The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.
[Do you want to rethink that statement.
Its called wealth.]
Not when it comes to where you live. Its called a mirage. “P
I agree with davidwh
[I think the polls just reflect disallusionment with politicians generally and because Labor is in government they are getting belted the most. I doubt things have really changed much from a 50/50 situation if we had to elect a new government. Perhaps the carbon tax puts the Coalition ahead at present but these polls don’t mean a great deal this far out from an election.
I don’t know how anyone can support any party with confidence at present?]
I was actually surprised to see the government’s attack on Tony Abbott’s negativity and recklessness gain some traction in the MSM.
I think they need to do this more – paint Tony Abbott and the Libs as the being on the side of the super-rich – not a good look amongst most voters.
So they won’t be able to keep it up as long as you have?
I hope you are right but I doubt it. Having a great interview NOT feed negative stories is not a win – I just read the corporate taxpayers weekly news letter. Tony would have loved it. Talked of the ‘whopping’ deficit and the ‘smidgin’ of a surplus.
‘in one of the more outrageous policy …’
‘it was a dissappointing budget from a gst point of a view’
‘it was also disappointing the govt has not…’
‘in a sleight of hand to make the budget look like it has more in it than it really does…’
‘although there is no specific mention of the proposed corporate rate cut to 29% in 2012-13, …’ we have been told it will happen.
We are a pretty low taxing country – they are getting a tax cut to even lower next year and the govt and the budget I just rubbish.
Companies used to train people and give them job security – now we are all on short term contracts the govt mus train us they don’t want to pay tax and they will take the profits of the current mining boom offshore –
mytwobobsworth
It’s a real shame Laura is stuck behind a paywall. She’s a beaut.
[george:
Only saw your comment from previous thread. I think they should be subtle about it. No need to outright make it clear that they won’t respond to abbott nonsense, but to re-work the question into an answer that relays the govt’s achievements. As the PM did this morning talking about child care, health, education in response to a stupid question about whether $150K was ‘rich’.]
I dunno – I think it needs to be driven home once and for all – the journos are pretending they’re balance and (rightly) feel the government wont pull them up on it.
Another thing they should do is ask this after every question: “is this your opinion or do you have some research or analysis to back that assertion?”
[Now everyone makes mistakes, drops the crockery and ums and ahs but the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, seems to make the same howlers over and over. This is his third budget as Swan’s opposite and he continues to make statements that are probably anomalous and more often than not foolish. ]
From JTI.
Hockey has had some shockers in his years as treasury spokesperson.
[For long time parliamentary watchers, there are strong parallels with Malcolm Fraser’s tactics in 1975 – when the Coalition flatly refused to engage in any issues run up the flagpole by the government, to rob it of any chance of controlling the political agenda.]
Laura is right – it feels exactly the same and guess who was in Canberra then. Yep, Abbott’s big buddy, John Howard, so I bet he’s advising behind the front line.
Abbott’s big buddy wasn’t all that big back then- the common factor is Rupert.
I liked Simon Benson’s description of Hockey’s efforts
[
Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey’s response to the Budget has been at times incomprehensible.
]
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/simonbenson/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/message_lost_amid_anger_of_middle_class/
[Another thing they should do is ask this after every question: “is this your opinion or do you have some research or analysis to back that assertion?”]
george:
The PM has been challenging The Stupid a bit more these days (ie the exchange about the highest taxing govt). And I was pleased to see Swan give it back in spades at the NPC in response to the question about trophy wives, and an equally ridiculous question asking him to pre-empt a Bob Brown news conference that hadn’t even happened yet.
I reckon Abbott would love to get rid of Hockey, ’cause Joe occasionally talks some sense and is not relentless in his pursuit of Tony’s message. Like his trusts stuff.
Same is true for many shadowy ministers, they can’t talk about any policy ideas they may have. Its all coming from Abbott’s office, or is that orifice, and must surely be pissing some of the sensible Libs off.
I do not know for sure but I doubt that in 1975 there existed the Liberal propaganda networks that we now call talkback radio networks.
madcyril: reading the tabloid junk so PBers don’t have to.
Bushfire Bill: listening to junk radio so PBers don’t have to.
Thanks guys for taking those hits for the team! 😀
confessions
What can I say, when it comes to tabloid junk, I’m in my element 😀
[I do not know for sure but I doubt that in 1975 there existed the Liberal propaganda networks that we now call talkback radio networks.]
Speaking from experience, although working in TV at the time, radio was the real news media. TV was not a 24 hour a day thing in many places. It started broadcasting at mid-day and stopped at midnight in regional Australia.
http://www.alp.org.au/blogs/alp-blog/may-2011/tony-abbott-s-mindless-negativity/
suppose you all got this from Julia
watched ch. news did you all see tone yawning for at least two minutes it was horribe a horrible sight. why did ch 9 show that.
did they think it was just a big yawn or are they embarrresing him
[Dr Phibes
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 10:20 am | Permalink
I wish someone would ask Tony and Joe how “tradies” are going to be worse off with the FBT changes. I am a tax accountant and I have spent 3 days trying to come up with some scenario, however bizarre were they are worse off. I need an answer so I can concentrate on work again.]
Dr Phibes – ring his office and ask him. My neighbour was doing the same thing yesterday. He couldn’t work out why his work travel log was going to be hit so he was going home to ring Hockey’s office. Haven’t heard yet whether he got a straight answer.
Confessions @ 58
I think there are two general mistakes that many on this site make:
1. Underestimate Tony Abbott
2. Overestimate Joe Hockey
The political nous, chutzpah and focus of Tony Abbott are a significant reason for the government being in their present situation.
The fact that Joe Hockey is so policy ‘lightweight’ (pardon the pun – but there aint no other word for it) is a significant reason why the Libs are not doing even better in the polls – if they had a cohesive economic policy (and Joe’s bluster and all round (sorry another pun) heartiness don’t count) then Wayne Swan in particular would be on the ropes. It is fine for Tony Abbott not to be an economic wonk (you can’t be everything) but he needs someone who is as shadow Treasurer. They got away with it in one election but two won’t cut the mustard. Julia and Wayne probably say a little prayer fairly ofetn that Joe sticks around.
my say
In Melbourne, on Channel Nine, the only Federal political story was the PM visiting Clunes to announce the 500 Million dollars being given to Victoria to help the floods recovery.
[60
Kersebleptes
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:13 pm | Permalink
Abbott’s big buddy wasn’t all that big back then- the common factor is Rupert.
]
Which Warren Mitchell in his persona of Alf Garnett said in a Radio interview on Perth Radio in 1976 along the same lines re Rupert.
Bilbo has the mp3 file and should write up the relevent passage 🙂
BTW,
Here is a Fact Sheet from Conroy re the STB scheme:
http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/media_releases/2011/182
Guess the meeja will file it in the round filing cabinet.
[Rich on $150,000? Looks like it ]
[The average male income would currently be around $57,500 with the average female income just over $38,000. There were only 15 per cent of all taxpayers with an income above $80,000 in 2008/09, and only 3 per cent of all taxpayers with an income above $150,000]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/rich-on-150000-looks-like-it-20110513-1em26.html
This is the upper middle class welfare instituted by Howard and is part of the libs greed and envy that welfare should be for everyone not just for those that need it.
Whitlam started an end to the libs continual dipping into the public purse when it was revealed Billy McMahon was claiming the old age pension on top of his enormously lucrative parliamentary pension.
Howard brought back the ability for the rich to claim benefits from the pension but not the pension itself when he exempted superannuation income from the income tests.
Abbott continues that envy of welfare to those that need it, he was envious of the $900 hand out because he missed out, he was envious of the tax cuts denied to the top bracket because he missed out.
The libs have a mind set about government money being handed out and it is that they should get the lions share.
madcyril:
I admire your intestinal fortitude. 20mins of
Sky’s AM AgendaFox and Friends Australia this morning was enough to last a lifetime![ruawake
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:23 pm | Permalink
I do not know for sure but I doubt that in 1975 there existed the Liberal propaganda networks that we now call talkback radio networks.
Speaking from experience, although working in TV at the time, radio was the real news media. TV was not a 24 hour a day thing in many places. It started broadcasting at mid-day and stopped at midnight in regional Australia.
]
Agreed – there was Talkback Radio and the players were John Laws and in Sydney the late John Pearce.
blackburnpseph
You can’t blame Hockey. The Libs have tied themselves in knots on economic policy, even Houdini could not escape.
“if they had a cohesive economic policy ” then they would not be able to tell porkies everyday.
Rua,
Check your email – got a little pressie re Warren Mitchell 🙂
[I do not know for sure but I doubt that in 1975 there existed the Liberal propaganda networks that we now call talkback radio networks.]
Your are right Cuppa. We used to get Gwenni and Gordon on 2UE networked all over Oz and a couple of others but not very much political talkback.
bbp:
I think Abbott’s capability as LOTO has been roundly underestimated, not just by people here (incl me), but more broadly – esp the govt.
Strangely enough, I’ve never really given Hockey much thought, except that I’d certainly prefer him as LOTO than Abbott. Hockey might be blustering and loose-lipped, but he doesn’t seem so nasty in the way that Tone is.
Abbott has two attack points at the moment. Boats and Carbon pricing. Both of these will be addressed in the next 2 – 3 months.
Details of the CC package will be released and the agreement with Malaysia will be formalised and possibly a deal with PNG. What effect on boat arrivals this will have will start to take shape in this time frame so all is in front of us.
Nothing is real until these issues are addressed.
well the channel 9 yarn was amazing there he was sitting back on the chair in front of the microphone mouth wide open yawning for well at least 2 min oh and i just kept looking at each other wondering then it went back to the lady newsreader who looked quite astonishedl
better do my footy tipping
some one could check ch. 9 on line may be it s there but my point is why.
we take most of our new thats not local from sydney i think
confessions
I used to get really angry at things like Bolt’s columns and seeing Abbott ranting in parliament. But about a year ago I seemed to reach peak idiocy and now I can sit through something like Abbott’s budget in reply speech without it having any impact on me. I wonder if it will last!
Confessions,
I would be surprised if the government is continuing to underestimate Abbott.
They may be behind in the polls but they are not stupid.
[did they think it was just a big yawn or are they embarrresing him]
mysay – I hope it was both!!
“You can’t blame Hockey. The Libs have tied themselves in knots on economic policy, even Houdini could not escape. ”
Agree they have the knots but then the job of the shadow treasurer should be there to keep the string straight and no knots to start with.
[I would be surprised if the government is continuing to underestimate Abbott.]
Perhaps not now, but they certainly did when he first became leader.
Frank,
A much more substantial commenter then you’d get on the radio today!
BH
Thanks for the memories of Gordon Chater and Gwen Plumb!
madcyril:
I hope for your wellbeing that it does!
frank west coast or freemantle who do i tip
[my say
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:41 pm | Permalink
frank west coast or freemantle who do i tip
]
Freemantle My Say.
Was it only 18 months ago, the progressive side of politics was basking in huge opinion poll leads? These were uneasy times. What government could sustain such leads? The answer is, of course, none.
At what point in history, at election time, has the TPP been anything other than 52-48? Do we really believe, that an election, if held tomorrow, would be anything other?
Of course, 52-48 delivers a “landslide” in terms of seats but in terms of “for” and “against” a current government, the margin is thin whether it be pro conservative or pro progressive. Put bluntly only 4 people in 100 have to shift their vote one way or the other for seats to fall.
There are some new dynamics at work in the electorate. Labor is bleeding to the left to the Greens while battling to hold the middle ground. Therefore, noting that Labor’s PV is at “historical lows” is pointless as we have not had a resurgent political party to the left of Labor in “history” – unless you want to put the Democrats in this category.
Labor is work in progress at the moment and will be so for months ahead. There will be more “low” polls but these are not the ones that count. If, this time 18 months from now, the polls are as they are, then perhaps and only perhaps, might be the time to do some soul searching.
One of the reasons Labor is on the back foot at the moment, regardless of the media, is that the progressive side of politics, with a good message to sell, is being shy putting it on the record. This does not mean stooping down to the lowest levels of the conservatives.
Why are we buying the MSM rubbish about this being like “Gough’s time”? It is not. Why are we buying the “Like Labor in NSW” line? In the latter case, Labor died of old in NSW at 16 years of age. It is likely the Labor government in SA will go the same way. Was it not so long ago that some commentators were making the point with Labor in power in every State of Oz, this militated against a Beazley Labor government federally as voters hedged their bets. History is not repeating itself as much as the conservatives would like to think so.
Our PM is made of stern stuff and she will not lie down and die. Mind you there are some on the progressive side of politics who would prefer to be policy pure rather than in government. They are a worry.
[91
my say
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:41 pm | Permalink
frank west coast or freemantle who do i tip
]
Fremantle – Theey’ve won this derby more times in recent years 🙂
thank you frank
[Mark Tomasz
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 6:42 pm | Permalink
Was it only 18 months ago, the progressive side of politics was basking in huge opinion poll leads? These were uneasy times. What government could sustain such leads? The answer is, of course, none.
At what point in history, at election time, has the TPP been anything other than 52-48? Do we really believe, that an election, if held tomorrow, would be anything other?
Of course, 52-48 delivers a “landslide” in terms of seats but in terms of “for” and “against” a current government, the margin is thin whether it be pro conservative or pro progressive. Put bluntly only 4 people in 100 have to shift their vote one way or the other for seats to fall.
There are some new dynamics at work in the electorate. Labor is bleeding to the left to the Greens while battling to hold the middle ground. Therefore, noting that Labor’s PV is at “historical lows” is pointless as we have not had a resurgent political party to the left of Labor in “history” – unless you want to put the Democrats in this category.
Labor is work in progress at the moment and will be so for months ahead. There will be more “low” polls but these are not the ones that count. If, this time 18 months from now, the polls are as they are, then perhaps and only perhaps, might be the time to do some soul searching.
One of the reasons Labor is on the back foot at the moment, regardless of the media, is that the progressive side of politics, with a good message to sell, is being shy putting it on the record. This does not mean stooping down to the lowest levels of the conservatives.
Why are we buying the MSM rubbish about this being like “Gough’s time”? It is not. Why are we buying the “Like Labor in NSW” line? In the latter case, Labor died of old in NSW at 16 years of age. It is likely the Labor government in SA will go the same way. Was it not so long ago that some commentators were making the point with Labor in power in every State of Oz, this militated against a Beazley Labor government federally as voters hedged their bets. History is not repeating itself as much as the conservatives would like to think so.
Our PM is made of stern stuff and she will not lie down and die. Mind you there are some on the progressive side of politics who would prefer to be policy pure rather than in government. They are a worry.
]
Hear, Bloody Hear.
And this sentence alone:
[Mind you there are some on the progressive side of politics who would prefer to be policy pure rather than in government. They are a worry.
]
Should be noted by those hear who are unwittingly aiding an Abbott Victory.
You know who you are 🙂
[Agree they have the knots but then the job of the shadow treasurer should be there to keep the string straight and no knots to start with.]
But how can he? Without treading on the leaders toes?
The Opposition is Tony Abbott, the rest may as well do a John Alexander and grin. This may be OK for now, but will fall apart if the polls turn.
[I used to get really angry at things like Bolt’s columns ]
I read where companies were asking that their products not be advertised even though the ads were free. No such thing as a free (ad) lunch the companies must have realised and that not all publicity is good publicity.
Has this happened before?
I wonder what portfolio Lee Rhiannon will get to be spokesperson for.
If I was Bob Brown i would make her spokesperson for citizenship and volunteering.
No. Maybe that would be too high profile.
Castle @ 74
Your quotes are on taxpayers whereas the political heat is being generated by household income. Taxpayers can be any one from a school kid working in Safeway to someone retired or a dependent housewife with a small investment income i.e people on low incomes who don’t have an axe to grind re the 150k. In terms of full time workers and households the numbers would be much greater – and also to some extent geographically concentrated – from what we hear about big incomes in the mines there might be lots of grumbling on the FlyInFlyOut planes. In all likelihood these concentrations of the affected might be driving the political agenda.