D-day plus 17 …

… and finally, the small matter of the result. The winner is Labor. Not a famous victory by any stretch of the imagination, but under the circumstances they’ll be happy with the four points. For my part, I have my doubts about members of parliament going against the obvious preference of their constituents in so fundamental a matter as government formation, barring the proverbial extraordinary and reprehensible standards. I’m not entirely sure that a bit of creative accounting from the Coalition clears the bar on this count. That said, I have no doubt – none – that conservatives tempted to echo these sentiments will find themselves constrained by their philosophy’s most eloquent champion, Edmund Burke, who famously told his constituents: “Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion”. (Burke’s speech has been given a fair run around the place in recent times, including by apparently learned people who would do well to read it through to the end.)

Besides, my difference of opinion with Windsor and Oakeshott is purely a matter of degree – there were respectable arguments that could have been mounted whichever way they jumped. Ultimately they deserve our gratitude for the patient and considered fashion with which they have navigated through their delicate position. Most particularly, they should be heartily congratulated for ignoring a fortnight’s worth of quacking and bleating from a section of the media that does not at heart believe in consensus, checks and balances or even particularly in democracy. Whatever uncertainties might lie ahead, one thing is sure: these voices will spend the coming months and/or years peddling distortions and hyperbole to create a sense of crisis about a situation which in reality has every chance of serving Australia well. Long may the independents continue to turn a deaf ear.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,892 comments on “D-day plus 17 …”

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  4. [and even then moaning and whining that they hadn’t really lost the election only ‘failed to get enough votes.’]

    Sounds like Rolls-Royce spin – their cars never breakdown, they merely fail to proceed.

  5. @2700

    “Abbott has tasted blood.”
    Tim Wilson says that the Broadband will be an opportunity for Oppn to demonstrate all the WASTE of the govt. again. Subtext – Labor can’t do anything right.

    [http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/expect-libs-to-go-in-for-the-kill-20100907-14zix.html]

  6. So Robb is after Joe’s job. He may as well, he did all the work during the election. He was basically at every news conference that involved talking about numbers and Joe and Tony deferred to him when the going got tough. He may as well get the Shadow Treasurer title if he’s going to do all the hard work 😀

  9. deewhytony

    mind you Bandt made it very clear prior to election that he would support Labor if there were to be a hung parliament. Even though preferences were coming from Libs.

  10. [and even then moaning and whining that they hadn’t really lost the election only ‘failed to get enough votes.’]

    Yes a bit like

    5 + 4 equals 9

    BUT

    4 + 5 doesn’t equals 9!

    Have they no shame?

  11. I for one am willing to sacrifice my state government in Qld for the incompetent idiot LNP, if it means Julia has a better chance at the next federal election. The fact that 37% of people here thought that Anna Bligh wouldn’t be premier astounds me. God this is a stupid state.

  12. [(1) If Gillard has any brains at all she will go the next National Labor Party Congress, or whatever it is called, and get agreement to a conscience vote on gay marriage and euthanasia,]

    Yep. Has to be done.

  13. [can’t have ‘more sneakier’ although with Abbott I’ll allow it.]

    Jenauthor, I’d cheerfully accept double superlatives: “the most sneakiest”, “the most vilest” … nyaah, make that “just about the most vilest” (I give his NCC mentor the double superlative)

  16. jenauthor

    No need to enter a self-loathing state about being pedantic. Pedantry is a noble practice, IMHO. OTOH, one of my life’s little enjoyments is, advertantly or inadvertantly, to make up my own rules of grammar as I go along. I grew up in a bilingual household which, more often than not, used the two languages at the same time and in the same sentences. Anarchic, but great fun.

  18. [
    God this is a stupid state.
    ]

    blackdog, the stupidity isn’t limited to Qld. We Victorians elected Fielding don’t forget. And he almost made it back. But its ok the DLP look like getting his seat instead 😀

  19. Boerwar, OPT

    The world of movies is also rich in appropriate descriptive images. Eg Star Wars

    Darth Vader – Tony Abbott
    Emporer Palpatine – Andrew Robb
    Darth Sidious – Malcolm Turnbull
    Admiral Vier – Brendan Nelson
    Jabba the Hutt – Clive Palmer
    Bobba Fett – Andrew Bolt

    Yoda – Gough Whitlam
    Obi Wan – Bob Hawke
    Princess Leia – Julia Gillard
    Luke Skywalker – Bill Shorten
    Hans Solo – Kevin Rudd (now frozen in carbonite)
    Lando Calrissian – Wayne Swann
    Chewbacca – Peter Garrett
    Jaja Binks – Marc Arbib/Karl Bitar cameo

  20. Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey told ABC News Online…

    [“It would seem rather hypocritical for us to claim the mantle of stability and then challenge that mantle 24 hours later,” he said.]

    Yes, yes it would Sloppy 😉

  21. lizzie @ 2705

    [Tim Wilson says that the Broadband will be an opportunity for Oppn to demonstrate all the WASTE of the govt. again. Subtext – Labor can’t do anything right.]

    Tim Wilson is a Coalition shill, and professional Abbott apologist from the Institute of Public Affairs, aka the Liberal Party think tank.

    His opinions have as much weight and credibility as would those of Barnaby Joyce, ie: zero.

  22. [I grew up in a bilingual household which, more often than not, used the two languages at the same time and in the same sentences. Anarchic, but great fun.]

    😉

    My mother was Dutch Boer … quite understand the above concept!

  23. Madcyril

    It is of some comfort about Fielding. I am now in the second most marginal seat in Qld. Looking forward to lots of visits by Julia.

  25. [Didn’t Wilkie in Denison and Brandt in Melbourne get in on Fib preferences?]

    Wilkie got in on Green preferences as well as Liberal preferences. He also got in on defecting Labor voters. So most likely the voters who voted for Wilkie were close to an even Lab/Lib 2PP split.

    And also, the argument that Bandt and Wilkie are toast now because they didn’t support the Libs ignores the fact that the Libs still have to choose between preferencing them and preferencing Labor. To preference Labor over Bandt or Wilkie because Bandt and Wilkie merely gave Labor limited support, as opposed to actually *being* Labor, is incoherent and self-destructive payback politics. Come election time next time cooler heads may well prevail.

    I go into this in far more detail at the bottom of my rather long piece about Denison here:

    http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/election-2010-how-denison-confused-the-nation/

  26. [No probs. English is endlessly elastic enough to meet all serious language needs:

    good, better, Gillard
    clever, cleverer, Gillard
    sneaky, more sneakier, Abbott
    vile, viler, Abbott]

    Love it, Boerwar; though (as above) I’d go “sneaky, more sneakier, Abbott, Santamaria”

  27. I think predictions on the Queensland election are a bit premature at this point, it wont be held until 2012 and a lot can change between now and then, Bligh is not a write off.

    New South Wales is of course a different matter. Labor will be butchered, and probably rightly so. I’m personally hoping that the Liberals aren’t the only ones to benefit from this, and that the Greens possibly pick up some seats

  29. OPT 2572

    I can’t keep up, as work takes its toll.

    But that reminds me of Bruce Shepherd and Brendan (I’ve never voted Labor/Liberal in my life – can’t remember which) Nelson jumping on the 1993 Coalition Bandwagon and sucking up for all their worth with their “union” the AMA.

    That turned out well for them, didn’t it?

  36. [My goodness, the comments on the Daily Tele. It’s like the Tea Party.

    Bloody nutters.]
    Hamish Regarding the Telegraph comments, ive never seen anything so one sided in my life, at least here there is a spread of opinions, Still they do say ‘your comment may no be added!’

  39. Emporer Palpatine – Andrew Robb
    Darth Sidious – Malcolm Turnbull

    I find your lack of knowledge on Star Wars trivia disturbing, Emperor Palpatine is darth Sidious.

    Personally I give this role to none other than the desicated coconut himself, mentoring his young student ‘Darth Mad Monk Abbott’ in the dark arts of core and non core promises (come on, did you really think the coalition would follow through with it’s paid perantal scheme that would make a socialist blush?)

  40. [blackdog, I live in a marginal in Vic and Julia made quite a few visits during the campaign (as did Tone). It’s nice to get the attention]

    I live in safe labor land (Reid) — we didn’t get one bit of paper, or anything at all in the way of visits. For a ‘junkie’ it is most disheartening.

  42. jenauthor

    I have always lived in a safe labor seat until now. Got polled for the first time in my life. Was very excited, but I suppose I will get sick of them ringing all the time in three years.

  44. [Puff,
    Do you think 1 Pyne is the equivalent of 9 seats?]
    He is equal to the Plague.
    But we can boast Julia. (as in hometown.)

  48. [Tony Abbott, however, gives every sign of being as vile and sneaky as Malcolm Fraser was in 1975]

    However underhanded and plain wrong the political manipulations by Whitlam’s opponents and the actual dismissal by Kerr may have been (and I do think there was some pretty shabby behaviour), nonetheless the most important fact about that situation was that it was put to the people immediately afterwards to make a judgement (as it should have been), and they unambiguously supported the decision.

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