The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.
[Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced.]
I am sure they feel comforted. 🙂
WWP
The boom in Costello thinking has caused the infrastructure problems we have now. Would the Sydney Harbour Bridge have been built if it was paid for by those using it at the time? No of course not. It was paid for by future generations by borrowing.
But what do we have with new housing developments, the developer has to pay for the infrastructure, meaning that land prices increase, meaning new house prices increase, meaning established house prices increase. So instead of public debt increasing, private debt goes through the roof. But thats OK cos Costello can smirk from his hammock.
(just in case it gets missed in the old thread 😉 )
Oh. I was just about to respond to some abuse that I think that was directed to me 🙂
But it appears to have gone. Either William has snipped it or I am losing my marbles.
Or any of the above.
Has anyone else noticed the dramatic fall in fruit and veg prices at the supermarket?
Poor Joe.
[ruawake
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 5:22 pm | Permalink
Has anyone else noticed the dramatic fall in fruit and veg prices at the supermarket?
]
I have noticed the quality is improving
The thing about floods is that they put stacks of sub-surface moisture into the soil. Great for agriculture for years.
[Would the Sydney Harbour Bridge have been built if it was paid for by those using it at the time? No of course not. It was paid for by future generations by borrowing.]
If there had been no Harbour Bridge then Gloria wouldn’t have been able to talk that crackpot down from his perch upon it this morning.
No harbour Bridge, no crackpots, no traffic jams.
STOP LABOR TRAFFIC JAMS!
You know it makes sense….
ruawake
You’ve reminded me that Abbott said that one thing the Coal would do was reduce living expenses if they were elected (Elect ME – Now!).
Seem to remember that was a promise that didn’t work for Rudd, either.
Recycling everything.
[This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.]
Shy Labor syndrome (she asks hopefully)?
I just realised the popn policy was on throw-out-the-trash-friday. 3PM Friday Afternoon. In budget week. Released on the Gold Coast.
Nice.
The boomers have rewritten western society in their own image – from their sexual revolution onwards and will be writing the last chapter. All the chapters so far have been ‘me now’ chapters from the sex now revolution onwards.
Interesting that it always boils down to the media. Mr Denmore, writing at Larvatus Prodeo:
[I think as a former journalist, Abbott finds a sympathetic audience among many in the press gallery. As well, they like the fact he’s constantly taking the fight up to the government and creating the atmosphere of a perpetual election campaign.
So they’re happy to play along with him. Of course, it’s also in their own personal and media’s business interests to characterise the government as on the brink of coming apart and Abbott as being on the brink of taking power.
Abbott knows this and feeds the perception, so it becomes a self-generating feedback loop. Many of the younger reporters now know no different. For them, Abbott’s every utterance carries equal weight to what the government says.
Of course, inside the ABC there is another dimension to this, with this ‘equal-time-in-an-election’ atmosphere also nicely keeping the stop-watch brigade from their door.
And all the while as this occurs, the media plays into Abbott’s hands while giving him no scrutiny whatsoever.]
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/05/12/back-to-the-future-tony-abbotts-budget-reply/#comment-310288
[Has anyone else noticed the dramatic fall in fruit and veg prices at the supermarket?
Poor Joe.]
Won’t matter — the perception is there, that’s enough. The media lags behind the rest of us, and so doesn’t bother unless it’ll highlight their ‘star boy’s’ argument.
[9
bluegreen
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 5:33 pm | Permalink
I just realised the popn policy was on throw-out-the-trash-friday. 3PM Friday Afternoon. In budget week. Released on the Gold Coast.
Nice.
]
Josh would be proud!
confessions,
No. We are suffering from the other SLS (Successful Liars Syndrome), unfortunately.
[This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.]
When we were led to believe that Swan was about to deliver a punitive, harsh budget?
WWP
Which generation has had fairer access to housing- those first home buyers pre 1990 or post 1990?
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Household_Prices_and_Debt_1980_-_2010.pdf&page=1
And for every winner (of increased asset value) there is a loser (of a higher barrier to entry).
[Josh would be proud!]
😆
all things being equal, this is a bit of a shocker
the trendline is firmly entrenched
the perception is entrenched
the waverers seem to be increasingly locked in
[He has had twelve months to make a decision and has yet too. So if the ALP want to talk about better strategic assessment or better environmental protection or better land supply- they actually have to just make a decision.]
b_g could it be that Burke is waiting for the carbon pricing policy to be announced which will include a lot of environmental stuff.
Wrote a long post on the other thread and found it was closed. Upshot of it was that I was trying to cheer you all up.
1. Went shopping in Oakeshott territory today. Ran into 3 couples who all say they will still vote for Oakeshott even tho they were Mark Vaille voters originally. Good stuff.
2. Nobody accosted us in the street to say they wanted a new election. Take note Andrew Robb and Tony Abbott.
3. Listened to local ABC radio (Mid NOrth Coast) on way home. 11 callers, emails or text messages in the 1/2 hour we listened. 7 ranted about their intense dislike for Tony Abbott and complained about his speech last night. – one even wrote a very uncomplimentary limerick. OH and I were cheering. Only 1 old bloke rang in and said he was a former Labor vote but he now loved Tony so I guess that old bloke listens to the shockjocks up here.
4. 4 callers were very angry about the reduction in the solar panel rebate announced today by Barry O’Farrell. It has gone from 60% under Labor to 40% under O’Farrell.
The industry is going to hire a QC to fight O’Farrell. Most had borrowed money to get the solar panels – one had borrowed $32,000. One of these callers is included in the 7 that bagged Tony Abbott.
Last caller said O’Farrell can kiss 150,000 votes goodbye over it.
Came home and watched JG’s earlier presser while we had a relaxing cuppa. The woman is terrific and needs to throw away the written word when she calls an address to the nation once the carbon price is announced. She is so good when she just talks naturally to people.
A good day all round for OH and I – except for having to put the goddamned shopping away!!
It was a great day all round.
Lyndall Curtis doing her very best to pin a reptilian Abbott down.
Mr Denmore again …
[Abbott is in a position with the media where anything he says – no matter how contradictory or illogical or clearly flaky and ill-thought out – will be reported faithfully without comment.
There seems absolutely no willingness or capacity by journalists to point out the public that this man is winging it. The “pink batts-BER” mythology is swallowed hole and regurgitated over and over – yet his own frailities are never scrutinised.
I find myself almost wishing that he got his wish, an early election was held and a Coalition government was formed, just so he could be exposed as the opportunist he is.
But I suspect not even that would change the narrative.]
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/05/12/back-to-the-future-tony-abbotts-budget-reply/#comment-310369
These polls are continuing to reflect that Coalition three election campaign is well on track. I know everyone doesn’t want to hear it but despite the good work the govt is doing Tony’s message is the only one that is getting through.
Please Julia, I love to hear all your words but the public doesn’t. Every announcement does NOT have to be a full essay.
Abbott has just supplanted Howard on the hate meter after this performance with Lyndall Curtis.
sorry three year election….
bk
what did he say?
Gus
I tend to agree with you! My qualifier would be that in this last week the Government has pulled off a few achievements. I think the mental health funding for one is a major policy win and one which will influence thousands of families.
Until I went to work for an inner city MP which I did for five years I had absolutely no idea of the depth of the problem and the impact and despair felt by families. It was one of the greatest lessons of my life.
While the libs have the ascendancy at present I have a feeling that they can only count on negativity for so long before the voters start asking what they will do if they find themselves in Government. Labor have to start the hard sell. Mark Butler for one is doing just that with the Mental Health issues and he is cutting through!
Gus
He is speaking to Lyndall as though she is a child.
No answers, just slogans and statements like “lazy government”. Nasty.
[These polls are continuing to reflect that Coalition three election campaign is well on track. I know everyone doesn’t want to hear it but despite the good work the govt is doing Tony’s message is the only one that is getting through.
Please Julia, I love to hear all your words but the public doesn’t. Every announcement does NOT have to be a full essay.]
As I wrote in the other thread – time for the Government to insist on not answering questions originally posed by the opposition – they need to make this clear in every public interview
[22
Space Kidette
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 5:46 pm | Permalink
These polls are continuing to reflect that Coalition three election campaign is well on track. I know everyone doesn’t want to hear it but despite the good work the govt is doing Tony’s message is the only one that is getting through.
Please Julia, I love to hear all your words but the public doesn’t. Every announcement does NOT have to be a full essay.
]
Kidette I don’t think it matters. If she doesn’t do a full essay it will be spin without substance, where there is good policy and detail it will be ignored and she’ll be blamed for failing to sell. Lose lose. Only the media and libs have anything to gain with the myth that the govt is doing something wrong. The media once an important pillar of democracy is now a farce we would be better off without.
Rua @ 2
Your analogy of housing affordability is unfortunate because a lot of the problems with housing affordability rest with state governments. For example in NSW, local councils have to use developer levies as a source of revenue because councils have their rates pegged and their hands are tied. Therefore, existing residents who benefited in earlier decades from public investment are winning again as their rates are not providing services for new residents but these residents have to shoulder the full burden. Hopefully the new NSW government will allow rates to be unpegged.
But on the whole agree that infrastructure has been woefully underfunded. Governments of both persuasions state and federal are to blame over many decades. Costello did however have more readies to spend.
BH
[4 callers were very angry about the reduction in the solar panel rebate announced today by Barry O’Farrell. It has gone from 60% under Labor to 40% under O’Farrell.]
And
[needs to throw away the written word when she calls an address to the nation once the carbon price is announced. She is so good when she just talks naturally to people.]
Agree on both points!
I think the polls just reflect disallusionment with politicians generally and because Labor is in government they are getting belted the most. I doubt things have really changed much from a 50/50 situation if we had to elect a new government. Perhaps the carbon tax puts the Coalition ahead at present but these polls don’t mean a great deal this far out from an election.
I don’t know how anyone can support any party with confidence at present?
[And for every winner (of increased asset value)…]
Why is an increased asset value a win? Unless you are a moron and want to borrow against the increased asset value. If you want to sell your house it costs more in agents fees and stamp duty and the house you are buying has also increased in value.
So no its not a win at all. Unless you pay off the mortgage and intend to downsize.
george:
Only saw your comment from previous thread. I think they should be subtle about it. No need to outright make it clear that they won’t respond to abbott nonsense, but to re-work the question into an answer that relays the govt’s achievements. As the PM did this morning talking about child care, health, education in response to a stupid question about whether $150K was ‘rich’.
[No answers, just slogans and statements like “lazy government”]
Right wing projection!
[And in my experience, pensioners are the biggest whingers of the lot. Nothing is ever good enough for the oldies.]
well, few weeks ago, i was walkabout at the Acer Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, there were hundreds of 10-12 years boys and girls prancing around waiting for their idol Justin Bieber.
this afternoon, i was also walkabout at the same Acer Arena, there were quite a few, not quite hundreds, oldies, also prancing around waiting for their idol, Andre Rieu, but on their walking stick.
Ah, how the sweet birds of youth have flown.
“And all the while as this occurs, the media plays into Abbott’s hands while giving him no scrutiny whatsoever”
The same could also be said about Bob Carr and Mike Rann – both former journalists who ran unrelenting spin machines based on the sound grab.
WWP,
I don’t think that is correct. This week she did a kick ass interview and pretty much gave one or two sentence answers and showed the lazy mediacelebrities the door. There was not one negative story from that interview.
Laura Tingle in today’s AFR
[
No, the budget, as far as the Opposition is concerned, didn’t happen and isn’t going to be allowed to grab any airspace. By taking this approach, it seeks to further undermine Labor’s very legitimacy and authority
For long time parliamentary watchers, there are strong parallels with Malcolm Fraser’s tactics in 1975 – when the Coalition flatly refused to engage in any issues run up the flagpole by the government, to rob it of any chance of controlling the political agenda.
The same thing is happening here, and to date Abbott has been very successful at dominating the retail politics of both the boat people and carbon tax issues
Even when the government does things which reflect Coalition policies, he disparages them.
]
She goes on to argue that the Coalition may end up basically waving through most of the budget legislation to enable it to maintatin the focus on “a tax that does not yet exist”.
[Why is an increased asset value a win? ]
Do you want to rethink that statement.
Its called wealth.
Mytwobobsworth
The mental health policy that the Libs took to the election campaign was one of their few policy successes. Labor were left looking flat footed. They learned quickly and they have taken advantage of incumbency to turn their policy disadvantage into an advantage.
madcyril
Thanks for the Laura Tingle article – very interesting!
[For long time parliamentary watchers, there are strong parallels with Malcolm Fraser’s tactics in 1975 – when the Coalition flatly refused to engage in any issues run up the flagpole by the government, to rob it of any chance of controlling the political agenda.]
At least this time there’s no Kerr at Yarralumla.
[ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Mediaocrity: Taking your story lead without checking or analysing the facts. Synonymous with Press Release Regurgitation.
]
Before we all start getting our knickers in a knot over this poll wasn’t it taken in pretty much the same time frame as the latest Essential ?
The Essential showed no change in PV or 2PP so what is going on.
All depends glass half empty or glass half full on which poll. Polls stable or labor falling further behind ?
[For example in NSW, local councils have to use developer levies as a source of revenue because councils have their rates pegged and their hands are tied.]
The trick is that rates are calculated on land value, which just happens to go up because of developer levies, so local govt cannot increase the level of rates but still get more revenue because of the increase in land values, that they caused in the first place.
Bushfire Bill,
I hope you don’t mind but I copied your comment from the last thread and posted it over at Political Sword. Ad astra was chuffed – we do miss you over there.
Geez Jack the Insider is super fired up today
Well worth the read
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/no_class_in_australian_politics/
[Mark Butler for one is doing just that with the Mental Health issues and he is cutting through!]
mytbw – Mark Butler has been very good this week – inside and outside Parliament. I’m impressed.
Yes, SK, the PM has to stop with the long sentences and no more slow emphasising. I heard Abbott with Laws this morning. Lots of ums going on but mostly sycophantic Abbott and dorothy dixer laws.
blackburnpseph
[They learned quickly and they have taken advantage of incumbency to turn their policy disadvantage into an advantage.]
That’s what they need to do much more of! They have some very competent and persuasive members who have much more nous than the opposition give them wings and let them fly!