Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

This morning’s Herald-Sun featured a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents surveying state voting intention in Victoria, which paints a different picture to the 55-45 Labor lead indicated by the Newspoll survey of late August. Galaxy has Labor’s two-party lead at just 51-49, although this seems too narrow given the primary votes: 38 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for the Coalition and 14 per cent for the Greens, which would normally give Labor a lead of at least 52-48 (UPDATE: Whoops – Carlton Crew in comments notes I have overlooked the 4 per cent for the Nationals, which brings the Coalition up to 43 per cent and makes the two-party figure entirely credible). John Brumby records a satisfaction rating of 48 per cent against 46 per cent dissatisfied, with Ted Baillieu recording 41 per cent and 44 per cent.

Couple of other things:

David Rood of The Age reports Bronwyn Halfpenny, Trades Hall official and daughter of union legend John Halfpenny, is likely to win Labor preselection for ultra-safe (margin 31.1 per cent) Thomastown, whose incumbent Peter Batchelor announced yesterday he would not contest the election. In the somewhat less safe seat of Bendigo West (margin 10.6 per cent), where another minister in Bob Cameron also announced his intention to retire yesterday, the nod is expected to go to Cameron’s electorate officer Maree Edwards. VexNews reports that the cross-factional stability agreement ensures the outgoing Left faction incumbents will be replaced by members of their own faction. Edwards is said to benefit from the support of Bendigo East MP Jacinta Allan, but may face resistance from federal Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons, who favours his campaign director Bill Murray.

Hannah Donnellan of the Heidelberg Leader reports “sports science consultant” and personal trainer Carl Ziebell has been endorsed as Liberal candidate for Ivanhoe. There were earlier suggestions the endorsement might go to Jenny Mulholland, a high-profile Banyule councillor and former mayor who ran as an independent in 2006. Ivanhoe was vacated by the resignation of sitting Labor member Craig Langdon in late August, which appeared to be a botched attempt to embarrass the government by initiating a by-election which will not in fact transpire. Langdon had been defeated for preselection last year by Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor and chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

114 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Lets start a new page!
    Posted Monday, October 18, 2010 at 10:55 pm | Permalink
    Surely there should be a Vic Newspoll due,
    If their form is showing, I say they have one that is bad for the coalition, good for the Grens with a ttp of about 52-53 to Brumby,
    6 weeks to go , I presume they will put one out about now?
    Any info out there anyone?

  2. Important Independent news!

    Cleary running in Brunswick.

    Cr Cummimg running in Footscray (10% 2002, 14% 2006).

    Two of the most psephologically interesting contests of the election.

  3. Is Cleary definitely running? The most recent article I can find is this one, where he’s still thinking about it depending on if he gets $$ from the ETU. That union are also giving some campaign funds to Stephen Jolly in Richmond, so it’s plausible. Jolly’s a socialist who got 6% at the 2006 election (including close to 20% at one booth, where he came second), and about 30% in his council ward in the City of Yarra (he won under first past the post). He’ll be another one to watch, by the way.

    Footscray will be fascinating. In 2006, Cumming’s preferences seem to have gone to Labor over the Libs at about the same rate as the Greens, so she’s certainly on the left. (I know nothing more about her.) She only got a couple of points less than the Liberal, so it’s far from certain the Liberals even came second in a proper 2cp count (the VEC don’t bother to do that if the winner gets over 50%). I did some playing with the figures a few days ago, assuming 55% of Green / SA preferences and 80% of Lib / FF preferences go to Cumming (similar to Andrew Wilkie in Denison), and got a ALP vs Cumming margin of 11-12%. If the Green preferences went more heavily to Cumming, it’d be less… a similar margin to Northcote. I don’t think Labor will lose Footscray, but between Cumming and Janet Rice (Greens, former Maribyrnong mayor), their margin certainly won’t be anything like the current 25%.

  4. 105

    Cleary is sending out a fund me message (whether he intends to or not) with that message. It even has an achievable funding target.

    I don`t think he can win though.

  5. Re Chris Curtis’s comments.
    Thanks Chris for your information on the dissolvement of the DLP in 1978. I accept yr comments on that totally. I do agree with most of your comments.
    Re Peter Kavanaghs vote re aborigional land rights, i am appaled at his vote and need an explanation for it.
    Re the party preferencinc of ON and CEC, i agree with their preferencing. There is no way that their preferences were ever going to flow to ON or CEC, as they always get less votes than DLP. They could have not preferenced them as a matter of principle, and this would have had the effect of John Madigan not being elected to the senate.
    I do believe that the current DLP has the same regard for human rights as the former DLP. I strongly believe there is a need for the DLP in the Australian Parliment, more than ever. I will continue to work for it as i have for the DLP since 1955.
    I was not a member of the old DLP, or the new DLP, but i handed out how to vote cards since 1955 for the DLP and will continue to do so.
    I consider one of our greatest Australians to be Frank McManus, whom I met once.
    I believe Frank McManus would be a supporter of the DLP now.

  6. 108

    “There is no way our preferences will flow to” sound like famous last words to me. plenty of ALP voters would have thought that about the DLP in Western Victoria in 2006.

  7. Tom at 106: ahh, gotcha. He did come first though. I must’ve had him mixed up with another socialist, Sam Wainwright, who got elected to Hilton ward in the City of Fremantle on about that vote (WA has first past the post for local government; it’s also officially non-partisan).

    By a bit of googling of the candidates, that’s some impressive numbers for the left in Langridge Ward…

    Green: 36.17% (2 candidates)
    Socialist: 29.18%
    ALP: 28.53% (3 candidates)
    Lib: 6.13%

    The token Lib, by the way, is their 2010 candidate in Richmond. He’d have to get more than 6% this time.

  8. [“There is no way our preferences will flow to”]
    … family first candidate Steven Fielding in the Senate (ALP strategists in 2004)

    I think Cleary can win like Wilkie – Labor, Liberal, and Green will probably preference him above each other, so if he is in the “last four” (if there are other minor candidates), and is ahead of any of the other three he will probably ride the waves of successive preference counts and win.

  9. 111

    Denison is bigger and more diverse than Brunswick. Denison is a large chunk of the local media area so candidates and electorate can get more media coverage. There is more animostity against the Greens from the Tasmanian Liberals than the Victorian Liberals and so the Greens are known to be able to get more preferences from the Libs in Victoria so have a higher perceived ability to win. The Greens have also been around longer in Tasmania.

    There has been a lot of gentrification in Wills in the last 14 years meaning there are more people who will put the Greens ahead of Cleary than there would have been had the Greens been a more widely considered option in 1996 in Wills.

  10. Tom – I agree Phil Cleary was a more “visible” community presence when he won the Federal seat. He also had his own network basically through Coburg Football Club people. But I still think he is a chance.

    Reading Antony’s always excellent analyses – looking at Seymour I then found this interesting piece at “The Weekly Times” on the demographic shifts, basically saying that an influx of likely Labor voters into Wallan makes this an even more likely Labor hold.

    It is interesting because it is an example of what Americans call the “Exurbs”, and I think this is part of the demographic story which enabled Labor to win that band of seats from Geelong to Seymour in 1999 and hold them since.

  11. Dave
    Posted Friday, October 15, 2010 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    I have no problem with the original DLP.

    If I am wrong about the split, it is because of what I was taught at uni, that it was primarily a split because of comunism and the abandonment of Catholic values.

    Its just a pity that when the DLP started up properly in the past 5yrs or so, that it isn’t actually the DLP, only what seems to me to be a group of dissidents and pretenders.

    The DLP of today are far closer to the DLP that existed from 1950’s to the Late 1970’s then say the National/Country Party, Liberals or the ALP of the same period. In fact some members (particularly in Victoria have maintained their membership since then)

    There is no doubt the the DLP have stood in every election since their inception and that information is easliy sourced.

    The States outside Victoria have certainly been reformed (with many members joining that in those states had continued as supporters) with many being members dateing back to that era. Younger members have joined and continued to do so. Support & youth groups and University clubs are also being re-formed and to suggest that they are a group of dissidents and pretenders is absolute nonsense.

    The Fact that a blacksmith has won a Senate position in Victoria, (with a strong campaign on manufacturing) would show clearly that the DLP today is far more of a labour party then the current crop of ALP economic rationalists that have sold this country down the drain.

    How many more Telstra’s and Q R’s has the country go left before falling into a heap of foriegn debt.

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