Federal election 2010 live

12.01pm. Actually really close in Brisbane – LNP only 0.2 per cent ahead.

11.35pm. Talk is of the DLP winning the final Victorian Senate seat, but it seems to me Steve Fielding isn’t out of the hunt. The DLP currently has its nose just in front of Fielding at the fourth final count. But if Fielding gets ahead, he’ll take their place. It’s also possible neither will win, and the last seat will go Labor or Liberal. What we’re sure of is two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens.

10.50pm. It’s been put to me that Labor seriously think they can cut a deal with the conservative independents in which Bob Katter becomes Speaker, because a) they wouldn’t want the double dissolution that would inevitably occur before too long under a Coalition minority government, and b) because Labor could argue they are better placed to deal with a Labor-Greens Senate.

10.23pm. When I compared those SA Senate results with the House figures, I recognised Bob Day probably wouldn’t stay ahead of the third Liberal at the second last count – and indeed, he’s already fallen behind. Likely final result: Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.

10.18pm. Looking grim for Wilson Tuckey – Nationals well clear of Labor in second place, only a 4.5 per cent gap to close over Tuckey on Labor preferences which I presume they’ll get.

10.12pm. Current SA Senate projection from ABC has Bob Day of Family First winning a seat: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens, 1 Family First. Like the 2007 result, except with Family First in place of Xenophon. However, I should stress that early Senate projections can be wonky.

10.10pm. Alexander Downer and Bruce Hawker seem to know things the ABC computer doesn’t – the latter has Labor swing in Canning at 1.5 per cent, 2.8 per cent short of what they need.

10.03pm. Corangamite souring for Labor: now 50.0-50.0. Boothby now back as undecided with Liberal lead of 0.5 per cent.

9.57pm. None of the Perth marginal seats coming home for Labor.

9.53pm. And if you happened to see me on Sky News this evening, I do realise Neville Bonner was a Lib rather than a Nat.

9.52pm. Soon as I’d finished telling News Radio Wilkie would win Denison, Mark Arbib came on saying he thought different.

9.24pm. ABC computer calls Canning for Liberal.

9.23pm. ABC says Liberals have pulled ahead in Hasluck.

9.18pm. Antony hints Labor’s 0.5 per cent lead in Hasluck will widen as the next booths report two-party counts. However, it’s looking like a win there would be against a metropolitan trend. Don’t put any stock in ABC Stirling figures – obviously a gremlin.

9.14pm. 13.6 per cent swing to Labor in Stirling? I confidently predict that one will iron out.

9.12pm. Labor 0.4 per cent ahead in Hasluck after 6.1 per cent counted.

8.57pm. ABC computer calls Robertson for Labor.

8.55pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.

8.53pm. ABC computer calls La Trobe for Labor.

8.50pm. I’m wondering if the Liberals ran some sort of awareness raising campaign in Denison explaining the virtues of voting for somebody else.

8.49pm. Stephen Smith sounding vaguely encouraged about Canning.

8.30pm. As you’ve all no doubt just learned, Andrew Wilkie might pull off an extraordinary win in Denison.

8.25pm. Christopher Pyne retains Sturt with swing of over 2 per cent.

8.23pm. ABC computer calls Corangamite and Deakin for Labor.

8.21pm. ABC calls Brisbane, Dawson and Longman for LNP.

8.16pm. Warren Entsch no doubt correct to talk of heartening swings to him in remote communities. These booths swung against the Liberals by up to 30 per cent when he retired in 2007.

8.12pm. Aston firming for Liberals. Huge swing in Wentworth to Turnbull, now the proud owner of a double-digit margin.

8.10pm. Last Senate seat in SA likely to be close race between Labor and the Greens; Liberals probably good for three seats.

8.08pm. Labor vote in Victoria right on three quotas, so Greens unlikely for Senate despite high statewide vote: probably 3 Labor, 3 Coalition.

8.07pm. Drop in Labor vote in NSW leaves Lee Rhiannon a big chance for the Senate.

7.58pm. Liberal swing in Lindsay has come in from 7.4 per cent to 6.9 per cent; Labor needs it to come down to 6.3 per cent.

7.53pm. ABC computer calls Bonner for LNP.

7.52pm. Bad sign for Labor that Stephen Smith is hanging hope on Hasluck and Swan.

7.51pm. Robertson has stayed lineball.

7.47pm. A very sharp PB commenter projects 75-76 seats for the Coalition.

7.42pm. Small swing to Liberals in Sturt.

7.41pm. 2.4 per cent counted in Boothby, 1.5 per cent swing to Labor, slightly short of 2.4 per cent required.

7.39pm. Labor ahead in Longman too – situation looking slightly less appalling for them in Queensland.

7.38pm. Moreton called for Labor too – some of Labor’s worst losses are subsiding.

7.37. Petrie called for Labor.

7.35pm. Scare apparently passing in Banks also, but ABC TV tells us Labor are behind in Lindsay. Antony says Labor ahead in Aston.

7.32pm. Scares for Labor in Blair and Capricornia seem to be passing. ABC computer not yet giving away quite a few Liberal seats in Victoria, but Labor only ahead in La Trobe and winning in McEwen.

7.29pm. ABC computer calls Bennelong for Liberal.

7.27pm. Banks would be a bolter – Stephen Smith sounding almost defeated in his call for WA voters to get their act together with half an hour to go.

7.25pm. Labor ahead in Petrie.

7.25pm. Page called for Labor.

7.25pm. Labor back in front in Moreton.

7.24pm. Lower than expected swing in Macarthur – Libs only just in front.

7.23pm. ABC computer calls Forde for LNP.

7.22pm. Labor only “ahead” in Capricornia – 9.0 per cent swing with 10 per cent counted.

7.21pm. Little doubt it seems about Eden-Monaro and Melbourne.

7.20pm. Stephen Smith encouraged by 1 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.

7.18pm. Coalition “ahead” in too many Queensland seats for Labor’s comfort: Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Moreton.

7.18pm. Flynn and Leichhardt first gains called for Coalition.

7.17pm. ABC computer calls Dobell for Labor.

7.17pm. Liberals slightly ahead in Corangamite; Stephen Smith sounding a bit less confident than before, but still confident.

7.16pm. ABC computer says LNP “ahead” in Bonner and Brisbane.

7.14pm. ABC computer results lagging far behind television. From the latter, 10.7 per cent counted, Labor 0.6 per cent ahead.

7.11pm. Antony reckons Labor “ahead” in La Trobe.

7.09pm. Take it to the bank that Graham Richardson knows what’s going on: he says Labor are a “reasonable chance of delivering a very small victory”.

7.05pm. Big count in Blair: Labor hanging on.

7.03pm. Nick Minchin was sounding confident about Brisbane, but the swing on the ABC computer is only 2.8 per cent.

7.01pm. Labor looking good in McEwen.

7.01pm. Mounting trouble for Labor in Queensland.

7.00pm. Consistent swing to Labor in Tasmania – worth nothing to them.

6.53pm. Big swing in Blair – lineball.

6.53pm. Braddon called for Labor.

6.52pm. ABC computer has “LNP ahead” in Brisbane.

6.50pm. Solid swing to Labor holding in Braddon.

6.49pm. George Brandis expects current 6 per cent swing in Queensland “will come back a bit”.

6.48pm. 6 per cent swing in Queensland, but mostly from country areas.

6.25pm. Stephen Smith confident Labor will hold Corangamite.

6.05pm. Polling booths have closed. Live blogging of the type site regulars are familiar with on state election night will be conducted, and a CoverIt Live chat room facility featuring myself and other Crikey types will be added at 6.30pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,045 comments on “Federal election 2010 live”

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  1. [What John Howard did as Treasure in 1982 is historical fact BUT it is history – 30 years ago – a lot of water under the bridge. Get over it – if you haven’t it is your problem.]

    No problems here, thank you. It’s not a matter of needing to “get over” anything. I’m simply relating the factual record of Liberal economic management (mismanagement). Liberals always hate being reminded of this, I’ve noticed, so seek to change the subject or invalidate it by saying, “Oh, but that’s ancient history” and “get over it”. Well, sorry, facts are facts. The Liberal economic record IS THEIR RECORD. I know why they want to run from it, becuause the facts and record contradict the Liberal SPIN about them being the “better economic managers”. They’re NOT the better economic managers. When in office during a severe global downturn they give us the Howard Recession. When in office during a double boom (global boom + mining boom) as under PM Howard, they fritter away the proceeds, leave a structural budget deficit, enormous trade and foreign debt, steadily rising inflation and interest rates, and infrastructure falling to pieces through neglect.

    If Labor’s record were even half as bad as that, the Liberals would never stop reminding them (and everybody in the country) about it. The Liberals would never “get over it” (to use your words) or stop rubbing it in Labor’s and the electorate’s face. So suck it up.

  2. labor have really f@cked themselves re asylum seekers. if they move left, they will probably lose lindsay and what’s left in WA. and moving left doesn’t even guarantee that they’ll retrive those voters who went to the greens

  3. Starting with 88 notional seats, it is clear to me that the ALP have lost 16 to the Coalition (Bennelong, Gilmore, Mac x2 in NSW, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichardt & Longman in QLD, Solomon in NT, and Hasluck + Swann in WA), and Melbourne to the Greens. They have won McEwen in Vic… the net result of all this is 72.

    Best they can possibly do from there is win LaTRobe and hold Denison – ie 73 – with the O’Connor Nat sitting on the x-b… that’s 73(ALP)-3(IND)-1(GRN)-1(WA NAT)-72(COAL)

    In this result, the ALP hold onto ALL of Corangamite, Lindsay, Robertson, Moreton.

    They are favourite to do so, but not to hold Denison. Means 72-4-1-(1-72) currently the most likely result?

    Will then come down to who can be convinced to be Speaker!

    The best stability in that situation I can think of is an ALP-GRN coalition (factor in the Senate) with Katter as speaker and needing 2 votes in the Reps from Wilkie/Oakshott/Windsor?

    If the Coalition can get to 73 exc O’Connor, then they are favoured to form a minority govt?

    That’s how marginal it is. I think the odds favour the Coalition to sneak at least one of the 5 possible toss-ups still in play?

    NSW 1991 anyone?! Hopefully with Turnbull playing the role of Fahey! Gilliard as Carr, I am infinitely less confident about…

  4. Ty – It really doesn’t have to wegde them as an issue.

    They should accept the Narau option and require Narau to sign the Refugee Convention. Yes the Left may be unhappy but then what the Government could do is focus on ensuring that the process is streamlined and ran in a manner that is timely and humanly.

  5. [Has there been any discussion around Grayndler?

    I fear that it may be lost to the Greens as well!


    The Greens are outpolling the Libs and, from what I can find, the Libs are preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor.]

    Not every Lib voter will follow that how-to-vote card though. Most will, but most likely enough won’t that Albanese will get home with a margin over the Green of not much.

    Compare Melbourne 2007: Libs preferenced Bandt but c.17% of Lib preferences still went to Labor. A similar flow to Albanese in Grayndler puts him up to about 51.

  6. the greens are sucking voters and votes away from the labor base, so they’re actually weakening labor’s capacity to win in its own right, which, in turn, means that the coalition becomes the only party that can conceivably win a majority to govern on its own. why does the left side of politics always destroy itself?

    because the greens are a progressive party, it means that they will only appeal to smaller subset of people. if they wish to incorporate the centre of politics, they must expand there policy range. however, this means that they are required to compromise some of their principles? is this possible?

  7. [Starting with 88 notional seats, it is clear to me that the ALP have lost 16 to the Coalition (Bennelong, Gilmore, Mac x2 in NSW, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichardt & Longman in QLD, Solomon in NT, and Hasluck + Swann in WA), and Melbourne to the Greens. They have won McEwen in Vic… the net result of all this is 72.]

    Hasluck (50.56% to Coalition) probably shouldn’t be written off as a definite loss just yet, and Brisbane (50.18% to Coalition) definitely shouldn’t.

    I give Labor not much chance of holding Denison by the way.

  8. Aah sweet anticipation of months and years of hearing the dulcet tones of Christopher Pyne espousing learnedly on education policy. My heart swells.

  9. [All of this says she has very poor political judgment, and the elction campaign shows she has has poor judgement or is easily influenced – if she had serious backbone she would have said , I an deputy leader, I will deal with Kevin]

    At that stage he WASN’T LEADER. He had RESIGNED the leadership. The position was open. Julia the deputy was convinced to take it. As the next most capable after KR (IMO) she had no choice, and was the natural, obvious choice for caucus.

  10. Labor is a big chance of scraping back.

    We win Corangamite and Lindsay, getting to 72. This should be possible with the machine of incumbency for pre poll etc.

    Then look at the ABC’s progressive preference count – we are 850 behind in Brisbane and just 370 behind in Hasluck. Both are definitely winnable again with the benefits of incumbency: the vote counted in Brisbane is only 70%

    We just need 73 for the moral argument of 73 v 72 to kick in. So either Brisbane or Hasluck will do. The ABC computer was giving away seats far too early tonight.

  11. One side note based on the Victorian results I am inclinde to think that the Brumby Government will be returned although the Greens would be a real chance of winning up to three seats.

    nite all we need a little hoilday before firing up for the State poll which is just three months away

  12. I take it you have lost your umlauts. Are you suggesting Hanseatic heritage? There were some good English pirates on Öland as well.

  13. Bullshit – My Bropther in Law was handing out ALP HTV cards at either Mosman Park Primary School , or at Cottesloe Primary School (not 100% where)

    Ms Bishop said Coalition policy did take climate change seriously, but Labor was “missing in action” in her electorate after reports its candidate was overseas yesterday.

    “There were no Curtin ALP volunteers, no how to vote cards and we were told voters were fishing in bins to find them,” she said.


  14. BTW, both myself and Pollbludger were thanked by Pearce ALP Candidate Bill Leadbetter for assisting in the campaign – me for posting here- and of course relaying all the lastest polling as soon as it came out 🙂

    I was referred to as “the lurker” 🙂

  15. Good job Frank. Sadly we must regroup and keep those Tories held to account. The ALP must play hard ball and grab government, do not let the other side win any moral high ground. They did not win either. I lived through the recent UK elelction and it pissed me off that the British Labour Party wimped out of trying to hold onto government.

  16. My prediction… the Liberals form a minority government with independent support, call a double dissolution within the next 8-16 months, and win overwhelmingly.

  17. Seriously, if the ALP can scrape to 73, does anyone think a formal coalition between the ALP and Greens is feasible? Or will I get drummed outta here for such heresy?

  18. [I lived through the recent UK elelction and it pissed me off that the British Labour Party wimped out of trying to hold onto government.]

    The situations are totally different. The Labour government in the UK was in power for 13 years, that country had a first-past-the-post system, and the Tories won 49 more sears and about 7% more of the vote. By comparison, we don’t know which Australian party will have more seats, and the ALP likely won the 2PP.

  19. Okay, looking at the updated polling data I believe Lindsay and Corangamite are relatively firm for Labor

    That put’s us at 72 seats.

    Wilkie and Brandt are definite Labor onsiders, so we’re at 74.

    Brisbane and Hasluck are too close to call, especially with postals due in. Beattie believes Brisbane is winnable.

    Oakeshott is far more likely to support Labor, he’s a progressive and has had discussions in the past with Kevin Rudd about the hung parliament situation.


    Just need Tony Windsor to back em and we’re set.

    Tony Windsor has said in the past that he’d look at health, broadband and sustainability policy to decide.

    Sounds good to me.


    If Brisbane or Hasluck come onside then we’re looking even better.

    Hey, if we get both, then we’re sitting on 76 with just the Greens. Wouldn’t that be sweet.

  20. And yes, Labor would definitely work with the Greens. I’d like to see some real action on climate change. And high speed rail. Oh awesomeness.

  21. [ William Bowe

    If Steve Fielding gets ahead of DLP at count 23 – and he’s only 0.07% behind – he might still win http://bit.ly/dlymB5 #ausvotes ]

    William do not trust Antony Greens Calculator. There are many votes missing Look at the % counted. It does not include the BTL votes.

    Yes there are issues with the way the Senate is counted (You need to look at the system of Segmentation AKA Queensland 2007). Also remember that the Party ticket vote is inflated in the calculation of the Surplus Transfer Value. The Senate count is not proportional. It is Semi Proportional Only.

    What is disappointing, (no doubts thanks to Antony Green) the AEC has not published polling place results for the Senate.

    I trust the AEC will produce a reconciliation report before counting preference votes. It is important that we reconcile the count so as to ensure there is not a repeat of Victoria Western Metro 2006 where votes went missing between Count A and Count B. Bundles counted twice or votes removed from the count.

  22. [the greens are sucking voters and votes away from the labor base, so they’re actually weakening labor’s capacity to win in its own right, which, in turn, means that the coalition becomes the only party that can conceivably win a majority to govern on its own. why does the left side of politics always destroy itself?]

    With the exception of Melbourne The Greens are not sucking votes form Labor. They are feeding Labor. Just as the Democrates Feed the Greens.

  23. What the Greens were doing was generating Public Funding dollars for themsleves and reducing the amount paid to the ALP

  24. Lower house independents would have to support an ALP-GRN coalition, given their numbers in the senate and supposed mindfulness of stable government – surely… in fact, it sounds like Oakeshott is calling for exactly that coalition

  25. 6PR has the lunatics who wanted to vote One Nation – an d the host was saying that the fine for failing to vote is $20, which rises to $50 if challenged in the courts.

    Hello idiot – if you have a legitimate reasson, you get the fine waived.

  26. JJ – Good proposition you have made about blogging. I read on a site “in a battle of wills against the unarmed…..”…… we win!

    To all those who are still blaming Rudd, you got nothing.

    Your party has lefties and rednecks and is doomed to fail unless you compete with the libs demographic, and listen to those in the party with some common sense. I saw this disunity in a disgraceful way today. I won’t repeat, but it was extremely racist. I guess she could have been a fib.

    I don’t think that the Greens will lose next time. We don’t have that kind of disunity. The Greens will ensure that the best minds are working on all policies.

    If we are in deep with environmental issues, don’t blame the Greens for how much it costs to fix. People should have listened long ago. Jonsson could shed light on how badly fjord ecosystems were damaged by acid rain.

    ALP, the mid ground is the responsibility of both of our parties to win over. We must do this with education. We share a base who have similar values. We usually don’t sound like scrooges or rednecks, although there are quite a few exceptions to the latter on PB sometimes. I am sure a few ALP have been a bit disappointed at how dismissive to the point of rude some ALP posters have been here.

    Soft lefties will hold to the truce by discussing issues properly. This means facts. This means etiquette. This means recognising each other and supporting each other in blogs. Libs will try and be nice for a refreshing change. Don’t have a go at them – these are the ones who need educating. Some of them voted for Kev.

    Basically JJ, we don’t need a site, just an attitude. You don’t want blogs that shut off opposition to the point that they make their own circles. This will swing no one.

    More and more people will get online and see what the average highly informed blogger thinks. Make sure it reads well. Capitalism has proven to benefit only a few. People here think socialism is a dirty word. How about Compassionism? Gee, wouldn’t that confuse the Sydney westies. We can define it as a balance between the philosophies.

    I think Latham probably helped the ALP in the end by stopping rednecks voting lib.

    Libs, one more shot – you would have me getting ripped off by telstra for my cable. The libs in their absolute stupidity should have set things up properly to start with. It would have been easier if telstra was public still.

    Infrastructure like the NBN need to be properly managed public assets. What I have “saved” by having competition for my gas and power is lost by paying the companies to market me. This is counter-productive, and extremely annoying.

    Any lib who wants a flamin can try to prove to me that competition with utils is good.

    We export the profits from telecomms too much. We should only have paid for good infrastructure and kept it public operated. Mobile phones should have been provided for on public networks. How bad are some mobile phone companies reception? And expensive! We get shafted badly here. Bloody Howard. Sold us out. Did nothing ambitious except deceive us that he was doing the right thing. No infrastructure. Bleak vision. Made us look like bullies in Iraq. Cranky old warmonger.

    Libs are knobs. They just don’t get it. Their 50% today is like a fluffed up cat. It’s as big as they get unless our side can’t sort this mess out. The public service will never trust them.

  27. Radguy, you are wasting your time. Australia does not want what you are proposing. They want Howard and Abbott. A progressive truly Liberal democracy is too much hard work. We are a bunch of racist, xenophobic, sexist willfully ignorant selfish narcissists. Any society willing to vote in Abbott is not worth your time and energy.

  28. Looking forward to seeing Opposition Leader Wayne Swan. Labor were totally destroyed in WA and just to make things sweeter, failed WA Labor state minister Alannah MacTiernan has failed to win Canning despite your lots best efforts. Liberal has demolished Labor on the primary vote across the board.

  29. DemocracyATwork
    [What the Greens were doing was generating Public Funding dollars for themsleves and reducing the amount paid to the ALP]

    I cottoned on to that early. How much blood money do you think they will get? (blood money? Try asylum seekers who will get sent to Nauru by Abbott.)

  30. [What the Greens were doing was generating Public Funding dollars for themsleves and reducing the amount paid to the ALP]
    Money going to a better place! ALP wasted so much cash. Greens will take no responsibility for the big ALP blunder. Redneck influence is to blame. They’re the ones who voted against the ALP, along with miner sympathisers.

    Kev would have won (just) with the full support of the ALP. The ALP took their advantage for granted, deciding instead to play internal party games. Knobs.

  31. ALP leaked heaps of votes to The Greens and the LNP – They can only blame themselves for that and the decisions they’ve made over the last few months. The other big winner yesterday was informal votes. The sentiments I draw from it is – people were looking to dump a protest vote somewhere, lots of green voters voted for Rudd last time, lots of liberal voted for Rudd last time, and there’s a higher than normal number of people that are disengaged generally.

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