Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.
In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.
The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.
At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.
For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.
Plug all that in and here’s what you get:
Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)
In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.
UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.
[Tony Windsor says there’s a black hole in the Coalition’s costings of up to $11b ]
smiles knowingly
Windsor saying it seems like this could be a reason why the coalition was scared to submit the costings earlier…. Says hell be looking for an explanation tomorrow.
I really fail to see how the independents could back Abbott after seeing these costings, and claiming an 11 billion dollar black hole themselves.
Okay – so the new game – how will the OO counter this?
Windsor says Greens-Labor alliance doesnt have any bearing on his decision
Shanananana would say tomorrow on the OO, it is not a blackhole, it’s only a wormhole
btw, does anyone know how Windsor and Oakeshott voted in 2009 on the CPRS/ETS bills?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6aRwky0W5Y says it all really
[anony 72 + 1 =75 now thats what I call silly.]
a 2 sized black hole in the arithmetic?
what did he say Gus? 3237
In the immortal words of George W: “Mission Accomplished”
It’s just that treasury doesn’t UNDERSTAND coalition policies you see.
I think the line of desperation will be a combination:
1. Treasury is politicised, led by Ken Henry
2. Oppositions don’t have the same resources as the Government to put together coherent costings
Neither flies of course.
[Okay – so the new game – how will the OO counter this?]
“Wabor is worse!!!”
In Katter we trust…..
[ how will the OO counter this? ]
Easy, they will call it a saving.
[Windsor on lateline right now saying the black hole is 7-11 billion]
Did Windsor actually use that terminology (black hole)?
@ Puff
[Hockey:
Err, Tony, looks like we can’t afford Nauru.
Or the boatphone.]
Gold!
My money is on: “Treasury confirm Coalition Surplus”
Wilkie has been offered a deal on pokies and on the Royal Hobart by Abbott.
[INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie last night extracted anl offer from Tony Abbott on measures to tackle addiction to poker machines.
The as-yet confidential offer, which also included upgrades to Hobart Hospital, was made after the Denison MP and the Opposition Leader met for the second time in two days.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-offers-andrew-wilkie-deal-on-pokies/story-fn59niix-1225913012612
[Windsor saying it seems like this could be a reason why the coalition was scared to submit the costings earlier…. Says hell be looking for an explanation tomorrow.]
KOW: “Well?”
Abbott: “Did I mention I’ve always dreamed of living in the country. I’m a country boy at heart, y’see.”
KOW:….
Darn
actually TJ said “black hole”
TW was more measured
😉
* so the coalition have included the pbs savings twice..?
* and the coalition still included medibank dividends revenue after the privatization of medibank..?
* +0.6% overestimation of interest rates
etc.
But seriously, budgets are so rubbery these days, with forecasts good for less than a month or two ahead, I don’t think it’s useful to focus so heavily on these costings ‘gotchas’. Sure, it’s nice to crucify the libs for their hypocrisy, but I don’t think it’s helpful to the overall political process.
[My money is on: “Treasury confirm Coalition Surplus”]
🙂
[Mr Katter outed himself in 2004 as having been among a group of university students who threw eggs at the Beatles forty years earlier.]
lol… the more i know about him, the more i think he should be PM
This is blowback from Smirker’s jackass budget honesty scheme.
To be honest, I reckon its always been a complete crock – an incoming govt can always test their budget after the get in with treasury, and adjust accordingly. Itd all set up to advantage incumbents.
But hey: The Libs brought it in to screw labor, and now they’re under hoist on thier petard, and the serves them right.
Hear that? thats the sound of Phoney’s credibility leaving the building. What a bunch of shysters!
Looking forward to the libs trying to explain budget complexities to the dopey voters who swung from ALP to lib.
I can’t understand this mindset as much as they can’t understand politics.
I am sure that treasury is ready for a hard fight, bogged down in boring detail.
Karmic.
btw
another 2 schools at 2.45
🙂
A ray of light at last, we might dodge the bullett here, this gives me some hope.
Now, let’s not celebrate. Abbott could squirm out of this and give KOW another reason to support him. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings. I don’t want massive disappointment if they still go ahead and support him.
Now we know what the sticking point for Wilkie is that was alluded to earlier.
[Senator Xenophon and Mr Wilkie are expected to meet several of Ms Gillard’s senior advisers today to continue discussions on gambling reform.]
Well there goes $11b worth of pork up in smoke.
more whoops:
windsor said it, and to make sure he was not misunderstood, he repeated it twice – between $7b and $11b black hole – depending on whether you used Coalition or Treasury assumptions
conversly, Treasury found the ALP costings to be largely in line
all documents are going to be released to the public
break out the flack jackets
young peter
come sit here
🙂
And I bet treasury is tired of being political football.
Okthis one is oriceless
they counted the income from selling Medibank Private but forgot to remove the annual dividend paid by Medicare Private.
If only my shares worked like that.
[ actually TJ said “black hole”
TW was more measured ]
No, TW did say Black Hole am sure he did.
[Looking forward to the libs trying to explain budget complexities to the dopey voters who swung from ALP to lib.]
“Unfortunately we have to make a bit of a sacrifice to stop the boats and undo the damage Labor has done to us, so it’s going to take a little while longer. I hope you understand.”
There was a reason that costing were #1 on the indies wish list
Barnaby said it is more like 7-11 trillion. He was then taken out the back and shot.
P. Vernula
Redemption thy name is treasury
🙂
[Wilkie has been offered a deal on pokies and on the Royal Hobart by Abbott.
INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie last night extracted anl offer from Tony Abbott on measures to tackle addiction to poker machines.
The as-yet confidential offer, which also included upgrades to Hobart Hospital, was made after the Denison MP and the Opposition Leader met for the second time in two days]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-offers-andrew-wilkie-deal-on-pokies/story-fn59niix-1225913012612
Gillard had better get her skates on and offer something similar. God knows why she hasn’t already offered these things (assuming she hasn’t)..
the only thing that worked out for the coalition was the PPL scheme, which was over-costed, if the burden of the scheme is born by BigBus
AC
bastard
Another glass of vino hits the screen
🙂
@ 3285 I knew in my heart that the undies would release all the details. Julia – you really are the ace negotiator.
[ A ray of light at last, we might dodge the bullett here, this gives me some hope.
]
“We” = Arbib Bitar & Co ?
Jackol
[Sure, it’s nice to crucify the libs for their hypocrisy]
No, Jackol, it is necessary. These blighters are out to take control of this country using a meme of Coalition sound, trustworthy financial management, hand in hand with another meme of Labor incompetence in the same.
Truth becomes lies, lies become truth.
It is right they be hoisted on their own petard.