Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining the results of the last two weekends’ polling, adds to a picture of Labor’s slight gains over the previous month or two being reversed. The Coalition has picked up two points on the primary vote directly at Labor’s expense, with the Coalition on 49.5 per cent and Labor on 32.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 12 per cent. On respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5; on the previous election measure it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.

I’ve had quite a lot to say about the persistent gap between Morgan’s two two-party preferred measure, which is a fairly recent phenomenon. The chart below shows how Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has tracked in the three poll series that publish results for both measures, namely Morgan’s frequent face-to-face polls, their less frequent phone polls, and the monthly Nielsen results. All three began the year more or less in the territory of the 2010 election result, which delivered Labor 65.8 per cent of all non-major party preferences.

Up to a month ago, all three seemed to agree that this had declined by about 10 per cent. Since then, we’ve seen individual Nielsen and Morgan phone poll results (which may prove to be aberrations) showing a revesal of that trend, while Morgan face-to-face has the Labor share lower than ever. Morgan face-to-face has also been consistent in giving Labor the lowest share of the three series throughout this year. I should note as always that the previous election measure has a better track record for predicting the election result in any case.

In other poll news, a fortnightly Port Macquarie-based publication called The Port Paper has published results from an automated phone poll conducted by ReachTEL in Rob Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne showing support for Rob Oakeshott at just 14.8 per cent, against 55.3 per cent for the Coalition and 17 per cent for Labor. This has raised eyebrows on a number of counts. Firstly, the question on voting intention was the last of three put to respondents, after attitudinal questions on carbon tax and pokies reforms (both of which were strongly opposed), which is commonly recognised in the polling caper as the wrong way to get an accurate response. Secondly, the principals behind The Port Paper are very strongly associated with the Nationals. And thirdly, Bernard Keane in Crikey today relates that ReachTEL “proudly announced it was an associate member of Clubs Qld, which has this year been campaigning aggressively against the Andrew Wilkie-led poker machine reform push. The Port Paper story fails to disclose that.”

The Port Paper also published a poll from the corresponding state electorate of Port Macquarie before the election in March, and while it was not brilliantly accurate, its errors were not in a direction that would inspire doubts about its motives. The vote for soon-to-be-defeated independent incumbent Peter Besseling was about right (34 per cent, compared with 36.5 per cent at the election), but the Nationals were too low (40 per cent against 52.2 per cent) and Labor too high (14 per cent against 5.7 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,840 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  2. [Labor after the next election could very much be reduced to a party of principally the Southern states(VIC, TAS, SA).]

    Civil War Time 😆

    WA, QLD, NT, NSW vs TAS, VIC, SA, ACT??

  3. [Rudd was replaced for no reason, except that little cabal wanted power, and wanted it now. Thus Labor treated the public with utter contempt. And are being punished for it now]

    I thought gough slayed the “faceless men dragon”

    pls fibs, come up with something new

  4. [that is not in doubt]

    It is with me. He deliberately leaked against a Labor govt, ran interference on the govt when it was starting to gain momentum, pursued his own career objectives ahead of those of the govt in which he is serving, and made it clear he wasn’t interested in pursuing policies which he disagreed with. If being a minister is so onerous, why hang around?

    And I think it’s fair enough to criticise his conduct, despite the childish wailing of the Rudd Cult.

  5. ShowsOn,
    [
    This ain’t Jo’s site – it’s the Facebook page

    What!? I thought in the interest of sanity, Mark Zuckerberg would’ve personally banned you from Facebook. ]]

    Frank’s working hard for his red card on Facebook! 😉

  6. Thomas Paine: The two great myths of the last Federal election, perpetrated by the anti-Rudd commentariat on PB:
    1. Gillard’s result in WA was a triumph – yep, all 3 seats…….Rudd supposedly was going to lose even Fremantle and Perth.
    2. Julia saved marginal seats in QLD that Rudd would have lost(if he’d still been PM).

    In reality…………Labor under either leader was never going to perform that well in WA(Labor on the nose there), and QLD seats like Forde and Bonner and Brisbane would have been held if Rudd had still been in the top job.

  13. [still waiting for U to provide names to back up your slur]

    You’ll be waiting a long time. Meanwhile, there’s also this lie which evan/thornleigh can’t and won’t substantiate:

    [The two great myths of the last Federal election, perpetrated by the anti-Rudd commentariat on PB:
    1. Gillard’s result in WA was a triumph – yep, all 3 seats…….Rudd supposedly was going to lose even Fremantle and Perth.
    2. Julia saved marginal seats in QLD that Rudd would have lost(if he’d still been PM). ]

  14. [The other worrying aspect will be how long Qld holds a grudge about this. I may sound mad but I think Labor is going to struggle a bit in Qld for quite a long time.]

    The systemic acute consequences of the back stabbing of Rudd for Labor nationally will be the subject of some erstwhile political history writer no doubt. Maybe they will call it…’When Labor died’

  16. lefty e..talking of lunatics have a look at this post…very odd very very odd

    [Gary Sparrow
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    Labor after the next election could very much be reduced to a party of principally the Southern states(VIC, TAS, SA).

    Civil War Time 😆

    WA, QLD, NT, NSW vs TAS, VIC, SA, ACT??]

  19. [lefty e..talking of lunatics have a look at this post…very odd very very odd]

    You obviously have no sense of humour 😆

    [Fibs, barely out of nappies, and still shitters]

    Dont think that title would get past the censors Gussy.

  20. If Mr Abbott did not say what Mr Windsor says he did then Mr Abbott can simply make a parliamentary statement to that effect. I await it with bated breath.

  21. [“I remember him saying ‘Tony, I would do anything for this job. The only thing I wouldn’t do is sell my arse, but I’d have to give serious thought to it’,” Mr Windsor told Fairfax media.

    But Mr Abbott has strongly denied that he ever made the statement.

    “I don’t speak like that. People who know me know that I don’t speak like that,” he said.]

    LOL. Abbott infamously uses sexist and homophobic language, and so it’s entirely plausible he would use such terms with the independents as has been reported. Besides, why would Windsor lie? It’s far more believable that Abbott would lie rather than Windsor.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-28/abbott-rejects-call-about-selling-arse/2859090

  23. Meanwhile as the Labor movement self destructs…….those distemper dogs at it again..

    [It is about to get worse as elements of the Australian Workers’ Union seek to settle up with Thomson’s accusers by demonstrating that Gillard herself was implicated, albeit unknowingly, in a major union fraud of her own before she entered parliament.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/pm-a-lost-cause-for-warring-unions/story-e6frgd0x-1226124001057

    Lift up a rock….it was a wonder Rudd lasted as long as he did given the roaches, lice and ticks running around in Labor’s dark corners.

  25. @TP your forgetting that Rudd was popular earlier before overtaking previous Labor Leader, and Gillard was popular before taking over as Labor Leader, it’s called a revolving door.

  26. Galaxy bring out the nutters hey, well I seem to remember predicting that the last election would be desperately close when when the general consensus on this site was that Lsbor would romp home, so I will back my political judgement against your naivety any time buddy

  27. And let’s not forget TP’s marvellous political analytical skills.
    [Thomas Paine
    Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
    It would be grossly unfair if Rudd got dumped. Then again I don’t think politics is anything to do with fair. No room for sentiment, just win and lose.

    Thomas Paine
    Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
    Gillard would suffer very little backlash from the electorate for replacing Rudd. Remember the media has been running a long campaign about how bad Rudd is. People will just shrug and see it as a natural event.

    Thomas Paine
    Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 11:00 pm | Permalink
    I imagine people already have a strong impression of who Gillard is as a person (as they did with Rudd through his tv appearances before the last eletion) so it will be quite difficult to damage that. I am sure they will find / attempt numerous things to attack Gillard, as they would Rudd.

    Thomas Paine
    Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 11:46 pm | Permalink
    Rudd really needs to now look at the bigger picture.
    should not forget that Rudd got rid of Beazley as Keating got rid of Hawke as well, it happens, it is often unfair

    Thomas Paine
    Posted Thursday, June 24, 2010 at 12:41 am | Permalink
    The party is greater than one person. I am quite fond of Rudd and believe he has done a solid job and would do an even better job in further term. But events are as they are, that is politics. I assume there is a real good reason for this move.
    Anyhow, Gillard has my 100% support as well as would whoever replaced her if they were of sufficient quality.
    Rudd has to come out in enthusiastic support of Gillard for the party and the greater cause .]

    Thankyou to dave for compiling these quotes.

  30. [Galaxy bring out the nutters hey, well I seem to remember predicting that the last election would be desperately close when when the general consensus on this site was that Lsbor would romp home, so I will back my political judgement against your naivety any time buddy]
    By the time of the election campaign not too many were predicting Labor would romp home. In fact some were predicting a loss.

  32. [PEDRO

    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    Galaxy bring out the nutters hey, well I seem to remember predicting that the last election would be desperately close when when the general consensus on this site was that Lsbor would romp home, so I will back my political judgement against your naivety any time buddy
    ]

    erm I said it was going to be very close on the day of the election.

    Try Again.

  34. Apparently Glenn Milne knows that the dirt covered shovel as left at exactly 3.30am. Unfortunately he does not say how as he is then too busy putting himself at the centre of a story in which he makes it clear JG did nothing wrong.

  36. [gusface

    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 12:40 am | Permalink

    actually

    it would be tres hard to ban the owner of the site

    ]

    Unless pieces of paper signed by learned people sitting in certain buildings arrive at his doorstep 🙂

  37. [Lift up a rock….it was a wonder Rudd lasted as long as he did given the roaches, lice and ticks running around in Labor’s dark corners.]
    YEAH THOMAS PAINE I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING YOU WRITE, IN FACT IT IS OBVIOUS TO ME THAT TRUE LABOR SUPPORTERS SHOULD VOTE LIBERAL.

    PEOPLE THAT ACTUALLY SUPPORT LABOR AND KEVIN RUDD AND JESUS CHRIST WILL VOTE LIBERAL AND THE NEXT ELECTION. IF YOU VOTE LABOR THEN THAT MEANS YOU DON’T ACTUALLY SUPPORT LABOR. IF YOU THINK JULIA GILLARD IS A GOOD PRIME MINISTER WHO IS DOING A GOOD JOB IN TRYING CIRCUMSTANCES, THEN THAT MEANS YOU ARE ACTUALLY A SUPPORTER OF THE LIBERAL PARTY, THEREFORE YOU SHOULD VOTE LABOR. TRUE LABOR PEOPLE AND SUPPORTERS OF KEVIN RUDD WILL BE VOTING LIBERAL.

  46. [ShowsOn, I hold no brief for TP, but I don’t quite think that’s what he was saying.]
    Sorry, I lost interest in what he was saying about a year ago.

  50. Its interesting when someone actually looks at the polls what comes out isn’t it?

    http://andrewcatsaras.blogspot.com/

    [The ALP and Julia Gillard are clearly travelling poorly according to the polling data.

    However this is not unique in Australian politics, yet governments who were travelling just as poorly were returned at the next election.

    To suggest the Coalition is well placed is correct, and to suggest it is preferable to be in its position than the ALP’s is unremarkable, but to suggest the election result is all over would be premature.]

    The whole posting is well worth a read and i think if more people did they would be a tad more chill about the politics of the moment.

    When look at whats being said by people like Windsor and Wilke right now i really dont think that there is much if any chance that the 3 critical Indies are going to jump ship and that’s still pretty much the only way there is going to be a change in govt.

    Even if things went totally pear shaped re: Thomson, (and that’s looking doubtful at best from a Fiberal perspective) it looks like it’ll take a year or so to get to the point where he has to leave parliament.

    The stuff that dah Bolta has been spruiking?? Recycling of something old, been there before.

    And the idea that the current Govt members and Indies are going to cross the floor on Carbon Price? Fiberal wet dream is all. Really, by this stage, every ALP member, AND Windsor, Oakeshotte, Wilke and Brandt are effectivley signed up to the long game that the PM started at the beginning of 2011. Their ONLY chance of re-election in 2013 is to stay the course, get the legislative program they outlined through and in place, and hope that by 2013 people have seen that much of the opposition to that program was based on FUD, lies and rank political opportunism.

    If they any waver now they will scuttle the long game, likely NOT save their own seats anyway if they are very marginal, and DEFINITELY be in opposition earlier than they need to be. And do any of them REALLY want that??

    I liked the line i saw from the PM when i watched Insiders today. 185 pieces of legislation passed, and 22 in the last two weeks.

    The Indies and Greens must know that in the current parliament, with this PM, they are able to influence each and every one of those pieces of legislation, and where they can bring in real benefits for their electorates. They have real influence now that they would not have if Abbott was PM and wasting everyone’s time trying to engineer a new election for both houses. Are they going to give that up just because the Fib/Nats are making noise and the nutter truckers tooting their horns?? Nup.

    ALP /Indies/Greens will i think hold things together long enough to get Carbon Price / MRRT through. Post October and the Telstra vote NBN will crank up. They are the biggies in terms of legislation this year.

    Pokies pre-commitment late this year, early 2012?? National Disability Insurance Scheme planning and consultation bubbling along through 2012 maybe so there is an opportunity for some bipartisanship there? You can bet the Indies will want to be seen to be involved in that one!!!! I reckon there is actually enough around for the Govt to have a pretty good program going on right up to the next election actually.

    The cherry on top would be a surplus in 2012 vs the Fibs $70 Bill in cuts. 🙂

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