11.33pm. The count in Granville is finally progressing, and the Liberals are staying in front: 39.7 per cent counted, 2.4 per cent ahead on the ABC projection, 3.0 per cent ahead on the two-candidate count of 19 out of 27 booths.
10.33pm. Oh yeah, the upper house. We’ve got about 37 per cent counted, and I think we’re looking at Coalition 11, Labor five, Greens three and one apiece for the Fred Nile group (on 3.1 per cent) and Shooters and Fishers (on 3.8 per cent). Pauline Hanson and John Hatton are falling short on 1.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent.
10.21pm. Seats still in play. Balmain, where Labor must first keep their nose in front of the Greens and then run down the Liberals on preferences which I imagine they would. Macquarie Fields (Labor versus Liberal) and Wollongong (Labor versus independent) could go either way. The Liberals have their nose ahead in Oatley and Swansea, and late counting being what it is would probably be favoured to stay there. Labor with their nose in front in Toongabbie and East Hills. Snail’s pace count makes Granville impossible to call. That means I’ve got Liberal on 48, Nationals on 18, Labor on 16 and independents on two, plus eight doubtful. The doubtful seats include six Labor-versus-Liberal, one Labor-versus-independent and one Labor-Liberal-Greens.
10.02pm. Carmel Tebbutt looks home and hosed: 1.8 per cent ahead on the ABC projection, 1.9 per cent ahead on the two-candidate count of 24 booths out of 27: 13,109 to 12,162 in raw terms.
9.56pm. Slow count in Granville for some reason.
9.53pm. The ABC computer is projecting a 1.4 per cent win by the indepenent in Wollongong, but projections in Labor-versus-independent contests can be a bit speculative. On the raw two-candidate figure, with 22 booths added out of 29, he leads by 0.2 per cent. Against that, major parties tend to do better in late counting.
9.52pm. Wollongong: Luke Foley sounding optimistic about holding now.
9.28pm. Macquarie Fields: as the count has swollen from 50.5 to 71 per cent, the ABC projection has been locked on 50-50. No update for a while on the actual two-party count.
9.23pm. Monaro: lost sight of this one, but it looks like the Nationals are going to get up.
9.22pm. Toongabbie: I beg your pardon, my previous two mentions of this said he was behind – he is in fact ahead.
9.14pm. Macquarie Fields: the raw notional two-candidate count has the Liberals ahead by 2.0 per cent, but it’s lineball on the ABC projection.
9.05pm. Macquarie Fields: Labor has chased down a 0.6 per cent deficit as the count has risen from 35.6 to 50.5 per cent, with the result now lineball.
9.02pm. Kristina Keneally appears to make the mother of all concession speeches.
9.01pm. Oatley: Labor’s lead has shrunk from 1.7 to 0.6 per cent with only a small increase in the count, from 67.2 to 69.9 per cent.
8.57pm. Toongabbie: an increase in the count from 57.7 to 65.2 per cent has seen Nathan Rees’s deficit shrink from 0.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
8.55pm. Labor has made up a bit of ground in Swansea: count up from 69.3 to 72.5 per cent, Liberal lead down from 1.1 per cent to 0.7 per cent.
8.54pm. Labor’s lead in Kogarah has narrowed: count up from 52 to 60.2 per cent, lead down from 1.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
8.53pm. The Liberals have moved further ahead in Newcastle: count up from 62.9 to 70.3 per cent, lead up from 0.9 to 1.2 per cent.
8.50pm. Luke Foley confident Labor will win Marrickville, and Antony Green concurring. Interesting to see what Liberal preferences do.
8.34pm. Nathan Rees is apparently planning to speak: the ABC computer is actually projecting a 0.8 per cent lead for the Liberals in his seat of Toongabbie, although he has a 1.2 per cent lead on the raw two-party count of 11 booths.
8.26pm. It’s been noted the NSWEC site has Labor’s Matt Brown 4.5 per cent in front in Kiama, but this is the 2CP count from only four booths: based on the 19 booths that have submitted primary votes, the ABC computer is projecting a Liberal margin of 3.4 per cent.
8.25pm. The ABC computer has the Greens ahead in Balmain by 1.8 per cent, which I think is a projection from a primary vote count of 15 booths. There are 2PP results from four booths, and these add up to a 0.5 per cent Greens lead. However, this assumes Labor and the Greens will be the final two candidates, which looks unlikely: the figures are Liberal 33.3, Labor 30.4, Greens 30.0. I would assume that whichever out of Labor or the Greens finishes third will deliver the seat to the other on their preferences, but wiser heads than mine consider the Liberals still in the hunt.
8.19pm. The Greens really do have to ask themselves how, with Labor losing 13.3 per cent of their primary vote, they only managed to pick up 1.5 per cent.
8.15pm. Exit poll looking good. Phone pollsters seem to have again encountered the Labor-too-low, Greens-too-high issue we saw at the federal and Victorian elections.
8.13pm. Gladys Berejiklian was writing off the ABC results from Campbelltown earlier, but has evidently since been corrected. Peter Besseling has conceded defeat in Port Macquarie.
8.10pm. Labor at least has a high enough primary vote that it can hope for a sixth seat in the upper house.
8.09pm. Antony thinks the independent might still be a show in Blue Mountains.
8.05pm. Nationals margin in Port Macquarie now out to 6.9 per cent.
8.00pm. Hunter: Liberals still looking good in Newcastle, can add Charlestown as well now that significant figures are in, and are only slightly behind in Swansea. Yet Wallsend and Cessnock have swung very modestly and will stay with Labor.
7.59pm. Not sure what the story is in Campbelltown: with 21.2 per cent counted the ABC says 26.2 per cent swing and Liberal gain, but it appears that phenomenal swing will not be maintained when the figures are updated.
7.48pm. Labor has fallen into a hole in Monaro: Antony projects to 50.2-49.8. The raw figure of 55.1-44.9 has apparently inspired Sky News commentators to call it for the Nationals, but I believe they are jumping the gun.
7.46pm. Still early, but encouraging results for Nick Lalich in Cabramatta.
7.45pm. I thought Coogee was looking good for the Liberals, but the word is you won’t really be able to tell until Randwick booths are in.
7.44pm. Remarkably close three-way result in Balmain, with Labor on 33.1 per cent, Greens on 31.5 per cent and Liberal on 29.5 per cent. Projected Labor 2PP win by 2.1 per cent, if the Greens stay ahead of the Liberals (and I suppose there’s even a chance Labor could drop to third).
7.42pm. Nats still on track for a modest win in Port Macquarie. Tamworth and Dubbo in the bag. Torbay safe in Northern Tablelands, Greg Piper safe in Lake Macquarie. Another easy win for Clover Moore in Sydney. As far as I can see the only possible newcomer is Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong, and he is not home and hosed: Labor 36.4 per cent, Bradbery 29.7 per cent, Liberal 18.9 per cent. Bradbery will need strong preferences.
7.37pm. Labor retains: Auburn, Canterbury, Cessnock (amazingly small Nationals swing), Heffron, Liverpool, Monaro, Shellharbour, Wallsend. They are ahead early in Granville, Macquarie Fields, Maroubra and Marrickville. Cabramatta, Fairfield, Keira, Newcastle, Oatley, Kogarah, Swansea, Londonderry and Wyong are too close to call, in most cases leaning away from Labor. Nothing yet from Mount Druitt, almost nothing from Bankstown. I believe they’re looking at the high teens.
7.27pm. 34.6 per cent swing in Bathurst. 33.3 per cent swing in Ryde, compared with the election rather than the by-election. 27.3 per cent in Smithfield. 29.9 per cent in Strathfield. 22.1 per cent swing in Canterbury.
7.25pm. So your money would be on Labor in Marrickville, Liberal in Balmain and nothing for the Greens. Nathan Rees apparently looking set to hold Toongabbie. Massacre at Strathfield.
7.23pm. Nationals looking good in Port Macquarie: 51.4 per cent to Besseling’s 38.2 per cent with 13.7 per cent counted.
7.21pm. Gladys Berejiklian talking of unexpectedly high Liberal vote in Balmain, which would be encouraging for them because they were rated a chance. Luke Foley “excited” about Marrickville: swings of 3 to 5 per cent.
7.21pm. Maitland being called for Liberal.
7.17pm. Hunter: ABC calling Newcastle for Liberal: Lib 44.4, ALP 27.3, Grn 13.4, Ind 10.5. Liberals looking a big show on very early counting in Charlestown. Labor retains Wallsend and Cessnock; no votes from Swansea. Modest performance from touted independent in Wallsend.
7.16pm. A look of awe descends on Antony Green as he speaks of swings between 20 and 30 per cent.
7.15pm. Illawarra: ABC calling Wollongong for independent Gordon Bradbery; Libs gain Kiama and Heathcote; Labor retains Shellharbour; Labor retains Keira, though I’d want to see a few more votes.
7.13pm. ABC calling Port Macquarie for Nats on 4.1 per cent, but I’ll want to see more. Nats 48, Besseling 40.4.
7.11pm. Blue Mountains likely to go Liberal: their candidate well clear on 36.1 per cent with 4.1 per cent counted, Labor and Janet Mays mixing it on 22-23 per cent. Nationals take Bathurst with earth-shaking swing.
7.10pm. Limiting it to over 4 per cent counted, ABC computer calls Bathurst for the Nats, Blue Mountains, Heathcote, Menai and Mulgoa. Lower it to 3 per cent and add Kiama and The Entrance, as well as the Nationals gaining Port Macquarie. Labor seems to have retained Cessnock, though caution there should perhaps be advised. Luke Foley appears to believe Labor will win Marrickville.
7.04pm. No ABC computer results update in 10 minutes.
7.03pm. Steve Whan firming in Monaro.
7.00pm. Berejiklian not sounding confident about Keira. Luke Foley seems pleasantly surprised by the first booth from Marrickville.
6.58pm. ABC calling Oatley for Labor with 3.8 per cent counted, which would be a surprise.
6.58pm. ABC calling Port Macquarie for the Nationals with 3 per cent counted, but it also says “46.1 per cent swing”, so I think there might be a gremlin at work there. However, the Nationals have opened up a lead on the primary vote.
6.57pm. With over 2 per cent now counted, Greg Piper still looks in trouble from the Liberals – but Antony Green is advising extreme caution.
6.56pm. Early figures confirm expectations of John Tate bombing out in Newcastle.
6.55pm. Gladys Berejiklian talking confidently of a better than expected result for Labor, which is interesting as she has no ulterior motive now the votes have been cast.
6.53pm. ABC computer calling lots of Lib gains, but almost invariably with less than 1 per cent counted. I’ll be holding off on acknowledging them until I see 5 per cent counted.
6.52pm. Luke Foley apparently making dark prognostications about Balmain and Marrickville.
6.50pm. First Port Macquarie booth a lot more competitive: Peter Besseling 43.6 per cent, Leslie Williams 44.2 per cent. Projects to 1.3 per cent 2CP lead for Besseling. Only 164 votes counted though.
6.49pm. First booth in Dubbo shows Nationals candidate Troy Grant with a massive lead over independent member Dawn Fardell.
6.48pm. First Maroubra booth swings 13.6 per cent – Labor just in front.
6.47pm. Star performer in comments Eddieward calls Monaro for Labor.
6.46pm. General picture appears to be of a swing in the mid-teens; Labor might have feared worse. Swings: Mulgoa 15%, Heathcote 14%, Blacktown 12%. On that figure, John Robertson would be safe.
6.41pm. Richard Torbay apparently looking good in Northern Tablelands.
6.40pm. Only 100 votes, but the first booth in Londonderry has only swung 9 per cent.
6.36pm. Upper Hunter now merely “independent ahead” with 1.1 per cent counted. Moral of the story is that it takes reasonably solid figures before ABC projections settle down and become reliable.
6.35pm. The ABC computer is likewise calling Upper Hunter an independent gain off 0.7 per cent counted – again, don’t hold your breath. Mulgoa the first Liberal gain chalked up with 15.4 per cent swing and 0.5 per cent counted.
6.34pm. I feel the ABC computer might be jumping the gun a little in calling Blue Mountains an ALP retain on the basis of 0.1 per cent counted.
6.33pm. Antony Green reports only 1-2 per cent swing based on two booths in Monaro. Overall swing though about 12 per cent, recalling that these are small rural booths which are expected to swing relatively modestly.
6.29pm. I always say you know the fat lady is singing when spokespersons of one side or the other start complaining about the media. Julian Watson in comments reports Labor folk on Sky News doing so with a vengeance.
6.27pm. Apparently the exit poll looked at seats in western Sydney, the Sutherland shire in southern Sydney, Central Coast and Lower Hunter. I never know what to make of this are the published figures what we should expect from a statewide result, or from the particular electorates targeted? If the latter, the figures are impossible to read unless you know which electorates were hit, and even then it takes a bit of work to calculate what swings they are pointing to.
6.25pm. I see the NSWEC has a straightforward table of main results for each electorate including swing figures, which is an awfully good idea. However, the swing results presumably won’t be booth matched, so the ABC remains the place to go.
6.20pm. Radio National is apparently reporting that Marrickville MP Carmel Tebbutt is working on her concession of defeat speach.
6pm. Polls have closed.
5.20pm. With 40 minutes to go before polls close, Sky News has published an exit poll which on two-party preferred maintains the iron rigidity of all polling conducted this year: the Coalition leads Labor 64-36. However, the primary vote has Labor at the higher end of market expectations and the Greens lower: Coalition 52 per cent, Labor 27 per cent, Greens 9 per cent. If accurate, that would maintain a pattern of recent polling, where the Labor primary vote tends to get underrated and the Greens overrated.
Bilbo,
Thanks for the commentary. Just got home from a nostalgic Cotton Keays and Morris concert. You are probably too young to know them. The damage has been better than the worst predictions but it is along way for NSW Labor to recover.
Thanks again.
[At the federal election, Labor lost every seat Rudd campaigned in.]
Good thing he didn’t help out in WA then! 😉
[the gong: Bradbury in front on 2pp, seems to have got a lot of preferences
in front 14,608 to alp 14,470
alp in front 37.2 to 29.0 on primary vote
this is looking wierd, but bradbury could well get up]
One major factor in the Gong’s wierdness is that The Greens were the only major party to list a second pref. vote on their HTV handouts. It was given to Bradbery.
[952
scorpio
Posted Sunday, March 27, 2011 at 1:18 am | Permalink
At the federal election, Labor lost every seat Rudd campaigned in.
Good thing he didn’t help out in WA then!
]
Oh you are right 🙂
[paddy2
Posted Sunday, March 27, 2011 at 1:16 am | Permalink
Bilbo,
Thanks for the commentary. Just got home from a nostalgic Cotton Keays and Morris concert. You are probably too young to know them. The damage has been better than the worst predictions but it is along way for NSW Labor to recover.
Thanks again.
]
Mrs Bilbo would’ve heard them on the Wireless while Young William entered this world 🙂
Thought you’d appreciate that one Frank! 😉
Btw, the Libs did recommended no preferences on their HTV card. If they’d listed Bradbery #2, he’d be much further ahead.
Now, I wonder why the Libs would like Noreen Hay to retain her seat? 😉
Robot – “1. You should not have to hope. This is the whole problem. People have been waiting too long…
2. No doubt there has been improvements, but disruptions still occur far too often for the system to be consider anywhere near reliable. Is one moderate delay per week a problem? I think it is.
3. Sure, but this is the only realistic way I think. The line is currently choking.
4. Different Premiers have different plans, half a billion on the Metro that was not to be, etc. If this was planning then I am a Dinstiguished Professor of Quantum Physics. It doesn’t matter people oppose these plans, the government has got to have the gut to carry it through. Additionally, why would people support plans that 1. probably will not solve the problem; and 2. probably will survive only as long as the Premier if not shorter? It is easy to blame NIMBYs and they are a big issue, but the government has to accept a sizeable proportion if not the majority of blame.
For some people, it’s never good enough. The trains are on time, daily. They are cleaned every night. Delays, disruptions and filthiness are caused by passengers. The person who complains about a train slamming the doors shut in their face on Monday is the same person who’d complain about them being late on Tuesday as a result of waiting an extra 7 seconds for every would-be passenger who slept in. One moderate delay weekly? Does not happen.
Barry now has more seats than any Premier ever, right? That’s even more people to piss off with plans to bulldoze their houses and tunnel under their towns. Good luck.
don’t blame me, I voted for Pemulwuy.
GG. Vera.
PK.
Last thought before bed:
It seems to me that a lot of people want the outcomes of socialism (high quality public service and infrastructure) but in a low tax capitalist economy so they set State governments impossible tasks.
Nite all…
Did not attempt to concentrate on NSW losers.
More success in my footy tipping competion. I was more in despair than those who vote (compliments) about the footy. After all, we already knew the NSW result.
I had written off Freo, head bowed in the presence of some of the tipsters, to discover only after they left and to my amazement that Freo won! Breathtaking! As was Geelong, who I also tipped.
Over the moon! I love Freo.
Even though I live in SA (abysmally, did not tip the Crows, who would have thought)
PS I kept most of the lights out.
On the coverage, I thought Mark Riley on Seven was excellent, when Barnaby was saying that the Port Macquarie/Tamworh result had implications for Oakeshott/Windsor, Riley dismissed it and put Barnaby in his place.
Get real, people. Of course Port Macquarie and Tamworth have implications for Oakeshott and Windsor.
Yeah, William.
But who would have picked Freo?
Gweneth
What low tax? The GST has been delivering record revenue to the States for 10 years. Victoria were able to build much more with that revenue then NSW, what happened tonight had nothing to do with tax amount and everything to do with where the money went in NSW
I posted earlier that Port Mac was 50/20/20 National/ALP/Basseling. I do not think tht was very off the mark. It was just the ALP decided to strategically voted for Basseling. National polling never hard them under 47%, this was never a seat to watch
Still pretty amazing that 36% of people who voted for Oakshott at the last election in his power base, voted for the National. Question is whether they will stay National in the next federal election. It was a very strong message for Oakshott
Cabramatta, the Liberals expects a very strong pre-poll vote (about 10k)a bd expect them to strongly favour Dai Le, but probably not enough
The lessons of this election are:
1. The people can get it wRONg. K2 said the people of NSW always got it RighT. No, they got it all wRONg 4 years ago. They should have kicked out Labor 4 years ago, they didnt. So now it’s purely lashing out at their own self inflicted anger and took revenger. This is no good for Democracy.
2. The old saying of Opposition doesnt win election that Government loses election is still so true.
3. There is a political cycle. Like the earthquake and tsunami, there is nothing you can do about it. Before long, there will be wall-to-wall Coalition Govts in the States, and Canberra? Good news for Labor. It’s Newton 3rd Law of Mechanics.
New thread.