Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,783 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. […placement of this information on the Wikileaks website…and an illegal thing to do]

    And that isn’t even true.

    They can’t seem to get away from using the words illegal with regard to Assange, WikiLeaks. It is an old tactic, we saw a decade of this sort of stuff from Howard.

    *gone….stuff to do*

  3. Hi vik,

    Yes, I agree that the statement can indeed be read in the way you suggest, though the follow up question from the interviewer, and JG’s response, tends to tie it somewhat to Assange when you see it in context – though there is still some “wriggle room”:

    [HOST: Good well that will be good for them and I think it’ll be good for you as well. Wikileaks, what should we be worried about, you’d have had the briefing by now, what are they telling you we should be waiting for?

    PM: Look I have been receiving briefings and we have a whole process to go through all of this information, I mean, millions of pieces of information and asses the implications for us. So we’ll work through that and I absolutely condemn the placement of this information on the Wikileaks website, it’s a grossly irresponsible thing to do, and an illegal thing to do.

    HOST: It’s going to be interesting to see where that ultimately goes and Queensland’s claiming Mr Assange and his mother’s a little bit terrified and disappointed and worried about him, Australia I guess will have some say when people catch up to him as to what happens to him I would hope we’d have some say.

    PM: You can always understand a mother’s love and anxiety about her son and I do understand that, but the wrong thing’s been done here.]

    Another thing that I think has got “lost in the wash” when people consider JG’s comments is that they came well before Assange actually ended up in custody or effective extradition warrants had been issued (the warrant came the following day), etc. They were not made at a time when they could be seen to be compromising an existing court case.

    I don’t think that JG handled this well in that interview (though to be fair it was a very brief discussion), but I do think that the manner in which subsequent events unfolded actually made it look worse than it otherwise would have.

  5. Enough of Wikileaks,

    The OO has again dressed up opinion as fact in its articles relating to the banking package. This is getting to a point where it is almost farcical. PBr’s are able to predict exactly what their opinion is without fail. But the bit I find absurd is that that are outright lies about facts and dates, which are readily checked and found to be incorrect in about 30 seconds, but they insist on perpetuating lies.

  6. rod tp deblonay spaceK 6.5 stars generals et al

    Wikileaks did get the data raw

    and from more than one source.

    There is no timetable except for the original one published whne the big 5 got the cables

    The smear slurs and shite by the wikihaters show more a lack of intellectual accuity as opposed to sheer bloody mindness (with notable exceptions)

    Deal as one would a naughty and recalcatrint child

  7. [She did NOT accuse Assange of doing anything illegal. She did NOT name Assange.]

    Of course, politicians would never engage in language that will be perceived a particular way but which can be defended by a literal interpretation.

    Anyway, WikiLeaks and Assange have become synonymous. It is not certain that Gillard made the distinction with that statement in the middle of an interview. Also, has Gillard back-tracked at all, and if she has, has she done it by claiming she wasn’t referrring to Assange?

  8. I am wiki-bored.

    I do enjoy the statements that say ‘nobody has been hurt or killed from the leaks yet’.

    Like it was going to happen in minutes. (although I do wonder how the 1200 afghani informants feel about the Taliban saying they are on a hitlists).

    The damage from wikileaks will be a reluctance to share information. And that only damages the US. It does nothing to damage non-democratic states.

    The impacts from this will be seen over the next decade. Not the next week.

  11. I find it amusing that something written by a US embassy official suddenly becomes the gospel truth.

    No, it actually becomes a super-truth or a hyper-truth.

    But the meta-truth of the situation is that there is always many sides to any story.

  14. b-g

    The Fairfax papers have been pathetic in this regard. They way it has been reported by them, it would appear that somehow it is the gospel truth. Very frustrating indeed. That is why Alan Howe’s piece in today’s Herald Sun gives some balance to the whole saga.

  18. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    b-g

    what do you think of Swan’s banking reforms?]

    Given the hyperbole from the banking association; they are probably onto something.

    Exit fees puts a considerable dampener on competition. I like the notion of account portability. I understand the paperwork in shifting accounts is riduculous- it would be easier to divorce your wife than to divorce your banker.

  21. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    I am nervous today. My daughter will be getting her VCE results soon.]

    Wow. Big day.

    Mine was full of dread.

    It shouldn’t seen as a pivitol moment though. I did OK (barely OK), got into one degree, bombed, changed degree and thrived. I since have done postgraduate stuff and are doing fine.

  23. blue_green,

    Exit fees were a lazy (and profitable) way of keeping customers over the longer term. Now the big banks will have to develop products which are designed in such a way as to be financially attractive for the customer to want to stay, This change will evolve slowly.

    The fifth pillar concept will take a lot longer to show any real benefits but it is definitely putting in the right foundations for a more competitive banking in the future.

  25. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    b-g

    I have worked in family law for years. Divorce is never easy. Believe me 😉 ]

    Good rhetoric though.

    Wayne Swan should say: “These reforms to day are about making it easier to change banks for your mortgage. Its not good enough in Australia that it is easier to divorce your wife than to divorce your banker. The Libs had over a decade to fix this but they let it get worse. Today is the beginning of our efforts to change this”.

  26. Local abc radio

    swan on about banking reforms took afew calls – good strong answers

    then asked about wikileaks

    defended assange rightas a citizen

    siad assange did not necessarily break anylaws by publishing as he had taken cables

    mentioned the online world and the way law and societys have to adapt

    mentioned he didnt want to prejudge

    the only response he should give

    IMHO

  27. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    b-g

    I agree. But my daughter wants a good score irrespective of what she does with it.
    Go figure.]

    Tell her, once you go to uni you never need to put your high school score on a resume ever.

  29. b-g

    My daughter is smart enough to know that. Goodness knows how many times the teachers have told them that as well. But I guess for today, the number will mean something to her.

  30. I like the irony of Assange getting a laptop from Rudd but Australia’s school children are still waiting for theirs!

    😆

    That is an opposition media release waiting to happen.

  31. Summer resolution

    I have just spent an hour reading all the posts overnight and have decided that from 10 pm to 9 am, the blog is off limits for me.
    The childish arguments and the vindictiveness towards some politicians do not do my health any good. Also, the instant interpretation of articles as “lies” or “now Julia’s toast” are so biased and puerile that I wonder at the age of the posters.
    This decision will not affect anyone else, but it was stimulated by the appearance of the sensible, logical morning bludgers.
    There, I’ve had my say.

  32. on a funny note about her VCE score. Her older brother has put bets on with some of his friends about the score she will get. He is interested in trying to win some money!!

  34. Space Kidette@2555

    Enough of Wikileaks,

    The OO has again dressed up opinion as fact in its articles relating to the banking package. This is getting to a point where it is almost farcical. PBr’s are able to predict exactly what their opinion is without fail. But the bit I find absurd is that that are outright lies about facts and dates, which are readily checked and found to be incorrect in about 30 seconds, but they insist on perpetuating lies.

    Another view SK. Gottliebsen is rarely pro Labor on anything –

    Swan will make banks suffer

    Robert Gottliebsen

    Published 4:28 PM, 12 Dec 2010

    In three months time bank shareholders will think that the latest Australian government moves are a row of beans because profits will not be affected. But in a year or two bank shareholders will come to understand just what a severe blow they were dealt on December 12, 2010.
    Indeed long term shareholders in each the big four Australian banks will look back at their 2010 crop of bank CEOs and say: “You muffed the greatest opportunity our bank ever had or will ever have to secure a unique local franchise.”

    Or let’s put it another way. Bad decisions by bank CEOs and their boards have goaded the Australian Parliament (it’s not just Treasurer Wayne Swan) into moving to make bank brands a little like soap powder which sells on low margins

    What Swan has done is clever and over time he will succeed to the detriment of big bank shareholders.

    Prior to the financial crisis foreign banks and non-banks were starting to provide real competition in some areas of the banking market. The GFC saw them all disappear. This represented an unparalleled long term opportunity for the big Australian banks.

    They have blown it. There is no question that their basic argument – that their interest costs are rising faster than the Reserve Bank interest rate rises – was correct. But you could not sell that argument when bank profits were skyrocketing partly as a result of abnormally low bad debts.

    Banks had to be patient and not force the Gillard government into taking precipitous action. But bank CEOs are under the spell of the short term profit thinking induced by Australian institutions and snubbed their nose at all political parties.

    So Wayne Swan has not only given the credit unions, building societies and regional banks the opportunity to gather deposits offering magnificent security via government guarantee, he has made it easy for customers to shift their loans away from banks so lessening bank customer “loyalty”.

    Worse still he has Bernie Fraser devising a way to make it easy to switch deposits between banks. If that happens then banking will be very portable indeed. Big banks will have to invest in their customers which will be very costly and will certainly reduce profits.

    Wayne Swan has thrown a carrot to the banks. He is taking steps to have more of our superannuation money put into bank deposits to lessen Australian bank dependence on foreign borrowing. But that comes later.

    A great many scribes are saying Swan has not done much. Don’t you believe it. This is fundamental change brought on by banks that did not think longer term and lost the art of communication with the market place. Accordingly they lost the chance to cement their current status.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Swan-will-make-banks-suffer-pd20101212-C388T?OpenDocument&src=sph

  35. [siad assange did not necessarily break anylaws by publishing as he had taken cables

    should read

    [siad assange did not necessarily break anylaws by publishing as he had NOT taken cables]

  36. lizzie

    I have not been online last few nights, but I have read the posts this morning. I agree with you that some of the arguments being put on here are quite laughable. To be honest, I have a good giggle over them. I wonder what possesses them. Must be the night air!

  37. dave

    the swan interview on the radio was good from swan

    clear simple language and the callers Q’s were batted with ease

    Swan gets better and better with time it seems

  38. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    blue_green,

    Exit fees were a lazy (and profitable) way of keeping customers over the longer term. Now the big banks will have to develop products which are designed in such a way as to be financially attractive for the customer to want to stay, This change will evolve slowly.]

    Its actually a problem for a range of services- the ability to shift providers. Particularly ISPs and mobile phone co.

    It could becomeanother plank in the governments agenda.

  39. SK

    My daughter is interested in going to Uni to pursue a degree in the engineering field. Not sure which at this stage. She is interested in medical, but also robotic engineering. She has already stated her preference for unis, but of course, it is then dependent on her score.

  41. Dave,

    Wow, thanks for the Gottleib post. He is spot on in my view. This is going to cost banks dearly over the longer term on the profit front and it will come down to product offerings to differentiate themselves from others in the market place.

  43. victoria,

    Robotic engineering is one it ventured into for a bit as part of some research into artificial intelligence programming. It is an exciting field.

  44. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    SK

    My daughter is interested in going to Uni to pursue a degree in the engineering field. Not sure which at this stage. She is interested in medical, but also robotic engineering. She has already stated her preference for unis, but of course, it is then dependent on her score.]

    Most of the vic Unis are pretty good at this.

    RMIT will work them very hard and is good; Monash will be more theoretical (which may or may not be a good thing depdnign on your daughters interest) but has a much much better campus life. Don’t know about Melbourne.

  45. Gus,

    From what I have seen of Swan he does better with hard facts and details. When it comes to the more emotive stuff, he looks like he is out of his comfort zone.

  46. victoria

    Your sentence “my daughter is interested in robotic engineering” absolutely thrilled me, just because such options are now a possibility for women. Hope she succeeds in all she wants to do.

  49. I like the irony of Assange getting a laptop from Rudd but Australia’s school children are still waiting for theirs!

    That is an opposition media release waiting to happen.

    There would be a sucker punch delivered by Rudd I reckon, gives him the oppotunity to say he is helping out an Aussie sitting in a jail, with no charge against him, and the whole world trying to assail him….then refer to there efforts in abandoning Hicks.

    Would work well, and Rudd would be glad for the chance to keep up the battle that seems to be going on within the party, unless Swans change of tune today is a white flag from Gillard.

  50. TP @ 2498:

    [ “I think everyone in the Left of the party, the Right of the party and the Australian public would expect that Julian Assange would face the law, as any other Australian citizen would face the law.”

    ]

    [ Plibersek has herself committed an actionable offence here and also prejudice Assange’s case in Sweden and elsewhere by implying he has committed a crime (he has to face the law) ]

    Nonsense, Thomas! That an Australian citizen is subject to the laws of Australia is, surely, a given. Plibersek says merely that Assange would be required to answer any charges arising from Wikileaks’ behaviour; she says nothing about his guilt or innocence, and it is your paranoia and ALP-phobia that lead you to read any implication into her words.

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