Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

News Radio reports the latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend, has Labor’s two-party lead leaping to 57.5-42.5. This series is traditionally favourable to Labor, but the lead recorded here is their highest since February. The Greens primary vote was 15.5 per cent, up 4.5 per cent, the highest ever recorded by Morgan (no other details available yet on the primary vote). Contrary to expectation, Morgan does not seem to have conducted a mid-week phone poll as it has been doing throughout the campaign so far.

UPDATE: Labor actually down a point on the primary vote from last week to 43 per cent, but the Coalition are down four to 37 per cent, making room for that Greens surge.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,198 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

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  12. It almost goes without saying this is what will happen to the tory vote when they attempt to go to the people with no policies.

  15. Oh, What a load of shite. The polls that is.
    Repost:

    We were just having a discussion here about Turnballs. We thought that if the Rabbott won the election it would cement his authority & the Turnballs chance would never come. But, but after seeing the financial finesse of this group of nitwits we’re not so sure now.

  18. Its the vibe, William has pointed out that they inflate Labor’s 2PP by 3%, so its 54.5/45.5, still a very significant change from last poll and a big lead

  20. Note that this is the usual weekend face-to-face poll. The ones we’ve come to expect Channel Seven to break for us have been mid-week phone polls, but for some reason it looks like they haven’t done one this week.

  22. Two things:

    1. I severely doubt this result will happen on the night

    2. I’m looking forward with glee to the media digesting this and regurgitating it!

  23. jack the poll has just been released. how could you expect the betting to have already moved?

    and frank could you tweet that creep riley and ask him why he didnt carry it? I thought it strange that he referred to a hung parliament rather than a tone win. he must have seen this

  26. Not surprised at a swing to labor over the last week but this Morgan would seem to be close to an outlier… Wouldn’t this be classed a shock poll though? Funny the media only seem to call it a shock when it’s a movement to the coalition.

  27. My Say, my take on Morgan face-to-face polls is the same as Andrew’s – they’re reasonably useful if you discount Labor by 3 per cent. There’s no reason not to treat this as a very, very good result for Labor, with the usual caveat that sometimes polls are “rogue”.

  34. Note that this is the usual weekend face-to-face poll.

    The same weekend which had the coalition campaign launch, and the media’s collective foot-stamping over being shut out of Gillard-Rudd meeting?

  37. Obviously too high but, things have clearly moved towards gillard since the Latham moment, and Abbott’s continual refusal to answer hard questions on the economy. It won’t get any better for Abbott from here to polling day as long as Labor stays on message (Abbott can’t run the economy). Gillard has had a terrific week since the Q&A performance.

    From here, the Labor campaign launch just needs to be positive, not negative, without going overboard. At the moment the Liberals look economically irresponsible. No need to compete for that title.

  38. confessions, Gillard made good progress last week. the MSM dummy spit about the Rudd meeting counted for nothing. As did Abbott’s nothing campaign launch

  40. One suspects this poll was taken at the Belconnen Labor Club during happy hour.
    About as reliable as a Sky-Galaxy forum at the Rooty Hill RSL.

  47. The triumphalism of the Coalition campaign launch was OTT. Sickening though it was, I doubt it would have had THAT much impact on boosting the ALP vote.

  48. Andrew, Channel 7 pays for the Morgan phone polls which take place on Tuesday and Wednesday night. These are the ones they usually announce on the Thursday night news. Last week they only polled Tuesday and announced on Wednesday. Perhaps they’ve just decided its not worth the expense?

  49. This is just not right. But I’m glad it’s our way and not their’s.

    It also suggests that Labour is in front to some degree.

    William usually deducts 3 percent from these polls, which still produces a very healthy 54.5 – 45.5.

    The next phone poll will be very interesting.

  50. Noting William’s comment, even if you take this 57.5, subtract 3% for the Morgan factor (54.5), then subtract MOE, Labor must still be leading, by a minimum of 51.5/52 to 48.

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