Seven days before the axe falls, to the extent that the commencement of pre-polling at the start of this week hasn’t lowered it already. Local level intelligence from around the place:
• The Illawarra Mercury has published two more IRIS Research polls of local electorates, which I presume had samples of 400 and margins of error approaching 5 per cent. In Wollongong, Labor’s Noreen Hay is found to be headed for defeat at the hands of independent Gordon Bradbery, who leads her 54-46. In Keira however it’s 50-50, which compares with a 52-48 Liberal lead in the previous poll conducted early last month.
• Informed local observer Oakeshott Country relates in comments that a new publication by the name of The Port Paper has published a poll of 373 respondents in Port Macquarie conducted by Strategic Marketing. This found independent incumbent Peter Besseling on 34 per cent, Nationals candidate Leslie Williams on 40 per cent and Labor on 14 per cent, which panned out to 50-50 after preferences (although skepticism has been expressed about the methodology used here). Oakeshott Country notes the Nationals are putting a lot of effort into the seat with an emphasis on negative advertising, which is presumably not a sign of over-confidence.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian on the Nationals’ hopes:
The rural and regional-based party is looking to add six seats to its kitty next Saturday. Three presently belong to Labor: Bathurst, in the state’s central west, held by popular retiring MP Gerard Martin; Monaro, on the far south coast, held by Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan; and Cessnock, held by another popular retiring MP, Kerry Hickey. Those would be sweet victories, but not nearly as sweet as defeating three popular rural independents whom the Nationals regard as interlopers: Dawn Fardell in the western seat of Dubbo; Peter Draper in the northern seat of Tamworth; and Peter Besseling in the north coast seat of Port Macquarie. Independent MPs will not feel the full force of the anti-Labor swing. What they might feel instead is their conservative constituents’ wrath at the actions of federal independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, whose seats of Lyne and New England overlap the state seats of Tamworth and Port Macquarie. Stoner plans to leverage Oakeshott’s and Windsor’s support for the minority Gillard government for every vote it’s worth.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian further reports that Labor strategists are “cautiously confident” that Monaro MP Steve Whan can defend his 6.3 per cent margin, which would be an enormous achievement under the circumstances.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a heavy duty campaigning effort has Labor increasingly confident that John Robertson can defend the 22.4 per cent margin in Blacktown.
• Stephen Bromhead, the Nationals candidate to replace the retiring John Turner in their safe seat of Myall Lakes, is in a stable condition in John Hunter Hospital after a car accident.
• Centrebet has issued a breathless press release saying its betting points to a result of Coalition 69, Labor 17, independents five and Greens two.
• Latest additions to the election guide have focused in inner and southern Sydney: Vaucluse, Cronulla, Coogee, Maroubra, Heffron, Drummoyne, Strathfield, Canterbury, Rockdale, Kogarah, Oatley, Parramatta, Sydney and Marrickville.
One note on the Coogee page:
“The Greens have endorsed primary school principal Sue Doran”
Should be “former” primary school principal.
http://www.electionleaflets.org.au/leaflets/759/
In the Sydney profile, you have a word missing:
“The Liberals have endorsed an openly candidate in Adrian Bartels”
“and Cessnock, held by another popular retiring MP, Kerry Hickey”
Should read “UNpopular”
I had pre-polled in the seat of Kogarah/Oatley booth, I can report there was 4 Liberals handing out HTV cards, 2 Greens and no ALP. Looks like ALP are not putting in any effort in Kogarah/Oatley
Eddie
As for tally room, from what I can see, if you are going to say tally room does not report correct information, it seems that Sportbet’s odds are moving in line with them, giving you a great oportunity to make money.
But from what I can tell, the tally room is more accurate then some in here for example, the odds of Williams in Port Mac is $1.40 on most betting agency, so it would be difficult for her to be tailing 20-50 on primary
As for Blue mountains, you can bet on the Liberal candidate on $1.07, so if some of you think this seat will go independant, you will get great odds
I am going to suggest the tally room at least have some support from betting agencies, unlike the “mail” from some in here.
Didn’t you boys finish this cat fight last night?
Jasmine
Sorry, I won’t reply to him anymore. I am here to talk pollitics.
dovif
Are you saying the prepoll booth is for both the seats of Oatley and Kogarah?
I’ll be happy if Noreen Hay and Matt Brown are booted out of parliament – two hacks Labor doesn’t need for its rebuilding phase after the election.
On the other hand, Whan holding on to Monaro would be a minor miracle.
A few interesting phone calls this morning.
The situation in the Blue Mountains continues to interest. Fiona Creed, the Liberal councillor who lost preselection to Rosa Sage has taken to attacking the Liberal candidate. Even more telling was Creed voting with the Janet Mays (independent candidate) bloc at Council last Tuesday.
Sage is denying she is factionally aligned but sources close to Creed and familiar with the preselection have said that Sage’s win was engineered by the local forces of the charming NSW Upper House MP David Clarke. Sage’s public opposition to ethics classes has gone down like a fart in a lift in the community. The general response from people on the ground in all three campaigns to the idea that Sage was polling in mid-fourties was along the lines of “yeah, right, whatever you reckon”.
Sage has publicly outed herself as a climate change sceptic, which should be interesting in a seat like the Blue Mountains. That would probably work well in Penrith, Mulgoa and Londonderry, but the Mountains tends to be a bit more eco-conscious, even amongst conservatives.
The attack ads on this issue have been run by the ALP in the widely read local media.
The ALP candidate Trish Doyle is issuing preferences and, given that she will stay in the count longer than the Greens, these will flow strongly to Mays.
Two separate sources have confirmed that Mays is attracting booth workers from people who have previously worked for Liberal, ALP and Green campaigns.
The Greens vote has collapsed and the Greens are struggling to staff a stall at the Blue Mountains Music Festival this weekend. This is a bad sign as normally that stall has a large number of workers even in non-election years.
Mays is doorknocking and concentrating on the Winmalee/Blaxland end of the electorate. She doesn’t have to win there, but she does have to get something north 20 percent of the vote. In the upper mountains she should top the poll at every booth except maybe Katoomba North.
A flyer turned up in letter boxes this morning urging voters to just vote 1 – it was a Liberal Party leaflet, but you wouldn’t know that unless you knew that the effervescent Mr Needham, who authorised the leaflet, was the NSW Liberal Party campaign directror.
It’s hard to see what logic is permeating this strategy, unless it is to choke preference flows to Mays. Have these leaflets turned up in any other electorate?
Inj Upper Huinter Singleton has turned into the key, with George Souris fronting a Unions NSW forum there last week. Exactly why he would do that if he was comfortably assured of victory remains a mystery. Local power workers – a big part of the local economy – are said to be providing lots of volunteers nfor the campaign of independent Tim Duddy.
Also, Fairfax are reporting that Robbo’s situation in Blacktown is improving – but given the source was John Robertson you may make of that what you will. Given the resources he has been able to pull into there it would be most suprisement if he didn’t fall over the line.
mytwobobsworth
Yes, it was an Oakley Booth, but if you walk 1 street away, you are in Kogarah.
Inside the actual booth, one side does Oakley, the other side does Kogarah
I spoke to the “mayor” of Captains Flat this morning about Steve Whan. If the Nats are to have a chance then this is exactly the sort of demographic they need to pry off Whan. His assessment? Barrillaro (Nat) has no chance. People are sticking, not with Labor, but with Whan.
Barrillaro not exactly hitting much prominence in Cooma where the election is pretty invisible. Cooma will be the key. If Whan can hold on OK here he will get home.
Also, on election night, early counts from Monaro will show big National Party margins. Don’t slash your wrists as these will be small rural booths that have a big National Party vote.
Further hurting Barrillaro is a small campaign by a pro-logging former Bombala councillor who is not directing preferences. He will draw support away from Barillaro rather than Whan.
dovif
And no ALP presence for either candidate? Geez!
A mate of mine who works for a union was pulled off the Oatley campaign and sent to Blacktown about three weeks ago. I think they’ve conceded the whole belt of seats that flank the George’s River and St George.
Has anyone got a long range weather forecast for next Saturday?
[I think they’ve conceded the whole belt of seats that flank the George’s River and St George.]
So that would mean East Hills as well then?
That would mean East Hills as well.
Yeah, Robbo sounded fairly confident about his chances in today’s SMH, but have a dozen other seats been sacrificed to get him over the line in Blacktown?
wow I through east hills was close
I find Robbo quite objectionable. Am I alone in this?
Mytwobobsworth
yes the green was able to (wo)man the booth, the ALP was not, I was surprise, 1st time I have ever remember. Most elections, it is the Liberals who I cannot find in the area
Alan Ashton is apparently cold calling people from what I hear.
Just had a glance at the sportsbet site – they’ve got odds for every lower house seat.
Good & bad news for Labor
Good news: Cessnock is looking better for them, Campbelltown & Macquarie Fields look like wins too. Charlestown is essentially line ball.
Bad news: Dovif is correct about Oatley – Greene falling behind the Libs, & the odds of Bradbury winning Wollongong off Hay have improved markedly.
evan14, that pretty much sums it up. They’ve thrown a brazillion union members into the seat in recent weeks. These would normally be working away elsewhere.
Ms Fortycents, Robbo is certainly a fork in the road for a lot of people – people either seem to love him or hate him, there’s seldom much ambivalence. People like that seldom make successful political leaders (think Latham, Chikarovski, Hanson) yet they can also have success. Howard was allegedly a divisive figure, but his political genius, like Hawke, was his ability to be different things to different people. Basically an ability to bung it on when it needs be.
Robbo had more positions on electricity privatisation than the Karma Sutra, and the deal that Roozendaal rammed through in the end had Robbo’s fingerprints all over it. I’m havinga sense of deja-vu (again!) here, but a few threads ago I pointed out that Robbo was a creature of Bernie Reardon, and if you know Bernie you will know why Robbo is not the man for the times.
That said, he will win Blacktown – and the mythmaking Boswells surrounding him will celebrate it and mark it as having the historical significance of, say, the storming of the Winter Palace or the battle of Gettysburg. I fear he will become a hubris generating machine.
The Bradbery odds will be off the back of today’s punters bible, the Illawarra Mercury poll. I’d take that with several truckloads of salt.
Doyle, the Liberal candidate in Campbelltown is not outside the realms of possibility in getting up, but getting bogans to vote for a copper is a big ask.
Why haven’t the Libs set up a Bogans for Barry campaign?
Nick Bleasdale is a former carpenter, I think – probably the sort of blue collar bloke Labor needs in its ranks.
As for Robbo – I think he’s a hack, and his belligerent attitude against Iemma/Costa’s electricity privatisation proposals 2 years ago cost this government dearly.
It doesn’t say much for the man’s campaigning abilities that he needs to bring in all his union mates to get over the line in an ultra safe seat.
evan14,
maybe he had to do that because of how crap life has become in outer western Sydney under this govermnment, and it’s not as if it was coming off a high standard to start with.
Robbo’s first position on electricity privatisation was right, and this was vindicated by the party vote at the May 2008 conference that voted ten to one to throw it out.
That was the conference was the one where Costa showed that not only was he bipolar, he also had tourettes syndrome, and Kristina Keneally covered herself in glory by saying that if we didn’t sell electricity assets built up over generations for asong little crippled kiddies woiuld be sent off to the poorhouse to live on gruel, or wtte.
It was Iemma and Costa’s dopey decision to continue with NSW Treasury secretary Pearce’s plan to keep Standard and Poor’s happy (They were, of course, the genius’s that figured mortgages held by crack addicts were worth a AAA credit rating) that mired the ALP in the brown stuff. Every leader since pressed on with that fugazi.
And how do you think spending millions on slot car races, visits by His Holiness, garden parties on the Harbour Bridge, chariot races and so forth played out in an electorate where people stand on trains for two hours a day in order to get to work?
Yeah, it was all Robbo’s fault. Sure it was. The rest where just unwitting victims of his infamy.
Meanwhile, enjoy your next power bill.
dovif
[Most elections, it is the Liberals who I cannot find in the area]
Them were the days when ALP members thought they actually had a role to play in the Party! Before the machine men got rid of them all by instituting executive power for themselves.
Eddie: Thought Maysie ran the ball up hard in the Radio National interview yesterday with Peter Mares. Thoughts mate?
eddie
[And how do you think spending millions on slot car races, visits by His Holiness, garden parties on the Harbour Bridge, chariot races and so forth played out in an electorate where people stand on trains for two hours a day in order to get to work?]
The things we forget!
It’s not that long ago, maybe ten years and a bit, when the St George area was very marginal. Garry Punch had to do more triple somersaults with a pike and twist to hang on to Barton in the Hawke years, and Alan Jones, of London public toilet fame, ran for Earlwood in the seventies, which had been held by the former Lib leader (can’t remember his first name) Willis. SO historically there is a Liberal presence in this area and in an age of evaporating voter loyalty any Liberal success these comes as little surprise.
At one stage I counted that Garry Punch had three different positions on Sydney Airport (this is when the second runway was an issue).
That sort of embracing of truthiness was extraordinary for its time, but is pretty much stock-standard in public life now.
It’s no accident that many of the wqarriors of the NSW right came out of this area: Richo, Della, Loosely – as they cut their teeth fighting marginal battles by being better Liberals than the Liberals.
Actually that should read nearly twenty years, not ten
eddie
Eric Willis!
Gary Punch worked against Frank Walker while working for him also!
Gary once phoned me when he was Mayor of Hurstville telling me that there was a future for me in politics if I switched to the right. I never wanted a future in politics but told him that I was honoured that he had taken time out of his busy Mayoral schedule to make the call. Creep!
eddie
it was eric willis
I think the MSM have been glossing over the real problem in the wake of the expected bloodbath for NSW Labor next week. That is, how to keep KKK, “Electric” Eric, et al off the streets. I mean the last thing the NSW voters want is Electric and his former boss wantonly wandering the state, holding indiscriminate pressers etc.
One suggestion was they form half of an Abba revival band. Thoughts anyone?
Good old Eric! There where so many Lib Leaders during that time It’s hard to keep track of them, although it was hard to beat “Tosser” Coleman, who lost his seat while he was leader from memory.
Frank Walker held George’s River by a snake’s scrotum as well too, so it’s not as if the area has been rusted on to the ALP forever. Frank left a wonderful legacy, Paul Lynch being one of them. I remember that a whole bunch of Young Labor people where employed as “community development officers” by the Department of Housing at the time. I wonder the Minister for Housing was.
eric
East Hills though was different!
Sorry eddie called you Eric – old age I guess!
Eddie: Where are your thoughts re the Greens votes across NSW? I thought originally they would be in an excellent position to pick up disaffected Labor voters, but now am not so sure.
Eddie Ward re St George Area
The St George Area (we will define it as the area between the Cooks and Georges River) has always been theoretically politically marginal but has actually voted Labor more often than not (though often by slim majorities). Prior to the 1970s there was a Liberal voting north around Earlwood and Beverley Hills, a Labor voting middle (along the railway line), and again Liberal voting along the Georges River in the south. Since the 1970s, the north has become heavily Labor voting as the Greek community has become wealthier and moved out from Marrickville. Previously the area was conservative, Anglo, middle class (John Howard was from Earlwood). The Anglos moved further out – similar things happened in Ashfield and Burwood. Traditionally the seats have run north – south and the ALP voting north has outvoted the Liberal voting south – the Libs get 70% of the vote in Blakehurst and high votes in suburbs like Lugarno and Oatley. Possibly the seats run north – south is because the local government areas run north – south as well. If the seats ran East – West there would be very safe Liberal and Labor seats at both state and federal level.
Eddie @ 37
Peter Coleman (Peter Costello’s father in law btw) was leader and Fuller in 1978 to Rod Cavalier and in 1981 Bruce McDonald was leader and lost North Shore to Ted Mack. Neville Wran must be the only premier in Australian history to have claimed two seat scalps of opposing leaders – one is rare enough!
… and LOST Fuller …
bestnless at 40,
The Greens’ campaign has been, well, muted is one word you could use, shambles is another. I think they are really suffering from two big factors that are related:
1. The quality of the candidates ranges from poor to mediocre to interesting without being exciting. I doubt many in the community could name the person leading their upper house ticket. Many of their lower house candidates have been parachuted in – the Candidate for Albury comes from Marrickville, while the candidate for Riverstone comes from Turramurra (shades of Rebe Meagher?)! I think this can backfire in regional areas, but is less of an issue in urban areas. They seem to be concentrating on Balmain and Marrickville and as a result their vote (and campaign) everywhere else has decided to go off on long service leave.
Normally having a dud candidate can be overcome by picking and sticking to statewide themes on key issues that press buttons for voters and get them to change their vote, and you won’t find an easier environment to get people to change their vote than right now.
But I just don’t see the Greens cutting through on any policy area. Do they have a transport policy? You wouldn’t know by following this election. And what is this Bill of Rights stuff? All very well and good, but how does a Bill of Rights help me if I’m sitting in casualty and the kids got a broken arm?
This was always going to be a bread-and-butter election because that’s what irritates the citizenry about the current stupids. The basics – hospitals, roads, trains, buses, electricity – have gone to the crapper. It’s like the entire New South Wales government went out to lunch in December 2007 and never came back. In that environment you’d think electricity and public transport would be two areas where they’d be all over the major parties, but they’re not.
Their third candidate for the upper house, Jeremy Buckingham, would’ve be a shoe-in a year ago – but he has gone MIA. Did you know he is the spokesperson for the Murray-Darling basin – the future of which is a very big issue west of the great divide? Has anyone heard peep out of him on this issue at all?
2. The paucity of talent in their ranks is reflected in some candidates utterances which have been, well, interesting on occasion to put it mildly. It’s easy to blame the evil meeja for ignoring The Greens, but there are other ways through the woods to get campaign momentum, and these simply aren’t happening.
By running dud candidates and having a flim-flam messaging that has all the compelling intellectual rigour of a Justin Beiber lyric the Greens ain’t cutting through outside the inner city enclave. They simply aren’t giving disenchanted ALP voters a reason to vote for them. And candidsates like Hatton, the Shooters and even Hanson give Labor voters other places to park their vote.
Concentrating on the two inner-city lower house seats will probably cost them a third upper house seat. And if they don’t win in Marrickville and Balmain it will be a bad result for them all round.
blackburnpseph – that’s a very interesting analysis regarding the north-south alignment of the seats in the greater St George area. Do you think problems with the M5 has impacted on the ALP’s vote in the northern part of the St George area?
Eddie
I am not very familiar with that part of Sydney but I can’t see how the results in say Lakemba would be changed. But East Hills out, I would imagine the M5 being a factor.
eddie
Agreed re Green candidates, do the Greens really believe that Horny goat packer and anti isreali Byrne weren’t going to offend people
As for the M5, this is not an issue in the St George Area, in my opinion it is more of a problem for the East hills, Canterbury, Reversby area. The difference between someone using the M5 to get into the city from the St George area Monday to Friday compared with using the M5 on the weekend is about 10 minute. The M5 bottle neck from King Georges Road to the Southern Cross drive, because the state government did not make it 3 lanes, only affect someone in the west part of the St George district, causing some increase in trafic in Forest Road. Transport is not a major issue in the area
dovif
M5
[in my opinion it is more of a problem for the East hills, Canterbury, Reversby area.]
You are right! My son uses it everyday and is fuming about the M5 being only two lanes. One prang and the whole thing goes into chaos. There are some very unhappy campers in the seat of East Hills and out in the Wattle Grove area and beyond.
Eddie – I know you are not a trained monkey but feel free to give us a call of the card for the NSW election anytime from now on. I want to pit your predictions against the bookmakers and DB on Ben Raue’s site
*slams banana down on floor!*
But I AM a trained monkey!
I was going to go up on the ridge and howl at the big moon for a few hours, but it looks like the neighbours ordered cloudy drizzle in – so I’m stuck inside. So after dinner I’ll do eddieward’s call of the board, which will be about as scientific as working with the other ninety-nine monkeys on typewriters around here.
[The Greens’ campaign has been, well, muted is one word you could use, shambles is another.]
The problem in state elections is that the things most people identify with The Greens are not, in the main, issues with which state governments deal. State government is largely just a bigger form of local government and so rather than having unifying themes state elections — for minor parties anyway, are a combination of local annoyances and angst over matters that have little to do with the left-right divide — better hospitals, transport and schools. Yet unless you are a potentially governing party, nobody cares what your transport or hospital or schools policy is. And in this election, nobody will care what either of the major party’;s hospitals or schools or transport policies are either. Everyone knows the ALP is about to get a flogging and accordingly, nearly everyone is going to vote out of tribal loyalty or hatred of what the other side is culturally. Even if The Greens had developed a credible set of policies and some fabulously appealing candidates — an all star team — breaking out of our traditional support base would be hard.
If the ALP were a credible (though outside) chance of winning, then people would be looking harder at us because they might want our ability to push the ALP to do things that ALP supporters would like. But given the impending LNP landslide, a lot of ALP voters will probably figure there’s no point changing.
Really, I think we ought to have run as the real ALP (rather than the one you’ve had enough of but can’t stand to vote LNP). That strategy was rejected.