The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred after three weeks at 51-49. This sets a new record for their best ever performance from Essential Research, which began polling in early 2008. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 46 per cent, with Labor and the Greens both down one to 37 per cent and 10 per cent. I guess we have to wait another weak for questions on Wikileaks: this week’s supplementary questions relate to whether it’s been a good or bad year for various industries, the environment, political parties, politicians and the respondents personally. Respondents were also asked which news sources they use, which more than any such question I’ve ever seen suggests the long hegemony of television news is under serious threat from “internet news sites”. Six per cent said they used blogs to get news on an average weekday, with intriguing party breakdowns: 10 per cent among Greens supporters, 7 per cent among Coalition supporters and 4 per cent among Labor supporters. Public broadcasters maintain solid lead as the news sources considered most trustworthy.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan phone polled another 528 respondents between Friday and Sunday to add to the 550 polled on Wednesday and Thursday for Friday’s 55-45 result. The additions to the sample have only slightly reduced the Coalition two-party lead, to 54.5-45.5. Together with a weekly Essential Research sample that was bad enough for Labor to drag the rolling fortnighly total from 51-49 to 52-48, there is now meaningful evidence to suggest the Coalition two-party vote is at least as high as 53 per cent. Morgan also has state breakdowns of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, though it probably wouldn’t do to read too much into them.
UPDATE 2 (14/12): Westpoll has published a survey of 400 respondents showing the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46 in WA, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election, from primary votes of 48 per cent Coalition, 33 per cent Labor and 13 per cent Greens. The poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday last week, and as usual the sample was 400 and the margin of error about 5 per cent. The poll also finds 61 per cent of respondents supporting gay marriage against 33 per cent opposed. Figures published from the survey yesterday had 35 per cent saying they would be less likely to vote for the state Liberals if Troy Buswell was returned to cabinet, against “almost one in six” more likely and 45 per cent no impact.
UPDATE 3 (14/12): Roy Morgan has now published full figures from the phone poll alluded to in the first update, remembering that half of this is the 55-45 result which was published on Friday. Taken together, the poll has Labor on 31 per cent, the Coalition on 46 per cent and the Greens on 13.5 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5. Results are provided for that half of the survey conducted since the results published on Friday, which are only slightly better for Labor than the Friday figures. Rather pointlessly for a national survey with 1078 respondents, they have also provided us with state breakdowns: here are the Labor two-party figures for each state followed by the election results in brackets, then a rough margin-of-error after the comma. The Victorian figure suggests to me that static from the state election might have been a factor there.
New South Wales: 45.5% (48.8%), 5.25%
Victoria: 47.5% (55.3%), 6%
Queensland: 36.5% (44.9%), 6.75%
Western Australia: 50% (43.6%), 9.5%
South Australia: 52% (53.2%), 10.5%
GG
[The best way to make arseholes like Bolt disappear is to not read their crap and don’t talk about them.
Shock jocks are paid to have controversial opinions and thrive on the notoriety and publicity.]
It’s interesting you should say that. The McCarthy book talks about the dilemma facing the Dems (and to a lesser extent the Repugs) about what to do with a rampant nutter like McCarthy who gets lots of publicity.
They tried ignoring him, removing him from committees and pointing out he was wrong. None of the methods worked.
[“Losing” China was more of a big deal in the US than I realised. ]
Diog, obviously you have not paid attention. How many times have i told you that the Looney Rights in the US still have not got over with “Who Lost China?
And you have to read a book to find that?
Who lost Diog???
[This is despite the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, labelling the actions of the group “illegal” two weeks ago.
]
She didn’t specify Australian Law at the time.
Diog
What did work?
I am amazed that people still contend that Rudd/Gillard policy change didn’t effect the boats from coming.
Push factors have been no better than when Howard got it to 3 boats a year.
People won’t risk it if there is no benefit
As for the East timor solution ! it is laughable
[ biasdetector
Posted Friday, December 17, 2010 at 1:43 pm | Permalink
I am amazed that people still contend that Rudd/Gillard policy change didn’t effect the boats from coming.
Push factors have been no better than when Howard got it to 3 boats a year.
People won’t risk it if there is no benefit
As for the East timor solution ! it is laughable
]
and here is Gee Willickars younger and more stupider brother.
It does strike me as odd that we give half of all our aid to a country that has surpasssed us in total GDP and is growing at 55BN per year.
[Push factors have been no better than when Howard got it to 3 boats a year.]
So the Iranians and Pakistani forecefully repatriating hundreds of thousands of Afghanis in 2007/8 after they had resettled there in the early 80s is not a push factor.
bg
[What did work?]
I haven’t got to the end yet! I’m only 1/3 of the way through and he’s accusing all these people in State of being Commies with minimal evidence.
I think he over-reached in attacking the Army from memory but I’ll let you know when I find out.
Finns
You were right. I didn’t doubt you but I didn’t realise just how badly they took “losing China”. I never really thought of them having China to lose, hence my puzzlement.
[She didn’t specify Australian Law at the time.]
Maybe not, but when the Australian prime minister refers to an “illegal act” it is fair to assume that she is referring to Australian law unless she specifies otherwise. She is hardly qualified to comment on the law in other countries.
[I never really thought of them having China to lose, hence my puzzlement.]
Diog, USA owns everything, dont you know that.
Like the Pissyleaks cables, that’s why they are screaming now: “Who Lost the Cables?”.
USA is very good at losing something like the wars.
Who Lost the Australian Cricket Team!!!!!
Finns,
Diogs
[The Finnigans
Posted Friday, December 17, 2010 at 1:53 pm | Permalink
Who Lost the Australian Cricket Team!!!!!]
I think it would go well down to blame Gen Y and their Ipod culture.
have any of you fellows out there that seem mesmerised by the wiki thing
thought of perhaps, trying to turn your attention to christmas, .
There must be children on christmas island that are christians, we should encourage the gov to celebrate christmas for them does any one know Tim Costello or someone in the community who has a profile, to ask the australian people to send present and clothes for the children.
It would help put a human face on the situation and people could see that these children are just like their own.
YOu must know someone Dio you are very well connected may be some one owes you a favour, come on wiliam put your thinking cap on.,
your in perth is there some one there who would WISH BOB GELDOLF would shame the austrlian people in to this,
Time for mercy rule in the cricket?
JG still trying to look tough and managerial.
[Two thirds of the 1 million Christians in Iraq have fled persecution since Saddams demise. Half of those who fled have left this year alone.
Where are they going to go?]
there you GO THERE ARE CHRISTIANS who would be among these people.
Ring Brendon Oconnors rooms in canberra suggest it to chris bowen.
The ABC radio news has just stated that the A.G has said that the Federal Police cannot find any Australian laws that Assenge has broken nor are there any charges against him or Wikiileaks under Australian Law! Cop that Gillard !
NOTHING !!!!NADA…ZILCH !
I hope the
lynch mob on this blog,Ron/Vik./and Frank and others, will have the decency to acknowledge their error,and stop their endless tirades against the man…
More important when will Gillard apologise for her “illegal actions ” remarks against Assenge.
Hopefully she…and her stupid accomplice in the slander,Plibesek ..will front up too…but don’t hold your breath !….those two don’t do common decency anymore!
[Prime Minister Julia Gillard has previously condemned Mr Assange’s actions, calling them “illegal”.
But she later moderated her language, saying it was the theft of the US cables that was the illegal act, while Mr Assange’s role was “grossly irresponsible”. SMH]
I hope she defines for all of us what constitutes “grossly irresponsibility”. I suspect it’s mainly about offending a certain country’s politicians.
I assume dear old lumpy McClelland is looking into defining “gross irresponsibility” as a crime, unless you are a politician, of course with parliamentry privilege.
I was ut of touch when the Gillar remarks were made. Can someone link to where she said Assange had broken the law.
[She didn’t specify Australian Law at the time.]
So what?
Should we start reviewing statements from Hillary Clinton to find out whether she speaks of UK laws being broken?
Its reasonable to expect Joolya to have been speaking about Australian jurisdictions.
try this Gos
ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVpQrztCsLg&feature=related
Evan
You are norty!
But I like you :kiss:
[there you GO THERE ARE CHRISTIANS who would be among these people.
Ring Brendon Oconnors rooms in canberra suggest it to chris bowen.]
http://www.newsday.com/news/pope-calls-christians-the-most-persecuted-1.2546802
And a call for help for these people from the Pope to match.
If it is any consolation, we are doing better than India:
[Famed Indian batting line up collapses, India 136/9 on Day 1 – One will need to think again if this is actually a contest between the two top and supposedly evenly matched sides of the world. Questioning the ability of a team on the very first day of the tour sounds premature and perhaps juvenile as well, but then it can’t be helped when the team puts in as spineless show as India did on Thursday.
It took South African pacemen just 38 overs — that’s what could be bowled following a delayed start due to rain — to expose India’s vulnerability on the quick and seaming track, and leave them tottering at 136 for 9.]
http://www.hindustantimes.com/rssfeed/cricketnews/Famed-Indian-batting-line-up-collapses-India-136-9-on-Day-1/Article1-639136.aspx
He he he, have we called Ponting and his losers “spinesless” yet?
Can’t access You Tube from here I’m afraid.
Finns
What’d I tell you about Johno getting 200?
Well I was only about 150 short 🙂
And later, attempts to back down a little
This performance is weirder .. she backs down a bit but some how brings in the Swedisd allegations as relevant to wikileaks…
She really loves the word GROSS!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLkNeftLiEU&feature=related
Amigo, how are the wombats today?
Ponting and his losers could use the wombat holes right now to hide their shame. 😥
OMG, Mitchy got a wicket!!! Amigo, you are riGHt, he will get 20 wickets!!!
Johnson gets a wicket at last !!!
Is someone sabotaging ABC 24- lost coverage again!
when i read the comments here i really understand why there is so many atheists in this country dont any of you give a dam about the season and christmas.
will you all be sitting down for christmas lunch and remembering just why you are sitting down with the family.
i would expect a bit of good will here for the pm she is entitled to her opinions re world affairs.
there are many things better left not known or said in this world do we really need to know the insides of everything, may be if we did we would not sleep at night.
get over it.
May be most of us are just happy not knowing who said what to whom ect.
this new media has got to stop somewhere , ask yourself where you just as happy before the internet the mobile phone and the twitter and the face book, or are you happier now, only those who where born before these events i suppose could answer
sometimes ignorance is bliss.
[Posted Friday, December 17, 2010 at 2:12 pm | Permalink
there you GO THERE ARE CHRISTIANS who would be among these people.
Ring Brendon Oconnors rooms in canberra suggest it to chris bowen]
]
how rude
I read recently that the great majority of Iraqi Christians have been granted asylum in nearby Syria,with which Iraq has a common border.
While Syria has long been demonised by the Israelis and their lobby in the USA,it has shown great compassion to these refugees,many of whom
are professionals.
This has created problems for Syria…a housing shortage in Damascus and other cities and big costs in providing basic services to these desperate people,but the Syrian are coping…but were refused aid from the USAID group in terms of the basic foodstuffs.flour.sugar.cooking oil.etc…even though Bush’s Invasion of Iraq caused their flight from their country into Syria.
In Syria about 10% of the people are Christians…and Syria is a secular arab state.where all religions are free to operate.
It has some of the oldest Christian groups in the world..some still speak an ancient language called Aramaic ,extinct elsewhere,but once common in the Middle East at the time of Christ and his apostles who would have understood it. It’s a semitic language like Hebrew or Arabic.
blue green i trust you will be celebrating christmas then i take it
[how rude]
What was rude, My Say?
I think you misunderstood my words My Say
radmarsupial
I woke up just before midnight and switched on local radio for the news while I had a cuppa and it was a 2ue link.
So no surprise really that they were getting stuck into gillard.
However she didn’t sound good, said wtte that she would not be using any spin words then went on to say “diplomacy” about 10 times in the next sentence.
Shock jock just played it over and over making sarcastic comments.
She ain’t up to the job and never was IMO.
o well i will just do my own thing to try my damdest to see if i and other who care about the children get something going for them
My Say,
what did I say that was rude? I just directed you to a website that included the Pope’s statements that there should be less persecutions of Christians especially in Iraq.
What is so rude about that?
my say@3384
By definition an atheist would not believe the Christmas story / myth so other than being a cultural tradition it has no significance.
She is the PM and cannot afford the luxury of spouting ill-informed opinions like we can. She is expected to get things right.
BTW, I know we have different views on religion and I differ on the above points but I really find some of your posts quite insightful. Some real gems among them. 🙂
my say, as a product of 12 years schooling at a catholic school, being an altar boy etc… but now being an atheist, i struggle with the xmas season. I am acutely aware of it origins, and that my current thoughts on god/jesus etc mean that i dont really believe them. so it is a conflict for me at a philosophical level.
however there is also the social relationship side which means it has always been a time of year for catching up with my large family. that i still enjoy.
Amigo, we’ve had a couple of nice sunny days so the wombats have dried out now.
Last night there were a couple of dozen cows mooing outside my bedroom window… I think… I may have been having romantic dreams 😉
UN High Commission report on 700.000 Iraqi refugees in Syria,and Syria aid to them
Another 500.00 are in Jordon
How many in the USA ????
http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/page?page=49e486a76
Another Wicket!!!!
I’m surprised the AFP cleared Assange and Wikileaks so quickly. Surely they could have scratched up some dodgy half-baked charge to keep their options open.
Where is their loyalty!!
Dio, they managed it so quickly with Haneef! have all the creatiev types left the AFP??
Diog
First he is released in the UK and then the AFP clear him.
Its a left wing conspiracy.