At some point in the previous fortnight, I resolved to abandon my practice of reporting Morgan face-to-face results by highlighting the previous-election measure of two-party preferred, rather than the respondent-allocated method favoured by Morgan. For those not familiar with this issue, there are two methods pollsters can use to determine how minor party and independent voters would allocate preferences: asking them, or making a distribution according to how voters for the relevant parties divided between Labor and the Coalition at the previous election. While the former would appear to pass the common sense test, it is in fact the latter which has consistently given more reliable results. It would seem that asking respondents places them in a position which is not replicated in the polling booth, where many follow how-to-vote cards or otherwise contrive to avoid engaging mentally with how they order their preferences – the significance of which many would not appreciate. As a result, the previous-election method has come to be favoured by every company other than Morgan, with Newspoll having adopted the practice after its final pre-election poll in 2004 was broadly accurate with regard to the primary vote, but awry on two-party preferred. My policy of favouring the previous-election measure was adopted for the sake of consistency in a period when Morgan seemed to be jumping around from one method to the other. However, Morgan has since settled upon the respondent-allocated measure, despite its poor track record. Highlighting a different result from Morgan’s was thus creating confusion, notwithstanding that I believe it to be the superior method.
Today Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll results since I made this decision, and they have rather awkwardly produced the biggest divide yet between the two measures. The respondent-allocated figure highlighted by Morgan has the Coalition with a thumping 56.5-43.5 lead, much the same as the 56-44 result from the previous poll (which was conducted on the weekend of July 9/10, with the carbon tax announcement coming on the latter date; the current poll combines the weekends of July 16/17 and July 23/24). However, the previous-election method gives the government a far happier result of 53-47. The primary votes are in fact little changed: Labor is up a point to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens up half to 12 per cent. What has happened is an exacerbation of the recent trend where Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences has gone in the same direction as its level of direct support. However, I remain unconvinced that this will be replicated on polling day. The Morgan figures for non-major parties are essentially identical to those recorded from the previous election, when the Greens polled 11.8 per cent and others 6.6 per cent (compared with 12 per cent and 6.5 per cent). If we take the Morgan respondent-allocated figure at face value, this suggests Labor’s share of all non-major party preferences has slumped from 66 per cent to 49 per cent. Since nearly two thirds of these voters are Greens supporters, this seems very hard to credit. The question nonetheless remains as to why poll respondents who favour minor parties and independents have become so much less likely to nominate Labor than the Coalition, to which I don’t have an answer – but keep in mind that the solid swing against Labor in the 2010 election was not reflected in the share of preferences it received.
Nonetheless, the record should note that Morgan has published a figure of 56.5-43.5, and has done so using a method that other pollsters were happy with until about half a decade ago. Equally though we should note that the alternative and apparently more reliable method has produced a result solidly more favourable to Labor than other pollsters have been producing of late. This brings us back to the old issue of the strong lean to Labor which has traditionally been evident in Morgan face-to-face polls, which the recent anti-Labor trend of respondent-allocated preferences has obscured. This point is illustrated by a chart I produced last month showing how Morgan face-to-face results (along with Essential and Nielsen) have differed from Newspoll since the start of 2009. As you can see from the two measures provided by Morgan, the issue of which preference method used was largely academic until the start of this year, when the present gap began to open. On this basis Morgan had become less favourable to Labor than Newspoll using the respondent-allocated method; its previous-election results remained more favourable, though only to the tune of about one point rather than the traditional three.
“Icarus” is right. The Republicans seem to have a problem winging it too.
US Banker in Beijing is not happy
[In a sign of growing international alarm over the U.S. impasse, China’s state-run news agency sharply criticized U.S. politicians, saying the world’s largest economy has been “kidnapped” by “dangerously irresponsible” politics.
As the largest foreign creditor to the United States, Beijing has repeatedly urged Washington to protect its dollar investments, which are estimated to account for about 70 percent of its $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-usa-debt-idUSTRE7646S620110729
rummel
[oh but i thought it was about the science not credibility?, ]
Science and credibility pass by the Heartland Institute like ships in the night. Surprisement not, the shills for hire also receive a motza from people like Exxon. Oh and I am sure their unbridled support for Phillip Morris was based on truly heroic quantities of science and integrity. Science without integrity is worthless.
poroti you are bang on, apparently the Americans found a huge amount stashed in the cellars of many of his palaces…never did learn what they did with it 😆
Oh dear! The carbon tax is having a detrimental effect on investment.
[Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) says its gas project at Gladstone, in central Queensland, will inject $14 billion into the state’s economy.
The company has made its financial investment decision on a $20 billion coal seam gas to liquefied natural (LNG) gas project.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-29/gas-project-promises-14b-investment/2815692
david
[poroti you are bang on, apparently the Americans found a huge amount stashed in the cellars of many of his palaces…never did learn what they did with it ]
It became fashionable to sneer at it but I still reckon it is a very good quaffer.
Dee,
Those poor miners! 👿 😀
[blackburnpseph
Posted Friday, July 29, 2011 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
Rod @ 52
I was polled by Morgan face to face a few years back. I recall the interviewer telling me that she had previously spent two whole days in Toorak without getting a single interview. When there a fences and security systems, as well security apartment blocks , I could see that the sample would be skewed in some way toward the ALP. Also, elderly people do not like answering the door etc.
Even though in these days of mobile telephony (and all of the questions that raises about samples), you are likely to get the broader demographic through a phone interview just because of the perceived anonymity.]
If the reduced face to face respondents from high income earners perhaps explains the higher result to Labor (vs phone results) in previous polls, what would a current higher face to face result for Labor say? Could the higher income groups be turning against the LOTO before the rest of the public? He’s off side with a couple of professions (economists & scientists), and the do nothing agenda and overall policy deficiency may put off those more likely to be following politics more closely, even traditiobal conservatives..
Another thing, action on climate change may be seen as a “moral” issue with some (doctor’s wives effect?).
Channel 10’s Hugh Rimmington on Tony Abbott’s campaigning methods.
http://bit.ly/q30bNE
Superb journalism as it shows how he shuts down the media and scrutiny.
Rummy
The IPCC made two genuine errors (one of those due to incorrect information provided by a government body). Neither of these errors were discovered by ‘sceptics’.
Two errors in many, many thousands of pages is a record that Heartland and the ‘sceptics’ can only dream of. They get even the most basic things completely wrong.
Go here to discuss your superficial ideas with some real scientists. I’m sure they’ll put you straight.
Oh and it’s spelled Pachauri – you can’t even get his name right and you have the gall to question his credibility? 😀
poroti
BS! Science is science and credibility is not a prerequisite.
When you have a debt there are really only two things that can happen to get rid of it:
1) Increase your labour
2) Decrease your standard of living
or some combination of the two.
Many western nations are slowly coming to terms with these facts.
No solution is easy. There is no such thing as a free lunch. If you live it up while increasing debt you have to suffer to decrease the debt.
Rod Hagen,
I’m new to this site so don’t know peoples historical comings and goings but especially around lasts years election campaign I used to look forward to your comments. Good to see you’re still around.
[Reagan Policy Advisor Bruce Bartlett: Chunk of GOP either stupid, crazy, ignorant or craven cowards]
Excellent analysis in this 6-minute interview with Republican economic adviser who worked for Reagan and the first Prez Bush. It contains a clear summary of how Pres. W. Bush escalated America’s level of debt with tax cuts and wars, which the Republicans want to be kept a dirty secret as they go the mongrel on Obama.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×604343
rummel
[poroti
BS! Science is science and credibility is not a prerequisite.]
To have credibility requires one to have integrity. Working for a tobacco is cool mob is a bit of a drag on ones credibility and integrity quotient. They were happy to distort and lie about the science when it comes to smoking so why would they hesitate to do the same in relation to climate change ?
@deflateionite/113
Problem with increasing your labour (especially costs) is that there are many crappy people out there that do not so good quality work.
[michellegrattan Michelle Grattan
shd Kevin take the animals on the UN security council campaign?
6 minutes ago]
how can anyone question Grattan’s gravitas?
[Mount Unicorn is a mountain within the State Forest in east Victoria. Mount Unicorn is at an altitude of about 944m above sea level.]
Dart Mining have found a lava bubble which has billions $$$ of molybdenum at Mt.Unicorn just out of Corryong.
Other mining operations are circling.
Any Green PBers heard anything?
Ok how about a little rational polling perspective.
On balance this is a good result for labor
It suggests that the spiral downhill has stopped and there is the beginning of a kick up. There seems to be a 1% increase in Labor primary vote, which while still within the margin of error is consistence with the trend of the essential and newspoll. So good reason to think that peak Abbott has passed and the worst of the CP scare is over. There is still a long way to climb but the trend is uphill.
If nothing else this poll and the others will put a leash on the dogs nipping at Gillard’s heels.
The second issue is the odd behavior of the respondent allocated TPP. The evidence suggests William is right and that this figure will not be as accurate as distribution of preferences according to the 2011 election. I other words there has been a 1-2% improvement in Labor polling since the CT announcement. However the very low figure for the respondent allocated preferences should be seen as a measure of the softness of the vote and a continuation of a “plague on both houses sentiment” It probably reflects the fact that many Green voters are unhappy about issues such as the Malaysia solution and that other soft green protest voters may oddly enough not like the CT (weird I know but can anyone think of other explanations).
William perhaps the rational way to allocate preferences would be from the last ELECTION state or federal. This might give an indication as to how rusted on second preferences really are to Labor. Just a thought.
my say
I have emailed EMRS to confirm that they were doing the survey. Thanks again for the address.
Poroti in my days at Victoria Uni it was ‘the’ wine to take to parties to impress the girls.
Hey babe, care to ah share a glass of this very expensive imported wine with me, perhaps out in the fresh air? ah the memories, ah the hangovers, great days though.
I’m sure the ladies here have dealt with similar young handsome ruffians back then, booted bums, get out of it 😆
deflationite,
The problem with many countries is that they have, and refuse to accept, is that they have a honeycomb economy. They are taxing the many but poor but the rich but few pay next to nothing and dodging tax is a sport. If the govt is not brave enough to enforce current tax law, tighten up existing laws and tax the rich, no amount of restraint will fix it.
As Ma Sheila Silverman of the Orange People once opined “Tough Titties” 🙂
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9940038/feds-refuse-to-discuss-new-taxes-porter/
This little black duck(98) TA has caught the NO to everything from the Republicans, you don’t think he would come up with an original idea do you? I was talking to an American in Greece and he was telling me about the Republicans(he is a Democrat) and I said that is how our coalition opposition go on, same ideas I would say from Dear Rupe. I though I was on a roll with 2 comments published in the Oz different to the line they were pushing, so went on DT and put a comment to TA’s Blog, not published only ones sucking up to TA were published, the whole 22 of them. Anyway last time I go on DT for a while
[US Banker in Beijing is not happy]
Yeah! The Chinese Communist party NEVER wastes time with actual democratic votes!
Never propose a vote unless you know the result before hand, it’s a much simpler form of government!
r
If you are unemployed I suggest seasonal employment in harvesting.
They are always looking for cherry pickers.
SK,
Could not agree more.
If the reduction in standard of living option is the main one taken the bulk of the pain will be felt by the poorest.
Using the U.S. as an example. The bailouts were dressed up as protecting the poor but in reality the bailouts were to protect the rich/banks.
If those that were too big to fail were allowed to fail, the rich would have borne the brunt of the pain.
that s ok mari
Oh dear how sad, another head lopped off…
The chair of the Press Complaints Commission, Peta Buscombe, appears about to be the next victim of the phone-hacking scandal. She is said to be preparing to make a formal announcement of her resignation on Friday.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/28/pcc-chair-retirement-phone-hacking
deflationite,
And we can’t have those poor rich bastards put out can we?
I knew a girl once her nickname was rose, she had a figure like a Mateus bottle. david are you sure is wasn’t cold duck wine? 😉
david,
Anyone who offered something better than Passion Pop, was a man of the world to me! 👿 😀
Looks like the Republicans are determined to write their own political death warrant over the debt issue. The Tea Party are leading them to destruction if they don’t back off IMHO.
[Using the U.S. as an example. The bailouts were dressed up as protecting the poor but in reality the bailouts were to protect the rich/banks.
If those that were too big to fail were allowed to fail, the rich would have borne the brunt of the pain. ]
Yes! And its very sad how even slight tax rises for the wealthy or corporations are not even considered by either US party as a political option. They’re much happier slugging the poor and middle class instead. Whatever else people may think about them (and this is a point the ALP rarely gets credit for), its nice that taxes here like the flood levy or the carbon price have been carefully crafted to avoid putting the brunt on the poor.
To continue on the US theme, some may disagree and say that Obama just has bad conditions (including an insane opposition party), but I think this makes a strong argument for his poor use of them:
http://symbalitics.blogspot.com/2011/07/new-entrant-for-worst-president-ever.html
zoidlord
[@deflateionite/113
Problem with increasing your labour (especially costs) is that there are many crappy people out there that do not so good quality work]
Way back in the 1980’s I remember we workers being admonished for having too many holidays. We needed to work longer and work for less to save the nation. It always made me think of Germany. Workers there having zillions of holidays and hourly rates way more than just about everyone……and yet and yet. They seem to do bloody well. Nothing to do with making things that people actually want to buy and an enormous appreciation for training and “brains” I suppose. In Australia meanwhile at the same time I went from being a QA chemist in a pharmaceutical company to being a builders labourer and doubled my income. Say no more when it comes to what is wrong with Aus.
Dee
from ‘The Border Mail’ last year:
http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/local/news/general/corryong-may-see-mining-boom/1837556.aspx
[Mining exploration company Dart Mining says ongoing drilling continues to support the notion of a major find of the metal that sells for $US40,000 a tonne.
Company chairman Chris Bain likens it to mines in Colorado that generate billion-dollar annual productions.
Two years ago, early results gave hope of a mining operation lasting 10 to 15 years.
Mr Bain says they are now talking more than half a century.]
daretotread@120 – yeah, I was thinking along the same lines that Greens/progressive voters want to give the ALP a ‘kick’ in the polls over their unhappiness with the Malaysian solution and inaction on marriage equality.
I’d agree with William’s gut feeling that the preferences in a real election are likely to go mostly back to the ALP – you already have the issue with polling that it isn’t “the real thing”, and I would suspect the nominated preferences are particularly soft because people won’t be taking the exercise anywhere near as seriously as at an election.
Dee 119
http://tinyurl.com/43akkyb
[Using the U.S. as an example. The bailouts were dressed up as protecting the poor but in reality the bailouts were to protect the rich/banks.]
This is just a false dichotomy. If the TARP legislation didn’t pass (which at first it didn’t, which resulted in a 5% drop in the share market) then more banks would’ve failed, which would’ve simply required a bigger bail out.
How could more banks collapsing help “the poor”?
Love this Tweet from Rupey:
[RupertMurdochPR Not Rupert Murdoch
What sort of country has Australia become when you can’t publish assassination threats against the PM? Stupid wombats http://tgr.ph/pyFhdp
10 minutes ago ]
[To continue on the US theme, some may disagree and say that Obama just has bad conditions (including an insane opposition party), but I think this makes a strong argument for his poor use of them:]
Worst President WTF?
Obama has done what Clinton tried to do but failed, pass a major health care reform bill.
Oh, and as a follow up he had Osama bin Laden killed, something that Bush failed to do in 8 years.
checked the ladder done that
Ummm
to those heretics out there
jedi a religion Is
yoda told me
🙂
Alan Kohler on ABC TV News just showed a chart which depicts the level of polarisation between the Repubs and Dems in the House of Reps based on voting positions.
Polarisation has climbed steeply in this century to its highest level since 1885.
Although Kohler’s columns in the “Business Spectator” are very conservative, he can be informative now and then.
[checked the ladder done that]
my say, is that the Stairway to Heaven?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9TGj2jrJk8
[some may disagree and say that Obama just has bad conditions (including an insane opposition party), but I think this makes a strong argument for his poor use of them]
So nothing to do with the guy that left him with 2 unnecessary wary that will rack up something like $4 Trillion dollars basically pissed up against the wall then ? Or that the guy he took over from sitting back whilst the febrile minds in Wall St went feral ?
Thanks Zoomster & Pom! 🙂
What next?
Mt.Kosciusko.
[yoda told me]
Gus, may the Farce be with you
I do hope they don’t wreck the trout fishing around Corryong.
Hi William
I just received confirmation that EMRS have been undertaking surveying in NSW and QLD.