Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 23
1 … 4 5 6 … 23

  2. My brother-in-law, who is usually a solid Liberal voter, has switched sides and he’s voting Labor this time – because he likes Julia and he thinks Abbott is a “tool”(in his words). 😀

  3. We’re all going to take this calmly, aren’t we? No hubris – we’ll be like Glen and stay calm and controlled – after a little bit of dancing and cheering for Julia G and the crew.

    I’m expecting La Trioli to concentrate on the PV tomorrow and not even mention Tone’s drop in approval so we can’t get too excited. The media still has to give Labor some decent coverage.

    Perhaps the voters are noticing Julia’s courage in the face of the onslaught.

  4. [Sorry Psephos, I didnt realise that party loyalties and voting patterns hadnt changed in 50 years.]

    Of course they have – Green prefs don’t flow as tightly as DLP ones used to, although they’re still pretty solid. But arithmetic hasn’t – 30 plus 80% of 25 still equals 50.

  12. Psephos @ 170, one of the most interesting things about 1961 was that Calwell could have been elected on QLP/DLP preferences if Labor had just had a few more candidates in tight races in NSW and Queensland capable of attracting the optimal amount of preferences—there were electorates in both states where the apostate party voters gave 50% or more of their 2nd preferences to the ALP. That might even have happened in Vicotoria as well, IIRC.

    If there is a single division in 2010 where the Coalition gets close to 50% Green preferences I’ll eat my hat.

  13. [Well if the Greens don’t want any Catholic votes, fine – we’ll have them.]

    I’m pretty sure I saw research that showed Greens voters are pedimonantly non-religious.

  14. Mexicanbeemer

    I was really trying to say that voting behaviour had changed.

    I would use the example of Clarence in the 1999 NSW state election. (And yes it had optional preferential voting), but the ALP won because of leakages, ie the Liberal voters did not vote for the national candidate. ALP won by 143 votes. 6611 exhausted votes

    In compulsory voting this is when people vote against a howtovote card.

  15. cupidstunt,

    They must have previously because their poll numbers don’t follow through to the ballot box.

    Not to say they won’t hold up this time.

  16. Just got a nice Email from Karl Bitar:

    Dear Frank,

    Today in Brisbane, Tony Abbott and the Coalition held the most negative, policy-free campaign launch in our history.

    It said absolutely nothing about how we can strengthen our economy.

    Time and again during this campaign, Tony Abbott has shown he has no economic plan and no economic judgement – just un-costed promises and a plan to cut services that working families rely on.

    Tony Abbott doesn’t have the understanding or the judgement to run this economy, a view shared not only by Federal Labor, but by many of Mr Abbott’s Liberal colleagues.

    Former Treasurer Peter Costello said he wouldn’t have trusted Mr Abbott with an economics portfolio.

    Australians shouldn’t forget Mr Abbott was against the economic stimulus which saw Australia through the Global Financial Crisis without going into recession.
    Because of Federal Labor’s responsible economic management, Australia has come through the crisis with lower debt, a lower deficit and lower unemployment than any of the major advanced economies.
    Julia Gillard has laid out a clear positive agenda to move Australia forward.

    On 21 August, Australians can roll the dice on Mr Abbott’s lack of judgment or they can vote for the economic record of Federal Labor.

    But before that, we need your help to spread the word about Federal Labor’s economic management and the danger represented by Mr Abbott.
    This campaign is one of the toughest and closest we’ve ever fought, and we need every bit of help we can get.

    Making a donation of just $5 or $10 ads up and can help us keep fighting over the next weeks. It can help keep our ads on TV and keep our local campaigns moving.
    We’re in for the fight of our lives over the next two weeks – we must do everything we can to make sure that in 14 days we don’t wake up with Tony Abbott as our PM.

    Karl Bitar
    National Secretary

    P.S. You can also help by printing some flyers and sharing them with your neighbours or work colleagues, or just taking time to share this email with your friends and family.

    This email was sent by N. Martin, Australian Labor Party, 5/9 Sydney Avenue, Barton ACT to (email addy deleted)

  19. To all those who think the economy is fine and dandy go over to the Australian Industry Group website and check out the services and manufacturing indexes. Add in that business lending has been in decline for over a year and it’s trouble ahead big time. Manufacturing is the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the economy. If it’s tanking then the rest will follow, though usually takes 4-6 months to work through to the retail sector. Julia was smart to go to an election as early as possible before things deteriorate further.

  22. spur 212 @ 88

    [A lot of people are still a bit worried about the 39% primary vote.]

    The ALP won a comfortable victory in the 1990 Federal Election with 39% of the primary vote.

  23. [who reckons that some green voters usually swing to the main parties when the crunch comes on polling day?]

    I reckon some women will swing on voting day, loving Gillard in the lead up and dumping her when it comes to voting in booth.

  26. JackLacton, all the more reason to make sure that Abboots rabble dont have thier hands on the Economy over the next 3 years.

  27. cupidstunt,

    That I don’t know – if they follow the trends of the preference flow, yes they mostly would.

    However, maybe it’s Green conservatives that fly the coop back to home with the Libs.

    Breaking habits is very hard!

  28. [I’m expecting La Trioli to concentrate on the PV tomorrow and not even mention Tone’s drop in approval so we can’t get too excited. The media still has to give Labor some decent coverage.]

    I hope the media continues to play down Labor’s chances. Labor benefits from underdog status. Scare campaigns don’t work unless people are actually scared, and they won’t be scared of Abbott unless they believe he actually might win if they vote for him. People need to be persuaded that if they vote for Abbott, they actually will get him.

  29. Gillard’s statement re school chaplaincy grants…to the amazing figure of $200m.. will be most unwelcome to many secularists in the school system and beyond…

    The god botherers may like it,but some others will see the Greens as the true supporters of secular democracy,and the role of the odious Cardinal Pell..a true vatican reactionary.. will only strengthen this view…after all Pope Pius 12th was an admirer of Mussolini(as was Mannix and Santamaria…Abbot’s much loved mentor !)

    By the way …a WA poll last week showed that while 27% were uneasy with Julia’s atheism…43% were aware and uneasy with Abbot’s hard line Catholic line…after all Pell is his Confessor ..so be very afraid of those true Believers!!

  31. [who reckons that some green voters usually swing to the main parties when the crunch comes on polling day?]

    That nice Andy Tanenbaum who runs electoral-vote in the US told me that the vote of minor parties in general tends to be overstated in polls compared to the actual election. I don’t know if that is true in Oz as well.

  35. Psephos – I am sure the Greens would like more Catholics to vote for them and Cardinal Pell saying silly things about the Greens will help.

  37. Mr Squiggle,

    I reckon some men are going to get to the booth and realise that voting in a boofhead isn’t all that smart either, and they will dump Abbott hard.

  40. Ive never seriously doubted for a moment that the ALP would win narrowly – though I did come to fear the campaign was doing its best to achieve otherwise.

    No longer: these latest ads are great, and I expect Tones to fully lose the plot from here in.

    Someone just pointed out the primaries in this poll have Coalition basically the same as 2007, with the difference being ALP down 5, Greens up 5.

    Interesting: almost makes you wonder about the strategic sense of the ALP constantly pitching at the right.

    Problem appears be to be on your other flank, dudes! 🙂

    Still, this all appears to be working nicely towards the winning combo of ALP govt + Greens BOP in senate, so…. peace be upon you.

  41. Diogenous

    your #173 was politcaly wRONg , there is equal evidence in reverse
    although you did say quote ‘I’m often wrong’
    if you leave out ‘often’ , you is rite

    As to ? interest in primary vote , its soundness that matters nad ? pref drift went

  42. I dips me lid to Kevin Rudd for his loyalty after all that has happened to him. That he has climbed out of the sick bed after a serious operation and is on the hustings and working hard to defeat the scourge of the Abbott scrooges is a testament to how big a man he is.

  44. No comment as yet by Dennis Shanahan on the Australian’s homepage site nor of the Newspoll results as far as I can see. Probably not wanting to detract from the Liberals’ campaign launch.

  46. On the Chaplaincy stuff – wasn’t Gillard wrong today on this – certainly in the school I have some involvement in there is a non-Church person funded as school chaplian – its not tied to church people?

  47. And i can wait to see Kieran Gilbert get his knickers in a twist trying to spin a pro tone line out of this newspoll. Suck eggs Kieran.
    Not that I’m being hubristic here, its anybodys game. I’m just so sick of the Murdochisation of our media and their incessant coalition fan boyism.

  48. [Hah, that latest ALP add finishes with, “Spoken by Peter Costello”.

    Just to rub it in i guess.]
    Would the ALP have had to receive Costello’s approval (or at least active acquiesence, if you get what I mean) to have used that footage?

  49. You can be a conservative and belive in climate change. Why are they incompatible ideas.

    One is a belief system, the other a scientific theory/fact.

  50. [Can we ask Latho to next time perhaps drop the shoulder into Julia?]

    I don’ tunderstand all this sympathy for Julia when she was confronted by the bully Mark latham.

    What about knifing your own leader in the back? does that count as bullying?

    It sounds like she can dish it out, but needs to be protected when its coming back at her

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 23
1 … 4 5 6 … 23