Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  4. I didn’t see QT today, but from reading earlier comments it would seem Harry was tougher today than in the past. Time will tell tomorrow and the remainder of the week, but perhaps this is another win for PBers who wrote to him advising he get tougher with the rabble?

  5. [latikambourke | 39 seconds ago
    I think @KenWyattMP’s mo is impairing his vision just quietly.]
    Has anything in particular prompted this apparent despair about Ken Wyatt? Comments here, and now on twitter!

  12. drake

    I have a shelf on SK books, 31 actually.

    The Kuklinski book has been criticised as being very self-serving and grossly exaggerated. I read one of Carlo’s books on Richard Ramirez (the Night Stalker) which was very good.

  14. BH
    I agree with Grog.
    [Whenever any mention of benefits flowing from the NBN, it must be explained clearly in small, memorable, but non-focussed grouped-sounding words why the NBN will do it, and why Turnbull’s vision of a wireless glory land won’t.

    Now that’s the easy part of the argument – the laws of physics are very helpful here.

    But the economics? Ain’t got nowt to do with kids and their desks doing book learning over the internet.

    It all might sound wonderful; it all might sound like a great idea for education – but what’s the cost? And why are we paying it? And why shouldn’t we pay a bit less and still get much the same?

    The last question is really the only main bit of the economic argument tied up with the technical aspect – it needs to be hammered: will Turnbull be able to deliver essentially the same to everyone as would the NBN? If not, tell us clearly, brutally, and repeatedly why not.]

  15. For those who believe that there needs to be more competition in the banking sector, I think Swan is on the right track with possible plans for a fifth pillar.

    With entities such as AMP takover of AXA, Suncorp, Bendigo Adelaide, and Bank of Q as possible mergers, there certainly are enough players for a fifth pillar, which would be necessary for real competition, to be formed.

    Nobody knows what Hockey is talking about. Like Abbott at Brookvale Oval, Hockey should be taken round the back of North Sydney Oval for proper treatment.

  17. I thought I would post a recent example of horrific overuse of rhetorical flourishes. It is a complete trainwreck. This the worst case of rheotorical overexuberance I think I have read in recent times.

    I can’t see the point of this other than to bignote yourself amongst your colleagues. The allusion that Attenborough is anti-Labor is repugnant. He should be made to apologise.

    [Labor – dying of gang-Green?
    SENATOR THE HON BRETT MASON SHADOW MINISTER FOR UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH | 22/11/10
    The famous British film maker, Sir David Attenborough, is now in his ninth decade and still going strong. The veteran creator of such classic BBC nature documentaries as “Life on Earth” and “The Living Planet” is currently working on another series, “First Life”, which, according to reports, “will tell the story of the origins of life by examining ancient fossils and modern descendents of primitive species”. I’m not sure if “First Life” will have a look at the evolution – or, rather, the devolution – of the Australian Labor Party as it comes full circle from primitive species under Chris Watson to living fossils under Julia Gillard. But I know that Sir David would have a field day looking through his camera lens at the bizarre new ecosystem that has sprung to life in Australian politics over the past few months.]

    Don’t bother to read the rest. It actually gets worse.

    http://www.liberal.org.au/Latest-News/Blog/2010/11/Senator-Mason-blog.aspx?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  18. [drake

    I have a shelf on SK books, 31 actually.]

    You worry me Dio…

    By the way, I think you’re probably right to suggest the young Milat was likely to emulate his dreaded relative. I get the impression he looks up to Ivan…

  20. A few people commented on the link I have under my pseudonym. It is to EcoAmerica- the only environmental communications focussed NGO that I know of.

    Their ongoing surevy series on the environmental (and climate) values of americans is incredibly enlightening.

  22. [it must be explained clearly in small, memorable, but non-focussed grouped-sounding words why the NBN will do it, and why Turnbull’s vision of a wireless glory land won’t. ]

    Dee – yes, Grog and Poss have more idea of how to sell it than Labor did today. Grog’s point is well made that the questions to various Ministers today about the benefits were a bit erroneous. We know the benefits already.

    It’s a shame that the ACCC decision comes after Parliament rises. Has Xenophon said anything more in the Senate this evening. I’m on slow time so it takes too long to open the links to Parliament House.

  24. [drakePosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 10:09 pm | Permalinkdrake
    I live in Adelaide. It’s ingrained here.

    Lock the doors and stay safe Dio…
    ]

    I’d be more worried about being alone with dio -considering what “tools and skills” he posses. 🙂

  26. drake

    I am the same age as the victims of the Family murders, which happened in my formative years. I was also friends with the brother of one of the Truro murder victims at a similar time.

    I still hate it when I can’t see my kids when we’re in a supermarket.

  27. Hello there.

    Just wanted to speak on Ken Wyatt’s behest.

    Did you hear and or read of his amazing life of endeavour?

    A most worthy citizen and warrior. I don’t quite know what you are arguing about. I do know that Mr Wyatt was handily placed in full view, as a bit of a set piece on the almost front bench. If you are arguing that he has found himself a pawn of sorts, I reckon you have got it right.

    It does not mean that he is compromised.

  28. [just thought he would speak out when needed]

    Gus: I know what you mean, but he’s in a political party led by an ideologue. He’s a newbie to boot, which would probably make him more reluctant to speak out, esp in his first parliamentary sittings.

    Most of all I’m disappointed in Greg Hunt. Not only has he sold out his formal training by rejecting a pricing mechanism he knows to be legitimate, but he has danced on the graves of four dead Australians in his quest for political glory.

  34. Dio,

    Forgive the suspicions of my comrades (though they do make some very valid points)

    Seriously though, I worry about my kids 24/7. I know how you feel.

  35. More on Newspoll

    [
    The Prime Minister’s personal support has also lifted and Ms Gillard now leads Tony Abbott as the preferred prime minister by 54 to 31 per cent. In the last survey Ms Gillard’s lead over Mr Abbott was 49 to 34 per cent.

    But the Newspoll survey also shows strong voter support for the Coalition’s demands for a cost-benefit analysis of the $43 billion National Broadband Network.

    Only 23 per cent of voters believe the government should go ahead with the NBN without meeting the Coalition demands for a full costing of the venture.

    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-and-labor-improve-standing-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1225958834857

  36. [GhostWhoVotes #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+4) LNP 48 (-4) #auspol ]

    Wow … That’s unexpected.

    It’s very different from the Nielsen results ?

  38. I wonder how the Oz will ride this newspoll out. I wonder what rationale they will provide for the change. Perhaps JGs foreign policy stance- they seemed to like when she became hawkish. Oh well, over to you Shanahan.

    Night all.

  39. [But the Newspoll survey also shows strong voter support for the Coalition’s demands for a cost-benefit analysis of the $43 billion National Broadband Network.
    Only 23 per cent of voters believe the government should go ahead with the NBN without meeting the Coalition demands for a full costing of the venture.
    ]

    Their ABC will highlight that part endlessly

  41. Gus:

    I’ll be waiting to see what Wyatt says in relation to Tone’s Wild Rivers bill.

    Sorry, have been out of the loop for most of today, so am hopelessly out of touch with events today.

  42. Dio,

    I lost one of my sons at Movieworld for 20 minutes. I swear my heart stopped beating for the entire 20 minutes. I know how you feel.

  43. [Julia Gillard is going into the final week of Parliament for 2010 with a bounce in her personal standing, according to the latest Newspoll.

    Labor has also regained its lead over the Coalition for the first time since the election.]

    Writing these words must have SO painful for Shanahan 😆

  44. [
    Only 23 per cent of voters believe the government should go ahead with the NBN without meeting the Coalition demands for a full costing of the venture.
    ]

    Me thinks Shanahan the Elder may use the result prominently tomorrow

  49. [Newspoll ALP 52 LNP 48 from GhostWhoVotes]

    Headlines tomorrow?! or just something to gloss over. GWV deserves 3 cheers for keeping us posted with the polls results.

  50. drake

    Statistically our kids are safer than they ever were. Yet I’m sure us parents are more worried about something bad happening to our kids than parents ever have been.

    I don’t know why. Perhaps it’s because in the past so many kids died as infants and now we expect everything to go well.

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