Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. spaceK

    we lost the trio up at pt stephens on a bushwalk

    me and the missu went the low road, the rugrats went the high road

    they forget to turn left at the junction, I literally ran the 4 min mile to find em

    the worst time of my life


  2. [Headlines tomorrow?! or just something to gloss over. GWV deserves 3 cheers for keeping us posted with the polls results.]

    The Oz will report it … It’s the ABC which will probably pretent it doesn’t exist. 😐

  3. Dio – no matter what the age, that feeling never stops. Just ask your Mum.

    Adelaide – the City of Sin and Churches with a pub on every corner but the best laid out in Oz and absolutely beautiful in the spring.

  4. [Statistically our kids are safer than they ever were. Yet I’m sure us parents are more worried about something bad happening to our kids than parents ever have been. I don’t know why.]
    Just be careful about how much you worry otherwise Aussie kids will end up like the poor blighters in the USA, under house arrest until they are twenty. We are already heading that way.

    Very soon we will be tearing up playgrounds because of insurance and the police will be arresting parents who let their 14yr olds walk 2 streets to school alone.

    I have been following this blog for a while. Very soon the USA will become a nation of infant-alised adults. (soon???)

  5. My mum gives my little brother far freer range than I feel safe or comfortable with. I joke with her about my fear of the Undertoad, but I always defer to her judgment of what is an appropriate degree of freedom for a child that, even in this messed up world, still ultimately needs to learn to become a man one day

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