This morning’s Herald-Sun featured a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents surveying state voting intention in Victoria, which paints a different picture to the 55-45 Labor lead indicated by the Newspoll survey of late August. Galaxy has Labor’s two-party lead at just 51-49, although this seems too narrow given the primary votes: 38 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for the Coalition and 14 per cent for the Greens, which would normally give Labor a lead of at least 52-48 (UPDATE: Whoops Carlton Crew in comments notes I have overlooked the 4 per cent for the Nationals, which brings the Coalition up to 43 per cent and makes the two-party figure entirely credible). John Brumby records a satisfaction rating of 48 per cent against 46 per cent dissatisfied, with Ted Baillieu recording 41 per cent and 44 per cent.
Couple of other things:
David Rood of The Age reports Bronwyn Halfpenny, Trades Hall official and daughter of union legend John Halfpenny, is likely to win Labor preselection for ultra-safe (margin 31.1 per cent) Thomastown, whose incumbent Peter Batchelor announced yesterday he would not contest the election. In the somewhat less safe seat of Bendigo West (margin 10.6 per cent), where another minister in Bob Cameron also announced his intention to retire yesterday, the nod is expected to go to Cameron’s electorate officer Maree Edwards. VexNews reports that the cross-factional stability agreement ensures the outgoing Left faction incumbents will be replaced by members of their own faction. Edwards is said to benefit from the support of Bendigo East MP Jacinta Allan, but may face resistance from federal Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons, who favours his campaign director Bill Murray.
Hannah Donnellan of the Heidelberg Leader reports sports science consultant and personal trainer Carl Ziebell has been endorsed as Liberal candidate for Ivanhoe. There were earlier suggestions the endorsement might go to Jenny Mulholland, a high-profile Banyule councillor and former mayor who ran as an independent in 2006. Ivanhoe was vacated by the resignation of sitting Labor member Craig Langdon in late August, which appeared to be a botched attempt to embarrass the government by initiating a by-election which will not in fact transpire. Langdon had been defeated for preselection last year by Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor and chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike.