Limbo dancing

While you wait:

• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.

• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.

• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.

• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.

• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.

• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,048 comments on “Limbo dancing”

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  2. Robb just replied that it’s “not gobbledigook” and then tried to explain why there is a difference and failed. He tried to explain to Faine that pressures on interest rates are due to Labor’s spending, and Faine said “no it isn’t it’s due to that it’s due to growth in mining”.

  4. [Any chance Turnbull for Speaker? Oddly silent, still courting informal vote perhaps?]

    Nah. He wouldn’t have anything to gain from that. He’s eyeing Abbott’s job.

  5. [did I hear correctly. The Libs are meeting the indies all separately at present?]

    I think that is what Robb confirmed. Not good for the Fibs.

  8. Paul Kelly tows the Murdoch/anti-Labor line, much like his fellow News Ltd journalists.
    A little sad, considering that he used to be a fairly decent political correspondent.

  12. [Faine that pressures on interest rates are due to Labor’s spending, and Faine said “no it isn’t it’s due to that it’s due to growth in mining”]

    why do we suddenly have the awakening.

    could it be spring cleaning.

  13. [now Robb is saying that Bob Brown is effectively the Deputy PM]

    Oops, I thought he was saying Brandt was – Victoria is correct I think, it was Brown he was saying is now deputy PM.

  15. [There’s plenty of ‘colour’ in the likes of Joyce, Heffernan and co.]

    Joyce is such a bad speaker that I get no enjoyment in any manner listening to him. I remain convinced that his second-reading rant on the CPRS late last year was the worst speech ever delivered in the Australian parliament.

    Heffernan is colourful, but he hardly ever gets to speak in the Senate.

  16. [george

    now Robb is saying that Bob Brown is effectively the Deputy PM!]

    No Mr Robb, Wayne Swan is the Deputy PM. You really need to stop getting your advice from Wikipedia.*

    *Of course, Wikipedia is actually a very reliable source of info, due to its strict guidelines and attentive moderation. It’s just the small chance that info can be easily corrupted means it can’t be used as a valid reference.

  18. [Katter too I reckon for Labor.]

    He desperately wants his Green Power Corridor finished, and NBN, and “e” health – one glance at Kennedy’s electoral map, and a bit of recalling how many of its Gulf residents spent weeks (in some case months) flooded in during the recent Big Wet, and you’ll appreciate how essential “e” services are.

    He is also a bit monomanical about “the oceans”, and has concerns related to quarantine & prevention of plant & animal diseases, rampant in islands to our north; including the very real threat of rabies’ hitching a ride here on a plane/boat – it’s found in flying-fox populations in some islands, inc Sumatra & Java, and dogs in Bali (inc Kuta). Note rabies warning to Indonesian-bound tourists Both of these concerns should resonate with Bob Brown.

    His more controversial & whacky ideas are waaay after those above.

  19. Its it true that the courier mail has NOT run with the black hole story?

    I find Hockey and Robb’s defence ridiculous. Presume Abbott will do the same. Surely they are shredding any remaining credibility they have. Wouldn’t it be more prudent to accept there is a problem with their costings, and outline how they will address the shortfall??

    I agree Rod, the public can now see that there WAS something the coalition was hiding. Too late for the voters, but not too late for the indies.

    When is the Abbott presser?

  20. Um, so we can point out that Warren Truss IS the Deputy Opposition Leader (and putatative Deputy PM)?

    Do they really want that idea out there?

  21. george we are loving this we can know without have to listen to them

    the abc still makes me cringe, even if they have suddenly had the awakening

  23. 148 victoria
    [TSOP

    What avatar did you use?]
    Seriously, you do NOT want to know. (or see)

    Like BK and Sky Agenda – it is akin to being a soldier deliberately exposed to an atomic blast at Maralinga!

  25. I did like Hockey’s dumbstruck reponse to the journo on the ABC pointing out that Oakeshot was still questioning the Coalition’s costings.

    I mean, Joe had already explained them to him! How could he not understand?

  27. victoria and Madcyril
    Thanks for the support and advice.
    I am cured. Even with the charming Bernardi on this morning I am enduring OK.
    Maybe the Treasury numbers have something to do with it.

  31. [now Robb is saying that Bob Brown is effectively the Deputy PM!]

    The Unhinging spreads! Has the Mad Monk bitten him on the neck? Any others?

  32. dave, the best part is, its not up to young libs voting online, its not up to the voters now. They have given Abbott a chance to govern. OK they didnt know about the black hole, so we’ll forgive them, I suppose. But it’s up the indies. They have made the costings a major issue, when they didnt need to. Now that it has blown up in Abbott’s face, how can they possibly back him?

    And were Robb or Hockey asked about the $3.5b in cuts? Where are they coming from? Otherwise the black hole is $11b

  35. [Posted Thursday, September 2, 2010 at 8:48 am | Permalink
    Vote early, vote often folks :

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/windsor-suspicious-of-coalition-after-black-hole-revelation-20100902-14nxz.html#poll

    Poll: Does Treasury’s revelation of a Coalition “black hole” weaken Tony Abbott’s bid to reach agreement with the independents to form government?]

    keep passing this on folks when you see it not on a page add it

    No 24%
    Yes 76%

    Total votes: 3141.

    Poll closes in 2 days.

  40. [RNM1953
    Posted Thursday, September 2, 2010 at 8:54 am | Permalink
    Limbo Dancing?
    Is Joe Hockey the Chubby Checker of Australian politics?]

    poor william he would never of thought that his heading would turn in to
    chubby checker , gee i think i was still at school

  41. So the coalition response is, our costings are STILL OK. Its a difference of opinion between Hogwarts, who did no modelling and accepted all their assumptions, and Treasury, and Treasury is wrong

    Bottom line- you cant govern if think Treasury cant get it right

  43. As a former union boss Mike Kelly on Agenda this morning is a very weak debater. Didnt come accross well at all with Coalitions Sen Bernardi, who I hasten to add is a fool.

  44. [Or should I say “Stand up For Rel Action!” post 3630]

    Oh so, it got posted?

    That’s what I changed the name of this account to. But it went into moderation and I figured as William was no doubt sleeping, it wasn’t worth the trouble just for a couple of hours of parody, so I went back to TSOP 🙂

  45. [BK

    You got through Agenda unscathed!]
    victoria
    Indeed I did!
    And the big question for the day – are we getting close to seeing the final public unhinging?

  46. [Its it true that the courier mail has NOT run with the black hole story?]

    Just checked. CM still in None So Blind mode. Maybe Mrs & Mr Madonna K being treated for shock as I type!

  49. Ron

    More bigoted bile from you. No facts again just denial of reality.

    Using your own argument, you have to support same-sex marriage as you said the govt should do what the majority of the people want. I showed you that 60% of the Oz people want same-sex marriage and then you shat yourself.

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