12.01pm. Actually really close in Brisbane – LNP only 0.2 per cent ahead.
11.35pm. Talk is of the DLP winning the final Victorian Senate seat, but it seems to me Steve Fielding isn’t out of the hunt. The DLP currently has its nose just in front of Fielding at the fourth final count. But if Fielding gets ahead, he’ll take their place. It’s also possible neither will win, and the last seat will go Labor or Liberal. What we’re sure of is two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens.
10.50pm. It’s been put to me that Labor seriously think they can cut a deal with the conservative independents in which Bob Katter becomes Speaker, because a) they wouldn’t want the double dissolution that would inevitably occur before too long under a Coalition minority government, and b) because Labor could argue they are better placed to deal with a Labor-Greens Senate.
10.23pm. When I compared those SA Senate results with the House figures, I recognised Bob Day probably wouldn’t stay ahead of the third Liberal at the second last count – and indeed, he’s already fallen behind. Likely final result: Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
10.18pm. Looking grim for Wilson Tuckey – Nationals well clear of Labor in second place, only a 4.5 per cent gap to close over Tuckey on Labor preferences which I presume they’ll get.
10.12pm. Current SA Senate projection from ABC has Bob Day of Family First winning a seat: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens, 1 Family First. Like the 2007 result, except with Family First in place of Xenophon. However, I should stress that early Senate projections can be wonky.
10.10pm. Alexander Downer and Bruce Hawker seem to know things the ABC computer doesn’t – the latter has Labor swing in Canning at 1.5 per cent, 2.8 per cent short of what they need.
10.03pm. Corangamite souring for Labor: now 50.0-50.0. Boothby now back as undecided with Liberal lead of 0.5 per cent.
9.57pm. None of the Perth marginal seats coming home for Labor.
9.53pm. And if you happened to see me on Sky News this evening, I do realise Neville Bonner was a Lib rather than a Nat.
9.52pm. Soon as I’d finished telling News Radio Wilkie would win Denison, Mark Arbib came on saying he thought different.
9.24pm. ABC computer calls Canning for Liberal.
9.23pm. ABC says Liberals have pulled ahead in Hasluck.
9.18pm. Antony hints Labor’s 0.5 per cent lead in Hasluck will widen as the next booths report two-party counts. However, it’s looking like a win there would be against a metropolitan trend. Don’t put any stock in ABC Stirling figures – obviously a gremlin.
9.14pm. 13.6 per cent swing to Labor in Stirling? I confidently predict that one will iron out.
9.12pm. Labor 0.4 per cent ahead in Hasluck after 6.1 per cent counted.
8.57pm. ABC computer calls Robertson for Labor.
8.55pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.
8.53pm. ABC computer calls La Trobe for Labor.
8.50pm. I’m wondering if the Liberals ran some sort of awareness raising campaign in Denison explaining the virtues of voting for somebody else.
8.49pm. Stephen Smith sounding vaguely encouraged about Canning.
8.30pm. As you’ve all no doubt just learned, Andrew Wilkie might pull off an extraordinary win in Denison.
8.25pm. Christopher Pyne retains Sturt with swing of over 2 per cent.
8.23pm. ABC computer calls Corangamite and Deakin for Labor.
8.21pm. ABC calls Brisbane, Dawson and Longman for LNP.
8.16pm. Warren Entsch no doubt correct to talk of heartening swings to him in remote communities. These booths swung against the Liberals by up to 30 per cent when he retired in 2007.
8.12pm. Aston firming for Liberals. Huge swing in Wentworth to Turnbull, now the proud owner of a double-digit margin.
8.10pm. Last Senate seat in SA likely to be close race between Labor and the Greens; Liberals probably good for three seats.
8.08pm. Labor vote in Victoria right on three quotas, so Greens unlikely for Senate despite high statewide vote: probably 3 Labor, 3 Coalition.
8.07pm. Drop in Labor vote in NSW leaves Lee Rhiannon a big chance for the Senate.
7.58pm. Liberal swing in Lindsay has come in from 7.4 per cent to 6.9 per cent; Labor needs it to come down to 6.3 per cent.
7.53pm. ABC computer calls Bonner for LNP.
7.52pm. Bad sign for Labor that Stephen Smith is hanging hope on Hasluck and Swan.
7.51pm. Robertson has stayed lineball.
7.47pm. A very sharp PB commenter projects 75-76 seats for the Coalition.
7.42pm. Small swing to Liberals in Sturt.
7.41pm. 2.4 per cent counted in Boothby, 1.5 per cent swing to Labor, slightly short of 2.4 per cent required.
7.39pm. Labor ahead in Longman too – situation looking slightly less appalling for them in Queensland.
7.38pm. Moreton called for Labor too – some of Labor’s worst losses are subsiding.
7.37. Petrie called for Labor.
7.35pm. Scare apparently passing in Banks also, but ABC TV tells us Labor are behind in Lindsay. Antony says Labor ahead in Aston.
7.32pm. Scares for Labor in Blair and Capricornia seem to be passing. ABC computer not yet giving away quite a few Liberal seats in Victoria, but Labor only ahead in La Trobe and winning in McEwen.
7.29pm. ABC computer calls Bennelong for Liberal.
7.27pm. Banks would be a bolter – Stephen Smith sounding almost defeated in his call for WA voters to get their act together with half an hour to go.
7.25pm. Labor ahead in Petrie.
7.25pm. Page called for Labor.
7.25pm. Labor back in front in Moreton.
7.24pm. Lower than expected swing in Macarthur – Libs only just in front.
7.23pm. ABC computer calls Forde for LNP.
7.22pm. Labor only “ahead” in Capricornia – 9.0 per cent swing with 10 per cent counted.
7.21pm. Little doubt it seems about Eden-Monaro and Melbourne.
7.20pm. Stephen Smith encouraged by 1 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.
7.18pm. Coalition “ahead” in too many Queensland seats for Labor’s comfort: Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Moreton.
7.18pm. Flynn and Leichhardt first gains called for Coalition.
7.17pm. ABC computer calls Dobell for Labor.
7.17pm. Liberals slightly ahead in Corangamite; Stephen Smith sounding a bit less confident than before, but still confident.
7.16pm. ABC computer says LNP “ahead” in Bonner and Brisbane.
7.14pm. ABC computer results lagging far behind television. From the latter, 10.7 per cent counted, Labor 0.6 per cent ahead.
7.11pm. Antony reckons Labor “ahead” in La Trobe.
7.09pm. Take it to the bank that Graham Richardson knows what’s going on: he says Labor are a “reasonable chance of delivering a very small victory”.
7.05pm. Big count in Blair: Labor hanging on.
7.03pm. Nick Minchin was sounding confident about Brisbane, but the swing on the ABC computer is only 2.8 per cent.
7.01pm. Labor looking good in McEwen.
7.01pm. Mounting trouble for Labor in Queensland.
7.00pm. Consistent swing to Labor in Tasmania – worth nothing to them.
6.53pm. Big swing in Blair – lineball.
6.53pm. Braddon called for Labor.
6.52pm. ABC computer has “LNP ahead” in Brisbane.
6.50pm. Solid swing to Labor holding in Braddon.
6.49pm. George Brandis expects current 6 per cent swing in Queensland “will come back a bit”.
6.48pm. 6 per cent swing in Queensland, but mostly from country areas.
6.25pm. Stephen Smith confident Labor will hold Corangamite.
6.05pm. Polling booths have closed. Live blogging of the type site regulars are familiar with on state election night will be conducted, and a CoverIt Live chat room facility featuring myself and other Crikey types will be added at 6.30pm.
…pt 2 @cud. I forgot to add that I meant Rudd/Greens could have forced it into a DD. Which considering just how bad the Libs were doing last year, would have been the best thing.
cud, what will it take for you to get the message that not liking Abbott does not automatically mean a person must support Labor?
The Greens will never vote for CC action. They prefer being in Parliament more.
[Cuppa, i will wait and see, plenty of pressure in this campaign and he withstood it.]
Pressure from what quarters? The media? Nope. He got a magic carpet ride like no other OL before him. Pressure from ‘running’ a country? Nope.
Running a country is infinitely more pressurised than running a three-week election campaign. I say again, wait till the pressure builds up, then stand back as the cork shoots out and offensive gaffes spray eveywhich way.
The entertainment value to observers will be some consolation after the circumstances of tonight …
The labor people on here remind me of the people who post on the Herald Sun website.
[@thomas – if Labor didn’t do what it did. Labor still would have lost these seats tonight in QLD and NSW and then a few more in TAS, VIC and SA. It was the people behind Gillard you should be blaming.]
No they would not have. Some maybe, but the election would have been won. Rudd’s incumbency gives a powerful advantage, Rudd’s superior campaigning and performance, and the fact that Rudd could point to Labor’s successes as the genuine incumbent. There would not have been swings like this. Just go back in history to PMs in similar positions.
The result today would not have been in doubt and Rudd Labor would be on its second term heading toward a possible Gillard Labor third term.
Also Gillard’s abysmal start, and poor campaign and under performance… sigh.
Blaming the MSM absolves the government from communicating directly with the people.
JJ @1896
I read the rest of that and agree completely. What needs to happen now is the progressives in this country need to do more to counter-act Murdoch and the other forces that lead to a dangerously incompetent and manipulative media. At every level we need to make their lives miserable. We need to promote alternative sources of news to the “ordinary folks”. We need more GetUP like campaigns merely aimed at correcting common falsehoods.. to independently (of Labor) bring to light Labor’s accomplishments. and so on.
[I hope the 3 independents Bandt and Wilkie do us all a favour and demand an MMP referendum.]
It’s funny, but the Greens (Bandt) always wanted proportional representation, Wilkie is not only a ex green but has experienced the Hare-Clark system is pr in some ways. and strangely enough, Katter often harps on about the bush not being representated, and needing a new mind of politics..
It’s hilarious thinking about 🙂
Cuppa @ 1904
[The entertainment value to observers will be some consolation after the circumstances of tonight …]
Oh, but what entertainment there’ll be in watching Labor tear itself to shreds, and then onward to New South Wales.
[History is going to judge Rudd harshly.]
History will only remember that Rudd was knifed by Gillard and they lost because of it. That will be the long last memory.
@1901, as I understand it, a DD couldn’t have been called until early this year. And had it been over an ETS.. it may have been a vote loser, sadly.
@1902, I left it unstated that there are other reasons for not voting Liberal.. such as their core beliefs and ideas are baseless and dangerous?
jonsson@1907
Rubbish – Had the Govt communicated direxctly with the public via Giovt Advertising , TV ads and direct mail – you would’ve had the media sqqueal like little girls.
It’s damned if you do – damned if you don’t.
@Thomas – I’m sorry, I don’t see what you see in Rudd. People were sick of Howard and hate workchoices and he was losing his crap. I mean the RSPT alone made me shake my head in disbelief. He was a poor leader.
undoubtedly, labor have f@cked themselves royally.
is gillard responsible for the shemozzle? partly, but i suspect the majority of the blame should be focused on those who lost their nerve and thought it necessary to change the leader. did gillard have a choice? she was convinced that a change in leadership was required. she could have refused but another less qualified candidate would have been been used instead.
it’s no use speculating on what might have happened if some actions weren’t or were taken. unfortunately, we can only just try to deal with the consequences.
hopefully, the labor party will take this opportunity to conduct a purge within its ranks.
The shortest and most accurate description of this election is simply…
Gillard knifed Rudd in so doing lost the election.
Pure and simple, accurate truthful.
cud chewer
Posted Sunday, August 22, 2010 at 1:56 am | Permalink
@1901, as I understand it, a DD couldn’t have been called until early this year. And had it been over an ETS.. it may have been a vote loser, sadly.
With Abbott a month into the job and the Libs on life support in the polls? Pay attention.
Frank
There are more ways of getting your message through than advertising.
The election was lost when Rudd didn’t follow through with a DD in Dec/Jan.
jonsson @ 1919
[There are more ways of getting your message through than advertising.]
For example, standing on street corners in a koala suit.
JONSSON
why trash the swedes
my elder bro calls you atroll
what say you?
jonsson@1919
When it invloves use of taxpayers money such as dirfect mailouts from MP’s printing allowances etc – you would get a BER Waste Campaign – but on a MUCH bigger scale.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxqXeOEPMG8
Bona fide Swede with 15 yrs in the land of VB. Just utterly dissapointed of the government losing an unlosable election.
we can only speculate on the outcome of a dd election, against abbott. would there be a period permitted for campaigning?
Bit of hostility there Gus. Vodka helps. Not sure I understand where you are coming from. Labor held all the aces and folded. Julia is the best leader by far, but was cut a dud deck.
Okay, so basically, correct me if I’m wrong, but:
IF, and this is a big IF, we win: Lindsay, Corangamite AND Brisbane
THEN we have 73.
73 + Brandt & Wilkie puts us on 75.
From there, we’ve got Oakeshott/Katter/Windsor – take your pick.
PS
MY BRO AND THE UNDERKIND ISD SVENSKA”’
DONT F*** WITH A SWEDE
Well said, JJ. You have a compulsive message. Count me in.
Well I declare the Greens to be the big winner in all this, neither Labor nor the coalition have won this.
Interesting times ahead. It jut remains to be seen how independent the independents really are.
or would we have had an election for both houses within a few weeks?
suppose the timing would prove critical to determine if a scare campaign could have been mounted against it…
Ok, sa du snackar svenska? Vem tror du vinner valet i Sverige? Sahlin?
J
OCH
SVENSKA TIL BRO
*DONT FU** WITH VIKINGS*
doesn’t matter if the libs have reached the magical 76 mark or not. it hasn’t stopped abbott from claiming some sort of legitimacy, regardless of the realities! if he isn’t able to form a minority government, and labor is, the next three years he’s going to be banging on about it; and the media must just reinforce that message!
Yes, trying to instal the spirit of the vikings in my boys. Only 1000 years lost.
Cuppa @ 1885
I have been off looking at results. What John Howard did as Treasure in 1982 is historical fact BUT it is history – 30 years ago – a lot of water under the bridge. Get over it – if you haven’t it is your problem.
labor, even with a minority government, still faces a hostile senate till next july!
The fact is that if we pull off 73 seats, Labor will form the minority government.
If we pull off 72, I’d put our chances somewhere in the 30% chance range.
Labor has a few things going for it in that it does want to make big infrastructure investments in broadband and so on, and doesn’t have a ridiculous paid parental leave scheme that the regionals don’t like (stay at home wives subsidising city folk?!), as well as the fact that it would have a much easier time with the senate.
[Gillard knifed Rudd ]
No, I don’t think that’s an accurate way to put it. As I understand it, he did not have the support of caucus, he reisgned the PMship and Julia was convinced to take over. Yes, I believe she needed to be convinced. That doesn’t amount to her “knifing” him. If you must use the cutting/blade metaphor, you could say that, when resiging, he “fell on a sword”.
Ah yeah, bloody democrats. If they had preferenced the Greens ahead of the Liberals in ACT we’d have another Green senator.
Jonsson
glad you refute your heritage
my boys are glad to take up the cudgel
Black
But Howard retained his dodgy financial skills during the 2000s. In his book, Costello says he asked Howard to chose one out of five elephants to run with and Howard picked all five! Howard overheated the economy, wage earners were f****d and deceived, meanwhile company profits boomed.
Not refuting anything. The Baltic will be ours again, and Finland and the Baltic states, bits of Poland and Germany. Heck, we even had a bite at Turkey once.
“Julia was convinced to take over. Yes, I believe she needed to be convinced. That doesn’t amount to her “knifing” him. If you must use the cutting/blade metaphor, you could say that, when resiging, he “fell on a sword”.
All of this says she has very poor political judgment, and the elction campaign shows she has has poor judgement or is easily influenced – if she had serious backbone she would have said , I an deputy leader, I will deal with Kevin, but her ambition got in the way. She may stay as PM but her political capital is trashed big time.
[The fact is that if we pull off 73 seats, Labor will form the minority government.]
Most likely. How long it lasts is another question.
People are portraying Wilkie as likely to line up with Labor and I think he will if it comes to that, especially based on his history with Howard and his strong views on asylum seekers. But while he may well initially support Labor they will really have to pull their socks up to keep his support for a full term, especially in view of his views on “truth in politics” and improving the quality of governance. I’ve mentioned before that while Wilkie is a former Green, it makes more sense to see him as a kind of electorally turbocharged Democrat – as occupying a similar position to that the Democrats used to occupy, but without being weighed down by that party’s broken party structure, internal tensions, waffle-fests and sellouts. Watch out!
if jg hadn’t pushed k, another person would have been found. rudd’s time was numbered.
think we know how the 18-30 demographic voted; green
First – I say this to Bob1234 & Tom the First and Best – I congratulate the Greens on winning the seat of Melbourne and now holding one senate seat in every state. The Greens can consider themselves a little unlucky not to have won either Sydney or Graynder.
Overall a very interesting set of results. The ALP brought this onto themselves by taking the foot of the policy peddle late last year and just presuming that the Liberals were such a divided joke.
Tony Abbott actually deserves some credit for from day one of his leadership he was on the front foot and while I consider his policies to be half baked, negative and backwards; I will praise him for taking Rudd apart and maintaining his composer during the campaign.
Putting aside the second week of the campaign I felt the ALP won the campaign due to them finally focusing on a pretty good record, a record that the ALP should have been owning from the moment it became clear that it was going to avoid a recession.
The great lesion is that while it is good to have a policy headline but you need to deliver and sadly the ALP in several areas let themselves down.
So now for the future, I think the three Independents and Brandt & Wilkie will side with the Government.
If Labor gets 73 they will hold power. 73+Bandt+Wilkie+Oakshott (who will support party w most seats). 73 seats to Abbott and the 3 independents will go with the Libs. Literally a one seat election.
Has there been any discussion around Grayndler?
I fear that it may be lost to the Greens as well!
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-121.htm
The Greens are outpolling the Libs and, from what I can find, the Libs are preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor.