The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.
UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.
Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.
More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.
UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.
correct me william if i am wrong but over the years neilson was often way off the mark.
Bilbo
a trend is a trend is a trend
🙁
i cannot imagine julia going becasue there goes the indies they would not be that stupid.
and who could do a better job than her NO one that i can think of no one else has the profile for start
[i was very annoyed with whats her name the qld premier its back to normal for her SHORT MEMORY ANNA HAVE WE]
What are you talking about?
[WHY! I can’t understand why people would prefer a testosterone fuelled boofhead over a capable professional as their PM.]
Because he tells them what they want to hear, manipulates their hatred against others and focuses it on his opponents and is able to convince people he is a poor victim when others go after him.
A very good leader of a very bad opposition.
Gusface,
Your emos have turned upside down.
[Mithrandir
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 9:56 pm | Permalink
So, how does one reconcile the difference in approval of the flood levy when comparing Newspoll/Nielsen with Essential?]
My take on this is the “want to please” factor in surveys. If you ask a value laden question, there is a proportion who vote the way they think you want- ask about the most important factors in determining your vote and everyone says health and education, but they vote on economic management.
Some of the poll support in later polls is people saying they agree with the poll (“see I am generous”) but they actually vote for the Libs to stop the levy happening.
A theory anyway…
Pebbs
The use of fear and ignorance to manipulate is something Abbott’s mentor, Pell, would know all about.
vp
the fibs and the polls make me sad
🙁
[Hey guys – many, many times we have been told by the experts – one poll is nothing. What does your gut tell you? Mine says – without equivocation- the die is cast. JG is going to be our PM for a long time to come and TA a fading curiosity ]
i will go with gwenth, only way thing to do. go julia.
who knows may be some silly people feel sorry for tone
[An interesting question would be: do voters change their votes because of published polls? If that were the case there would be a case for making polls illegal.]
Voting patterns are not independent phenomena. In effect, there is evidence that voting occurs in phase shifts.
One possible reason would be the publishing of opinion polls.
Gusface,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHFDa9efCQU
one thing that was pointed out to me this week that howard ALWAYS had bad polls
just for curiosity some one should look at them but do keep in mind that all the young people i know have mobile phones only.
I’m off to get ready for the shock jocks tomorrow – it will be hard to bear!
crikey whitey,
[vp. taa. so much. I am a hardened veteran on Pollbludger.
It is the waste of space I object to.
For example, much as Scorpio and I get on, what was all that crap with Boerwar?
Stuff like that simply usurps pertinent comment. ]
Much apologies for that Crikey. That was in response to a jibe from Dave that I provoked and was in relation to the hole that BW dug yesterday afternoon & evening.
Boewar’s a good guy, he just dug a bit too deep yesterday & had difficulty digging himself out of it! 😉
There was nothing personal in it and no malice meant. The posts this morning were not directed at BW but were old posts of his from July last year onwards. which were related to the issue that Dave fired me up a bit on.
Dave is owed an apology from me also because it can provoke an unfortunate response sometimes when somebody digs a bit too hard.
Sorry Dave. You’re a good guy as is Boerwar!
ps. why worry about something that is two and half years away
bye all
[Some of the poll support in later polls is people saying they agree with the poll (“see I am generous”) but they actually vote for the Libs to stop the levy happening.]
Um, there will be no chance to “vote” for the Libs to stop the levy. Even the dumbest poll respondent knows that.
ML – never fear, your presence or not has no bearing on my engagement: you are not that important in the greater scheme of things.
I fly out early tomorrow for work.
Ask yourself this question though – if we were to match TA against JG in terms of health reform – who would stack up? My children go to an orthodontist (South African born orthodontist) and he loves talking politics with me. Let’s just say that he leans slightly to the right (sarcasm alert). Opinion of Abbott on Health? “The man is scum”.
Spin and weave, spin and weave. I sleep well tonight.
another public holiday here great boat show great horse race, the cricket’
hobart is chokers no accom any where australian boat show great
We HOPE it’s two and a half years away, my say.
[One possible reason would be the publishing of opinion polls.]
If you can show cause and effect there’ll be some big court cases coming on.
Mod Lib
[My take on this is the “want to please” factor in surveys. If you ask a value laden question, there is a proportion who vote the way they think you want- ask about the most important factors in determining your vote and everyone says health and education, but they vote on economic management.
Some of the poll support in later polls is people saying they agree with the poll (“see I am generous”) but they actually vote for the Libs to stop the levy happening.]
That would be more apparent in a F2F poll.
Mytwobobsworth,
[I’m off to get ready for the shock jocks tomorrow – it will be hard to bear! ]
It might need fortification!
Just how much can a Koala bear? 😉
vp
[One possible reason would be the publishing of opinion polls.
If you can show cause and effect there’ll be some big court cases coming on.]
Why?
[Agree TSOP.
When Abbott became Opp Leader I had a good chuckle. Then I realised – “shit… this feels a lot like when Howard took the Lib leadership in 95…”
There is a hell of a long way to go, and we can’t predict what is going to happen, but don’t think “Nah… Australia won’t vote THAT bloke on…”
Because it’s happened before.]
Agreed. On a different political website where I used to regularly post, the day he became OL, I warned everyone not to just laugh him off as some idiotic extremist. I reminded people he would have the exact same appeal Howard had in 1996.
By focusing on bread and butter issues and convincing middle Australia that what they believe in their gut was true. Not what silly commitees and wonks come up with. By presenting himself as a no nonsense man of action, he would appeal to all the “battlers” who feel the need to blame someone for their problems and have a tendency to shout at the TV.
In case no one has noticed: Julia Gillard (Labor, Lalor) is Prime Minister.
[Some of the poll support in later polls is people saying they agree with the poll (“see I am generous”) but they actually vote for the Libs to stop the levy happening.]
Perhaps you’re right. Might it be then that the Abbott vote is inflated since 80-90% of the media tell punters “Labor bad, Abbott good”? Abbottism is the new political correct of his darling media
[In case no one has noticed: Julia Gillard (Labor, Lalor) is Prime Minister.]
But not born to rule.
[In case no one has noticed: Julia Gillard (Labor, Lalor) is Prime Minister.]
…And? Did someone doubt it?
The interesting anomaly is the 2PP advantage to the coalition but majority support for the levy. Cognitive dissonance anyone?
[Cognitive dissonance anyone?]
Political ignorance anyone?
[We HOPE it’s two and a half years away, my say.]
It probably will be. The independents forced Gillard to agree not to hold an election before the latter half of 2013. That agreement goes both ways. Plus Abbott ain’t going anywhere and Abbott’s done nothing to convince them to do him any favours.
Re Nielsen – There is also the issues of the bushfires affecting Kelmscott and Roleystone – I wonder if with amounrt of huses lost that maybe there wasn’t any polling done ?
[The interesting anomaly is the 2PP advantage to the coalition but majority support for the levy. Cognitive dissonance anyone?]
It’s only one factor out of hundreds. It’s not necessarily an anomaly.
[In case no one has noticed: Julia Gillard (Labor, Lalor) is Prime Minister.
]
and we should thank Dawkins everyday for it!
She is heaven sent.
[The interesting anomaly is the 2PP advantage to the coalition but majority support for the levy. Cognitive dissonance anyone?]
That doesn’t matter. It is plausible that some can be for the levy (such as moderate Libs) but prefer the Coalition to be in govt.
[It’s Time
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
The interesting anomaly is the 2PP advantage to the coalition but majority support for the levy. Cognitive dissonance anyone?]
See my 107. Thats what I meant the TPP vote suggests there may not be majority support for the levy (what else has happened that could bolster Coalition recently???)
Dio: yes, F2F magnifies this effect but it is well known in all surveys. Some surveys ask similar questions in multiple different formats / wordings to get a better idea about real views.
Diogenes,
Because there might be a constitutional objection to influencing people’s votes through false and misleading advertising.
I am not saying that is what it is but I’m sure that there are few lawyers who would like to engage. It might need them to show that the polls are ahem biased but that would not be a barrier.
The bread and butter issue to be wary of is energy costs. Whilst there have been substantial increases in costs to consumers, there are more to come, even without an impact from a carbon reduction scheme. If voters feel peeved about the rising costs, the first opportunity they will have to vent their collective spleen will be at the next Federal election. So Labor may feel the backlash from voters who are peeved at their State governments but haven’t had the opportunity to do so before the next federal election.
[correct me william if i am wrong but over the years neilson was often way off the mark.]
Yes, there recent record has been a bit wobbly.
vp
[Because there might be a constitutional objection to influencing people’s votes through false and misleading advertising.]
A poll which reflects voting trends is not false or misleading.
[Because he tells them what they want to hear, manipulates their hatred against others and focuses it on his opponents and is able to convince people he is a poor victim when others go after him.]
Precisely why I want him gone. Such a creature is too close to govt for my liking.
Can you imagine it! This poll will become the story of the day not the health agreement!
Sometimes it feels like you are pushing it up hill
I was really thrilled with the agreement tonight however we have so much baggage over the past eight months to get over I wonder where it will all end.
We have a gullible electorate which falls for three word slogans for God’s sake and an opposition leader who is an ego maniacal head nodder stuttering through sentences and yet they can win polls.
God help us where you go from here who knows. Get Sarah Palin over here I say! She would certainly suit the electoral climate!
[Might it be then that the Abbott vote is inflated since 80-90% of the media tell punters “Labor bad, Abbott good”? Abbottism is the new political correct of his darling media]
given the last election I don’t think his vote is inflated (if by that you mean there will be a big shift to ALP on voting day). I wish the polling had been bad for us (libs this year), we dump Tony and then I suspect the polling would be much better for us and we could end up with a moderate liberal government- for the first time in ages!
If things stay on current trends my wishes for an Abbott dump mid year aint likely
[By presenting himself as a no nonsense man of action, he would appeal to all the “battlers” who feel the need to blame someone for their problems and have a tendency to shout at the TV.]
Oh dear. *I* have a tendency to shout at the TV. My husband is waiting for the day when I pop my poofle valve.
Stop rationalising this poll. It’s a bad poll for Labor. No, not a bad one. A terrible one. Its message is clear: Get back on track or you’re gone! No strategic marginal campaign, safe and cautious campaign or anti-Abbott fear campaign is going to dig you out. Be (and clearly demonstrate you are) a good government or be the opposition.
However, having said that, lately their have been some qualitative factors that suggest it’s possible things might swing a little back to the Labor camp and I am willing to give them a month or two to sink in properly but don’t hold your breath.
Scorps
My 143 was in response to you! I must be tired!
Scorpio, my dear.
“Swap screen names with me for a while and you will probably get more attention on the board than you would really wish for! 😉
Sometimes it is good to fly under the radar a bit here”.
I don’t want attention. Acknowledgment of hard thought out comment will do.
As I said, it is not about me.
Furthermore, I only employed you as an example, because I know you can take it.
It especially annoys me in that Glen, who was so gracious and perceptive about the Abbott meltdown did not get a moments recognition on this site.
Did anyone but me have something nice to say about Glen’s observervations and heartfelt sorrow?
He will probably never read my compliment to him.
Unless I see him on line and post my stuff, for the third time.
Though why would I bother.
Because what I have said is lost in the tsunami of other. Flotsam.
Fiz 145. Do you do it while watching the news/ACA/TT, exclaiming things like “That’s bullshit!” and “Lock ’em all up!”? 😉
TSOP
Labor has bad brand problems at the moment. They are losing the polls Federally, SA, WA, Vic, NSW and Qld.