Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.

The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.

UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,666 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. [And having a knee replacement is “not of great health benefit” because 20%of patients didn’t get any improvement at one year, ie 80% were improved.]
    Wouldn’t that be high on the list of successful medical procedures and medications?

  3. [Labor already as a Mining Profits tax with moneys to go to Supa , tax cuts and infrastructure Greens do not agree with it]

    I thought the Greens supported a mining tax, but wanted the Rudd version rather than the Gillard one?

  4. It’s Time

    Gall bladders and hernias are banned as well.

    There are lots of unhappy parents whose kids have had tonsils and grommets banned. Cameron has also not made many friends by referring to care in the NHS as “second-rate”.

  5. [Shortly people will start wondering and the question will be asked, how are we going to pay for this. The Coalition and the msm have all but asked it already. The answer, the one that the mining lobby already are railing against is obvious, at least to me, the 40% RSPT that was lobbied away]

    not evn that is neede

    just a Profits Tax impost

    applicable to 50 mil Turnover plus

    sliding scale

    with turnover of 1 billion attract a 5% premium

    Big Business must should and shall pay its share

  6. [confessionsPosted Monday, January 17, 2011 at 10:00 pm | PermalinkLabor already as a Mining Profits tax with moneys to go to Supa , tax cuts and infrastructure Greens do not agree with it
    I thought the Greens supported a mining tax, but wanted the Rudd version rather than the Gillard one?
    ]

    Yep, and deliver politicial suicide in WA and Qld as a resulit.

  7. Diog
    What you told us about changes to the UK’s NHS is frightening! Looks like something the worst of the Republicans would do. In fact, there already is rationing of surgical procedures occurring in Arizona.

  8. Dio:

    I don’t understand. Are the Tories prioritising surgical intervention according to budgetary requirements rather than medical need? I accept that there’s always an element of that in public health, but how do tonsils simply not get covered under NHS? What do people do?

  9. Labor , again, will be wedged by Liberals and greens when Q’ld recovery part finishes and reconstrcut starts & monies needed will be an issue

    Abbott is going to say cancel th NBN
    Brown is going to say cancel th Supa , tax cuts & infastructures x Mining tax

    and that bad enuf , govt will hav less xports money and any incr in budget may pressure rates , but all that is a future issue yet Abbott & Brown has flaged it alrady at wrong time , as for now flooded peoples in Qld is priorites for hevens sake

  10. Ron,
    [‘Resource Minister Martin Ferguson criticised Senator Brown for making political capital out of a national tragedy. “It’s a time for pulling together, not pointing the finger,” he said.]
    Labor can’t say anything else. But I am glad BB has, albeit clumsily, given word to the idea. It seems MF didn’t rule it out. He is just not going to talk about it yet.

  14. [Yep, and deliver politicial suicide in WA and Qld as a resulit.]

    I agree but mining is part of big business

    slug em all

    the banks would deliver up a 300 mill each contribution alone

  20. so far we are up to 6.7 billion

    exempt agriculture transport

    slug superfunds a 2% one off

    3 billion

    so far total is 10 billion extra in 1 fiscal yr

    and no mid level sector has been touched

  21. Mar’n would say that.

    The fact is that Australia is facing an awful and fundamental CO2 policy dilemma. It is a massive lose/lose dilemma. Neither of the majors are even mentioning it. Brown is approaching it in a peripheral fashion, clumsily.

    There are two basic policy options:

    Option one: Australia keeps mining coal which other people keep turning into atmospheric CO2. Result = AGW and some terrible consequences for Australia (and the rest of the world).

    Option two: The rest of the world stops using Australian coal in order to reduce CO2 emissions and AGW is held to reasonable levels. Side effect = Australian export earnings collapse.

    You can sort of see why Mar’n clings desperately to the myth of ‘clean coal’ and also why he rushes to the verbal assault on Brown.

    Both approaches enable Mar’n to avoid Australia’s terrible CO2 policy dilemma.

  23. Confessions,
    [BK is right. In many ways this health stuff is Tea Partyism/present day Republicanism!]
    Be they USA Republicans, UK Conservatives, or the Aussie Coalition, destroying ‘socialised medicine’ is in the Right Wing’s DNA. They can no more stop themselves from destroying universal health plans than my terriers can stop themselves from dispatching mice.

  24. Dio

    why

    these company’s use the infrastructure to help generate and maintain there business

    time to stump up for our historical lowest level taxed sector

    Company Tax

    🙁

  25. Ron,
    Bob will not say cancel the mining tax, I recall he thinks it’s a splendid idea and if I recall correctly the green want more than what was negotiated.

    Where did you get that information from?

  26. [Furthermore, I should add that the way in which News Ltd and the Liberals have jumped on Brown’s comments is completely hypocritical. Where was the hand-wringing for the flood victims when Tone was using the floods to score cheap political points?]

    It’ll be interesting to see how the 2011 budget gets framed. To get on track to be into surplus in 2013, and to pay the Feds share of the flood reconstruction in Qld, NSW, Vic, apparently Tassie and not to forget Carnarvon will be a hell of a job and FAR more difficult than anything the Fibs ever faced.

    What Browns on about seems to me to be the revenue side of the equation which the Libs ALWAYS want to use as a political weapon. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, but our Julia is no dummy, and neither are Swan, Combet, et al.

  28. Dio,
    [Or we could borrow more money.]
    Why? There’s plenty of money. We just have to have the guts to collect it before it leavers our shores.

  30. Scientists have said that Australia will suffer more from global warming…. I suppose to keep the coal industry profits up we will just have to learn to live with it.

  33. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, January 17, 2011 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Ron,

    ‘Resource Minister Martin Ferguson criticised Senator Brown for making political capital out of a national tragedy. “It’s a time for pulling together, not pointing the finger,” he said.

    1/ “Labor can’t say anything else. But I am glad BB has, albeit clumsily, given word to the idea. ”

    THEN ABBOT has every rite to polisise it re NBN as well on that resons puffy
    I’m saying they both is crass , using flood tragedy for cynicol motives

    2/ “It seems MF didn’t rule it out. He is just not going to talk about it yet.”
    Martin Feguson showed respect fro flood victums , Abbott & Brown did not

  37. Puff

    [Why? There’s plenty of money. We just have to have the guts to collect it before it leavers our shores.]

    Like the Mining Tax? We saw how well that worked.

    BTW I got a book called “The Ball is Round” about soccer, sociology and geopolitics. It’s bloody good.

  41. I thought the Future Fund was to pay for unfunded Cwlth public service superannuation?

    Although I recall during the last of the Howard years a report saying that is already covered and then some. And I thought the Rudd govt established an infrastructure fund?

  42. Firstname Lastname

    i said
    “Abbott is going to say cancel th NBN
    Brown is going to say cancel th Supa , tax cuts & infastructures x Mining tax ”

    ie Abbott & Brown both want money used for Q’ld floods in a way diff to what Govt presently intends one by cutting out an expense & th othr using th mining tax reveues a diff way

  48. Ron,
    [THEN ABBOT has every rite to polisise it re NBN as well on that resons puffy
    I’m saying they both is crass , using flood tragedy for cynicol motives]
    Abbott will do it anyway. And I do agree that BB should have left out the ‘culprits’ description. And that Labor can’t raise the idea yet. But someone has to say the bleeding obvious. But probably not for another couple of weeks.

    Someone in the Labor Government must be sitting down right now and trying to work out where the money is going to come from. That is not politicising, it is common sense.

  49. In the political reality that is going to be 2011 I think the Governments dance book is full enough without going back on a deal with the mining industry.

    The MRRT is the end result of negotiation and, as such, is not perfect. The government wanted more, the miners wanted nothing but what we have is acceptable to both parties.

    In rhe real world this is what happens. It is not about lacking courage it is about reality and is called pragmatism.

  50. How much of the responsibility for rebuilding Qld should fall to the Feds vs Qld? Is it arbitrary or is it already defined (like the feds do major roads and bridges and the state does the city roads etc)?

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