Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has it at 50-50, compared with 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour in the year’s first Newspoll a fortnight ago. Julia Gillard has opened a 53-31 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, up from 48-35 last time and basically back where it was at the end of last year. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes comes good on the primary vote figures: Labor up four points to 36 per cent (and didn’t they need that), the Coalition down three to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 13 per cent. Personal ratings are even better for the government: Julia Gillard’s approval is up five points to 50 per cent and her disapproval down three to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four to 38 per cent and up five to 49 per cent. Abbott’s figures are consistent with last week’s Essential Research and inconsistent with Nielsen’s 54-46 to the Coalition last week. Nielsen was also inconsistent with Galaxy’s poll on the weekend, which conformed with the overall trend in showing the situation much as it was on election day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,585 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. [when they then simultaneously whinge about a piece of satire on a semi-obscure (apologies to all PBers, but we are hardly mainstream media) blog site. ]

    I bet Crikey can’t believe the amount of “free” publicity the National Daily Rag is sending its way.

    And it’s so easy to keep it coming, what with the thin skins of the protagonists employed there to fight off those nasty bloggers.

    Just keep prodding & the publicity will run for days.

    Think back to Grog’s episode. It still gets a run occasionally.

    So, for Crikey’s sake, keep the vitriol flowing and work for a stronger PB & Crikey! 😉

  2. As usual Greg articulates what I am thinking far better than I ever could:

    [There will be those who will say the ALP didn’t go to the last election promising this. And yes, you’re right, but the thing is I, and many of those on the left side of the ledger, wanted them to go to the last election promising this, so to be honest, I don’t care.

    The biggest fight of this political generation starts today. Both Abbott and Gillard love to fight, the problem for Abbott is that for the last 6 months Gillard seemed to have nothing to fight for. She now does. She looked confident at the press conference, and looked like she welcomed the fight in parliament.

    On the day she became PM she said to Abbott, “Game on”.

    It sure is now.

    ]

  3. [ I am sure that Windsor has the presence of mind to see a doctor if feeling unwell?

    Maybe, but what about a food-taster? ]

    That’s his problem! he employed Shrek as his food taster, but the big fellow not only tastes it, he eats the blanky lot.

    Windsor is starving to death! 😉

  4. Gus

    [Why are people like Corby still in Indonesia?

    I blame John Howard]

    Surely there are votes in getting her home. I think she did it but the sentence served in those crappy jails is way over the top.

  5. Blast from the past
    [ PM promises carbon trading action
    Prime Minister John Howard has vowed to take important steps to establish a carbon emissions trading scheme.

    He says the Federal Government will respond quickly to a major new report due on Thursday that spells out the options for setting up a carbon trading scheme.

    Mr Howard says setting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is the only meaningful way to tackle climate change.

    He told a Business Council dinner last night Australia must consider going ahead without a global system.

    “In an ideal world, Australia would not be implementing an emissions trading system without there being a global scheme being introduced at the same time,” he said.

    “But dealing with reality as distinct from the ideal, it’s fair to say that we’re not going to see a global scheme anytime soon…

    “I know it’s appeared on occasions over the last six months that the Government has not been responding as rapidly as some people would’ve liked.

    “I acknowledge that but our response – it will be a response that will be seen as a mature, balanced long-term response.” ]

  6. arren Laver
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    3476
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
    Assange gets a trip to Sweden.

    “About time he faced the Swedish legal system, one of the finest in the world.
    If he’s innocent, then he has nothing to fear.”

    not according to th wikiluvers , its 3rd world , worse Sweden may extradite him t USA
    so they complaind

    I assume they thought UK has no such extradton treatys with US

  7. [3508

    Diogenes

    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Gus

    Why are people like Corby still in Indonesia?

    I blame John Howard

    Surely there are votes in getting her home. I think she did it but the sentence served in those crappy jails is way over the top.
    ]

    You mean from Bogan Hairdressers from Qld ?

  8. [Ron

    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    arren Laver
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    3476
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
    Assange gets a trip to Sweden.

    “About time he faced the Swedish legal system, one of the finest in the world.
    If he’s innocent, then he has nothing to fear.”

    not according to th wikiluvers , its 3rd world , worse Sweden may extradite him t USA
    so they complaind

    I assume they thought UK has no such extradton treatys with US
    ]

    and why hasn’t Gus organised the spare bedroom at his Bro’s place ??

    Solidarity and all that.

  9. Frank

    [You mean from Bogan Hairdressers from Qld ?]

    She wouldn’t be getting out earlier, just serving her time closer to her family. And the same applies to all the other Aussies in prison around the world. I’m certainly not saying she should get special treatment.

  10. Mr Squiggle,

    [Scorpio – please note how I give your comment priority

    Its my fingers that cannot spell, not me]

    Hey, thanks for the priority. Didn’t know that pencils had fingers though! 😉

  11. What exactly does Abbott mean by talking up a “People’s Revolt”?
    Is the idiot advocating that Liberals & Radio Liberal listeners go out on to the streets and wave placards around? 😀

  12. [I think Assange is more worried about a prisoner exchange program with the US. ]

    Or being exchanged for Corby. Those Indonesian jails are hell, I understand. 😉

  13. Diogenes,

    Every airport in Indonesia, Malaysia etc has posters and signs eveywhere stating the penalities and risks from drug smuggling.

    Corby had been to the country several times and the risks were well known.

    Sadly she was found with drugs in her possession. I do not make any moral judgement about her but she was found guilty.

    Do the crime, do the time. And do the time in the country in which the crime was committed.

    My personal opinion only.

  14. What I enjoyed from Abbott’s rant today – the Unhinged one trying to bait Rudd, and Kevin is just calmly sitting there reading his parliamentary papers.
    But predictably the hack ABC journalists pronounced it a win for Abbott. 🙂

  15. [Is the idiot advocating that Liberals & Radio Liberal listeners go out on to the streets and wave placards around? 😀 ]
    Perhaps he is, in his own hyper crazy way.

  16. [Is the idiot advocating that Liberals & Radio Liberal listeners go out on to the streets and wave placards around?]

    I don’t know if you noticed, but they made up for it by waving dozens of them around in the Parliament today.

    What a hopeless rabble!

  17. Now whether or not you agree with an ETS or price on Carbon. It still looks bad having Julia Gillard say on record that her government would NOT introduce one before the election and then just after say they WILL. It has also given Abbott something to talk about and oppose which he loves so it was a bad bad move by Gillard.

  18. [Phoney is certainly the master of the most inappropriate comment at the most inappropriate time.]

    Abbott and his talkback radio associates are basically baiting their supporters to physically attack or intimidate members of the ALP!
    The tone of the recent rhetoric from Liberals is disturbingly reminiscent of a dictatorship.

  19. [Anyone know if MEAA … Media Arts Entertainment Alliance, is affiliated to the Labor party? Just putting some bullets in the breach.]

    Nup — we just pay lots for no benefits as far as I can tell.

  20. [Is the idiot advocating that Liberals & Radio Liberal listeners go out on to the streets and wave placards around?]

    More likely to be a Stop, Stare and Nod campaign going on recent tactics from the Liberal Party.

  21. [Is “hypo cracy” a new way to describe the Rabbott?

    When he’s hypo, he tends to go crazy?]

    Dio — have you considered offering the little furry guy te benefit of your professional management?

  22. Tony Windsor i thought was uncomfort before a TV hug in because thats not his scene and he didn’t want to get blackened with a brord CC framwork that lacked what was th actual carbon price nor compo $’s to consumers/industry (when in th interim mths to come there is going to be a lot of shocker jock mans scares what those compo $’s will be that stains him unfair, before he personelly decides on those details

  23. Glen: You’ve got to be cringing with embarrassment at the antics of your party leader.
    If the standard of journalism in this country wasn’t so atrocious, Phoney would be politically finished by now.

  24. Darren Laver @ 3244

    [A great one from The Big Ship some time ago, but as relevant as ever!]

    Thanks for the memories, Darren – that one must be from a few months ago, but it reminds me that I need to go back to Monsieur Roget’s estimable tome and find a few new adjectives and adverbs!

  25. [It still looks bad having Julia Gillard say on record that her government would NOT introduce one before the election and then just after say they WILL.]
    Glen, I thought better of you. How did Howard’s GST pre-election promise end up after it had to be negotiated through the Senate with the Democrats? Was that a bad look? Was the end result a broken promise?

  26. No it doesn’t it shows she is a liar. Capital L I A R period.
    I have a feeling the polls will turn in Tone’s very soon…

    At least if you’re going to lie dont say you wont do it ever!

  27. Glen,

    So what, she said it. I don’t care. This is the right thing to do. Bring it on. Embrace it and we will no longer be at the mercy of great big fat polluters.

    While the fibs are busy bleating and playing dibber, dobber Julia will be positioning this country to exactly where it needs to be in embracing a greener, cleaner future.

    If Phoney’s cronies numbers are to be believed (have these numbers been crunched by Hogwarts Dodgy Accounting R Us of $11 billion black hole fame?) it is going to cost a grand total of 82 cents a day!

    Who cares, bring it on!

  28. The acid is now on Turnball – does he still have the courage of his convictions, or will he wilt under pressure from Abbott’s bully boys?

  29. Glen go back and read the earlier comments on this, plenty of sensible comments, then come back with that same contribution of yours, if you still feel it is applicable.

  30. True it’s time but to be fair Unca Howie did go to the 1998 election with the GST as his policy. Gillard lied that she wasnt going to bring in an ETS at the election and then brought it on after she ‘won’! That is worse IMHO!

  31. [Mr Abbott vowed to fight the scheme “every second of every minute of every day of every week of every month”.]

    That’s something to look forward to.

    So no sleepies for Abbott for months. No wonder he is so erratic.

  32. [No it doesn’t it shows she is a liar. Capital L I A R period.
    I have a feeling the polls will turn in Tone’s very soon…

    At least if you’re going to lie dont say you wont do it ever!]

    But wouldn’t you call Tone’s levy proposal to pay for his parental leave scheme a broken promise?
    After all, Abbott did assure us there’d be no new taxes from him as PM. 😉
    Glen: I appreciate your loyalty to the Liberals, but sorry, Abbott is a fruitcake.

  33. Howie lied/broke promises frequently and was still re-elected. He just soldiered on and did it and people thought that was fair enough.

    Gillard just needs to do the same thing. No side-steps. No apologies. No excuses.

    People will respect her for doing it if she accomplishes it.

  34. Blimey, these Libs are arrogant beggars. This bloke thought he was already NSW Premier the other day and now he thinks he is the PM! 😉

    [THE NSW Coalition is on a collision course with the Gillard government after outlining plans to potentially block two of its key reforms if elected in March.

    With the state due to go to the ballot box in just over four weeks, Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell, widely tipped to become NSW’s next premier, says he will not support a carbon tax.

    Ms Gillard announced today that a price on carbon emissions will begin on July 1, 2012. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-liberals-to-oppose-carbon-tax-if-elected/story-e6frgczx-1226011392654

  35. Gusface they are all liars but Gillard got caught out today that footage of her promising NO ETS before the election was cringeworthy lol!

    Tone’s was a one off levy. Gillard’s is a tax.

    I cannot agree with having an ETS unless we embrace Nuclear Energy. Until that happens I say to those wanting an ETS you’re dreamin.

  36. [Glen

    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    True it’s time but to be fair Unca Howie did go to the 1998 election with the GST as his policy. Gillard lied that she wasnt going to bring in an ETS at the election and then brought it on after she ‘won’! That is worse IMHO!
    ]

    Glen was noticebly silent when the Shadow Minister for One Nation was sputing hate and bile over those funerals – yet is here when his beloved Liberal Party being snookered re a Carbo Tax.

    What was that saying Glen hates again ???

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