Like wow — wipeout

Surveying the damage region by region:

  2011 PRIMARY VOTE ALP 2PP
  ALP L-NP GRN 2011 2007 2003
Inner Sydney 29.3% 36.9% 21.2% 47.4% 59.6% 64.1%
  -12.9% 12.0% 0.0% -12.2% -4.6%
Northern Sydney 12.2% 67.6% 14.0% 19.2% 35.5% 42.3%
  -8.8% 16.2% 2.5% -16.2% -6.9%
Western Sydney 41.3% 40.4% 6.9% 50.6% 68.3% 71.5%
  -16.3% 16.2% 0.9% -17.7% -3.2%
Southern Sydney 35.1% 49.6% 8.7% 42.5% 56.7% 62.2%
  -12.1% 13.6% 1.5% -14.3% -5.4%
Outer Sydney 24.7% 53.0% 8.1% 34.2% 57.8% 60.8%
  -23.5% 17.3% 1.3% -23.6% -3.0%
SYDNEY 28.5% 50.7% 11.1% 37.9% 55.3% 59.9%
-14.5% 15.7% 1.6% -17.5% -4.5%
Central Coast 28.7% 51.5% 12.0% 37.6% 51.9% 57.5%
  -12.9% 12.9% 4.8% -14.3% -5.6%
Hunter Region 30.9% 36.1% 8.8% 47.0% 59.8% 60.5%
  -12.9% 12.6% -0.3% -12.8% -0.7%
Illawarra 35.2% 34.5% 12.3% 51.5% 68.7% 69.6%
  -19.0% 12.0% 1.7% -17.2% -0.9%
North Coast 12.7% 60.7% 13.1% 22.9% 35.9% 41.5%
  -11.7% 12.4% 2.6% -13.0% -5.6%
Regional 16.5% 59.7% 6.1% 25.8% 36.8% 40.6%
  -11.0% 29.5% 0.5% -11.0% -3.8%
NON-SYDNEY 22.7% 50.8% 9.1% 34.2% 46.1% 48.5%
-14.5% 15.7% 1.6% -11.9% -2.4%

Inner Sydney (6 seats). All seats had been held by Labor except Sydney; now they have lost Drummoyne and Coogee to the Liberals and are tussling with the Greens for Balmain and Marrickville (though they are probably home and hosed in the latter). Labor got pummelled by a 23.9 per cent swing in Drummoyne, and in the mid-teens in Heffron and Coogee. However, their vote held up a lot better where the campaign had been framed in the Labor-versus-Greens terms. The method I’ve used for approximating Labor-versus-Liberal two-party results doesn’t work so well when non-major parties take a big share of the vote, which applies to most of this area.

Northern Sydney (15 seats). By this I mean “the Liberal area” (albeit that it includes Ryde, which Labor won in 2007 – but which now has a Liberal margin of 26 per cent), and to this end I’ve stretched the definition of northern Sydney to include Vaucluse. This area recorded Labor’s lowest primary vote swing simply because they had the least to lose here – a swing as big as in outer Sydney would have sent them beyond the twilight zone and into negative territory.

Western Sydney (19 seats). All were held by Labor going into the election: now they’ve lost Camden, Campbelltown, Granville, Londonderry, Parramatta, Smithfield and Strathfield, and are going down to the wire in East Hills. The two worst swings were in seats they retained: Cabramatta and Lakemba. The 9.1 per cent swing in Macquarie Fields was about 5 per cent better than anything else in the region, and probably has something to do with the unusually big swing last time.

Southern Sydney (6 seats). This includes Liberal-held Cronulla and five Labor held-seats in the St George/Sutherland/Maroubra area. Labor has lost Miranda, Rockdale and probably Oatley. Swings in the Labor seats were in the 13 to 15 per cent range except Miranda, where a very slight margin was annihilated by a 21.8 per cent swing.

Outer Sydney (6 seats). The new suburbs are always the most volatile, and the 23.6 per cent two-party swing reflects this. Four of the seats recorded swings in the 20s, peaking with Riverstone at a giddy 29.9 per cent. Labor won all six seats at the 2007 election – now there are Liberal margins ranging from 4.7 per cent in Blue Mountains to 24.8 per cent in Menai.

Central Coast (4 seats). Featuring Terrigal, which the Liberals already held, and Gosford, Wyong and The Entrance, which they didn’t before but do now. Labor suffered a tellingly smaller swing in Wyong (9.5 per cent), where member David Harris stood and fought, than in Gosford (16.5 per cent) and The Entrance (17.1 per cent) which were vacated by sitting members.

Hunter Region (8 seats). Previously six Labor seats, one Liberal seat and an independent seat, now five Liberal seats, two Labor seats are an independent. Newcastle, Charlestown, Maitland and Swansea went Liberal, while Cessnock and Wallsend stayed Labor. None of the independents who were being touted proved a serious contender: Newcastle Lord Mayor John Tate managed less than half what he scored when he nearly won the seat in 2007 to finish in fourth place.

Illawarra (5 seats). All Labor before, now two Labor (Shellharbour and Keira), two Liberal (Kiama and Heathcote) with one going down to the wire between Labor member Noreen Hay and independent challenger Gordon Bradbery, who is the only potential new independent.

North Coast (7 seats). Six Nationals seats have become seven with Peter Besseling’s defeat in Port Macquarie.

Regional (17 seats). Previously accounted for two Labor (Bathurst and Monaro) and two independent (Tamworth and Dubbo) seats, now a conservative clean sweep. All four gains have been by the Nationals, most memorably Bathurst with its 36.3 per cent swing. Liberal held seats in this group are Albury, Bega, Goulburn, South Coast and Wagga Wagga).

The 2011 results in the table are based on almost the entire polling booth count, with a couple of booths still outstanding here and there. The swings are in comparison with the comparable figures from the last election. The two-party figures presented above are based on estimates in the many cases that were not Labor-versus-Coalition two-party contests, and are perhaps a little lacking in finesse. I have basically extrapolated the preference flows for the seats where there are Labor-versus-Coalition on to the ones where there aren’t. Independent and minor party preferences appeared to have divide about 24 per cent to Labor and 20 per cent to the Coalition, with 56 per cent exhausting. This compared with 30 per cent to Labor, 20 per cent to the Coalition and 50 per cent exhausting in 2007. The 2011 figure was determined with reference to 63 electorates where there were a) complete polling booth counts, and b) Labor-versus-Coalition preference figures available.

The upper house looks like 11 seats for the Coalition, five for Labor, three for the Greens and one each for Shooters and Fishers and the Christian Democratic Party, although Labor could perhaps yet poach the third Greens’ seat. If not, the numbers in the chamber will be Coalition 19 (12 Liberals and seven Nationals), Labor 14, Greens five, Shooters and Fishers two, Christian Democratic Party two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Like wow — wipeout”

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  1. The lessons of this election are:

    1. The people can get it wRONg. K2 said the people of NSW always got it RighT. No, they got it all wRONg 4 years ago. They should have kicked out Labor 4 years ago, they didnt. So now it’s purely lashing out at their own self inflicted anger and took revenger. This is no good for Democracy.

    2. The old saying of Opposition doesnt win election that Government loses election is still so true.

    3. There is a political cycle. Like the earthquake and tsunami, there is nothing you can do about it. Before long, there will be wall-to-wall Coalition Govts in the States, and Canberra? Good news for Labor. It’s Newton 3rd Law of Mechanics.

  2. If John Robertson is the question about the Leadership, is he really the answer? Don’t know much about him. How does he present to the public? Perhaps he might be a plus in the western suburbs where Labor needs to do some fence mending.

    Sorry, William, totally disagree that the carbon pricing had anything to do with the result. This has been going to happen for at least 12 months, long before the latest controversy.

  3. [mirandadevine Miranda Devine
    Column’s up: Who’s the extremist now? Vilifying carbon tax protesters… http://bit.ly/9LRwQu
    2 hours ago ]

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @mirandadevine One Nation, League of Rights and Liberal One Nation #auspol There also 1000s & 1000s of “normal” people who support the tax
    22 seconds ago

  4. [Sorry, William, totally disagree that the carbon pricing had anything to do with the result. This has been going to happen for at least 12 months, long before the latest controversy.]

    feeney, agree.

    Gee, Bilbo got it wRONg many times lately, is he trying to rival the King of WRONgs Diog?

  5. Certainly after the novelty of a Coalition state government wears off you can bet the Labor brand will look a bit better federally..

    Coalition voters who mistake this for a ringing endorsement of everything ‘anti-Labor’ are in for a big shock come the next NSW state election.

    It was a change of government out of desperation, and not a single reason other..O’Farell just kept his head down, like any other previous election. Not exactly a desirable ‘choice’ for voters.

  6. Does anyone think this will cause Labor to change? Given what passes for a politician these days I can’t see how, too much self interest and too many favours to pay back!

  7. Random rumblings:

    The “stay and fight” factor almost certainly played a part in St George as well; Oatley, East Hills, and Kogarah all had sitting MPs who have either held on or made a fight of it, whereas vacant Rockdale was swamped.

    Labor would probably be kinda-sorta happy that Libs rather than Indies won those Hunter seats, they SHOULD find it easier to tip out a conservative than an Independent in 2015.

    That said, these new Lib MPs in Labor seats aren’t necessarily “oncers”. We saw after landslides like Vic 1992 or Qld 2001 that sitting MPs can dig in and hold seats for several elections. It would be folly for Labor to assume seats like Campbelltown, Smithfield, Charlestown, Swansea, etc will automatically come back in 2015.

    Fiona Byrne should win some sort of award. It’s quite an achievement to be so extreme Left that even a seat covering Darlington, Newtown, and Marrickville won’t vote for you.

  8. I am not being facetious here: The ALP did well here!

    Given the TPP vote, their usual skills in sandbagging and seat by seat electioneering has saved the furniture. With the generic vote, to get around 20 seats and not lose any to the greens (apparently) is a good thing. Dr McDonald, Carmel, possibly even Verity did extremely well. Whan: bad luck but good show. Lalich: you deserved this shock, this was an unlosable seat and your ineptitude and hopelessness almost accomplished this task (maybe even has, lets see postals).

    And no Hanson! YAY! At least we can all (I think?) celebrate that. Good on you NSW.

    Australian electors got it pretty right yet again.

  9. @9

    This was always going to be one small thing Labor had in their favour. They pretty much abandoned a whole bunch of seats and poured resources into sandbagging Blacktown, Toongabbie, Balmain, Marrickville, Maroubra, etc….whereas the Libs in the end probably didn’t have the ground game in all these safe Labor seats to pull off every one.

  10. …yes I forgot to give Nathan a special mention too. He had a few local factors going against him, but yet again the electors didn’t fall for parochial candidates, and voted on quality not race, religion or anything else. If any ALP member deserved re-election you would have to give that title to Nathan (or perhaps Dr McD??). Nathan said what was wrong, but then didnt stir things around and just quietly went about his business.

  11. Funny that the next wipeout brewing is the Qld LNP. Now we have a Lord Mayor determined to use ratepayers money to campaign while the preselections of the LNP in Ashgrove are closed with him as the only candidate. His Deputy has been selected and still his snout is in the trough.

  12. The Libs had better hope there is not even a whiff of corruption or scandal in their ranks for the next four years. The electorate would be most displeased if there were.

  13. Bowen has it right. When there is anger in the electorate, such anger that they’re prepared to go from Labor directly to the Libs in vast numbers, independents will be caught up in it as well, with the odd exception.

  14. [Does anyone think this will cause Labor to change? Given what passes for a politician these days I can’t see how, too much self interest and too many favours to pay back!]
    I guess what you’re really asking is, does anyone believe the Libs are any different?

  15. Another lesson – Federally speaking – The Gillard Govt will stay its full term. The Undies wouldnt dare to do anything else. The impatient Abbott will have enough to self explode over and over again.

    I predict the Liberals will get rid of him and put back Turnbull as they know Abbott is their biggest liability.

  16. I agree with Finns about the cycle, but you don’t usually get 20% swings even at the bottom of the cycle.

    On the plus side, I don’t see any evidence of a carbon tax factor at work here. The swings, while huge, were not all the same. IMO most of the variation (swings above about 12%) can be tied down to identifiable factors. I may be biased as a transport planner by trade, but I think service inadequacy, especially in health and transport, is an obvious cause of the larger swings in some areas:

    – William has already pointed out where quality local members kept the swing under 12%
    – in Sydney, the highest swings were in areas poorly served by public transport (west, NW) and/or traffic congestion (south) plus inadequate health and hospitals
    – in Hunter and Woolongong, local corruption and scandals were sufficient in number to damage the Labor band for the region
    – the country swing is understandable for what from afar looked a very Sydney-centric government; plus lack of regional services in heath and transport again. E.g. four laning the Pacific Highway still isn’t finished almost 20 years after the commitment to do it.
    – that leaves about a 12% average swing to reflect general feeling of time for a change and anger at the financial dealings, especially the asset sales.

    Given that, I think Eric Roozendaal also has a lot to answer for. Kenneally should have stopped him before the asset sale went through. It was always going to be a defeat, but I think that turned it into a rout.

    I don’t see any prospect of Labor victory in 2015, unless O’Farrell fails to control his cabinet and there are many scandals. The margin is too big to overcome in one election. Besides, while Labor desperately needs to rebuild, some of the best potential reformers are now gone (Firth, Whan) and there is still a lot of dirty laundry to come out when the Liberals open up the books. This has been a secretive government, and a lot of dodgy deals are yet to be exposed.

  17. [Does anyone think this will cause Labor to change? Given what passes for a politician these days I can’t see how, too much self interest and too many favors to pay back!]
    That is the big question. We will see – the party machine will have to decide how it intends to operate.

    Causes for optimism – many self-serving apparachiks will have to depart to find jobs elsewhere. The value of Labor business lobbying in NSW is now zero. They must be broke after this election (low votes = low $), so they almost have to rebuild a base.

    Causes for pessimism – the same faction that wrecked the place still has the most members and presumably office holders

    I assume that they will be given 12 months to clean ship. If they don’t Federal intervention is then the only hope. If that doesn’t happen either, then the Libs will be power for over a decade.

    Finally (pessimistically) anyone who thinks that deep cuts to the public service will get O’Farrell to lose should remember Jeff Kennett. He got reelected after the cuts, and only lost when he took it for granted.

  18. [Dr McDonald or Nathan Rees needs to be ALP leader. If Robertson takes the job the ALP has learnt nothing.]
    I agree – more of the same.

  19. Thanks Steve – what a letter! So Keating shared the same view of Robertson as Mod Lib and myself.

    The really stupid thing about the opposition to the privatisation now, is that it will continue anyway under the Libs, but with far less sympathy for workers who lose their jobs. Riordan and Robertson may think they have fought for their members, but they have not done them any favors in the long run.

  20. [Gary: True, but there is no mistaking the message here for Oaky federally:

    “bye bye”]
    I don’t believe that for one moent. It doesn’t make sense to agree with what Bowen says then make the dogmatic statement that Oakshott is history.

  21. Gary: I was just agreeing with the view that this was an election about getting rid of NSW ALP. However, you cant miss the message for Oaky (via Besseling), and that message was “we are a conservative seat”. Look at the Tablelands 10% swing, then look at Port 35% swing.

    How do you interpret that?

  22. quantize

    not a ringing endorsement?

    LOL

    Swing is 16% and they ALL went to the Liberals, it did not go to the Greens. IN places like Newcastle, where it was expected to go to the Independants it went to Liberals too.

    We had 30% swing in seats and all the primary lost went to the Liberals

  23. [- in Sydney, the highest swings were in areas poorly served by public transport (west, NW) and/or traffic congestion (south) plus inadequate health and hospitals]

    And what exactly is it that BO has promised to do about such services in these areas?

    In 12 months BO will start to smell like BO throughout Western Sydney. Federal Labor can look forward to a boost in NSW. After all BO has won many seats that he knows he has no chance of retaining at the next election. Why would he waste finances or effect in those electorates. It simply won’t happen.

  24. Insiders talking about why the Greens did not do well. Consensus seems to be that it was because they were more socialistic/radical that Greens in other states.

  25. dovif,

    That was last election. You Libs always live in the past.

    Now the Libs have to do rather than whine.

  26. Insiders saying that low income, impermanent jobs, self-employed people in very small business are not interested in carbon tax or other big end of town issues.

  27. Reading Paul Keating’s letter one would have to say:

    1)Very Insightful.
    2)NSW labor will be reformed if Keating has any say in it.

    Mod Lib

    Like it or not traditionally the states and federally are held by the different parties which would suggest:

    1) The electorate are quite capable of walking and chewing gum ( state and federal issues are different).
    2) We probable like it like that.

    This is a good result for Gillard.

  28. [Gary: I was just agreeing with the view that this was an election about getting rid of NSW ALP. However, you cant miss the message for Oaky (via Besseling), and that message was “we are a conservative seat”. Look at the Tablelands 10% swing, then look at Port 35% swing.

    How do you interpret that?]
    I’ve already told you how I interpret it. That is –
    [Bowen has it right. When there is anger in the electorate, such anger that they’re prepared to go from Labor directly to the Libs in vast numbers, independents will be caught up in it as well, with the odd exception.]

  29. Crabbe
    Saying that the carbon tax has become a sort of reinforcement of the feeling that Labor has forgotten its little people’s interest in things like electricity prices. The electricity sell-off didn’t help in this context.

  30. Insiders – who finances Gerard Henderson, so loud and busy posturing on inner city financially secure voters? Is it the fact he is simply a PR hack for big business vested interests because he refuses to release Sydney Institute funding sources?

    How can this be abc balance? Havng a potentially secretly funded PR right wing policy machine man on a tax payer funded platform? At least the News Corp cronies are transparently for their corporation.

  31. With such a massive mandate BO has no excuses for failing to fix everything that people see as broken in double quick time. 😉

    Maybe a closer result would have dampened expectations a little.

  32. I strategically missed O’Farrell’s victory speech last night (was it Churchillian?) but note the following reporting of it this morning:
    [Mr O’Farrell said he would begin the rebuild by establishing Infrastructure NSW as the government’s priority. The new agency will be responsible for the Coalition’s cornerstone election promise of building the north-west rail line to ease Sydney’s crippling road congestion. Other priority projects will include the south-west rail line, widening the M5 East motorway and a new convention centre for Sydney by 2015.]
    The roads and rail will cost $10+ billion which NSW doesn’t have. The convention centre won’t pay for itself. Federal $ will be essential, but State budget will be under enormous pressure, even if NSW only pay for 25% of the cost.
    [”Giving schools, hospitals and police the staff they need will also demonstrate in a practical way to people that we’re serious about improving services. We intend to restore confidence in government by delivering on our promises, big and small. That will show people there is real change happening.”]
    So if O’Farrell doesn’t want to reduce the number of teachers, nurses and police, but has to find money overall, what happens? There must be a massive purge of departmental bureaucracies in Sydney. Just when expertise in some areas, like transport, actually needs to be rebuilt so they can deliver projects better. I wouldn’t like to be a Sydney Rail station staff right now…

  33. [How can this be abc balance? Havng a potentially secretly funded PR right wing policy machine man on a tax payer funded platform? At least the News Corp cronies are transparently for their corporation.]
    It is BALANCED Tom – both right wing and far right views presented.

  34. [I wouldn’t like to be a Sydney Rail station staff right now]

    Unless you had been hanging out for a golden handshake.

  35. [with the odd exception.]

    Gary:

    Independent seats (swings against them)
    +14.5% Lake Macquarie
    -10% Sydney
    -10.4% Northern tablelands
    -12.0% Tamworth
    -14.5% Dubbo

    -34.6% Port Macquaire

    Take from that whatever message you wish and we will see who is right next election

  36. Oakes quotes Keating, attacking Robbo, ignoring Keating’s direct financial conflict of intrest as an investment bank employee, who falsely argued a wrong asset profile in the SMH opinion pages – only $$10-15 BILLION incorrect asset profile (deliberately confusing 1997, 2007 and 2008 versions of the privatisation proposals).

    That’s a big F for Fail to Laurie Oakes. Notable for it’s rarity.

    What is most ironic is the general consensus in the Sheep Media that Enron and the GFC never happened and privatisation must be great because big corporations say so. Go the sheep.

    Lastly Christian Kerr had the only sensible thing to say in Saturday press re burden of a huge back bench. The optics of the BOF, political wife, kids, Gladys etc was one of very subdued. No triumphalism there. Relief maybe. But what I detect actually is fear – fear of the monster that is NSW structural problems of hyper economic immigration and million car purchases a year, and the monster of back bench competitive ambition.

    On the CK analysis BOF will not last one election as leader. Which is a bit sad for a ex Ursula guy. BOF is Ursula (then run by nuns), and Abbott is John 23rd – crusader misogynist?

  37. [Gary:

    Independent seats (swings against them)
    +14.5% Lake Macquarie
    -10% Sydney
    -10.4% Northern tablelands
    -12.0% Tamworth
    -14.5% Dubbo

    -34.6% Port Macquaire

    Take from that whatever message you wish and we will see who is right next election]
    Thanks for making Bowen’s point.

  38. Did Paul Pearce survive in Coogee?

    I met bubble head Falk lobbying door to door at my work in Rozelle. In the abc cross he didn’t get the question ‘how green are you?” in an obviously green minded electorate.

    Maire Sheehan has alot to answer for splitting the Green vote in Balmain?

  39. Hockey on Insiders saying that if he had not had business to do, he would have gone out to the revolting peoples rally.

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