12.01pm. Actually really close in Brisbane – LNP only 0.2 per cent ahead.
11.35pm. Talk is of the DLP winning the final Victorian Senate seat, but it seems to me Steve Fielding isn’t out of the hunt. The DLP currently has its nose just in front of Fielding at the fourth final count. But if Fielding gets ahead, he’ll take their place. It’s also possible neither will win, and the last seat will go Labor or Liberal. What we’re sure of is two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens.
10.50pm. It’s been put to me that Labor seriously think they can cut a deal with the conservative independents in which Bob Katter becomes Speaker, because a) they wouldn’t want the double dissolution that would inevitably occur before too long under a Coalition minority government, and b) because Labor could argue they are better placed to deal with a Labor-Greens Senate.
10.23pm. When I compared those SA Senate results with the House figures, I recognised Bob Day probably wouldn’t stay ahead of the third Liberal at the second last count – and indeed, he’s already fallen behind. Likely final result: Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
10.18pm. Looking grim for Wilson Tuckey – Nationals well clear of Labor in second place, only a 4.5 per cent gap to close over Tuckey on Labor preferences which I presume they’ll get.
10.12pm. Current SA Senate projection from ABC has Bob Day of Family First winning a seat: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens, 1 Family First. Like the 2007 result, except with Family First in place of Xenophon. However, I should stress that early Senate projections can be wonky.
10.10pm. Alexander Downer and Bruce Hawker seem to know things the ABC computer doesn’t – the latter has Labor swing in Canning at 1.5 per cent, 2.8 per cent short of what they need.
10.03pm. Corangamite souring for Labor: now 50.0-50.0. Boothby now back as undecided with Liberal lead of 0.5 per cent.
9.57pm. None of the Perth marginal seats coming home for Labor.
9.53pm. And if you happened to see me on Sky News this evening, I do realise Neville Bonner was a Lib rather than a Nat.
9.52pm. Soon as I’d finished telling News Radio Wilkie would win Denison, Mark Arbib came on saying he thought different.
9.24pm. ABC computer calls Canning for Liberal.
9.23pm. ABC says Liberals have pulled ahead in Hasluck.
9.18pm. Antony hints Labor’s 0.5 per cent lead in Hasluck will widen as the next booths report two-party counts. However, it’s looking like a win there would be against a metropolitan trend. Don’t put any stock in ABC Stirling figures – obviously a gremlin.
9.14pm. 13.6 per cent swing to Labor in Stirling? I confidently predict that one will iron out.
9.12pm. Labor 0.4 per cent ahead in Hasluck after 6.1 per cent counted.
8.57pm. ABC computer calls Robertson for Labor.
8.55pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.
8.53pm. ABC computer calls La Trobe for Labor.
8.50pm. I’m wondering if the Liberals ran some sort of awareness raising campaign in Denison explaining the virtues of voting for somebody else.
8.49pm. Stephen Smith sounding vaguely encouraged about Canning.
8.30pm. As you’ve all no doubt just learned, Andrew Wilkie might pull off an extraordinary win in Denison.
8.25pm. Christopher Pyne retains Sturt with swing of over 2 per cent.
8.23pm. ABC computer calls Corangamite and Deakin for Labor.
8.21pm. ABC calls Brisbane, Dawson and Longman for LNP.
8.16pm. Warren Entsch no doubt correct to talk of heartening swings to him in remote communities. These booths swung against the Liberals by up to 30 per cent when he retired in 2007.
8.12pm. Aston firming for Liberals. Huge swing in Wentworth to Turnbull, now the proud owner of a double-digit margin.
8.10pm. Last Senate seat in SA likely to be close race between Labor and the Greens; Liberals probably good for three seats.
8.08pm. Labor vote in Victoria right on three quotas, so Greens unlikely for Senate despite high statewide vote: probably 3 Labor, 3 Coalition.
8.07pm. Drop in Labor vote in NSW leaves Lee Rhiannon a big chance for the Senate.
7.58pm. Liberal swing in Lindsay has come in from 7.4 per cent to 6.9 per cent; Labor needs it to come down to 6.3 per cent.
7.53pm. ABC computer calls Bonner for LNP.
7.52pm. Bad sign for Labor that Stephen Smith is hanging hope on Hasluck and Swan.
7.51pm. Robertson has stayed lineball.
7.47pm. A very sharp PB commenter projects 75-76 seats for the Coalition.
7.42pm. Small swing to Liberals in Sturt.
7.41pm. 2.4 per cent counted in Boothby, 1.5 per cent swing to Labor, slightly short of 2.4 per cent required.
7.39pm. Labor ahead in Longman too – situation looking slightly less appalling for them in Queensland.
7.38pm. Moreton called for Labor too – some of Labor’s worst losses are subsiding.
7.37. Petrie called for Labor.
7.35pm. Scare apparently passing in Banks also, but ABC TV tells us Labor are behind in Lindsay. Antony says Labor ahead in Aston.
7.32pm. Scares for Labor in Blair and Capricornia seem to be passing. ABC computer not yet giving away quite a few Liberal seats in Victoria, but Labor only ahead in La Trobe and winning in McEwen.
7.29pm. ABC computer calls Bennelong for Liberal.
7.27pm. Banks would be a bolter – Stephen Smith sounding almost defeated in his call for WA voters to get their act together with half an hour to go.
7.25pm. Labor ahead in Petrie.
7.25pm. Page called for Labor.
7.25pm. Labor back in front in Moreton.
7.24pm. Lower than expected swing in Macarthur – Libs only just in front.
7.23pm. ABC computer calls Forde for LNP.
7.22pm. Labor only “ahead” in Capricornia – 9.0 per cent swing with 10 per cent counted.
7.21pm. Little doubt it seems about Eden-Monaro and Melbourne.
7.20pm. Stephen Smith encouraged by 1 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.
7.18pm. Coalition “ahead” in too many Queensland seats for Labor’s comfort: Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Moreton.
7.18pm. Flynn and Leichhardt first gains called for Coalition.
7.17pm. ABC computer calls Dobell for Labor.
7.17pm. Liberals slightly ahead in Corangamite; Stephen Smith sounding a bit less confident than before, but still confident.
7.16pm. ABC computer says LNP “ahead” in Bonner and Brisbane.
7.14pm. ABC computer results lagging far behind television. From the latter, 10.7 per cent counted, Labor 0.6 per cent ahead.
7.11pm. Antony reckons Labor “ahead” in La Trobe.
7.09pm. Take it to the bank that Graham Richardson knows what’s going on: he says Labor are a “reasonable chance of delivering a very small victory”.
7.05pm. Big count in Blair: Labor hanging on.
7.03pm. Nick Minchin was sounding confident about Brisbane, but the swing on the ABC computer is only 2.8 per cent.
7.01pm. Labor looking good in McEwen.
7.01pm. Mounting trouble for Labor in Queensland.
7.00pm. Consistent swing to Labor in Tasmania – worth nothing to them.
6.53pm. Big swing in Blair – lineball.
6.53pm. Braddon called for Labor.
6.52pm. ABC computer has “LNP ahead” in Brisbane.
6.50pm. Solid swing to Labor holding in Braddon.
6.49pm. George Brandis expects current 6 per cent swing in Queensland “will come back a bit”.
6.48pm. 6 per cent swing in Queensland, but mostly from country areas.
6.25pm. Stephen Smith confident Labor will hold Corangamite.
6.05pm. Polling booths have closed. Live blogging of the type site regulars are familiar with on state election night will be conducted, and a CoverIt Live chat room facility featuring myself and other Crikey types will be added at 6.30pm.
You should be proud Bree, you got the redneck vote!
so when does peter garrett go back to doing what he does best.
Cobber: Dancing round like an eejit? Instead of, ummm…. dancing round (politics) looking like an eejit?
Btw, WTF happened? I piss off to Ubud for a coupla weeks, and now Abbott has a chance of being PM?
I missed the campaign – what led us to this situation?
Radguy. I watched seat after seat with Liberal majority less than the combined Alp/Green votes tonight during the televised count. If the greens had one iota of principle they would never have stood in marginal ALP seats and risked an Abbott victory with all the nation destroying policies and human suffering that it guarantees. To think I even voted for greens in the senate this time around. More fool I.
Like Australia really needs the progressive vote split.
Knobs the ALP may be but whose in whose hands would you rather see the next boat load of asylum seekers, those marine parks that will be fished now, the people with disabilities who needed a National Disability Insurance Scheme?
And now we will collect not a cent of a mining tax to fund this needs.
If the greens are in it for the political power trip fine, thats legit, just admit it. Don’t cloak it under a false concern for the needy, weak and our vulnerable environment. Australia was at a tipping point, and the greens just tipped us over the edge.
The blood will never wash off, you know.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2004
Hear Bloody Hear.
Especially when St Bob publicly stated when Abbott introduced that PPL that the Libs “Out greened the Greens” – you immedatly knew whrre the Greens natural allies REALLY were – not the ALP.
Just ask Adele Carles – once she got in Fremantle she immediately screwed her party, in both cases and revealed she was nothing more than a Libs for Forrests type of person.
You reap what you guys sow.
Enjoy WWorkchoices Mk 2 – and forget about an NBN – and an ETS – that will be nothing but a thought bubble.
fools.
Peter Garrett tried to do a good job for his country. I don’t see many other members taking on something difficult and important like he did. I’m glad he’s kept his seat. Fair go, he F**ked up. People are right to be upset about loved ones who have died as a result. However, Peter is as philosophically sound as an ALP member can be.
The way I see it, compare it to the amount of ADF personnel that we have lost or have been injured.
This is the liberals war, and it makes us less secure as a nation.
Andrew Wilkie is in the know. I look forward to hearing from him and the other independents.
Niall Ferguson now speaking some disturbing truths on big ideas. “no dramas?”
I think there is. It may come to us for the W and P choice. Not goat-herders this time.
Every aussie must wake up and see that cool heads now are more crucial than any other time in history.
That kinda attitude will get you two nowhere.
You guys pander to idiots. I am even less inclined to be supportive of your party now.
Luckily, you two are in the minority.
Radguy@2007
It’s not an attitude – it’s a proven fact.
Something that the Greens seem incapable of dealing with.
One example – Hasluck – Sharryn Jackson would’ve won – had the Greens Candidate not direct her preference to her fellow indigenous Independent candidate and vice versa.
Radguy peter garrett comments were light hearted and in jest.
Whats the go with the numbers in Boothby? must be heaps of people voting green 1 liberal 2??? alp+green vote far exceeds lib but 2pp puts lib ahead.
Radguy
I am trying to be polite here. Those of us who were looking to an ALP victory to stave off a return to the cruel, vicious Howard Manifesto are a little tired and emotional right now, particularly those who were looking to a strong greens’ senate result to really put the neo-cons on the back foot and to get a real ets in.
Don’t you have on old tree to save or something?
[That kinda attitude will get you two nowhere.]
You don’t get it do you Radguy?
We are all nowhere now. You too.
Screw the labor party if they can’t beat a throwback like Abbott. Don’t try and blame anyone else anywhere for your political cowardice and abysmal efforts.
You still around Frank C?
Maybe the Greens will be happier with a hung parliament. Maybe you might listen to us in future. Hasluck has likely gone to an indigenous – good on him! We’ll see how he represents his people. You got most of our preferences. We would have an Abbott government if we had done 50-50. Very ungrateful you are Frank.
Australia will vote for the party who cooperates with the independents and the Greens the best next time.
So behave yourself Frank!
Peter J. Nicol@2012
You have just proven Puff’s Point.
Enjoy Abbott.
Thee Greens were one of the those who helped produce this mess.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2013
Yep, still not tired despite spending 3 hours in the cold wind handing out HTV cards.
At least I put my money where my mouth is by being an active Party member – despite having a physical disability.
Whereas you are nothing more as a keyboard coward.
Peter J Nicholl,
I will own the ALP shortcomings. To not defeat Abbott was appalling. True they had to defeat the full weight of the neo-con machine. The ALP with all it’s resources, incumbency, history and experience should have been able to do it. But they couldn’t. Off course when the greens line up against the neo-con forces you will get your way, right?
Greens thy name is roadkill.
Frank Calabrese@2016
Whoops my last comment should be directed to the following :
Radguy@2014
Mess? That’s what you call it.
You will get NBN, no filter, mining tax, better environment, what’s your problem?
Sounds good to me.
Oh bugger, I appear to be replying to Frank. Didn’t I write a memo to myself about this, oh, around the time of the state election?
Anyway…
Frank, this is gold! You are blaming the Greens for your inability to beat Abbott?
A little bit of self reflection is called for here. You stuffed it up. Big time. The assassination of Kruddy was a disaster. The ETS cowardice started the rot, and your “hard men” of the right completed the catastrophe.
But, bleat on about the nasty Greens… off you go…
Frank, you do not know what I am nor what I do.
Peter J. Nicol@2020
Four Words for you.
Adele Carles, Troy Buswell.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2021
Sorry, my last comment wasn’t supposed to be directed at you it was directed at Radguy – I mixed up my replies.
On another topic – how do I find out how the Sex Party went – any totals anywhere? Senate mainly…
The writing was on the wall for Labor when Ian Macfarlane came out of negotiations with Penny Wong and (patronisingly) declared that she was one smart cookie. Sorta went to her head, I reckon and she just caved in and caved in and caved in to all the Lib demands.
The Greens were right to reject the crap policy put up the Senate.
That said, it was a masterstroke by the Lib strategists to keep delaying and altering the policy till there was nothing left.
Rudd should have called a DD back then. Abbott was just a Lib faceless man Minchin stooge, the electorate was in uproar and Labor would have romped it in.
I like Gillard. I think she’s smart and honest – but seriously, Labor didn’t think this through at all. Couldn’t claim economic success because it happened under Rudd.
I’m glad I voted Greens – at least with Bob Brown at the helm, you’ll know you’re getting an honest and ethical opinion/vote. That matters a lot to me.
Adele Buswell? Sorry? That has to do with you losing to Abbott how? Did I miss something there?
Peter J. Nicol@2026
The Result of Greens dealing with Liberals 🙂
[you will get NBN, no filter, mining tax, better environment, what’s your problem?]
None of this will happen. The Libs will get those Indies into the fold quicker than you can say ‘pork-barrel’ and if the greens hold up too much in the senate Abbott will go DD (which Rudd should’ve done) and wipe you out. They left you alone this time because you were useful to them.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2028
The technical term for the above is playing you like a violin 🙂
Kezza: Kruddy’s lack of guts to go to a DD has cost him bad.
The ETS was a sham policy tho. I am undecided as to the wisdom of the Greens opposing it in the Senate…
Frank, I had fun “undermining” Crean today in the cold too.
You can take some of the credit for this.
Late today, one of your HTV volunteers (all of whom were very polite) was singled out by a Gillard fan because he was asian. She did not look like a lib, I grew up in this area. Didn’t even care that the guy was ALP. Single mum I’d say, pretty angry too. She started yelling at us from 50 paces.
The ALP has an image problem. Frank, you continue to perpetuate this.
One nice thing was to see many laughs and smiles for the sex party!
ok Frank, understandable, easy eror.
Too drained to sleep. Well done being a member and htving. Are the greens naive or what?
Frank: You’ve lost the plot with the Troy Carles thing. So totally peripheral to the point in question.
Tell me why your rabble lost (and you sure as shit didn’t win) to Abbott again? Tell me how the greens made you lose, what is it?, 15 (albeit notional) seats?
To Tony Workchoices Abbott?
Weak as piss.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2032
VERY Naive – and not very loyal to their helpers – on our booth the sole Greens P{erson had to leave at 3pm – he rung for a replacement – they didn’t even bother to return his call – my Booth Captain kindly offered to had out the Greens HTV Cards as well as the ALP ones.
Puff, ever considered that many libs want these things?
Frank, have you ever considered the possibility that the Greens aren’t as far left as you think?
Peter J Nicol
If the ETS was a sham policy it deserved to be opposed. Labor carries on about it as if at least it was something – it was a nothing policy in the end, and propped up the major polluters to boot – and if the Greens had passed it, would have locked it in for whatever time.
Frank
Four words for you
Cheryl Kernot Gareth Evans
Frank, a lib at my booth handed them all out for half an hour. ALL party HTVs.
Thank your booth cap though.
kezza2@2036
at least Cheryl & Gareth were similar in political views.
Unlike Adele & Troy-)
[ever considered that many libs want these things?]
Then they wouldn’t be libs.
Kezza: “the road to hell is paved with good intentions” and alla that…
I hear what you are saying about the ETS, but consequences, consequences. Abbott and his lot may yet be occupying the treasury benches (as I’ve heard it said). I think that would be largely bad for the country.
Turnbull was a saner leader, but they got rid of him for having, ummm… sane policies…
Frank
And sexual attraction doesn’t cross the political divide?
You gotta lot to learn buddy.
It’s got nothing to do with Labor losing credibility. You did it to yourselves.
So Frank, I’m gonna take this one as a no-show, and take the win by default.
Unless you actually are prepared to answer why your lot stuffed up so very very greatly, and may have yet put Abbott and co back into power?
I am trying to work out why it is all Adele Carles fault… care to enlighten me again? She cost you 15 seats? How?
[ever considered that many libs want these things?
Then they wouldn’t be libs.]
I don’t think you know libs very well. I am not one, but many people are.
You need to learn what makes them tick!
Another green mauling!
New thread.