Federal election 2010 live

2,045 comments on “Federal election 2010 live”

1. [What John Howard did as Treasure in 1982 is historical fact BUT it is history – 30 years ago – a lot of water under the bridge. Get over it – if you haven’t it is your problem.]

   No problems here, thank you. It’s not a matter of needing to “get over” anything. I’m simply relating the factual record of Liberal economic management (mismanagement). Liberals always hate being reminded of this, I’ve noticed, so seek to change the subject or invalidate it by saying, “Oh, but that’s ancient history” and “get over it”. Well, sorry, facts are facts. The Liberal economic record IS THEIR RECORD. I know why they want to run from it, becuause the facts and record contradict the Liberal SPIN about them being the “better economic managers”. They’re NOT the better economic managers. When in office during a severe global downturn they give us the Howard Recession. When in office during a double boom (global boom + mining boom) as under PM Howard, they fritter away the proceeds, leave a structural budget deficit, enormous trade and foreign debt, steadily rising inflation and interest rates, and infrastructure falling to pieces through neglect.

   If Labor’s record were even half as bad as that, the Liberals would never stop reminding them (and everybody in the country) about it. The Liberals would never “get over it” (to use your words) or stop rubbing it in Labor’s and the electorate’s face. So suck it up.

2. Jo

   my niece is ten times the man you wish you could be

   try simrasan oneday

   qed you will know what it takes to doth the crown

   🙁

3. labor have really f@cked themselves re asylum seekers. if they move left, they will probably lose lindsay and what’s left in WA. and moving left doesn’t even guarantee that they’ll retrive those voters who went to the greens

4. Starting with 88 notional seats, it is clear to me that the ALP have lost 16 to the Coalition (Bennelong, Gilmore, Mac x2 in NSW, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichardt & Longman in QLD, Solomon in NT, and Hasluck + Swann in WA), and Melbourne to the Greens. They have won McEwen in Vic… the net result of all this is 72.

   Best they can possibly do from there is win LaTRobe and hold Denison – ie 73 – with the O’Connor Nat sitting on the x-b… that’s 73(ALP)-3(IND)-1(GRN)-1(WA NAT)-72(COAL)

   In this result, the ALP hold onto ALL of Corangamite, Lindsay, Robertson, Moreton.

   They are favourite to do so, but not to hold Denison. Means 72-4-1-(1-72) currently the most likely result?

   Will then come down to who can be convinced to be Speaker!

   The best stability in that situation I can think of is an ALP-GRN coalition (factor in the Senate) with Katter as speaker and needing 2 votes in the Reps from Wilkie/Oakshott/Windsor?

   If the Coalition can get to 73 exc O’Connor, then they are favoured to form a minority govt?

   That’s how marginal it is. I think the odds favour the Coalition to sneak at least one of the 5 possible toss-ups still in play?

   NSW 1991 anyone?! Hopefully with Turnbull playing the role of Fahey! Gilliard as Carr, I am infinitely less confident about…

5. Ty – It really doesn’t have to wegde them as an issue.

   They should accept the Narau option and require Narau to sign the Refugee Convention. Yes the Left may be unhappy but then what the Government could do is focus on ensuring that the process is streamlined and ran in a manner that is timely and humanly.

6. I think the ALP can claim La Trobe.

7. Gus

   Me thinketh, you haveth, too much to drinketh,

8. [Has there been any discussion around Grayndler?

   I fear that it may be lost to the Greens as well!

   http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-121.htm

   The Greens are outpolling the Libs and, from what I can find, the Libs are preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor.]

   Not every Lib voter will follow that how-to-vote card though. Most will, but most likely enough won’t that Albanese will get home with a margin over the Green of not much.

   Compare Melbourne 2007: Libs preferenced Bandt but c.17% of Lib preferences still went to Labor. A similar flow to Albanese in Grayndler puts him up to about 51.

9. Jon

   methinks you have never been to svenska

   esap in may

10. ps jonnny

    be V careful

    we own skona

    😉

11. the greens are sucking voters and votes away from the labor base, so they’re actually weakening labor’s capacity to win in its own right, which, in turn, means that the coalition becomes the only party that can conceivably win a majority to govern on its own. why does the left side of politics always destroy itself?

    because the greens are a progressive party, it means that they will only appeal to smaller subset of people. if they wish to incorporate the centre of politics, they must expand there policy range. however, this means that they are required to compromise some of their principles? is this possible?

12. Gus

    Happy to prove you wrong. How is your Osterlen geography?

    Btw, what’s your poison> Glenfiddich here.

13. [Starting with 88 notional seats, it is clear to me that the ALP have lost 16 to the Coalition (Bennelong, Gilmore, Mac x2 in NSW, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichardt & Longman in QLD, Solomon in NT, and Hasluck + Swann in WA), and Melbourne to the Greens. They have won McEwen in Vic… the net result of all this is 72.]

    Hasluck (50.56% to Coalition) probably shouldn’t be written off as a definite loss just yet, and Brisbane (50.18% to Coalition) definitely shouldn’t.

    I give Labor not much chance of holding Denison by the way.

14. also

    Oland

    Eland

    and most of skona

    plus we shear the sheeps for OLAF

    dare you f*** with us-pissant

    I thought not

15. Aah sweet anticipation of months and years of hearing the dulcet tones of Christopher Pyne espousing learnedly on education policy. My heart swells.

16. [All of this says she has very poor political judgment, and the elction campaign shows she has has poor judgement or is easily influenced – if she had serious backbone she would have said , I an deputy leader, I will deal with Kevin]

    At that stage he WASN’T LEADER. He had RESIGNED the leadership. The position was open. Julia the deputy was convinced to take it. As the next most capable after KR (IMO) she had no choice, and was the natural, obvious choice for caucus.

17. JONSSON

    F***- with royalty at your peril

    YOU HAFF BEEN WARNED- PISSANT

18. Gus

    You speaketh like a pre-1658 Dane (…we own Skane…). We do miss you though.

19. Labor is a big chance of scraping back.

    We win Corangamite and Lindsay, getting to 72. This should be possible with the machine of incumbency for pre poll etc.

    Then look at the ABC’s progressive preference count – we are 850 behind in Brisbane and just 370 behind in Hasluck. Both are definitely winnable again with the benefits of incumbency: the vote counted in Brisbane is only 70%

    We just need 73 for the moral argument of 73 v 72 to kick in. So either Brisbane or Hasluck will do. The ABC computer was giving away seats far too early tonight.

20. Jon

    obvious you are at best dane at worst simmmardian

    pls dont waste your heritage

    🙁

21. Hero of a bleak night? Unquestionably Deb O’Neil in Robertson.

22. One side note based on the Victorian results I am inclinde to think that the Brumby Government will be returned although the Greens would be a real chance of winning up to three seats.

    nite all we need a little hoilday before firing up for the State poll which is just three months away

23. Incredible

    the danegild runs deep

    Boer is our natural allly

24. I take it you have lost your umlauts. Are you suggesting Hanseatic heritage? There were some good English pirates on Öland as well.

25. Bullshit – My Bropther in Law was handing out ALP HTV cards at either Mosman Park Primary School , or at Cottesloe Primary School (not 100% where)

    Ms Bishop said Coalition policy did take climate change seriously, but Labor was “missing in action” in her electorate after reports its candidate was overseas yesterday.

    “There were no Curtin ALP volunteers, no how to vote cards and we were told voters were fishing in bins to find them,” she said.

     http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/how-the-greens-cut-into-safe-seats-of-bishop-smith/story-e6frg13u-1225908308603 

26. BTW, both myself and Pollbludger were thanked by Pearce ALP Candidate Bill Leadbetter for assisting in the campaign – me for posting here- and of course relaying all the lastest polling as soon as it came out 🙂

    I was referred to as “the lurker” 🙂

27. Good job Frank. Sadly we must regroup and keep those Tories held to account. The ALP must play hard ball and grab government, do not let the other side win any moral high ground. They did not win either. I lived through the recent UK elelction and it pissed me off that the British Labour Party wimped out of trying to hold onto government.

28. [http://twitter.com/frankscan65]

    teh gold medal of the ALP campaign

    YOU ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

29. My prediction… the Liberals form a minority government with independent support, call a double dissolution within the next 8-16 months, and win overwhelmingly.

30. Seriously, if the ALP can scrape to 73, does anyone think a formal coalition between the ALP and Greens is feasible? Or will I get drummed outta here for such heresy?

31. tokenyank, with who has their leader at that election?

32. [I lived through the recent UK elelction and it pissed me off that the British Labour Party wimped out of trying to hold onto government.]

    The situations are totally different. The Labour government in the UK was in power for 13 years, that country had a first-past-the-post system, and the Tories won 49 more sears and about 7% more of the vote. By comparison, we don’t know which Australian party will have more seats, and the ALP likely won the 2PP.

33. Okay, looking at the updated polling data I believe Lindsay and Corangamite are relatively firm for Labor

    That put’s us at 72 seats.

    Wilkie and Brandt are definite Labor onsiders, so we’re at 74.

    Brisbane and Hasluck are too close to call, especially with postals due in. Beattie believes Brisbane is winnable.

    Oakeshott is far more likely to support Labor, he’s a progressive and has had discussions in the past with Kevin Rudd about the hung parliament situation.

    75.

    Just need Tony Windsor to back em and we’re set.

    Tony Windsor has said in the past that he’d look at health, broadband and sustainability policy to decide.

    Sounds good to me.

    76.

    If Brisbane or Hasluck come onside then we’re looking even better.

    Hey, if we get both, then we’re sitting on 76 with just the Greens. Wouldn’t that be sweet.

34. And yes, Labor would definitely work with the Greens. I’d like to see some real action on climate change. And high speed rail. Oh awesomeness.

35. [ William Bowe

    If Steve Fielding gets ahead of DLP at count 23 – and he’s only 0.07% behind – he might still win http://bit.ly/dlymB5 #ausvotes ]

    William do not trust Antony Greens Calculator. There are many votes missing Look at the % counted. It does not include the BTL votes.

    Yes there are issues with the way the Senate is counted (You need to look at the system of Segmentation AKA Queensland 2007). Also remember that the Party ticket vote is inflated in the calculation of the Surplus Transfer Value. The Senate count is not proportional. It is Semi Proportional Only.

    What is disappointing, (no doubts thanks to Antony Green) the AEC has not published polling place results for the Senate.

    I trust the AEC will produce a reconciliation report before counting preference votes. It is important that we reconcile the count so as to ensure there is not a repeat of Victoria Western Metro 2006 where votes went missing between Count A and Count B. Bundles counted twice or votes removed from the count.

36. [The independents won’t necessarily side with the party that has the most seats or votes in the lower house, rather they would look at who could best deliver stable government “taking into consideration the make-up of the Senate”, Mr Oakeshott said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/labor-braces-for-the-backlash/story-e6frfllr-1225908040425#ixzz0xGNFyZJA

    Sounding better and better for our side.

37. [the greens are sucking voters and votes away from the labor base, so they’re actually weakening labor’s capacity to win in its own right, which, in turn, means that the coalition becomes the only party that can conceivably win a majority to govern on its own. why does the left side of politics always destroy itself?]

    With the exception of Melbourne The Greens are not sucking votes form Labor. They are feeding Labor. Just as the Democrates Feed the Greens.

38. What the Greens were doing was generating Public Funding dollars for themsleves and reducing the amount paid to the ALP

39. Lower house independents would have to support an ALP-GRN coalition, given their numbers in the senate and supposed mindfulness of stable government – surely… in fact, it sounds like Oakeshott is calling for exactly that coalition

40. Their ABC24 replaying the Australian Story featuring Rudd the Nephew.

    This monday it’s a feature on Paul Howes.

    Where are the profiles of the faceless men in the Liberal Party ?

41. 6PR has the lunatics who wanted to vote One Nation – an d the host was saying that the fine for failing to vote is $20, which rises to $50 if challenged in the courts.

    Hello idiot – if you have a legitimate reasson, you get the fine waived.

42. Its good to see these Labor clowns will be returning to the opposition benches where they belong.

43. Bree@1992

    Its good to see these Labor clowns will be returning to the opposition benches where they belong.

    Chickens – Hatch 🙂

44. JJ – Good proposition you have made about blogging. I read on a site “in a battle of wills against the unarmed…..”…… we win!

    To all those who are still blaming Rudd, you got nothing.

    Your party has lefties and rednecks and is doomed to fail unless you compete with the libs demographic, and listen to those in the party with some common sense. I saw this disunity in a disgraceful way today. I won’t repeat, but it was extremely racist. I guess she could have been a fib.

    I don’t think that the Greens will lose next time. We don’t have that kind of disunity. The Greens will ensure that the best minds are working on all policies.

    If we are in deep with environmental issues, don’t blame the Greens for how much it costs to fix. People should have listened long ago. Jonsson could shed light on how badly fjord ecosystems were damaged by acid rain.

    ALP, the mid ground is the responsibility of both of our parties to win over. We must do this with education. We share a base who have similar values. We usually don’t sound like scrooges or rednecks, although there are quite a few exceptions to the latter on PB sometimes. I am sure a few ALP have been a bit disappointed at how dismissive to the point of rude some ALP posters have been here.

    Soft lefties will hold to the truce by discussing issues properly. This means facts. This means etiquette. This means recognising each other and supporting each other in blogs. Libs will try and be nice for a refreshing change. Don’t have a go at them – these are the ones who need educating. Some of them voted for Kev.

    Basically JJ, we don’t need a site, just an attitude. You don’t want blogs that shut off opposition to the point that they make their own circles. This will swing no one.

    More and more people will get online and see what the average highly informed blogger thinks. Make sure it reads well. Capitalism has proven to benefit only a few. People here think socialism is a dirty word. How about Compassionism? Gee, wouldn’t that confuse the Sydney westies. We can define it as a balance between the philosophies.

    I think Latham probably helped the ALP in the end by stopping rednecks voting lib.

    Libs, one more shot – you would have me getting ripped off by telstra for my cable. The libs in their absolute stupidity should have set things up properly to start with. It would have been easier if telstra was public still.

    Infrastructure like the NBN need to be properly managed public assets. What I have “saved” by having competition for my gas and power is lost by paying the companies to market me. This is counter-productive, and extremely annoying.

    Any lib who wants a flamin can try to prove to me that competition with utils is good.

    We export the profits from telecomms too much. We should only have paid for good infrastructure and kept it public operated. Mobile phones should have been provided for on public networks. How bad are some mobile phone companies reception? And expensive! We get shafted badly here. Bloody Howard. Sold us out. Did nothing ambitious except deceive us that he was doing the right thing. No infrastructure. Bleak vision. Made us look like bullies in Iraq. Cranky old warmonger.

    Libs are knobs. They just don’t get it. Their 50% today is like a fluffed up cat. It’s as big as they get unless our side can’t sort this mess out. The public service will never trust them.

45. Radguy, you are wasting your time. Australia does not want what you are proposing. They want Howard and Abbott. A progressive truly Liberal democracy is too much hard work. We are a bunch of racist, xenophobic, sexist willfully ignorant selfish narcissists. Any society willing to vote in Abbott is not worth your time and energy.

46. Looking forward to seeing Opposition Leader Wayne Swan. Labor were totally destroyed in WA and just to make things sweeter, failed WA Labor state minister Alannah MacTiernan has failed to win Canning despite your lots best efforts. Liberal has demolished Labor on the primary vote across the board.

47. DemocracyATwork
    [What the Greens were doing was generating Public Funding dollars for themsleves and reducing the amount paid to the ALP]
    Yeah.

    I cottoned on to that early. How much blood money do you think they will get? (blood money? Try asylum seekers who will get sent to Nauru by Abbott.)

48. True Bree. I totally overestimated the Australian voter. Your lot didn’t.

49. [What the Greens were doing was generating Public Funding dollars for themsleves and reducing the amount paid to the ALP]
    Money going to a better place! ALP wasted so much cash. Greens will take no responsibility for the big ALP blunder. Redneck influence is to blame. They’re the ones who voted against the ALP, along with miner sympathisers.

    Kev would have won (just) with the full support of the ALP. The ALP took their advantage for granted, deciding instead to play internal party games. Knobs.

50. ALP leaked heaps of votes to The Greens and the LNP – They can only blame themselves for that and the decisions they’ve made over the last few months. The other big winner yesterday was informal votes. The sentiments I draw from it is – people were looking to dump a protest vote somewhere, lots of green voters voted for Rudd last time, lots of liberal voted for Rudd last time, and there’s a higher than normal number of people that are disengaged generally.

Comments are closed.