D-day plus 17 …

… and finally, the small matter of the result. The winner is Labor. Not a famous victory by any stretch of the imagination, but under the circumstances they’ll be happy with the four points. For my part, I have my doubts about members of parliament going against the obvious preference of their constituents in so fundamental a matter as government formation, barring the proverbial extraordinary and reprehensible standards. I’m not entirely sure that a bit of creative accounting from the Coalition clears the bar on this count. That said, I have no doubt – none – that conservatives tempted to echo these sentiments will find themselves constrained by their philosophy’s most eloquent champion, Edmund Burke, who famously told his constituents: “Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion”. (Burke’s speech has been given a fair run around the place in recent times, including by apparently learned people who would do well to read it through to the end.)

Besides, my difference of opinion with Windsor and Oakeshott is purely a matter of degree – there were respectable arguments that could have been mounted whichever way they jumped. Ultimately they deserve our gratitude for the patient and considered fashion with which they have navigated through their delicate position. Most particularly, they should be heartily congratulated for ignoring a fortnight’s worth of quacking and bleating from a section of the media that does not at heart believe in consensus, checks and balances or even particularly in democracy. Whatever uncertainties might lie ahead, one thing is sure: these voices will spend the coming months and/or years peddling distortions and hyperbole to create a sense of crisis about a situation which in reality has every chance of serving Australia well. Long may the independents continue to turn a deaf ear.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,892 comments on “D-day plus 17 …”

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  1. [ Did you hear Windsor clarify his remarks? Can you clarify what he said?
    ]

    I’ll guess it will be reported in the media. He said wtte….I’ve spoken to Swan. It was a misunderstanding. It was a misunderstanding on my part.

  5. A misunderstanding Mr Windsor? But its the cracks, the cracks in the new government? As per ABC radio headline lifted directly from Pyne.

    Really liked the way Swan said he ran into Katter this am, had a chat and said we’ll have a coffee later today. I am sure the coalition will extend the same courtesy to OW and Wilkie

  6. Andrew

    Katter has heaped praise on Swan during this whole process. Swan would harbor no ill will. Perhaps he understands Katter a lot better than we do. Well actually I don’t understand Katter at all.

  8. Has Bronwyn Bishop been sighted yet?

    She was criticised in tongue-in-cheek letters (actually published) in the Manly Daily (very influential local rag) during the election.

    Complaints that she had “lowered herself” by repeating Tony’s mantra in her ads – Stop the Boats.

    Letters said this was below her dignity to publish such nonsense in a silvertail electorate and such things should only be said to the west Sydney plebs.

  10. In Victoria in 1999 Labor had a majority of one vote and did not control the upper house and guess what it worked, and worked for three years.
    The Murdoch empire, the Coalition and the ABC can still not get over the fact that Labor is still in power.
    The Murdoch empire when it does not get its way will pick and pick until it does, the hate being losers.
    What will it be tomorrow another bunch of lieing headlines embellished as news.

  15. [not a chance, mate, not a chance. I’m Aussie through and through and in fact, by choice, gave up the US part of my dual citizenship while I’ve been living here in Perth]

    So the kids are now dinky-di Ozzies and probably playing Ozzie Rules – good on ya.

    [The truth is, the electorate always gets it right and this time is no exception.

    There was unhappiness with the performance of the Labor government but not enough of a national mood for change to want to turf them out and, equally, not enough confidence in the Coalition to want to install them as the government.

    It was left to the Independents to make the final call and, on balance, their decision reflected the wider community’s wish – just.]
    http://ozforums.com.au/forums/index.php/topic,7143.0.html

    We need to send this piece by Ari to Joe Hockey!

  16. Andrew Robb, should be the next leader of the Libs, he has personality, wit, charm and charisma.

    i think he is perfect for the job.
    ‘
    Admittedly has anyone ever seen this guy smile.

  20. [Oaks is a saggitarian- he is one of us like bob hawke, Kristena Kenealy, Tanya pliberserk. The truth seekers!]

    Doesn’t it depend on who Oakes gets the ‘truth’ from, Centaur009?

  24. If Robb were to win the Deputy leader of the Libs Turnbull would go ballistic. Surely, it would be a recognition that the trogs completely dominate the Libs. Secondly, Robb would have the right to choose his portfolio. Would Hockey acquiesce to losing the Shadow Treasury. Further Bishop and the rampant WAers won’t take it lying down.

    Lordy, the start of the Liberal disintegration is before us.

  25. This current whinging from Coalition frontbenchers that the Gillard Government is somehow ‘illegitimate’ reminds me of the profound shock the Coalition members went into in December 1972 after the election of the Whitlam Government. Their ‘born to rule’ mentality and an 23 unbroken years with their noses in the trough of power had bred such a feeling of entitlement in their ample and well upholstered bosums that they simply couldn’t and wouldn’t accept the will of the people, obstructing all legislation, forcing a Double Dissolution Election in 1974 (which was again won by the ALP) and even then moaning and whining that they hadn’t really lost the election only ‘failed to get enough votes.’

    Fortunately for our democracy, the parliamentary tactic of blocking, or deferring a vote on supply is not an option in 2010 as it was, unbeknownst to the electorate, in 1975, and we also do not have a weak and venal Governor General in office who would be capable of deceiving the PM and the nation on their cryptic intentions.

    Tony Abbott, however, gives every sign of being as vile and sneaky as Malcolm Fraser was in 1975, capable of resorting to any subterfuge or trickery to subvert the elected government of the day, but his supporting cast of Coalition drones and pinheads fails abysmally in comparison to the machiavellian Doug Anthony, Phil Lynch, Reg Withers, et al.

  26. [The more the opposition refuse to graciously accept the result and try to smear it, the more they justify the indies’ decision, and the more damage they do to their chances next time.]

    How long did it take Victorian Liberals to recover from their post-1999 Election “We was robbed cos Victorians woke up next morning wondering what they had done. They only wanted to give us a scare …”

    OOh, that’s right, It’s 2010 and Vics have still to forgive the Libs! BTW, QLDers still haven’t forgiven the Libs & Nats for 1998; or Sandgropers for 2002.

    Gives you heart, that, Just me!

  27. The Liberals complaining the Gillard Government is illegitimate is certainly ironic when juxtaposed against the fact that they are a pack of bastards.

  29. Q. Let’s see, why are the Tories in a Tizz? A. Because they realize they are at the threshold of a decade of political irrelevance. So near, and yet so far.

    (1) Offshore processing centre in place. There will still be boats but they will go to Timor.
    (2) Kenneally gone. O’Farrell will have had time to make some unpopular decisions.
    (3) Bligh gone. Langebroek, ditto.
    (4) Pink Batts and BER more than four years old.
    (5) Australia survives double dip recession.
    (6) That Epping railway on the way.
    (7) Wild Rivers Legislation compromise in place to allow for a balance between biodiv and Indigenous development.
    (8) Super improvements in place.
    (9) Small business has enjoyed its tax breaks.
    (10) Company tax down by 1.5%.
    (11) Gillard seen as a political genius for the way in which she has held the ramshackle vehicle together.
    BUT
    (1) A Great Big New Tax on Everything = a price on carbon.
    (2) Several new taxes out of Henry Tax Review?
    AND
    (1) If Gillard has any brains at all she will go the next National Labor Party Congress, or whatever it is called, and get agreement to a conscience vote on gay marriage and euthanasia, allow private members’ bills for both and declare the issues done and dusted well before the next election.
    (2) Abbott will have spent another three years of heing Inaction Man.
    (3) Abbott will have had time to focus on doing a backflip on Work Choices
    (4) His Party will have resiled from the bad and expensive PPL policy.
    (5) Various Coalition disgruntlments will have had time to surface.

  35. [Tony Abbott, however, gives every sign of being as vile and sneaky as Malcolm Fraser was in 1975]

    Big Ship, the lack of a comparative (I’d go for superlative) degree of “vile” & “sneaky” re Abbott is, IMO, a slur on Malcolm Fraser!

  38. [Big Ship, the lack of a comparative (I’d go for superlative) degree of “vile” & “sneaky” re Abbott is, IMO, a slur on Malcolm Fraser!
    ]

    Tony Abbott, however, gives every sign of being viler and sneakier than Malcolm Fraser was in 1975

  39. If you really wanted a prompt, nay, alacritous, response to your message to the editor of the OO, VP, you should have hinted that you had a video clip of Gillard and Swan doing unspeakable things with a cane toad.

  41. OPT

    No probs. English is endlessly elastic enough to meet all serious language needs:

    good, better, Gillard
    clever, cleverer, Gillard
    sneaky, more sneakier, Abbott
    vile, viler, Abbott

  43. BH, both kids had and still do, dual citizenship from birth. Whether or not they do anything with the US part of their equations, they will have to deal with on their own as adults 😉

    Boerwar, conscience votes on those contentious issues is a very good way to get them off of the active burners and I don’t reckon Abbott will last 3 years. Useby date on a Liberal leader isn’t 36 months 😀

  48. [sneaky, more sneakier,]

    Hate to be pedantic Boer, but it is either, ‘sneakier’, or ‘more sneaky’ — can’t have ‘more sneakier’ although with Abbott I’ll allow it.

  50. rua

    I doubt it.

    I am pretty sure that it will be well-built in certain regional centres but it will take close to three parliamentary terms to complete, I sort of recall someone saying, somewhere.

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