GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.
UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.
UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.
Diog, stop peddling unfounded rumour 😥
Dee,
Your thoughts are mine but the universe is the universe: it takes ages.
Or a Tampa. I wrote an e-mail to the Norwegians expressing my sincere apologies for us, and disgust at the actions of the very few of Australians who were in the power to perform that particularly dastardly act.
Nothing changed then, nothing will now.
Senate is sitting from 9 tomorrow; Reps from 10.
This is good news. It looks like the Pope/Church is softening its stance on condoms to prevent AIDS.
[After the Pope first mentions that the use of condoms could be justified in certain limited cases, such as by prostitutes, Seewald asks: “Are you saying, then, that the Catholic Church is actually not opposed in principle to the use of condoms?”
The pope answers: “She of course does not regard it as a real or moral solution, but, in this or that case, there can be nonetheless, in the intention of reducing the risk of infection, a first step in a movement toward a different way, a more human way, of living sexuality.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/21/3072159.htm
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 9:30 pm | Permalink
Nielsen Poll (Federal)
Two Party Preferred: Labor 49]
I did my bit for the party, answered all questions in the positive for Labor. Interesting first eligibility question was, are you aged between 21 and 39?
I asked if no, what next? The pollster said..only interviewing that age range.
I add that for what its worth.
Diogenes: is the RC condoning homosexual practices? If so, where’s “the boundary”?
[DavidPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 9:52 pm | PermalinkGhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 9:30 pm | Permalink
Nielsen Poll (Federal)
Two Party Preferred: Labor 49
I did my bit for the party, answered all questions in the positive for Labor. Interesting first eligibility question was, are you aged between 21 and 39?
I asked if no, what next? The pollster said..only interviewing that age range.
I add that for what its worth.
]
Hmm, wonder if the result reflects those who got married and started families in the last couple of years of the Howard Govt and reaped the benefits of the Baby Bonus and other forms of middle class welfare ??
Diogenes, bennie also said the church would not approve of condoms if the use of, prohibits the making of life…frankly he doesn’t know what he is talking about, mea culpa.
David,
Their methodology is crap: your are in the sample, in toto, or you are not. Sample methodology basics. It’s a personal opinion. Poss supports their approach: he is Yoda, I’m not.
I find it somewhat perverted that any religious leader would tell anyone what to do in their private intimate acts. The congregations should vote with their wallets, nothing in the collection plates until this dangerous nonsense is no longer peddled by the high and mighty, a ‘giving’ strike on behalf of the poor and misguided who will die because of these edicts.
My contention is that if a sampler rejects say 1000 repondents because they do not “fit the criteria” the criteria may be wrong.
vp I could have said I was 25yrs and the questions would have been asked, of course their methodology is crap. I was very aware of that and said to the lady asking the questions…how scientific is this? She replied ..”I am only employed to ask the questions written down in front of me. I do not know anything about how the questions are set.”
At least I was happy I answered the questions honestly.
PtMD,
That is what religious leaders do: infect their listeners and, thereby, the offspring of the listeners with those views.
It has worked for millenia.
vp
[
Diogenes: is the RC condoning homosexual practices? If so, where’s “the boundary”?]
I don’t think it’s “condoning” the actual sexual act, whatever it is, but it is saying that using a condom isn’t adding to the sin.
[Interesting first eligibility question was, are you aged between 21 and 39?
I asked if no, what next? The pollster said..only interviewing that age range.
I add that for what its worth.]
They probably would have already interviewed enough people in the other age ranges & might have been short of enough sample size for 21-39
David,
I would have too. Like you, I would have “significant” converse with the interviewer.
Diogenes,
Omission v commission?
If that guy is not going to get his surfing lesson then the Liebral Party should refund the money to GetUp, especially since it was raised by donations, one of which was mine, if I remember correctly.
So Rabbott, put up or hand it over! Are you a man of your word?
(I suppose it depends on which word.)
vik @ 16
My stats are a bit rusty but surely that would throw into question their whole sampling methodology if it was not throwing up a sufficiently random sample?
Isn’t there the possibility that in trying to correct for one deficiency (low representation of 21-39) they my introduce others?
Puff regretfully, those who are brought up living in awe of priests, bishops and other men who wear colored clothing, who are told they must get on their knees in a small box and tell a guy hidden by a grill, their personal failings. which we all have, then go away saying a few hail marys and do exactly the same, are the multitudes in the 3rd world countries, like the Phlilippines 90 million souls and 80% catholic, who continue to copulate unprotected because the catholic church says it is a sin to wear a rubber. Millions live in poverty, there is murder, robbery, rape it is rife because they are so poor they have to get money anyway whereever it is available BUT every Sunday these same people front up to Mass because the church says if you do not you are doomed…work it out, work out the vatican, work out the role of the pope…it is a disgrace.As a catholic who doesn’t accept most of the fairy tales shoved down my throat as kid, the catholic church is a joke.
I presume this means the Oppo will simply just go on doing the wrecker number/ repugs untied/the msm haven’t got a clue or are malevolent? Terrific news really. And, William, am I seeing a change of POV from you about the ABC. Are you now seeing a somewhat different and definitely not “balanced” broadcaster?
BTW, this is really terrible. See The Fourth Estate and The Political Sword for some nifty analysis.
David @ 21
I classify you as a ‘Recovered Catholic’.
My wife is a ‘Recovering Catholic’ and is making good progress.
It is just bizarre that in the 21st Century these organisations are regarded as anything more than anachronistic curiosities.
But it is even worse. The gullible fall for all sorts of fundamentalist nutters that make the Catholic hierarchy look moderate and sensible by comparison.
Then there are the truly wacky cults like Scientology…
It makes one despair.
There have been the occasional mentions of the US food stamps programme…here is a little video (without a numeric metric until the end unfortunately, but I guess the message is clear);
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/time-lapse-video-food-stamp-participation-rates-during-new-normal
[My stats are a bit rusty but surely that would throw into question their whole sampling methodology if it was not throwing up a sufficiently random sample?
Isn’t there the possibility that in trying to correct for one deficiency (low representation of 21-39) they my introduce others?]
If there is, it’s not particular to Nielsen. Pollsters routinely have a quota of different demographics they have to meet, and it’s invariably younger people who are the hardest to get hold of.
I understand the Nielsen Primary Votes are ALP 35 (+1) LNP 43 (0) GRN 13 (-1).
And while on things economic, there is our friend from a while back, the Baltic Dry Index. After a good recovery from the mid year lows, the index is off nearly 30% in the last 2 months…and it is priced in USD, so this must be just about the only USD index which is down.
Clearly, the world did not end in July; however, could be an interesting indicator especially of China imports
BDI picture:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
[GhostWhoVotesPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 10:38 pm | PermalinkI understand the Nielsen Primary Votes are ALP 35 (+1) LNP 43 (0) GRN 13 (-1).
]
I assume “Others” are bleeding towards the Libs ? 🙂
From GhostWhoVotes
[
GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Federal: Support for Gay Marriage: Approve 57 Disapprove 37 #auspol #vicvotes
]
[madcyrilPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 10:46 pm | PermalinkFrom GhostWhoVotes
GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Federal: Support for Gay Marriage: Approve 57 Disapprove 37 #auspol #vicvotes
]
And the undecideds :
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes @
@KJBar 6% Don’t Know. #Nielsen #auspol #vicvotes
4 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]
[GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Federal: Support for Gay Marriage: Approve 57 Disapprove 37 #auspol #vicvotes ]
Excellent! …
Miranda Devine was complaining in today’s Sunday Tele that the methodology of the earlier Galaxy poll was flawed, because of the question was biased.
The Nielsen poll should be enough to re-confirm that there is broad community support for same-sex marriage.
Vic everyone I have asked, without exception have agreed with same sex marriage, that includes blue collar workers, those who are the so called salt of the earth. Time for Julia to grab the ball, so to speak, and run with it. It’s a winner.
[vikPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 10:54 pm | PermalinkGhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Federal: Support for Gay Marriage: Approve 57 Disapprove 37 #auspol #vicvotes
Excellent! …
Miranda Devine was complaining in today’s Sunday Tele that the methodology of the earlier Galaxy poll was flawed, because of the question was biased.
The Nielsen poll should be enough to re-confirm that there is broad community support for same-sex marriage.
33 DavidPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 10:59 pm | PermalinkVic everyone I have asked, without exception have agreed with same sex marriage, that includes blue collar workers, those who are the so called salt of the earth. Time for Julia to grab the ball, so to speak, and run with it. It’s a winner.
]
That may be so – but like London to a brick – as soon as Julia annunces such a move – the Church, the Libs and their various hangers on will mount the mother of all scare campaigns and they will ensure that it will fail.
It’s a brave Govt who prevail over that.
frank
totally agree
Immigration Philosophy From The Super Butcher:
Immigration.
Our current population in Australia is approximately 22 million people. Between you and me, I don’t care if we bring in another three million, eight million or even 10 million people over the next 10-20 years. I am not opposed to immigration. We have a fantastic country with endless opportunities and Australia has the space and the resources for expansion (if you go to many rural towns today we probably already have the infrastructure to cater for one million people because so many have moved to the coast). However, I feel the most important thing we need to do is bring people in who assimilate and contribute into our communities, people who are prepared to learn English (and speak it), but most of all people who want to be Australians!! I don’t want people to move here and expect Australia to change our ways, or our religion and our culture because they find parts of it offensive.
I read a number of very interesting articles recently and one of them said that Australia has the highest % Immigrants than any other country in the world. This is staggering considering our society is one of the most “peaceful” in the world. I reckon our country is only as diverse and peaceful as it is today because of the influx of the ‘2 Bob Poms’, the Italians, the Greeks, the Dutch, Irish and Scottish and other countries I haven’t mentioned who immigrated here in the 1950’s and 60’s, all looking for a better life for their families. In doing so, they have broadened the wealth and diversity and certainly enhanced the offerings we have today. They left behind any previous grievances and became Australian. Then the integration in the 80’s with our Asian neighbours brought an even more diverse cultural expression and hard working ethic. The early 90’s catch cry was all about multiculturalism and Australia was encouraged to follow the rest of the world, but the articles I am now reading suggest that many c! ountries have made some serious mistakes. I read the misgivings of the German chancellor and the problems of integration they have in their country and they are not alone, with France, Netherlands, Denmark and even England all having serious issues. The two most recent articles I read that really surprised me was that in the city of Bradford (England) 90% of the population do not use English as their first language. No one can convince me that this is not a recipe for disaster both now and in the future. The other interesting article in the Gold Coast Bulletin last weekend was that the most popular boys name in England for 2010 is Mohamed. Very interesting!
My personal view is that 90% of the reason the World has gone to War is for two reasons.
1. Religion and
2. Oil.
I don’t have an answer for Oil, but we need to look at the problems affecting peace in a good majority of the Countries today and that is Religion. Australia is a “Christian” based nation and you can either believe in God or you don’t. But generally that does not result in war. What does guarantee “qar” and social disharmony is two religions that are “fundamentally” opposed because at some stage people do not believe they are constrained by the laws of the land if they are obeying the law of their “God”. In a vey simplistic view – if we want to maintain the current peaceful living environment that we have in Australia we need to look at the mistakes other countries have made because a few of those countries I have mentioned are starting to have some serious problems.
The reason I have raised Immigration today is because this week we have had a situation where a South African employee of ours, who has worked for us over the last 12 months, has been deported with his wife and two year old daughter back to South Africa after failing an English test. This gentleman spent his life savings (AUS $15,000 in immigration fees which is about $100,000 in South African rand) last year to bring his wife and child out to Australia. Unfortunately his employment contract in Toowoomba fell through when he first arrived and it was through our employment 12 months ago that he was able to stay. As part of the application process he was required to take an English test and, with a mild case of dyslexia, recently failed. We hope that over the next three weeks he will be back with us under a new visa because the money he has saved over the past 12 months has now been spent (plus some) to pay for his airfares back to South Africa, as well as the costs to re-apply to come back out here, plus he still has the continual costs of his rent etc/etc while he is out of the country.
Now my personal opinion is, GREAT!! It looks as though we have a very strict immigration system that will not tolerate some basic requirements that I think our “New” Australians should have. On the other hand, the stress that this man and his wife have had to endure over the last 12 months to come to Australia must have been terrible. So we are doing everything we can to help. When it comes to boat people, I am sorry but my view is, we have a front door that is open (that if need be could possibly be opened wider to let more people through). But the back door needs to be closed and locked because if we don’t, the flood will keep wanting to come through it.
Kidette,
Any relation to pauline hanson?
Puff,
All I can say is this used to be my butcher.
[That may be so – but like London to a brick – as soon as Julia annunces such a move – the Church, the Libs and their various hangers on will mount the mother of all scare campaigns and they will ensure that it will fail.]
But she, and the Labor party, don’t have to “support” same-sex marriage! … All she has to do is allow MP’s a conscience vote.
There’s no way the churches can mount a credible scare campaign against the mere act of allowing parliamentarians a free vote.
Once the free vote is allowed, the churches can then go ahead & lobby individual MP’s to vote a certain way & that’s fair enough.
Perhaps the bill will not pass because there won’t be enough small-l liberals in the Liberal Party to offset the reactionary minority in the Labor Party … but once the free-vote precedent is established, then further attempts can be made in the future until the measure is able to clear Parliament.
Used to be, ahhh, glad to here that.
I mosquito just flew in front of my screen. It was big enough to go surfing on a long board!
s/b ‘hear’, was distracted by A380 mozzie.
#OhMike filling in for Jim Ball omn 2GB – only 3 and a 1/2 hours
http://www.2gb.com/listenlive/index.php
Is anyone going to call him?
[39 vikPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 11:59 pm | PermalinkThat may be so – but like London to a brick – as soon as Julia annunces such a move – the Church, the Libs and their various hangers on will mount the mother of all scare campaigns and they will ensure that it will fail.
But she, and the Labor party, don’t have to “support” same-sex marriage! … All she has to do is allow MP’s a conscience vote.
There’s no way the churches can mount a credible scare campaign against the mere act of allowing parliamentarians a free vote.
Once the free vote is allowed, the churches can then go ahead & lobby individual MP’s to vote a certain way & that’s fair enough.
Perhaps the bill will not pass because there won’t be enough small-l liberals in the Liberal Party to offset the reactionary minority in the Labor Party … but once the free-vote precedent is established, then further attempts can be made in the future until the measure is able to clear Parliament.
]
You wanna bet – they WILL make their re-election a living nightmare.
Live in La La land – The real politivcal world will tell you otherwise
David,
[everyone I have asked, without exception have agreed with same sex marriage]
The Lord moves in mysterious circles. We move in such smaller ones; pollsters, in even smaller ones. May I substitute a “has agreed”?. Muenas noches a todos.
Was there much in the way of visuals of Julia at the NATO conference? I saw some brief ones of Julia at Lisbon on the ABC. She was also shown there with Stephen Smith, on BBC footage. Was there any headlines in the msm like, “Australia’s first female PM at critical NATO conference.”
All the problems in the world and we are worrying about who can marry whom? The sooner the Marriage Act is changed and we move on, the better. I don’t care if some-one marries their garden gnome, as long as the gnome is a consenting adult.
Not even 12am in SA and you all are in bed?
48
If SA was on its proper time zone then it would not yet be 11:30pm!
GMT+9+DST
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/turnbull-holds-10m-network-conflict-20101121-182mp.html
Seem there is a chance that the NBN / Telstra legislation will get through this week after all. 🙂
[Also yesterday, the Greens revealed they had secured a deal from the government to stop the automatic privatisation of the network five years after its completion.
Under the original plan, the network, once rolled out in eight years, was to have been privatised after five years.
Smaller carriers argued this would just create a new private monopoly player in the industry. The Greens senator Scott Ludlam said the government had agreed to amendments that meant any privatisation must first satisfy a public interest test. This would involve a parliamentary committee ”drawing substantially on a study by the Productivity Commission”.
If a decision was then made to sell, it would have to be ratified by Parliament.
Senator Ludlam said the Greens would now pass the legislation for the structural separation of Telstra, which means the government now needs either the Coalition, or both senators Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding.]
If the Greens are now onside then hopefully X and Fielding will go along. I think Fielding was already going to vote for it??
Also, have to say that i think its a good outcome policy wise. Was never happy with the plan to sell the NBN off as soon as it was built and am in favor of it remaining in Govt hands.