Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,565 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Blue Green @ 99

    What Greens portfolio has best the opportunity to be silent and invisible? Then its hers!

    Or if the ALP and the Libs have their way – the one where she can get both feet in her mouth most often!!

  3. confessions,

    Agreed and I was one labor voter who underestimated as well.

    However, taking away old age of governments as a issue, since the cavemen times the bottom line has been the economy and peoples backpockets. Forget 2010. It had so many dynamics flowing at once to be any real indicator.

    This government may be on the back foot but it is not old. The economy will determine 2013 and whether people are comfortable or not with their place in life.

  4. Not that it’ll be a surprise to anyone, but Today Tonight is going hard at the SET TOP BOX RORT and as always giving no context about pensioners getting better policy under Gillard (and Rudd before her) than under Howard. And of course it was capped by Matt White saying that it all sounds like something from before. Its a pain knowing that the Government has to deal with anything they do being cast into this stupid WASTE/BATTS! mythology.

  6. [Agreed and I was one labor voter who underestimated as well.]

    Not this little black duck who predicted Abbott would lead the libs. Who is now predicting Julie Bishop will be next.

  7. [blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
    Blue Green @ 99

    What Greens portfolio has best the opportunity to be silent and invisible? Then its hers!
    ]

    How do you think the people of Norfolk and Cocos Islands would like her to be the spokesperson for External Territories?

  8. I don’t think Labor underestimated Abbott. However, I think they did underestimate (and went into shock) the voting public to be unable to sort out truth from propaganda and follow him like blind and deaf sheep.

  9. [Not that it’ll be a surprise to anyone, but Today Tonight is going hard at the SET TOP BOX RORT and as always giving no context about pensioners getting better policy under Gillard (and Rudd before her) than under Howard. And of course it was capped by Matt White saying that it all sounds like something from before. Its a pain knowing that the Government has to deal with anything they do being cast into this stupid WASTE/BATTS! mythology.]
    I saw that. Fortunately it is buried on Friday night and its advertising the free set top boxes.
    That perception is already out there. Do you think a program going to hoyle is going to change that?

  13. [Who is now predicting Julie Bishop will be next.]

    I think bluegreen predicted JBishop. I’m sceptical: she’s a woman, meaning the Libs would have to break substantially from Howardia in order to accept her, and they haven’t made that break yet. Almost all their policy platform is predicated on What Howard Did.

  14. [blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
    Blue Green

    I don’t think they would fancy joining the axis of evil … any others?
    ]

    Spokesperson for Australia Post?

    We used to have a Post Master general. Maybe its time for the Greens to bring it back.

  15. [confessions

    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    Who is now predicting Julie Bishop will be next.

    I think bluegreen predicted JBishop. I’m sceptical: she’s a woman, meaning the Libs would have to break substantially from Howardia in order to accept her, and they haven’t made that break yet. Almost all their policy platform is predicated on What Howard Did
    ]

    Bishop is the glue which is holding the WA Libs together – she goes and the Libs can say goodbye to WA.

  17. Lee Rhiannon, being a member of the NSW Greens, is not bound by decisions of the Federal Greens (check their constitution). She can do or say anything she likes and there is nothing Bob can do about it.

  18. I think the ALP have underestimated their opponent…

    Define their opponent. It ain’t just what Tony & the rest of the Fibs carry around in their head, matey.

  19. [Not this little black duck who predicted Abbott would lead the libs. Who is now predicting Julie Bishop will be next.]

    Well, while we’re bragging about our foresight, lemme just say the day that Abbott became leader, while others were laughing and congratulating Labor on just winning the next election, I went against the flow and said he will be a real threat because he has the exact same style as Howard. A style Labor and the left underestimated in 1996 and, will be doomed to repeat history if they do so again. Abbott, like Howard is able to paint the ALP as a bunch of elites in Canberra, pushing ideological pipe dreams, while every day Australia increasingly struggles and the Libs stand with them. It’s a sham of course but it worked so well in 96, worked pretty well in 10 and I don’t see no reason why it wouldn’t again.

    I have to say, I am a little more heartened to see ALP members going for Abbott now. They know he is a threat, don’t try to keep him there. Undermine him. If the country decides they don’t mind Abbott, it’ll be too late.

  20. [I think bluegreen predicted JBishop. I’m sceptical: she’s a woman, meaning the Libs would have to break substantially from Howardia in order to accept her, and they haven’t made that break yet. Almost all their policy platform is predicated on What Howard Did.]

    It would be like the The Vicar of Dibley episode where the town finds out they have been given a woman vicar:

    [
    David Horton: Owen, this is our new vicar.
    Owen Newitt: No it isn’t! She’s a woman!
    Geraldine Granger: Oh! You noticed! [Points to breasts] These are such a giveaway, aren’t they?!
    ]

  21. after JG put a firm end to the bleating for an immediate election, out comes disenfranchised majority

    [Once again we the electorate are faced with the grim outlook of another two years under the worst government in living memory, an illegitimate government with an illegitimate leader who are hell bent in driving Australia to the wall with their mismanagement, constant flawed policies and financial waste. It is now apparent that the prime minister has no ticker and is a coward who will hide behind the skirt of Bob Brown and the three amigoâ??s for as long as she possibly can to hold on to power. Under the circumstances we cannot even rely on the GG to end this parliamentary debacle so unless we have a resignation, death or a twinge of conscience from one of the three amigoâ??s we are left with a government that will force a carbon tax down our throats and refuse to recognise that they are the problem and not the solution. We want and need an election this year before Gillard and Brown force the carbon tax on us.]

    for anyone wanting a lesson on what the 54% are thinking………..

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/budgets/tony-abbott-throws-his-lines-into-labors-vote-pool/comments-fn8gf1nz-1226055301644

  22. First Australian Cabinet

    [Prime Minister and Minister for External Affairs
    Attorney-General
    Minister for Home Affairs
    Minister for Trade and Customs
    Treasurer
    Minister for Defence
    Postmaster-General
    Vice-President of the Executive Council
    And two Ministers without portfolios]

  24. [I wonder what portfolio Lee Rhiannon will get to be spokesperson for.

    If I was Bob Brown i would make her spokesperson for citizenship and volunteering.

    No. Maybe that would be too high profile.]

    Well it can’t be spokesperson for pouting and acting like a five year old. That’s Sarah’s role.

  26. Some of the later Cabinets had a Honorary Minister. What did they do?

    And what did a Minister without portfolio do?

  27. Blackburnpseph

    [Taxpayers can be any one from a school kid working in Safeway to someone retired or a dependent housewife with a small investment income i.e people on low incomes who don’t have an axe to grind re the 150k. ]

    True,but there is the query and anger out there as to why people on $150,000 + need government assistance.

    Plenty of oldies 40 – 50 plus didn’t get the rivers of money handed out nowadays to everyone.

  29. Of course, I’m notoriously bad at making predictions when it comes to Fed politics. So the fact I’ve said Bishop will be next leader means it’s probably over before it started 😀

  31. i don’t know if anyone picked it up, but on Bernard Keane’s article on Crikey about Abbottabad’s (Alledged) Budget Reply, commentor GEOMAC came up with the best title for him:

    The Slogan Bogan.

    (Link to give credit where credit is due http://bit.ly/jcxZRV).

  32. Oh FFS:

    [MoneyNewsShowRoss Greenwood

    Could you live on $2 a day? @Ross_Greenwood speaks to co-founder of Live Below the Line on @MTR1377 next up.

    4 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  34. [Could you live on $2 a day?]

    I could, I would live in a park, steal food, clothes etc as desired. I would be uncomfortable and probably die earlier, but yes I could. So what is your point Greenwood?

  36. At the time my harebrained theory was that Julie Bishop would be the Jim Hacker of the Liberal party. Question is, does she have any incriminating MI5 files on Abbott, Hockey, and Turnbull 😀

  37. [110
    bluegreen
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
    I think the ALP have underestimated their opponent and overevalutated their own performance.
    ]

    Well on the first count I think labor have consistently overestimated both the integrity and competence of their opponent – if you are suggesting the Libs are outperforming expectations on any front that should matter there is a job waiting for you at th oz or 7.5 report.

    I’m open minded on your second point (ignoring media management and I don’t want a kev v Julia debate) but would like some examples.

  38. [Today Tonight is going hard at the SET TOP BOX RORT ]

    Go Gerry reckoned he could do it at half the price and has been challenged by the govt to tender at half the price, idiot shock jocks are also claiming the boxes only cost $30.

    The set top boxes are HD, starting price for a good one $100, 4 star one $140. Usually home delivery and installation is $125. May need two blokes if a big heavy tv to move it. Plus one year back up service and warranty. Average cost $350.

    In their haste to discredit the scheme news have a story on possible rorts where work is being subcontracted out to install the boxes and installers are complaining they are only getting $85 meaning they can’t make any money when traveling time and labour is taken into account. Which contradicts the cost being a rort.

    Trouble is you have fools like bolt quoting a sd box at $30 which doesn’t pick up all the channels. Yeah dopey, give the oldies a box that doesn’t pick up all channels and most likely has sht reception and won’t last six months, after all pensioners eat dog food, they should be happy with a cheap sd box, why waste a good quality hd box on them. No wonder companies don’t want to advertise on his show even when they are free.

    Possum should do a follow up, why bolt should be sodomised with a hd set top box.

  39. I looked through the entire list of Australian Ministries.

    These are the portfolios which I think Bob Brown should choose from for Lee Rhiannon:
    -Postmaster general
    -External Territories
    -Administrative Affairs
    -Volunteering
    -Repatriation
    -Citizenship
    -Volunteering

    Or just Honorary Spokesperson. Or the spokesperson without portfolio.

  42. BH
    [Dr Phibes – ring his office and ask him. My neighbour was doing the same thing yesterday. He couldn’t work out why his work travel log was going to be hit so he was going home to ring Hockey’s office. Haven’t heard yet whether he got a straight answer.]

    Thought of that BH but didn’t think I would get to talk to Joe himself. I am a Chartered Accountant who has worked with tradies for years so surely only Joe can tell me how I have been giving wrong advice for so long.

    I have other problems though. What is with the 150k media circus? This income limit was announced by the Rudd Government in the 2008 budget, partly because millionaires were getting welfare. The media had a big debate over who is rich.

    In 2009 they amended the definition of income to add back (for obvious reasons, thanks to the likes of me) things like salary sacrifice and negatively geared investments. The media had a big debate over who is rich.

    In this budget Julie announced that the 150K limit would remain unchanged. That is all.The media is having a big debate over who is rich.

    Don’t get me started on the investigation into the Chartered Accountants for their dodgey “audit” of Joe Hockey’s figures during the 2010 election. The investigation is justified, but it is based on whether they acted unethically by not making it public that Joe Hockey was lying when he said the estimates were audited when in fact they weren’t.

  43. castle is that the same Gerry Harvey who got his installation company to install pink batts? I reckon he may be sodomised by Combet sooner rather than later. 😉

  44. hello,
    back from katter country
    I will bet any amount of money that abbot will be the lib leader at the next federal election.

  47. [Question is, does she have any incriminating MI5 files on Abbott, Hockey, and Turnbull]

    Dunno about secret files, madcyril ( 😉 ). But she certainly seems to hold authority and fundraising capacity amongst the WA Libs.

  48. castle,

    intetesting what the 38000 pensioners who have the stb’s are thinking about all this. I would not be surprised if a few are pretty dirty with the MSM and Abbott over this.

  49. [I’m open minded on your second point (ignoring media management and I don’t want a kev v Julia debate) but would like some examples.]

    Look down the list of the Rudd election proposals and see how many have been delivered.

    Health reform- increase in funding but not in return for associated reform (also delivered late)
    MDB- no reform to date. Some water purchases but no more or less than Howard/turnbull had promised.
    Environment (cf energy policy)- promised reforms to environemnt legislation. Commisioned review but then shelved recommendations. They reformed structure of Natural Heritage Trust fund without any clear benefits. Spending still is politically designated. And they cut the funds by 2/3s.
    NBN- long time behind schedule
    Indigenous Affairs- still a hodgepodge of policies. Indig Housing still not delivered. New problems emerging in Alice and Darwin.
    Foreign Affairs- decline in relationship with India and the Pacific. Fairly solid with China and the US.
    Tax reform- Henry Review implementation troublesome.

    However, I actually like some of the new welfare and tax reforms in the budget. maybe they are improving their policy nous.

  50. [

    SpudBenBeanDuchess Potato

    by Salvor_Hardin_
    @

    @zackster & Journos complaining the ALP can’t get it’s message out – journos won’t report the message, just the #Sideshow

    2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

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