Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor losing the ground it gained in last week’s result: their primary vote has dropped a point to 31 per cent, with the Coalition up one to 49 per cent, the Greens steady on 11 per cent and two-party preferred out from 55-45 to 56-44. Furthermore:

• Little change has been recorded on the carbon tax since an improved result a fortnight ago: approval is steady on 39 per cent and disapproval up two to 51 per cent. Exactly half of all respondents believe that Tony Abbott either doesn’t believe in or doesn’t care about climate change.

• The government’s “Malaysia solution” on asylum seekers has suffered a sharp decline in popularity since June 16: support is down nine points to 31 per cent and opposition up 14 to 53 per cent.

• “Trust in organisations to handle personal information” runs, from highest to lowest, the medical profession, banks, governments,Australian companies, online companies, political parties, foreign companies and the media.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,376 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Exactly half of all respondents believe that Tony Abbott either doesn’t believe in or doesn’t care about climate change.]

    now thats a good start

  3. And obviously more than half of the respondents don’t believe or care about climate change as well – that’s why Tony’s winning.

  6. i agree with this analysis. That is why Turnbull had better grow a spine and shake up the coalition on their commitment to climate policy.

    [gordongraham I’d say that the electorate’s perception of Tony Abbott’s climate change views is exactly where he’d want them for now #auspol
    1 minute ago]

  7. Victoria
    Its the “me” generation not the “we” generation. It takes a calamity for people to pull togethor.

  8. al palster

    It is not just an affliction of the young. There are so many people in their forties and fifties who are self absorbed about themselves. It is quite disheartening really.

  12. Actually Victoria, I think the electorates perceptions of Abbott on climate change are largely due to the ALP repeatedly saying he’s a climate change denier.

    I think this is a colossally stupid thing to do. They should say he accepts the science for two reasons (there are probably more):

    1. It turns the issue from a subjective leadership issue to an objective policy issue (that’s the last thing Abbott wants)

    2. It causes issues with Abbott’s base who don’t believe in the science of climate change

  13. Victoria
    [It is not just an affliction of the young. There are so many people in their forties and fifties who are self absorbed about themselves. It is quite disheartening really.]
    Ain’t that the truth!

  14. [Even without all the details, several congressmen have blasted the tentative deal. Head of the Democratic Black Caucus Emanuel Cleaver called it a “sugar coated Satan sandwich”.]
    From today’s Crikey.

  15. [Anna Bligh looking and sounding Premierial.]
    Good thing she’s Premier then…

    [Exactly half of all respondents believe that Tony Abbott either doesn’t believe in or doesn’t care about climate change.]
    This is the bit of those numbers that disturbs me. The naysayers have been frighteningly successful with no scientific basis in their arguments. I just cannot bring myself to believe 1/2 the country does not care about climate change (I draw the long bow based on the fact that the majority (a) want to vote for TA and (b) indicate the carbon price/climate change is somewhat or less important). I need to think about it more, but to my eyes the polls reflect either a laziness/disinterest or a transferred disagreement with something that the Govt and the carbon price are de facto targets for.

  17. I watched a little of the movie Invictus last night. Morgan Freeman plays the part of Nelson Mandela. The story revolves around the Rugby World Cup of 1995. Did not watch much of it, but saw the part where Mandela was talking with his aide. His aide was reminding him that the majority of SA people did not support the Rugby team at the time etc. Mandela Responded wtte that it was his job as leader to tell the people why they were wrong to feel this way. As leader he had to show the people why. I drew a parallel to what our PM’s job is with respect to the climate policy, mining tax and asylum seeker issues.

  18. [I think this is a colossally stupid thing to do. They should say he accepts the science for two reasons (there are probably more):

    1. It turns the issue from a subjective leadership issue to an objective policy issue (that’s the last thing Abbott wants)

    2. It causes issues with Abbott’s base who don’t believe in the science of climate change]

    Totally agree, Spur. Labor should keep pushing his 5% target and point out exactly how it will be unattainable. Call him LOTO and not TA, too

  19. spur212

    True, but the govt has now been saying that the coalition also have a policy to cut emissions by 5%. It will cost taxpayers not the polluters, and it wont work. therefore it will be a colossal waste of taxpayer funds.

  20. good to see twitter being put to good use by the Nats

    [ NatsforHunter Michael Johnsen
    Anyone know how to cancel a bid on e-Bay? Put in a bid for Cowboy Outfit and & I’m six minutes from owning the Australian Labor Government
    21 minutes ago]

  23. It dosen’t matter whether people are self absorbed or not, it should not affect their opinions of action on climate change.

    The frightening statistic here is that as much as half the people believe Abbott believes in and cares about climate change. Honestly, how stupid are these people?

    The media are running a campaign against the governments policy and their success can be measured in this poll. Fortunately people will be able to experience the effects of the carbon scheme in real life which may (should) change their views.

    Either way, media laws must be reviewed for the good of our democracy.

    It’s Time!

    Yes, the ASX200 up around 90 points, woohoo! 🙂

    Big upset in the footy tonight Bludgers, Parra to beat the Storm 😎

    More money to be made 😈

  28. The Essential question on Malaysia requires, for a yes of course, people to accept translocation of people both ways.

    I would like to see Essential split the two requirements to see where the approval lies for each component.

    Assuming there is a complete Greens policy it would be good too if all policies formed part of the polling.

    A straight question concerning approval as to mandatory detention would be informative as well.

  30. [ sohar
    Posted Monday, August 1, 2011 at 1:38 pm | Permalink
    As just posted on previous thread:]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/the-ultimate-insult-for-clarkson-his-views-been-ruined-by-a-recycling-tip-2329674.html

    The town grabage dump to be relocated to “within Lamborghini Murcielago breaking distance” of Chez Clarkson. Ah the irony.

    I notice one of the other sites considered (but then rejected) was right next door to Rebekah Brooks’ place.

    Had it been my decision, I would have plugged for the Brooks site. Someone who has spent the last 10 years or so printing piles of garbage about every poor unfortunate bastard whose phone they could hack can now live next to some for a bit.

    Clarkson would have been my second choice, of course.

  32. [Burgey
    Posted Monday, August 1, 2011 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    11 – What Sri Lankan quicks?]

    They will be quick enough if they hit that Ponting pinky

  35. Victoria

    The last thing Abbott would want is for the carbon tax issue to turn into a policy debate. It would simply be impossible for him to argue that regulation is better than a market mechanism.

    On top of that, Abbott’s base is at war with the ALP. If Abbott accepts the science of climate change, he’s no longer their man. The ALP need to alienate the extreme end of the spectrum

  39. Smithe,
    I guess any of the options for trash recycling would have been appropriate – Clarkson, Brooks or Cameron – take your pick.

  40. latikambourke Latika Bourke
    RT @abcnews: Minister Kevin Rudd recovering after heart surgery in Brisbane. Wife Therese Rein says operation to replace valve was a success

  43. The story about Ricky Ponting’s finger is the usual distraction as to the real questions supporters are asking which are why:

    (a) Hilditch is still chief selector;
    (b) Nielsen is coach;
    (c) KFC is a major sponsor when it peddles shit food to kids.

  44. [ I for one hope Storm thrash Parramatta!
    Yep, here too.]
    Mind you, I did pick Manly.

    [It dosen’t matter whether people are self absorbed or not, it should not affect their opinions of action on climate change.]
    But it seems to, centre. That’s one of the bits I find hard.

  45. David the Liberals will be thrilled.

    Gus 99.1% of projects good value for money? Well that message is more important than climate change!

    *catch u gals/guys later*

  48. victoria

    [Gus 99.1% of projects good value for money? Well that message is more important than climate change!]

    [Wonder if Limited news will report the resounding success of the BER?]

    No, but you can be sure they will tirelessly track down and report on the 0.9%

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