Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has it at 50-50, compared with 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour in the year’s first Newspoll a fortnight ago. Julia Gillard has opened a 53-31 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, up from 48-35 last time and basically back where it was at the end of last year. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes comes good on the primary vote figures: Labor up four points to 36 per cent (and didn’t they need that), the Coalition down three to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 13 per cent. Personal ratings are even better for the government: Julia Gillard’s approval is up five points to 50 per cent and her disapproval down three to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four to 38 per cent and up five to 49 per cent. Abbott’s figures are consistent with last week’s Essential Research and inconsistent with Nielsen’s 54-46 to the Coalition last week. Nielsen was also inconsistent with Galaxy’s poll on the weekend, which conformed with the overall trend in showing the situation much as it was on election day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,585 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  2. Glen

    was Julia asked in election campaign would she put a price on carbon ?
    Her answer was YES , subject to CC asembly consenus for th CPTS model

    now is going to follow diogenous down slippery slopes of games not understand btween a Carbon Tax option till 2020 and a CPTS with 1 yr intro carbon tax
    Julia was two clever in playing th politcal word games , she learnt from howie

  5. Glen,

    I really would be surprised if the punters out there who really care will think twice about what the PM said last August. They are pretty pessimestic about all politicans.

    Julia has stated what she will do now and it will get done. Game on as from today. It will get through the HOR and therefore will get through the Senate.

    No ifs and buts it will be done. Why ? Because the committement was made today. The Greens and the government cannot go back. The indies will go with them. It will be a joint decision by a multi party committee. And guess what ? The members of that committeee are the very same people who control the HOR and the Senate after 1 July.

  6. [True it’s time but to be fair Unca Howie did go to the 1998 election with the GST as his policy. Gillard lied that she wasnt going to bring in an ETS at the election and then brought it on after she ‘won’! That is worse IMHO!]
    Howard didn’t mention Workchoices before introducing it. Surely that’s worse Glen.

  8. Glen you are Liberal through and through, you just dont have the ticker to admit it here. Uncle Howie ffs. No doubt you have a good laugh with your lib mates after being on here.
    Insipid stuff lad.

  9. Frank you’ll note I made fun of Bernardi/Morrison and Mirabella a few posts back they are fools IMHO and I hope none become leaders of the Party.

  10. [Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:10 pm | Permalink]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jncV6gRtIvw&feature=player_embedded

    Glen:

    Dio posted this vid and I posted a couple of quotes from Gillard saying, wtte:

    I rule out a carbon tax.

    Now she is introducing a carbon tax.

    Some here find it difficult to see any issue here! Fascinating, isn’t it? I guess when you live in the ‘ALP is perfect and Libs are pure evil’ you have no choice but to make black white.

    🙂

  11. Julia made the statement before the minority government. At her presser she responded really well to this question. I would love to see the transcript. WTTE This is a decision of the parliament that the Oz people voted for (ie the Greens and the Indies and Labor) and we have to govern for now. She is saying – the world has changed and she is right – the floods, the cyclones, the earthquakes – we have had our own mini 9/11. Things have changed. This line of attack from Libs is 1. hypocritical (given Work choices) and 2. irrelevant.

  12. [Gillard lied that she wasnt going to bring in an ETS at the election and then brought it on after she ‘won’! That is worse IMHO!]
    Oh rubbish Glen. Don’t turn into Abbott lite. Gillard made election promises on the unspoken assumption that she would win majority government. Abbott did the same. That’s what leaders do in elections. What’s the alternative?

    I promise A if we win majority HOR and Senate.
    I promise A1 if we win majority HOR but Greens with balance of power in Senate.
    I promise A2 if we win majority HOR but indies with balance of power in Senate.
    I promise A3 if we win majority HOR but indies and Greens with balance of power in Senate.
    I promise A4 if we win HOR but opposition hold majority of Senate.

    To be pedantic, she didn’t say she wouldn’t bring in an ETS, she said she wouldn’t bring in a carbon tax. At the end of the day, what is the difference from a voter perspective?

  14. Glen what do you make of Liberal Senators from Qld and Victoria voting against the Flood levy? Obviously only interested in the party and not the constituents who voted the do nothing clowns into the senate.

  15. [True it’s time but to be fair Unca Howie did go to the 1998 election with the GST as his policy. ]

    ‘Unca Howie’ went to the 2004 election with no mention of radical IR reforms. None.

  16. To be fair, there have been some here who admit that it was a stupid election promise that she should never have made, an example of the ‘unreal Julia’ perhaps? Now at least she has thrown down the gauntlet. Lets see who flinches first!

    The last time this happened it was Tony Abbott frightening the daylights out of the ALP quartet and soon after they went to water. Now its Gillard – lets see whether she can make the Coalition blink!

  17. Glen , diogenous

    eat your hart out

    ‘ the Prime Minister specifically rejected a carbon tax on Wednesday night (during th ELECTION Campaign ) , telling ABC Television “the pricing of carbon I think is best done through a market-based mechanism — that is the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme”.

    see how naeve people is in reading what actualy julia said

  18. [Glen

    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Frank you’ll note I made fun of Bernardi/Morrison and Mirabella a few posts back they are fools IMHO and I hope none become leaders of the Party.
    ]

    But on the actual day you were nowhere to be found.

    and don’t pull the old “I resigned” rubbish either – You are spot welded to the Liberal Party and you will forever be a loyal foot soldier.

  20. Gary but he didnt think he’d win an absolute majority did he?
    Doyley all the punters will care about is that their cost of living will rise because Jools is in bed with Saint Bob and Tony Abbott will say he will reduce their cost of living. It doesnt take a genius to figure out who’ll win that argument and it will be iPhoney not Jools. Once again Jools is stupid enough to let that idiot Abbott have an easy line of attack. She never learns!!!

    Foolish thing from Gillard but she hasnt anything else to hang her hat on of late.

  21. Mod Lib,

    On the isssue of Carbon tax, as a labor voter I will sleep very easily in the knowledge that the PM has done the right thing today and irrespective of what she said last August.

    When you are right you are right. Am I a hypocrite ? Who cares.

  23. [Now its Gillard – lets see whether she can make the Coalition blink!]

    She will bring tears to Liberal eyes. They are all cocky tonight but it will soon become just another lost Liberal opportunity.

  24. [Some here find it difficult to see any issue here! Fascinating, isn’t it? I guess when you live in the ‘ALP is perfect and Libs are pure evil’ you have no choice but to make black white.]
    I see the issue but I also see the reason behind the change. Some here don’t want to admit that this parliament is the reason for the change.

  25. What ever the polls say, people are worries about the weather, and by logical extension, the climate. Libs risk missing the boat on this entirely if they think that people are concerned about a politician changing ground in order to address real and pressing issues.

  29. jenauthor,

    [ Is “hypo cracy” a new way to describe the Rabbott?

    When he’s hypo, he tends to go crazy?

    Dio — have you considered offering the little furry guy the benefit of your professional management? ]

    I don’t think Medical Science is far enough advanced yet to be able to help! 😉

  30. [It has also given Abbott something to talk about and oppose which he loves so it was a bad bad move by Gillard.]

    It twasn’t exactly Gillard’s doing — it was the CC c’tee of which she is but one member.

  31. Mod Lib speaking of making black white, what did you think about every Liberal MP going to an election supporting this position?
    [ PM promises carbon trading action
    Prime Minister John Howard has vowed to take important steps to establish a carbon emissions trading scheme.

    He says the Federal Government will respond quickly to a major new report due on Thursday that spells out the options for setting up a carbon trading scheme.

    Mr Howard says setting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is the only meaningful way to tackle climate change. ]

  32. [Doyley
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:17 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    On the isssue of Carbon tax, as a labor voter I will sleep very easily in the knowledge that the PM has done the right thing today and irrespective of what she said last August.

    When you are right you are right. Am I a hypocrite ? Who cares]

    Doyley, I completely respect that point of view. It may seem strange, but that is not what I have been having fun her tonight over! Its the rusted ons who are squirming this way and that to try and make out that she never said there would be no carbon tax when she did (check out the video and interview transcripts).

    She said it
    It was stupid thing to say- fair enough, agreed.

    Now, she is arguing a case strongly and defining her leadership on it. I for one will give her some credit for this and give her a chance to explain what she is going to do and why. Glen thinks she is falling into a trap and I suspect the polls will drop as he says, but she needs to explain for 1 – 2 years, and stick with it through thick and thin.

  33. Fantastic to witness the Greens cave in and join Julia and Combet in the price on carbon presser.

    When asked by a journo to St Bob why he was now prepared to work with Labor on climate change, his response was “well we are a democracy”.

    Great to witness the Greens finally ceasing to play politics on the issue and get real. Let’s hope it continues.

  35. How can Fatty O’Farrell block a carbon tax?
    The man has delusions of grandeur, but I guess that’s what happens when your ego is constantly stroked by 2GB.

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