The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred after three weeks at 51-49. This sets a new record for their best ever performance from Essential Research, which began polling in early 2008. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 46 per cent, with Labor and the Greens both down one to 37 per cent and 10 per cent. I guess we have to wait another weak for questions on Wikileaks: this week’s supplementary questions relate to whether it’s been a good or bad year for various industries, the environment, political parties, politicians and the respondents personally. Respondents were also asked which news sources they use, which more than any such question I’ve ever seen suggests the long hegemony of television news is under serious threat from “internet news sites”. Six per cent said they used blogs to get news on an average weekday, with intriguing party breakdowns: 10 per cent among Greens supporters, 7 per cent among Coalition supporters and 4 per cent among Labor supporters. Public broadcasters maintain solid lead as the news sources considered most trustworthy.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan phone polled another 528 respondents between Friday and Sunday to add to the 550 polled on Wednesday and Thursday for Friday’s 55-45 result. The additions to the sample have only slightly reduced the Coalition two-party lead, to 54.5-45.5. Together with a weekly Essential Research sample that was bad enough for Labor to drag the rolling fortnighly total from 51-49 to 52-48, there is now meaningful evidence to suggest the Coalition two-party vote is at least as high as 53 per cent. Morgan also has state breakdowns of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, though it probably wouldn’t do to read too much into them.
UPDATE 2 (14/12): Westpoll has published a survey of 400 respondents showing the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46 in WA, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election, from primary votes of 48 per cent Coalition, 33 per cent Labor and 13 per cent Greens. The poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday last week, and as usual the sample was 400 and the margin of error about 5 per cent. The poll also finds 61 per cent of respondents supporting gay marriage against 33 per cent opposed. Figures published from the survey yesterday had 35 per cent saying they would be less likely to vote for the state Liberals if Troy Buswell was returned to cabinet, against “almost one in six” more likely and 45 per cent no impact.
UPDATE 3 (14/12): Roy Morgan has now published full figures from the phone poll alluded to in the first update, remembering that half of this is the 55-45 result which was published on Friday. Taken together, the poll has Labor on 31 per cent, the Coalition on 46 per cent and the Greens on 13.5 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5. Results are provided for that half of the survey conducted since the results published on Friday, which are only slightly better for Labor than the Friday figures. Rather pointlessly for a national survey with 1078 respondents, they have also provided us with state breakdowns: here are the Labor two-party figures for each state followed by the election results in brackets, then a rough margin-of-error after the comma. The Victorian figure suggests to me that static from the state election might have been a factor there.
New South Wales: 45.5% (48.8%), 5.25%
Victoria: 47.5% (55.3%), 6%
Queensland: 36.5% (44.9%), 6.75%
Western Australia: 50% (43.6%), 9.5%
South Australia: 52% (53.2%), 10.5%
So can the coalition maintain their election winning lead for three more years?
Things are dire when both Morgan and Essential have the coalition in front.
We aren’t very trustworthy according to Essential 😆
[
The least trustworthy were internet blogs (57% seldom/no trust), newspapers (29%), commercial radio news (27%) and commercial TV news (26%).
]
given that essential rolls its polls over two weeks, we can assume the lead to the coalition is greater.
William, it is an online survey, which surely skews the use of internet responses.
14% thought it was a BAD year for the mining industry???
Everytime Tony Abbott becomes quiet the coalitions polls go up 🙂
Prediction: Next Newspoll 53-47 to coalition.
MMmm, I will have to go back and revisit some of that stuff. Something in my statisical mind is not gelling.
Are there any more Newspolls this year?
The which media do you trust answers were clearly all lies. Half the voting public reading newspapers daily, 10% watching SBS news. What rot.
I think people have lied to make themselves sound smarter.
It could also show that, they don’t want either party atm.
Polls are up and down.
[Are there any more Newspolls this year?]
Labor will be hoping not I imagine.
Prediction: prime minister Shorty
[Everytime Tony Abbott becomes quiet the coalitions polls go up]
I think he is beginning to agree with you b_g
[brisoz
Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 2:26 pm | Permalink
It could also show that, they don’t want either party atm.
Polls are up and down.]
A PV of 46 % for the coalition is a solid vote.
My concern is that a high proportion who listen/watch it trust the ABC are telling the truth.
[I think he is beginning to agree with you b_g]
Well he is in a winning position. The problem for him is that is a winning position 3 years out.
Although I guess it is better than being 20 points behind.
How the hell do you answer “have the media had a good/bad year?”
In what way? Profit? scandal? You like their programs? The presenters are pretty?
To me that’s a nonsense question.
[lizzie
Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 2:27 pm | Permalink
My concern is that a high proportion who listen/watch it trust the ABC are telling the truth.]
Well they do to the truth1 “The oppn leader says….” 😆
Could the statistically numerate (?) advise on the significance of asking people whether its been a “good” or “bad” year for an organisation?
[lizzie
Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 2:30 pm | Permalink
How the hell do you answer “have the media had a good/bad year?”
In what way? Profit? scandal? You like their programs? The presenters are pretty?
To me that’s a nonsense question.]
People sometimes answer these questions more like a test thant a survey. They are anxious to get the answers to the questions ‘right’.
b_g
Well, I’d fail the test. 😛
If he is still leader at election time Abbott might spend the whole campaign doing triathlons and never utter a word on politics….. that would be a first
Labor 48/52 ?
Seems peoples is a little reluctant to say th two obvous reasons changes thats happened causing Labor’s slide from 50/50% on electon day until now , but votes gone TO th Liberals and there they is , causes and effects
do you think that the person doing the tweeting would learn to spel?
[AustralianLabor A competative and sustainable banking system http://dlvr.it/BGDZN #AusPol #AusLabor ]
No. They stuffed it the media release too.
[A competative and sustainable banking system
Wayne Swan posted Sunday, 19 December 2010
Today the Gillard Government is announcing it will take further action to promote a competitive and sustainable banking system to give every Australian a fairer go.]
And what pray tell would you clowns get from the coalition of clowns, they have not a policy to bless themselves with beside exiling a couple of thousand refugees to another country.
What is the point of these moronic polls anyway?
Ron
It seems to me that Labor vote has remained steady. The Greens have lost votes to the Libs.
[What is the point of these moronic polls anyway?]
To give us something to talk about on PB!
great poll. this is exactly where the ALP needs to be. just behind so they can focus on governing for the next 2 years implementing good policy instead of being worried about maintaining stratospheric poll leads.
[prime minister Shorty]
I don’t think he’s a good enough public performer to win an election.
[great poll. this is exactly where the ALP needs to be. just behind so they can focus on governing for the next 2 years implementing good policy instead of being worried about maintaining stratospheric poll leads.]
Or they could start focus group testing the popularity of other leadership candidates 😆
Where has the myth about Shorten being the next leader come from?
I agree with triton.
And PB-ers looking for a new leader is a stupid move.
[great poll. this is exactly where the ALP needs to be.]
I would give more benefit to the poll if the Rabbott was still carrying on with his usual form.
He is morphing & due I suspect to negative internal polling on his tactics & negative responses from focus groups.
Remember, these are the sort of numbers that the Coalition held leading up to the election before nearly swiping it away from the ALP.
[Remember, these are the sort of numbers that the Coalition held leading up to the election before nearly swiping it away from the ALP.]
Aren’t these numbers better?
centaur009
Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 2:26 pm | Permalink
Prediction: prime minister Shorty
Naughty, naughty!
A change of leadership before the next election would mean political death for the ALP.
If they don’t like Julia now, it’s hard to see how she can wow them later.
b_g
[Aren’t these numbers better?]
It slightly concerns me b_g but the alarms haven’t rang yet!
The Coalition was in this negative territory in the months leading up to the election.
[Toorak Toff
Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 2:49 pm | Permalink
If they don’t like Julia now, it’s hard to see how she can wow them later.]
Liking is important. But so is respecting. And so is actually knowing what she is trying to achieve.
[It slightly concerns me b_g but the alarms haven’t rang yet!]
It is clearly a winning position for the oppn. But that comes with advantages and disadvantages for them
[A majority of their own voters thought Julia Gillard (69%) and Bob Brown (68%) have had a good year but only 44% of Liberal/National voters think Tony Abbott has had
a good year. There is a substantial gender difference on the assessment of Tony Abbott – men split 37% good/30% bad and women 23% good/36% bad.]
Where’s all the hate? I don’t see it.
For what this poll is worth a significant number of voters think Julia has had a good year. Poor old Tony not so many.
Nowhere have I seen a significant drop in support, if any at all, for the PM.
The polls will not have any bearing on anything until next year. At the moment the public like the PM but are still a bit iffy about the party.
Well I retract my first stated slight concern. Just had a good look at the polling questions & it is total nonsense.
[Remember, these are the sort of numbers that the Coalition held leading up to the election before nearly swiping it away from the ALP.
Aren’t these numbers better?]
who cares if the libs are slightly ahead. they would need to be 56/44 territory for it to matter. beazley was constantly out polling howard in the years & months before each election by even more than this poll. election was called polls tightened and voters did not want to change. same thing will happen if the ALP focus on implementing good policy maintain the economcy etc.
Succession planning is always a good thing to attend to when you see your bosses flailing around like fish out of water.
I think the reason why Abbott would win is that they are sick of him complaining about how bad the Gillard govt is and the only way to end the endless whining is to vote the blighter in.
Doyley,
That is it. The consistency with which JG manages to outpoll RAbbott. Nothing has changed on that front so it isn’t a leadership issue with Jules.
Given that people are getting their news from online, and the ABC I can only think that this consistent goverment bashing and perpetuating of outright lies is starting to take its toll.
The government is going to have to start taking a proactive stance against the lies and correct them before they argue a case.
[He is morphing & due I suspect to negative internal polling on his tactics & negative responses from focus groups.]
There has to be doubt about the extent to which he can morph. He’s brilliant at opposing and he loves doing it, so he won’t stop. Whatever else he adds to that might not be enough.
People talk about “winning position”. In a position to win what ? A election in January ?