the process, and whose human rights record is dubious (I hope Burgey asks PJK what he thinks about the Malaysian relocation process during the Kerry O’Brien interview).

    It should not be forgotten either that the proposed amendments:

    (a) open the door for Nauru to be restarted;
    (b) provided in terms for natural justice to be denied to AS when the minister was exercising a damn near unfettered power to shunt people anywhere he/she liked.

    Maybe Abbott has been wedged – I doubt it – but Bowen is the fall guy in all this which is a shame.

  8. Son of foro:

    We’ve been saying this about Abbott for ages now. Why is it taking journalists, who see and talk to him every day so long to arrive at the same conclusions?

  10. To me it seems the approach of the government is to ease the country into on shore processing slowly instead of the big bang approach.

    AS’s will be able to apply for bridging visas and that will be decided on a case by case basis. Once it starts happening and Australians see that AS do not have two heads and three tails and make a positive contribution to this country then community release will be ramped up.

    After years of AS bashing and scare campaigns by Howard and co. I think this has to be the way to go. One step at a time. Instead of going cold turkey just ease Australians off fear and uncertainty and promote trust and acceptance through real world experience.

    Just like Carbon pricing let people live the experience of AS ‘s in the community. The fear will die.

  11. Enjoying the exchanges between Elder and Maiden on twitter

    [Andrew Elder
    @awelder
    @samanthamaiden You can keep the gold star, your boss appreciates that quality. So, when is Stephen Smith making his move? Go to it, Scoop!]

  12. News Ltd & Commercial radio are backing Abbott all the way to the next election – why he gets such soft treatment by the media.

  13. shellbell:

    The agreement with Malaysia wasn’t perfect by any stretch. But it was a start. The govt was able to get an arrangement in place with Malaysia – that’s a big deal, and I reckon if it had been able to be implemented, would’ve paved the way to something similar with Indonesia.

  15. [The Victorian MP Anna Burke told colleagues she would abstain from voting should the bill be brought on.]
    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-australia-solution-20111013-1ln9e.html#ixzz1ahodpUWe

    Yes! Lobbying your local MP does pay off. I suggested to her that if she wanted my vote at the next election she needed to either cross the floor or abstain. Given the demographics of Chisholm, I can only assume I was not alone in conveying this sentiment.

    Putting aside her political self-interest for re-election, I have, at last, a local federal MP who has some fortitude and is prepared to stand up for her personal convictions.

    I will again be conveying my support to her for her stance 🙂

  18. BH(5094) I had never heard that saying before, was very impressed by your wit, but you are right they have to get the pithy comments going over and over

  19. [mishaschubert Misha Schubert
    Faine has a second go branding Bob Brown “the other PM” towards the end of the interview. “It’s just a stupid description,” the PM retorts.
    14 minutes ago]

    In response to tip off by Misha & latika on the Faine interview, I sent a message…

    [Leroy_Lynch Leroy
    @
    @774melbourne Jon “2 PMs” Faine is wanker of the year. A smarmy disrespectful git passing himself as centrist. @mishaschubert @latikambourke
    9 minutes ago ]

    Mike Kelly MP sent a seperate reply to Misha…

    [MikeKellyMP Mike Kelly MP
    @
    @mishaschubert & guess what? It is a stupid description.
    5 minutes ago]

    She replied to both of us…

    [@mishaschubert
    Misha Schubert
    @MikeKellyMP @Leroy_Lynch yep.
    3 minutes ago]

  21. victoria

    [my say

    I am considering sending an email. I need to reflect on what I want to say to him]

    We need Bushfire Bill to write something to send him 🙂

  24. [Faine has a second go branding Bob Brown “the other PM”]

    Is Faine a shockjock? I always thought he was an ABC presenter???

  26. [News Ltd & Commercial radio are backing Abbott all the way to the next election – why he gets such soft treatment by the media.]

    You only just worked that out Evan ?

  27. Thanks for the link to Faine’s interview with the PM. Loved the “John, I can tell you are trying to interrupt me ….” and then talking through him and noting all her Govt’s achievements to date.

    Bowen should have used the same line with Tony Jones

  28. Victoria

    I think he knows he’s met his match, for sure. He knows more than anyone that he’s never had to lift a finger for anything his whole life. Look at the drive of people like Howard, Hawke and now Gillard and Albo – they’re defined by having to fight for everything they get. Howard, for all his faults, never had the need to be seen driving trucks and making concrete and riding horses. He just had his trackie and a determination never to let Costello anywhere near the top job!

    Confessions

    I stopped trying to understand Australian journalists about two years ago. My life is much more serene now.

  30. Caller to John Roskam: “If the Greens were running the country we’d have..” (list of objectionable Greens policies) “Would you care to comment?”

  31. [Bowen should have used the same line with Tony Jones]

    BH, completely forgot about that interview, saw it in the early hours of the morning. Tony looked like he wanted to have a fist fight with Bowen – wouldn’t let him finish a single sentence

  33. victoria:

    Ruddstoration will continue to be with us so long as a) there is a parliamentary press gallery, and b) Rudd remains in Parliament. The ‘Costello to challenge’ obsession only ended once Cossie announced his retirement from politics. I imagine it will be the same with Rudd.

  34. peg

    wasn’t that dishonest of you? Did you tell her you voted Green at the last election, and put the Libs second? Or did you say ‘I’ve been a labor voter all my life, but…’

    And will you vote for her at the next election? And if so, doesn’t that conflict with your membership of the Greens?

    Hypocrisy, much?

  35. [He just had his trackie]

    All I can say is thank goodness Abbott has ditched the speedos! And it feels like ages since we’ve seen him in lycra on his bike as well.

  36. [samanthamaiden samanthamaiden
    Anyone explain how this Greens $1 per spin low intensity plan is new ? Allowing pubs to do that instead of mand pre-commit is Wilkie policy.]

    [RichardDiNatale Richard Di Natale
    Press conf on now with @SenatorBobBrown with our plan to address problem gambling twitpic.com/6zvn3k]

    [samanthamaiden samanthamaiden
    @
    @RichardDiNatale Option of $1 per spin with no mandatory pre commitment card is already government and Wilkie proposal.]

    Looks like the Greens have plagiarised Wilkie’s policy and are trying to present it as their own.

  37. [Tony looked like he wanted to have a fist fight with Bowen – wouldn’t let him finish a single sentence]

    George – I watched it because I missed the news bulletins earlier. I really wanted to hear Bowen’s explanations but Jones was too busy wallowing in his own ‘celebrity’. The constant interruptions were appalling and I wanted Bowen to biff him. I was looking for lots of policy information – didn’t get much out of it other than Jones annoying the heck out of me.

    Trioli did interrupt Abbott a fair bit this morning but there was no detail from Tony that I wanted. I knew his only reply to everything would be ‘she can have Nauru within 24 hours’ and, of course, it was – plus the stupid grin and silence for a few seconds which comes when he doesn’t like a question.

  40. BH

    [I’d rather hear Labor say that the High Court changed everything so this is our decision and then sell it the way Fraser did with the Vietnamese people.]

    I am with you! Own the decision and run hard with it. No equivocation!

  41. confessions

    [Looks like the Greens have plagiarised Wilkie’s policy and are trying to present it as their own.]
    Weeks ago I heard some guy on the radio (Wilkie?) explaining that $1 spin ones were to be exempt in the current legislation.

  42. [timhollo timhollo
    @
    @samanthamaiden It was Greens policy when Wilkie was a member of the Greens, actually 😉 But, yes, it’s not ‘new’, just re-introduced.]

  43. [I still cannot believe that Abbott buckled under pressure when the govt stood up to him – and over an issue the coalition are supposed to own. I mean, his fans in the media tell us almost every day what a ferocious fighter and brawler he is. In the end he caved in like a souffle.]

    Confessions, what has Abbott caved in on?

  44. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Greens Leader Bob Brown describes his $1 bet limit scheme is the ‘circuit breaker’ in the stalemate over pokies, which could threaten Govt.]

    There is a stalemate over pokies? How does Brown arrive at that?

  45. [Own the decision and run hard with it. No equivocation!]

    mytbw – that’s all they need to remember. No turning back apart from working hard with our neighbours to solve the problems.

  46. poroti:

    Looks like the Greens are proposing $1 bet limits instead of mandatory pre-commitment.

    Does this mean the Greens will oppose Wilkie’s bill?

  48. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Wilkie also notes “Greens’ preparedness to ultimately support the introduction of mandatory pre-commitment on high-intensity machines.’’]

  49. Thanks for the link to the Faine/Gillard interview Leroy. I thought she did him like a dinner. I particularly liked the way she would not let him interrupt her. That is a skill she has learned, of necessity, since she became PM. She is a very good listener and I used to notice when she was the deputy leader that whenever anyone rudely tried to talk over her she would stop and listen. But not any more.

    Go Julia and keep kicking arse.

  50. confessions

    [poroti:

    Looks like the Greens are proposing $1 bet limits instead of mandatory pre-commitment.

    Does this mean the Greens will oppose Wilkie’s bill?]
    Might be just some noise making so as to sound relavent and in the game. Can’t see them knocking this on the head. But then it is the Greens and they can head off in quite unexpected directions at times. Perhaps a “look over there” in light of the SHY kerfuffle ?

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