Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred after three weeks at 51-49. This sets a new record for their best ever performance from Essential Research, which began polling in early 2008. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 46 per cent, with Labor and the Greens both down one to 37 per cent and 10 per cent. I guess we have to wait another weak for questions on Wikileaks: this week’s supplementary questions relate to whether it’s been a good or bad year for various industries, the environment, political parties, politicians and the respondents personally. Respondents were also asked which news sources they use, which more than any such question I’ve ever seen suggests the long hegemony of television news is under serious threat from “internet news sites”. Six per cent said they used blogs to get news on an average weekday, with intriguing party breakdowns: 10 per cent among Greens supporters, 7 per cent among Coalition supporters and 4 per cent among Labor supporters. Public broadcasters maintain solid lead as the news sources considered most trustworthy.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan phone polled another 528 respondents between Friday and Sunday to add to the 550 polled on Wednesday and Thursday for Friday’s 55-45 result. The additions to the sample have only slightly reduced the Coalition two-party lead, to 54.5-45.5. Together with a weekly Essential Research sample that was bad enough for Labor to drag the rolling fortnighly total from 51-49 to 52-48, there is now meaningful evidence to suggest the Coalition two-party vote is at least as high as 53 per cent. Morgan also has state breakdowns of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, though it probably wouldn’t do to read too much into them.

UPDATE 2 (14/12): Westpoll has published a survey of 400 respondents showing the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46 in WA, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election, from primary votes of 48 per cent Coalition, 33 per cent Labor and 13 per cent Greens. The poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday last week, and as usual the sample was 400 and the margin of error about 5 per cent. The poll also finds 61 per cent of respondents supporting gay marriage against 33 per cent opposed. Figures published from the survey yesterday had 35 per cent saying they would be less likely to vote for the state Liberals if Troy Buswell was returned to cabinet, against “almost one in six” more likely and 45 per cent no impact.

UPDATE 3 (14/12): Roy Morgan has now published full figures from the phone poll alluded to in the first update, remembering that half of this is the 55-45 result which was published on Friday. Taken together, the poll has Labor on 31 per cent, the Coalition on 46 per cent and the Greens on 13.5 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5. Results are provided for that half of the survey conducted since the results published on Friday, which are only slightly better for Labor than the Friday figures. Rather pointlessly for a national survey with 1078 respondents, they have also provided us with state breakdowns: here are the Labor two-party figures for each state followed by the election results in brackets, then a rough margin-of-error after the comma. The Victorian figure suggests to me that static from the state election might have been a factor there.

New South Wales: 45.5% (48.8%), 5.25%
Victoria: 47.5% (55.3%), 6%
Queensland: 36.5% (44.9%), 6.75%
Western Australia: 50% (43.6%), 9.5%
South Australia: 52% (53.2%), 10.5%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,482 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  5. The problem with nations like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland is that they have been living above their means courtesy of incompetent and corrupt socialist governments.

    Tough austerity measures preferably by strict conservative governments is what is required.

  7. Other voices at the Senate inquiry into bank competition –

    Banking code bombshell

    Ken Phillips

    Published 9:58 AM, 13 Dec 2010 Last update 10:03 AM, 13 Dec 2010

    Banks, already weary from the relentless bashing from all sides of politics, should brace themselves for a new phrase of criticism that goes beyond interest rates. The Senate inquiry into bank competition has received a submission from the peak small business lobby group containing allegations that have the potential to rock Australian banking.

    The 335 page report from the Council of Small Business Organisations of Australia (COSBOA) alleges that the banks have effectively subverted their very own Code of Banking Practice to more of less neuter it, and describes in exacting detail how they’ve gone about it.

    The code is the result of a legislative journey that started in the early 1980s. Before then banks were heavily regulated, but in 1981 the laws were significantly eased. However concerns emerged that deregulation had gone too far and following the Martin Committee report of 1991 the banks were required to establish a government approved, self-regulation Code of Banking Practice.

    The theory was that, rather than returning to the early 1980s and imposing regulation for their behaviours with consumers and small business people, the banks should be trusted to do this themselves. Hence the Code was born.

    So the banks use the Code as evidence that they are moral, trustworthy and, more importantly, don’t need regulation to be so. Logically, it’s also core to the banks’ collective ethical branding, their image as good corporate citizens. Any damage to the Code’s credibility opens the door for parliament to initiate aggressive regulation and also trashes the banks’ ethical branding – which is already being tarnished by the interest rate debate – at the same time. This is the scenario that the COSBOA report threatens to bring about.

    The Code looks terrific on paper. It spells out your rights as a consumer or small businessperson in dealing with a bank. It covers such matters as each bank’s obligation to disclose fees and charges, when and how terms and conditions of agreements can change, your right to privacy, management of documents, approaches on debt collection and importantly, how complaints will be handled. The banks go as far as describing it as a ‘binding agreement’ suggesting it has legal force.

    There’s supposedly an independent compliance committee that monitors the Code and investigates and determines complaints against banks. This sounds good and should give customers confidence of fair treatment under the Code.

    However the COSBOA report alleges that around 2004 the banks ‘captured’ the compliance committee. They established a ‘Code of Banking Practice Code Compliance Monitors Committee Association’ and it’s alleged in the report that the technique they used was to write an unpublished and undisclosed constitution for the compliance committee that “precludes them (the members of the committee) from effectively carrying out their duties”.

    In short, the allegation is that these actions mean the code is of little use to a consumer or small businessperson in a dispute with a bank. The only dispute recourse is expensive litigation in which the banks have the financial upper hand to intimidate.

    If the Code were effective it wouldn’t have taken the ABC’s Four Corners program to point out the small business people being caught out by the telco scam because they would have had their problems fixed through the Code compliance committee. Instead they are swept up in massive court actions with banks.

    COSBOA goes so far as to allege that there is a “collusive agreement” between the Code’s 12 subscribing banks who are engaging in “deviant behaviour…which has the effect of reducing competition in the Australian banking sector.” The report says that investigations should occur into possible breaches by the banks and bankers of the Trade Practices Act, cartel conduct and even criminal deception.

    Rarely have accusations of this scale been levied against the banks. No doubt the banks will be subjected to considerable questioning in the Senate inquiry related to the COSBOA, Code allegations.

    Yes legal issues are at stake. But the banks claim to being reliable, ethical and honest corporate citizens is under challenge.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-new-bank-bashing-front-pd20101210-BZ4MB?OpenDocument&src=sph

  8. While these polls are like this Labor is sure to keep the support of the indies. Which party do you think benefits by these polls at the moment, which party would go to the polls at the drop of a hat if they could to benefit from their poll standing and which small unaligned parliamentary group of individuals don’t want an early election?

  9. Centre@105

    The problem with nations like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland is that they have been living above their means courtesy of incompetent and corrupt socialist governments.

    Tough austerity measures preferably by strict conservative governments is what is required.

    Both sides of Greek politics are corrupt & very few pay tax – mainly the workers, our PAYE equivalent.

    In Ireland, Labor is in opposition.

    Spain & Portugal – don’t know.

    But the Germany Banks are broke, under a conservative government as is Italy’s.

    The Nordic countries mainly have socialist governments and they are doing OK.

  12. [ Gary
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 4:26 pm | Permalink
    Anyone wanting to use these polls to say Labor is gorn for the next election is just mischief making. Get a bloody grip.
    ]

    But the naysayers are the new breed of Born Again Liberals who have finally seen the light.

  14. William, betting on the date of the next election has been suspended due to a lack of demand.

    I think Truthy got you 😆

    Obviously any bets already made still stand.

  15. Centre@111

    But the Germany Banks are broke

    So they are not ripping people off then

    The keyword is *yet*.

    After the Irish election early 2011 , the new government will have a strong incentive to default on the bailout package because of its harsh & punitive conditions.

    If default does occur the germany, UK & french banks cop *haircuts* which will decimate their capital reserves and their governments will have to bail them out.

    Thats when the *screwing* of their people will occur.

  16. http://centrebet.com/cust

    Date of Next Aust Federal Election – Date of Next Federal Election
    On or Before 31st Dec 2011 2.05
    1st Jan 2012 to 30th Jun 2012 5.65
    1st Jul 2012 to 31st Dec 2012 6.50
    1st Jan 2013 to 30th Jun 2013 9.00
    1st Jul 2013 to 31st Dec 2013 2.90
    Anytime in 2014 17.00

  18. [ Centre
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 4:46 pm | Permalink
    William, betting on the date of the next election has been suspended due to a lack of demand.

    I think Truthy got you

    Obviously any bets already made still stand.
    ]

    Or Truthy & william are one and the same – notice they have never been seen together at tghe same time ?? 🙂

  20. I read this also the other day and it is quite disturbing.

    … maintaining that U.S. authorities are trying to get custody of his client.

    “We have heard from the Swedish authorities there has been a secretly empanelled grand jury in Alexandria…just over the river from Washington DC, next to the Pentagon,” Stephens said. “They are currently investigating this, and indeed the Swedes we understand have said that if he comes to Sweden, they will defer their interest in him to the Americans. Now that shows some level of collusion and embarrassment, so it does seem to me what we have here is nothing more than holding charges…so ultimately they can get their mitts on him.”

    Last week, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said, “We have a very serious criminal investigation that’s underway, and we’re looking at all of the things that we can do to try to stem the flow of this information.”

    You can be sure they will try to quickly grab try and hide away Assange.

    The US have become the terrorists they say they are fighting against. Their reaction and now seems to anybody they think is in opposition to them is lock them up or kill them. They are a becoming a true mafia state.

    There is no way Assange should be extradited to the USA from anywhere. It is quite apparent given all the rhetoric in the USA and from their authorities that they know they have no law that can apply to him, and so need to set up a rail-roading adventure to process him ASAP before they can be interjected.

    Gillard’s abject failure to protect an Australian citizen under no charge and to be subject persecution by a mindless super power is sickening, and her attempt to indirectly smear him is likewise, disgusting.

    Those who so easily toss out basic human rights in order to protect Gillard from criticism are a symptom of democracy and rights at law corrupted by the likes of Howard and Bush.

  21. It’s not strange Gus. There is no demand for it. If there was, clear links would be displayed to their prices.

    Stick to Wikileaks 😆

  22. Are there rules about betting for politics and who can bet, anything stopping the three indies putting a couple hundred grand on Jan 2013 and having a really well funded campaign then?

  23. [ Centre
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 4:55 pm | Permalink
    It’s not strange Gus. There is no demand for it. If there was, clear links would be displayed to their prices.

    Stick to Wikileaks
    ]

    And even with that he’s wRONg.

  24. [The problem with nations like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland is that they have been living above their means courtesy of incompetent and corrupt socialist governments.

    Tough austerity measures preferably by strict conservative governments is what is required.]

    Yes and the problem with nations like the USA is that they have been living beyond their means courtesy of an incompetent and corrupt conservative govt from 2000-2008.

  25. Those who so easily throw out their brains & scruples in order to smother Gillard in pointless and hyperbolic bile have become the endlessly propagandising bullies they claim to be fighting against.

  26. No, there are no rules jassie.

    And no, professional bookies can smell a rat as well as we can smell Tone. And what a smelly animal that is :LOL: (shades of Craig Emerson in QT)

    As early as October 2009, some bloke made enquiries with a bookie to back Gillard to lead Labor to the election. The bookie being cautious only bet him 6/1. The odds at the time should have been a million to one. That is as early as Oct 09.

  27. the spectator –

    Yes and the problem with nations like the USA is that they have been living beyond their means courtesy of an incompetent and corrupt conservative govt from 2000-2008.

    Correct.

  29. [ Jasmine
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 5:06 pm | Permalink
    Oh Kersebleptes … they are much worse than the endlessy propagandising bullies they claim to fight against
    ]

    And they have the gall to call those who defend the Govt with vigour as Bullies.

    The usual statement concerning Kitchen utensils apply.

  31. Regarding the economic comments, Spectator could have gone further. There have been right wing governments through most of the period of debt accumulation in Italy, Greece and Ireland. Of the “PIIGS”, only Spain had a left wing government when most of the debt was accumulated. Of the rest, only Britain was Labor for most of the decade. So it was largely “conservative” 😀 (i.e. insanely right wing) governments that created this mess in Europe as well as USA.

    Of course, a lot of “conservatives” are all frantically trying to rewrite history to deny responsibility, hoping that people are dumb enough to believe them. But ten seconds thought should prevent that. This debt and GFC is NOT the result of tax-and-spend socialism. It is mainly Private debt resulting from too little taxation and public spending, too much private spending, and far too weak restrictions over borrowing. You can’t blame socialists for that.

  32. confessions –

    Mr Assange should be aggressively interrogated until he reveals the location of the stolen cables, so they can be retrieved.
    about 4 hours ago via web

    via Bronnie’s twitter.

    Bronnie probably has in mind her old favourite – the every reliable kerosene bath !

    No smoking please.

  33. Dave
    [After the Irish election early 2011 , the new government will have a strong incentive to default on the bailout package because of its harsh & punitive conditions.

    If default does occur the germany, UK & french banks cop *haircuts* which will decimate their capital reserves and their governments will have to bail them out.

    Thats when the *screwing* of their people will occur.]
    I agree with the risk but disagree that this is inevitable or indeed the best answer. Why not just let some of the banks fail? Their capital reserves are fiction. At the moment they are being propped up by the taxpayer, in the hope they will keep the economy going. But it isn’t working; they are not lending so Europe is stagnating anyway. The Swedish solution makes more sense: let the banks fail, the government buys them out, lending begins again, and those who took a punt on the stock market take the hair cut. Too bad. But I fear the moral hazard solution will win out, because too many badly advised governments have bought this LIE that banks are too big to fail. IMO many bankers should now be in jail, not dictating national economic policy.

  35. Socs –

    I agree with the risk but disagree that this is inevitable or indeed the best answer. Why not just let some of the banks fail? Their capital reserves are fiction. At the moment they are being propped up by the taxpayer, in the hope they will keep the economy going. But it isn’t working; they are not lending so Europe is stagnating anyway. The Swedish solution makes more sense: let the banks fail, the government buys them out, lending begins again, and those who took a punt on the stock market take the hair cut. Too bad. But I fear the moral hazard solution will win out, because too many badly advised governments have bought this LIE that banks are too big to fail. IMO many bankers should now be in jail, not dictating national economic policy.

    I basically agree. Allow bond holders & shareholders to be wiped out (That is how capitalism is supposed to work).

    Governments will not let depositors to lose their savings, so the Banks are then nationalised, recapitalised, remaining assets, loans etc sold and then the Bank refloated on share markets, but broken up. Like Sweden did.

    The fly in the ointment is what the contagion risk is.

    But taxpayers may well take a haircut on guaranteeing deposits – although an upper limit per depositor could be set – $ 1 Million or so ?

  36. [Those who so easily throw out their brains & scruples in order to smother Gillard in pointless and hyperbolic bile have become the endlessly propagandising bullies they claim to be fighting against.]

    Kersebleptes – thanks. TP has become so monotonous in his Abbottlike mantra against Gillard that it is hard to read his posts now. A great pity because TP used to contribute so well before his seemingly demented rants against Gillard.

  37. [too many badly advised governments have bought this LIE that banks are too big to fail]

    Poppycock!

    Many believe that the recession may not have been as severe had Leaman Bros been rescued.

    No Irish government is going to default on a bailout package.

    Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal don’t have conservative governments.

    *gone for a workout to maintain stamina for weekend*

  38. confessions, the fact that the tweet you list does look as if comes from the real Bronwyn Bishop really is truly frightening. This woman actually gets to vote on NBN related legislation!

    I wonder whether she imagines they are paper docs , or whether perhaps she has even got wikileaks confused with the recent heists of copper wires that have been popular in recent months! 😉

    Definitely one worth saving for posterity!

  39. Rod:

    Bronnie is one of parliament’s elders, but even I didn’t expect she’d be so clueless on how the internet works. I’m still having trouble believing she could be that clueless. It *has* to be a fake!

  41. [Kersebleptes – thanks. TP has become so monotonous in his Abbottlike mantra against Gillard that it is hard to read his posts now. A great pity because TP used to contribute so well before his seemingly demented rants against Gillard.]
    TP comes across as a deep thinking intelligent person who is side tracked by his fixation with getting rid of Gillard. It really is propaganda at its best. Pity.

  42. centre –

    Many believe that the recession may not have been as severe had Leaman Bros been rescued.

    Upside with no liability for the downside. Thats like putting a manager of a nuclear plant on an incentive bonus based on cost savings.

    The US has now passed laws making bank bailouts illegal. No – I don’t believe them either.

    Those laws also include a so called *living will* that automatically allows closure, liquidation, bankrupcy without bailouts.

    No Irish government is going to default on a bailout package.

    No one can see the future. What we know is that Ireland just cannot service its debts under the bailout package – it can barely pay the interest.

    As Martin Wolf wrote in the Financial Times, the Irish banking system is worse than too big to fail; it is too big to save. The first duty of the state is to save itself, not to load its taxpayers with obligations to rescue careless lenders.

    BTW Ireland didn’t have a labor government. The problems in greece were caused by governments of the left and the right.

    The bulk of the US problems happened under the most vile republican administration in living memory. Obama hasn’t covered himself in glory either.

  43. confessions@139

    Rod:

    Bronnie is one of parliament’s elders, but even I didn’t expect she’d be so clueless on how the internet works. I’m still having trouble believing she could be that clueless. It *has* to be a fake!

    *probably* a fake. She is a former barrister, apparently…

  44. https://twitter.com/#!/bronwynbishopmp/

    [BronwynBishopMP Bronwyn Bishop
    I accept that the stolen cables may be in “electronic” form and therefore not physical, retrievable objects. However, it’s the principle.
    3 minutes ago]

    It’s her allright man what a nasty peice of work she is too. I read through her tweets over the last year .. yuck she does seem to have a thing for Truss though.
    When’s Grog going to do a CSI job on Bronnies and Warrens tweets !

  45. Bronnie has had the hair done and has threatened to go all Swedish when Julian comes home. Julian has apparently requested an immediate mercy transfer to the US.

  47. Gus:

    I know, I know. But jeez, have you seen all her tweets about Warren Truss? Lunches, dinners, cheering him on in parliament, great to be back in Canberra to see him again? I mean, who writes stuff like that?

  48. [ William Bowe
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 5:54 pm | Permalink
    I seem to recall hearing that Brownyn Bishop does not in fact use Twitter, and that a seemingly plausible impersonator was not actually her.
    ]

    Her Daughter Angela ?? 🙂

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