Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has it at 50-50, compared with 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour in the year’s first Newspoll a fortnight ago. Julia Gillard has opened a 53-31 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, up from 48-35 last time and basically back where it was at the end of last year. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes comes good on the primary vote figures: Labor up four points to 36 per cent (and didn’t they need that), the Coalition down three to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 13 per cent. Personal ratings are even better for the government: Julia Gillard’s approval is up five points to 50 per cent and her disapproval down three to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four to 38 per cent and up five to 49 per cent. Abbott’s figures are consistent with last week’s Essential Research and inconsistent with Nielsen’s 54-46 to the Coalition last week. Nielsen was also inconsistent with Galaxy’s poll on the weekend, which conformed with the overall trend in showing the situation much as it was on election day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,585 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  3. Last on Earth, first in Heaven, maybe:

    David, are you a fan of William Shakespeare? Not only was he a good word-smith, he was also an excellent psychologist.

    To be, or not to be, that is the question:
    Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
    The Slings and Arrows of outrageous fortune;
    Or to take Armes against a Sea of troubles,
    And by opposing end them: To die, to sleep
    No more; and by a sleep to say we end
    The heartache, and the thousand natural shocks
    That flesh is heir to? ’tis a consummation
    Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep
    To sleep, perchance to dream; Aye, there’s the rub,
    For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
    When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
    Must give us pause. There’s the respect
    That makes calamity of so long life:
    For who would bear the Whips and Scorns of time,
    The Oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s Contumely,
    The pangs of disprized love, the Lawes delay,
    The insolence of Office, and the Spurns
    That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
    When he himself might his quietus make
    With a bare bodkin? Who would there fardels bear,
    To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
    But that the dread of something after death,
    The undiscovered Countrey from whose Bourne
    No traveller returns, puzels the will
    And makes us rather beare those ills we have
    Than fly to others that we know not of?
    Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all,
    And thus the native hue of resolution
    Is sicklied o’re with the pale cast of Thought,
    And enterprises of great pith and moment,
    With this regard their currents turne away,
    And lose the name of Action.—Soft you now,
    The fair Ophelia? Nymph, in thy orisons
    Be all my sinnes remembered.

  8. The coalition cavorting with One Nation and the internal squabbles combined with JG coming into her own look to be a winning combination.

  16. [Before the hysterics begin, the 2PP is within the MOE of the last Newspoll.]

    But it’s outside the 54-46 of last week’s Nielsen, which I think we can now safely regard as an outlier.

  21. [William Bowe

    Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Before the hysterics begin, the 2PP is within the MOE of the last Newspoll.

    But it’s outside the 54-46 of last week’s Nielsen, which I think we can now safely regard as an outlier.
    ]

    but not good enough for TP who will be giving us a touch of the Heavy Jellies. 🙂

  22. [Before the hysterics begin, the 2PP is within the MOE of the last Newspoll.]

    Same can be said of Newspolls favouring the coalition Dio. It is the perception of the trend that counts.

    If the next poll is better than or equal to 50/50 … then will you concede there is a trend, or will you say it can be explained by MOE?

  26. My faith is restored in my fellow man after watching Q&A and hearing the jeers for One Nation and Barnaby and the cheers for multiculturalism.

    Now a pleasant surprise in newspoll.

  27. A poll taken in Feb 2011 when an election is due on Aug 2013, is nothing to be taken seriously.

    What wins elections? Actions!

    Actions such as the implementation of the NBN, health reform, and a decent levy affordable by all Australins to compensate those in need for natural disasters.

    Well done Julia! Gillard has no peer of any female politician anywhere in the world. 🙂

  29. What be that sighing in the wind, the sob that speaks of heavy heart and pain at pleasure lost?

    Why, it’s just that twat Shanahan anouncing the latest Newspoll!

  32. Gillard govt starting to firmly stand up for things and not just cheaply pander to populist issues and they polls start turning around? Hmmm…

    On the other hand, the Liberal party is having an ideological scuffle.

    However, don’t celebrate too hard. It’s just one fortnight, plenty of time for the opp to catch the wind again.

    My advice to Gillard, keep doing what you do. Once July comes, work with the Greens to push through some positive reforms. You’ll look good and Abbott will lose all of his wind. (If he is still leader)

  34. [With the comments in this thread, you’d think Labor were actually ahead.]
    Or that Labor were still in government and its prospects on the up?

  35. Centre@2701 on Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland – The Poll Bludger

    I’m not a sceptic jv.
    I’m prepared to accept the consensus opinion of climate scientists.
    But that does not mean that the science cannot be questioned and it must be taken as gospel.

    Sure, but with the consensus so overwhelming, it’s probably more important to concentrate now on getting urgent strong action going that will save the planet, our economy, and our standard of living, I think.

  37. jen

    [If the next poll is better than or equal to 50/50 … then will you concede there is a trend, or will you say it can be explained by MOE?]

    If there are two results of 50-50, the MOE becomes smaller and the difference between 48-52 and 50-50 cannot be ascribed to MOE.

    So I would not say it was within MOE.

  38. [Lib divisions take their toll!]
    Depending on the timing of the poll, I’d like to think Scott Morrison’s remarks caused damage too. Most bigots don’t like admitting they are bigots, so when you go too far in courting them, you turn some people off.

  42. [With the comments in this thread, you’d think Labor were actually ahead.]
    Some were thinking that given the AS, immigration issues that these would favour the Libs and that this poll could have been bad for Labor. The fact that 2 polls show Labor some what improving there position is a relief.

  43. madcyril:

    Abbott has indeed taken a hit. I wonder if its his relentless negativity over Qld finally starting to wash through the polling?

  46. Australia can’t save the planet jv.

    The Labor Party must be seriously careful with a carbon tax. The majority of Australians WILL need to be adequately compensated, otherwise they will lose the following election for sure.

  48. SK

    I would like to think that was the case, but it’s hard to be certain. And it is still 50/50 2PP. But it is nice to see Abbott suffer a hit in the Approval stakes, whether it was a direct result of the A/S issue or Liberal infighting or whatever

  49. [A poll taken in Feb 2011 when an election is due on Aug 2013, is nothing to be taken seriously.

    What wins elections? Actions!

    Actions such as the implementation of the NBN, health reform, and a decent levy affordable by all Australins to compensate those in need for natural disasters.

    Well done Julia! Gillard has no peer of any female politician anywhere in the world.]
    Agreed.

  50. To Speak of Pebbles@32

    My advice to Gillard, keep doing what you do. Once July comes, work with the Greens to push through some positive reforms. You’ll look good and Abbott will lose all of his wind. (If he is still leader)

    Exactly the advice I would be giving. Call the opposition on all the fear-mongering crap. Start preaching about Garnaut’s CC plans when the update is complete, bring the refugees on shore – all of it. It is the only route to victory next election.

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