Like wow — wipeout

Surveying the damage region by region:

  ALP L-NP GRN 2011 2007 2003
Inner Sydney 29.3% 36.9% 21.2% 47.4% 59.6% 64.1%
  -12.9% 12.0% 0.0% -12.2% -4.6%
Northern Sydney 12.2% 67.6% 14.0% 19.2% 35.5% 42.3%
  -8.8% 16.2% 2.5% -16.2% -6.9%
Western Sydney 41.3% 40.4% 6.9% 50.6% 68.3% 71.5%
  -16.3% 16.2% 0.9% -17.7% -3.2%
Southern Sydney 35.1% 49.6% 8.7% 42.5% 56.7% 62.2%
  -12.1% 13.6% 1.5% -14.3% -5.4%
Outer Sydney 24.7% 53.0% 8.1% 34.2% 57.8% 60.8%
  -23.5% 17.3% 1.3% -23.6% -3.0%
SYDNEY 28.5% 50.7% 11.1% 37.9% 55.3% 59.9%
-14.5% 15.7% 1.6% -17.5% -4.5%
Central Coast 28.7% 51.5% 12.0% 37.6% 51.9% 57.5%
  -12.9% 12.9% 4.8% -14.3% -5.6%
Hunter Region 30.9% 36.1% 8.8% 47.0% 59.8% 60.5%
  -12.9% 12.6% -0.3% -12.8% -0.7%
Illawarra 35.2% 34.5% 12.3% 51.5% 68.7% 69.6%
  -19.0% 12.0% 1.7% -17.2% -0.9%
North Coast 12.7% 60.7% 13.1% 22.9% 35.9% 41.5%
  -11.7% 12.4% 2.6% -13.0% -5.6%
Regional 16.5% 59.7% 6.1% 25.8% 36.8% 40.6%
  -11.0% 29.5% 0.5% -11.0% -3.8%
NON-SYDNEY 22.7% 50.8% 9.1% 34.2% 46.1% 48.5%
-14.5% 15.7% 1.6% -11.9% -2.4%

Inner Sydney (6 seats). All seats had been held by Labor except Sydney; now they have lost Drummoyne and Coogee to the Liberals and are tussling with the Greens for Balmain and Marrickville (though they are probably home and hosed in the latter). Labor got pummelled by a 23.9 per cent swing in Drummoyne, and in the mid-teens in Heffron and Coogee. However, their vote held up a lot better where the campaign had been framed in the Labor-versus-Greens terms. The method I’ve used for approximating Labor-versus-Liberal two-party results doesn’t work so well when non-major parties take a big share of the vote, which applies to most of this area.

Northern Sydney (15 seats). By this I mean “the Liberal area” (albeit that it includes Ryde, which Labor won in 2007 – but which now has a Liberal margin of 26 per cent), and to this end I’ve stretched the definition of northern Sydney to include Vaucluse. This area recorded Labor’s lowest primary vote swing simply because they had the least to lose here – a swing as big as in outer Sydney would have sent them beyond the twilight zone and into negative territory.

Western Sydney (19 seats). All were held by Labor going into the election: now they’ve lost Camden, Campbelltown, Granville, Londonderry, Parramatta, Smithfield and Strathfield, and are going down to the wire in East Hills. The two worst swings were in seats they retained: Cabramatta and Lakemba. The 9.1 per cent swing in Macquarie Fields was about 5 per cent better than anything else in the region, and probably has something to do with the unusually big swing last time.

Southern Sydney (6 seats). This includes Liberal-held Cronulla and five Labor held-seats in the St George/Sutherland/Maroubra area. Labor has lost Miranda, Rockdale and probably Oatley. Swings in the Labor seats were in the 13 to 15 per cent range except Miranda, where a very slight margin was annihilated by a 21.8 per cent swing.

Outer Sydney (6 seats). The new suburbs are always the most volatile, and the 23.6 per cent two-party swing reflects this. Four of the seats recorded swings in the 20s, peaking with Riverstone at a giddy 29.9 per cent. Labor won all six seats at the 2007 election – now there are Liberal margins ranging from 4.7 per cent in Blue Mountains to 24.8 per cent in Menai.

Central Coast (4 seats). Featuring Terrigal, which the Liberals already held, and Gosford, Wyong and The Entrance, which they didn’t before but do now. Labor suffered a tellingly smaller swing in Wyong (9.5 per cent), where member David Harris stood and fought, than in Gosford (16.5 per cent) and The Entrance (17.1 per cent) which were vacated by sitting members.

Hunter Region (8 seats). Previously six Labor seats, one Liberal seat and an independent seat, now five Liberal seats, two Labor seats are an independent. Newcastle, Charlestown, Maitland and Swansea went Liberal, while Cessnock and Wallsend stayed Labor. None of the independents who were being touted proved a serious contender: Newcastle Lord Mayor John Tate managed less than half what he scored when he nearly won the seat in 2007 to finish in fourth place.

Illawarra (5 seats). All Labor before, now two Labor (Shellharbour and Keira), two Liberal (Kiama and Heathcote) with one going down to the wire between Labor member Noreen Hay and independent challenger Gordon Bradbery, who is the only potential new independent.

North Coast (7 seats). Six Nationals seats have become seven with Peter Besseling’s defeat in Port Macquarie.

Regional (17 seats). Previously accounted for two Labor (Bathurst and Monaro) and two independent (Tamworth and Dubbo) seats, now a conservative clean sweep. All four gains have been by the Nationals, most memorably Bathurst with its 36.3 per cent swing. Liberal held seats in this group are Albury, Bega, Goulburn, South Coast and Wagga Wagga).

The 2011 results in the table are based on almost the entire polling booth count, with a couple of booths still outstanding here and there. The swings are in comparison with the comparable figures from the last election. The two-party figures presented above are based on estimates in the many cases that were not Labor-versus-Coalition two-party contests, and are perhaps a little lacking in finesse. I have basically extrapolated the preference flows for the seats where there are Labor-versus-Coalition on to the ones where there aren’t. Independent and minor party preferences appeared to have divide about 24 per cent to Labor and 20 per cent to the Coalition, with 56 per cent exhausting. This compared with 30 per cent to Labor, 20 per cent to the Coalition and 50 per cent exhausting in 2007. The 2011 figure was determined with reference to 63 electorates where there were a) complete polling booth counts, and b) Labor-versus-Coalition preference figures available.

The upper house looks like 11 seats for the Coalition, five for Labor, three for the Greens and one each for Shooters and Fishers and the Christian Democratic Party, although Labor could perhaps yet poach the third Greens’ seat. If not, the numbers in the chamber will be Coalition 19 (12 Liberals and seven Nationals), Labor 14, Greens five, Shooters and Fishers two, Christian Democratic Party two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Like wow — wipeout”

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  1. There’s been a couple of posts about Labor ministers resigning over scandals which the MSM whipped into a feeding frenzy (Bob Ellis spends a fair portion of his article on the double standards of the MSM regarding this).

    David Campbell’s continued esteem in this region, both as MLA and Mayor, was evidenced by IRIS polls taken after he resigned as Minister (but was still intending to run for Keira) showing only a slight loss of support, going against the statewide trend.

    For those who still have some regard for David, he campaigned tirelessly throughout Ryan Park’s campaign, which was a major factor in Labor retaining Keira with a 2PP of nearly 55% at this point.

    The final IRIS opinion poll reckoned the seat was 50-50 2PP, and their poll a fortnight previously had Park behind Libs’ John Dorahy (local “legend” as Illawarra Steelers’ Captain) 48-52.

  2. Rosa

    [If Keneally goes to Federal politics, does her husband get the state seat???]

    That seems to be the natural order of the ALP these days!

    And there are two sons who could inherit both seats in the future!

  3. [If Keneally goes to Federal politics, does her husband get the state seat???

    That seems to be the natural order of the ALP these days!]
    Really? Who else has done that? Serious question.

  4. [And there are two sons who could inherit both seats in the future!]


    You’ll be pleased then that the Morris family reign in the Hunter has come to an end, with young Matthew Morris losing Charlestown with a 25% swing.

  5. Beyond the sheer awesomeness of the sweep against the ALP the micro detail of the individual seats reveals a great diversity of swings, including a couple of seats in which there was a swing against the coalition. No joy for Labor though, in both Pittwater and Wagga Wagga the intervention of an independent resulted in a swing against the sitting member.

    Political scientists can have a field day trolling through the diversity of the swings.

    On a related issue, one of the complaints by victorian ALP supporters was that the Greens were not challenging the Liberals, simply trying to take seats of the ALP.

    The political geography of Sydney is quite different – while the Greens have no chance of winning coalition seats it simply is now the case that in Vaucluse and the north Shore, as well as the far north coast the two party count in future will be between Coalition and the Greens. Labor voters in north shore seats are starting to become an endagnered species.

  6. Political dynasties are not necessarily bad.

    Winston Churchill, son of Lord Randolph, Kim Beazley, son of Kim senior, Simon Crean, son of Frank, spring readily to mind as more than useful operators.

    Current federal minister Mark Butler has a couple of Liberal state premiers in his bloodlines.

  7. The sons and daughters of Askin are back in. Hooray. We shall learn again the cost of a philosophy that puts a price on everything and a value on nothing.

  8. By the way, on latest figues it doesn’t look as if Nathan Rees will make it. This further depletes the Laboir gene pool.

    A second coming from here would challenge JC Himself.

  9. Gary

    Try this as an example:

    Jack Ferguson – by all accounts a good bloke now deceased and former Deputy Premier of NSW
    Laurie Ferguson – eldest son Federal MP
    Martin Ferguson – second son Federal MP
    Andrew Ferguson – third son on the Upper House ticket at this State Election
    Daughter – married to Paul Lynch State MP
    Laurie’s step daughter – NSW Upper House

    I am not wanting to impugn by listing this but that is how it is!

  10. Maybe labor should enact a rule which says that there will be no pre-selection for:

    1. Political staffers; and
    2. Union officials.

    Further, you have to have worked in the real world for fifteen years.

  11. Rosa 848
    I am not going to swear to this but believe NBN will start rolling out within the year on the midnorth coast of NSW
    Here’s hoping

  12. Thanks Mari. I read somewhere that it is likely the NBN will go past about a million homes before the next election (if on schedule). Surely Oakeshott will be factoring that into his calculations.

  13. rosa – 848

    Last I heard Coffs Harbour was to be the regional hub for the next stage of the NBN roll-out. That was in July last year when NBN CO announced 19 locations. It means Port Macquarie electorate will benefit, as will places as far north as the Gold Coast and south to Great Lakes.

    Construction was to start in the second quarter of this year. I haven’t heard anything further.

  14. [Gary

    Try this as an example:

    Jack Ferguson – by all accounts a good bloke now deceased and former Deputy Premier of NSW
    Laurie Ferguson – eldest son Federal MP
    Martin Ferguson – second son Federal MP
    Andrew Ferguson – third son on the Upper House ticket at this State Election
    Daughter – married to Paul Lynch State MP
    Laurie’s step daughter – NSW Upper House

    I am not wanting to impugn by listing this but that is how it is!]
    Thanks MTBW. That’s quite a list.

  15. LEONE – Much appreciated. But, of course, PMacquarie won’t get it if Oakey does a backflip and gives Tone a chance to “destroy” the NBN. Another reason why Oakey would be nuts to side with the libs.

  16. rosa and mari –
    Oakeshott will be able to claim a bit of credit for the NBN, when it finally arrives, but that won’t impress a lot of voters. The rusted-on Nats would prefer to see no services at all unless they are delivered by the Coalition. Some of the comments from these people on the Port Macquarie News website in rsponse to articles about the hospital funding beggar belief. If Oakeshott engineered the second coming of Christ they’d whine about it because the Nats hadn’t arranged it.

    The silly thing is if we waited for the National Party to provide anything we’d still be driving on rutted waggon tracks, using smoke signals to communicate and landing at Port Macquarie airport in Tiger Moths.

  17. I agree Leonie, same here about the NBN,” we don’t need it” just a big waste of time, there is a mindset, although I was talking to a man who knows because of his job and he told me before the last federal election that although he is very conservative he was changing his vote.
    Other thing Essential is now 52-48 Coalition /Labour so have gone up another 1%, which I guess means on 2 weeks roll ing average ALP is steadily improving, but CT approval has gone down, of well can’t win everything

  18. [If John Robertson is the answer then Labor is asking the wRONg question.]
    Amigo you are very wise (and always amusing :kiss: )

  19. The PM didn’t mention the CT this morning instead refered to it as occurances in last few weeks of NSW election.
    Still denying it had any effect in the election.
    Bob Hawke and Nate Rees disagree with her.

    Labor becoming the party of denial. Call anyone who disagrees redneck minorities.
    With the polls showing 50/50 that’s a whole lot of minorties.

  20. Posted on other thread but in Balmain

    [Some of the prepolls have now been counted. 33,543 votes counted

    10,923 falk
    10,229 firth
    10,217 parker

    So 12 votes in it.]

  21. I think Robertson is the answer for the ALP, because the ALP leader is not going to last the full term (see Brandon Nelson) So better to get rid of Robertson to ensure the ALP will never take him to an election and replace him with someone electable in 3 years time

  22. To rosa (868), this is from the other thread:

    Toongabbie. Nathan Rees led by 409 with the counting of polling booth votes, but he’s down 16 with the addition of 945 pre-polls and institution votes.

  23. I am surprised that there is no interest in Essential Poll, showing ALP up 1%, comeon we have to have some better news!!!!! to lift our spirits

  24. [I am surprised that there is no interest in Essential Poll, showing ALP up 1%, comeon we have to have some better news!!!!! to lift our spirits]

    I suspect 52-48 coalition is about where we are at present and that’s ok. There’s a long way to go and Tone’s going to find the terrain increasingly rocky.

    Having a genuine Labor government in Canberra that’s getting things done and has a good prospect of being re-elected in two and a half years time is enough to keep my spirits riding high at present. Let’s not get too caught up in the lumps and bumps along the way.

  25. Thanks Darn 882, I feel a bit more optimistic that they are slowly going the right way, but agree with you about another 2 1/2 years to keep going up

  26. Let me get this right:
    1. Labor is a minority govt;
    2. The PM has broken a major election pledge;
    3. The PM is espousing a (supposedly) unpopular carbon tax
    4. Labor was (at the time of the poll) in power in NSW

    and the libs can only pull a few measley points ahead.

    Give me a break. Tone must be worried he’s going to get toe-tagged at any minute.

    My guess is that his strategy is to flip one or two of the independents before his own party flips him – which ain’t much of a strategy.

    All goes to show, doesn’t it, that if labor is going to attack Tone as a phoney it can’t be phoney itself. Having a few policies (even unpopular ones) is better than none at all.

  27. apparently the 3rd Green candidate has fallen behind Pauline Hanson by .4077 to .4091 quota.

    The last seat might still go to Pauline

  28. [Gary

    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    If Keneally goes to Federal politics, does her husband get the state seat???

    That seems to be the natural order of the ALP these days!

    Really? Who else has done that? Serious question.

    On the other side:

    Sir Charles and Richard Court.
    Doug and Larry Anthony.
    Alexander Downer Snr & Jnr.

  29. dovif – 878
    I agree. Robertson will be the sacrifical leader you have until the stench from an election loss dies down and until everyone else finds their knives and sharpens them. Just like Brendan Nelson.

  30. Both the Anthonys and the Downers were triple dynasties:

    Larry Anthony Sr (MHR 1937-57)
    Doug Anthony (MHR 1957-84)
    Larry Anthony Jr (MHR 1996-2004)

    Sir John Downer (Senator 1901-03)
    Sir Alexander Downer (MHR 1949-64)
    Alexander Downer (MHR 1984-2008)

  31. kevrenor

    At the Moment 10 Lib 5 ALP and 2 Greens will be elected leaving 4 seats

    Which is likely to be filled by

    Shooters .8099
    CDP .6776
    Lib 11th .6653
    Pauline .4091
    Greens 3rd .4077
    ALP 6th .3468

    Unless a strong preference flows from the ALP to the Greens’ 3rd candidate

    The elimination of the 3rd Greens will elect CDP, Shooters, Lib 11th and Pauline

  32. God, NSW can’t have been dumb enough to elect Hanson? Surely not. What an ornament to the upper house she’ll be. The bars around Macquarie Street should be happy though, if her brief spell in Canberra is any indication that’s where she’ll spend her time. Because everything that female does is a circus they could even advertise her like a sideshow –‘Come in and see a real live Red-necked Redheaded Idiot. Only one in captivity!’.

  33. [rosa

    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    Frank – why would I want to compare the labor party with the liberal party?

    cos you asked about Dynasties.

    Fact is both sides have them.

    Pity it doesn’t fit with your little agenda.

  34. The statewide swing to the Greens is diminishing as the count progresses. Currently sitting on less than 1% in the LH, with their overall vote share in single digit figures.

  35. Peter Morris in Charlestown only to be followed after his retirement by his son Matthew Morris.

    And I had forgotten about the brother and sister act of the Breretons. Laurie Federal for Kingsford Smith and Deidre in State seat of Heffron.

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