Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

News Radio reports the latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend, has Labor’s two-party lead leaping to 57.5-42.5. This series is traditionally favourable to Labor, but the lead recorded here is their highest since February. The Greens primary vote was 15.5 per cent, up 4.5 per cent, the highest ever recorded by Morgan (no other details available yet on the primary vote). Contrary to expectation, Morgan does not seem to have conducted a mid-week phone poll as it has been doing throughout the campaign so far.

UPDATE: Labor actually down a point on the primary vote from last week to 43 per cent, but the Coalition are down four to 37 per cent, making room for that Greens surge.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,198 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

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  1. Just Me@1048

    MickW

    DeBono is not the first person I would go to for a lecture on analysis of psychological style, something I actually know a bit about. I can tell you for a fact that his views are not taken seriously by mainstream psych researchers, and he has not made any noteworthy original contributions to the field. He is, frankly, a self promoting flyweight.

    Assuming that somebody sees the world in binary terms, is itself a form of binary thinking.

    Just because you (allegedly) support 30% of the left’s policy ideas, doesn’t mean you are not a partisan warrior for the right. In this modern era there is a lot of overlap.

    Lastly, as to your claim that you see things in grey, I merely point out your remarkably nuance-free rant on Labor that I quoted previously.

    Methinks you doth protest too much.

    Next he’ll be quoting Tony Robbins:

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyqNEC2roU 

    How apt, both Phoney Tony’s 🙂

  2. I don’t know what Meatchem is whinging about. Jon Faine had a community gatherign with all the political Parties including the Greens today. Faine deliberately asked the Greens supporters (about 50) who they were supporting and only a handful said they were backing the Libs.

  3. Tone has policies.

    I happen to have found out his boat people policy…

    it’s simple. He is going to have the ocean divided into a 10×10 grid. Then he is going to get the navy to randomly bombard different sections until they sink the boat people.

    Inhumane? Don’t worry, he has that covered. The boat people will be supplied with weapons of their own and will be given the opportunity to sink our fleet. Last one with their ships remaining wins.

  4. 1013
    Not bad points Mick. I’d agree that the level of personal debt (here, probably in US and most advanced economies) is very serious and will ultimately need to be addressed.

    The Abbott stuff about public debt is bunkum. Compared with other OECD countries, we’ve hardly got any. But private debt is another thing altogether.

    You’re right of course that Labor, while at least being a viable government, is a very long way away from addressing long-term issues. They do deserve some credit for the fiscal actions taken in the GFC. They had some luck there: a stable banking sector, a good economic bureaucracy, not all that much leverage in finance (except in super, which needs to be tackled very soon), and even (shudder) the earlier caution to debt of Howard-Costello.

    But they did take the bold direct action which saved small businesses from closing and many jobs. The worst damage in Australia was probably in things like inbound tourism because the demand from the rest of the world fell away under the GFC. Still, it was no mean feat. The hard-driving Rudd deserves most credit, but his methods possibly cost him his job.

    I think he was also the driver behind NBN, which will almost certainly help our businesses remain competitive. What a pity he faltered on ETS. I’m sure that will remain a priority, and an issue where we don’t wait for the rest of the world.

    We need to act, not just because we will have to, but because it will give us a headstart in preparing for the future on renewable energies. The rest of the world will act as the political pressure mounts. Gillard’s idea as a way of bringing people around to acceptance is not as silly as it first sounded.

    We still need a bit more vision, but we have some foundations.

  5. [TSOP

    so “battlelines” should be called “battleships”

    makes sense]

    You should see his economic policy. It involves buying properties and being arbitrarily sent to jail…

  6. [what have the pieces in monopoly have in relevance to the game?]

    dogs and cars make very competitive capitalists.

  7. After a family event I have finally caught up with all postings.

    In no particular order:

    Individual Seat Odds – MUCH smaller pools than the “election result” pool, hence much slower to respond to changes, and much more susceptible to manipulation by people who want to push their barrows about certain seats (shock, horror! party apparatchiks have been known to try to influence the betting odds by placing their own bets)

    Also, as someone else pointed out, those 2007 figures were from election eve – I think the election eve figures this time may be similarly accurate, more accurate than those today. If I remember rightly the “election result” odds just favored Labor more and more as the 2007 campaign went on.

    691 – Yes, rice uses a lot of water, but if you look at water per CALORIE of food produced I think cattle and sheep use more

    I think the centenary of the start of Burke and Wills expedition is next week (one white person – John King – did survive the trip up and back. What I’ve always found fascinating is that a mere thirteen years later they erected the overland telegraph from Adelaide to Darwin. Now that was forward thinking. Also there is some irony that after all this time, the world is connected by cables once more, because they can carry so much more data than wireless transmission via satellites.

  8. [i always get the hat.]

    Hats are like hawks in the market!

    Unfortunately though, if someone is gonna start up a ponzi scheme, chances are they will be a hat.

  9. I hope Boerwar is not offended, but I was concerned why Octi was wearing a sock.

    “A traveler was driving through Arkansas when he lost his way and got off the main highway. As he drove by, he saw rows and rows of pigsties and pigpens and pigs running in fields and pigs wallowing in mud. Suddenly, his eye caught something really strange. He did a double take, muttered to himself and then looked a third time. He wondered if he had seen correctly – it looked like a pig with a wooden leg!He found the lane to the farm and drove up into the farmyard, where he was met by the farmer. “Excuse me,” the traveler said. “I was just driving by and looking at all your pigs, and I noticed something that I just had to stop and ask about. Tell me, did I see right? Is there really a pig out there with a wooden leg?” The farmer smiled. “Oh, that would be old Caesar you saw. He`s the finest pig a man could ever hope to have – and smart! Well, let me tell you a little about that pig. You see that barge down there on the river? That`s a mining dredge, taking out platinum ore. Old Caesar sniffed out the vein and showed us how to set it up. Now that dredge brings me in about $120,000 every year.”There`s another thing, too, a little more personal. One night a couple of years ago I got to drinking and I guess I had more than I should have. I passed out drunk, fell down and knocked over a lamp. That started a fire in the house and old Caesar smelled the smoke. He came in the back door, got the wife and kid out, roused me up and got me out. “There is no question about it – that night old Caesar saved all our lives and you know that is not the sort of thing a man is going to forget too easily.””Why,” the traveler said, “this is all amazing! I have never heard of a pig like this before! This is fantastic! But tell me, how did he get that wooden leg? Was he in a wreck or something?”The farmer laughed and said, “Well, naturally, when you have a pig that smart, you don`t want to eat him all at one time!”

  10. Tomorrow’s OO:

    # australian

    Tamils heading for Canada: A SHIP full of Sri Lankan refugees was nearing Canada last night. http://bit.ly/d4GO3b less than a minute ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Sky attacks ABC for not showing forum: ABC news director Kate Torney thundered this week that Sky News was freezin… http://bit.ly/djCh1b less than a minute ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Councils call for slowdown in stimulus spending: LOCAL councils have sought a slowdown in the federal government’s… http://bit.ly/ahRMrC less than a minute ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Labor’s $334m to build trades: Apprentices in occupations with skills shortages will be offered a $1700 tax-exempt… http://bit.ly/bsWXfd 1 minute ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    $120m for schools technology: SCHOOLS would be able to apply for technology grants direct from a Coalition governm… http://bit.ly/bf2Exv 1 minute ago via twitterfeed

  11. I saw Andrew Robb today, and what struck me was how he was “verballing” the Government or Treasury as the only two possible sources of the “leak”. Now that he has asked the Federal Police to investigate he will shortly find out that they as police will not be nearly so ready to jump to this conclusion, and will certainly include the Opposition and their offices, and whoever they got to do their economic modelling in the list of “suspects” to be investigated.

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