Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

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  1. TSOP – it’s made me feel a bit better – hope you are too. Gusface’s message from the Pub was terrific today as well.

    How many of the candidates in Robertson are pseudo Lib with the votes going back to them or are there enough handing on preferences to Labor there.

    Psephos – what do you expect to happen with Belinda Neal’s supporters – will they stick or is it usual for them to vote away from Labor.

  2. [That nice Andy Tanenbaum who runs electoral-vote in the US told me that the vote of minor parties in general tends to be overstated in polls compared to the actual election. I don’t know if that is true in Oz as well.]

    From memory Newspoll and/or Galaxy underestimated Greens support at the last election?

  3. While on the Catholic vote, I am not sure if you guys saw the cheers Jules received when she announced the ALP would be providing $1.5Million dollars towards people travelling to the Mary MacKillop canonisation.

  4. Ron

    The research was on LP I think.

    I imagine the primary vote is important as a low vote presumably indicates the 2PP vote is soft.

  7. That was funny. but I think the Law requires the speakers names to be mentioned

    I suspect Pete wouldn’t mind. 😉

  9. ltep

    It might not be true in Oz. It would be interesting to watch. Personally, I’ll be surprised if the Greens get a 13% primary.

  11. [What about knifing your own leader in the back? does that count as bullying?]

    No. Unless you think Abbott, Minchin, Abetz and co bullied Turnbull. It’s a normal party process. If, say, Peter Costello barged through an Abbott presser and antagonised him, that might be construed as ‘bullying behaviour’. Neither Gillard nor Abbott are precious little petals though.

  13. [Well if the Greens don’t want any Catholic votes, fine – we’ll have them.

    I’m pretty sure I saw research that showed Greens voters are pedimonantly non-religious.]

    Indeed, but that bottles them up in the 20% no-religion demographic. If they want to grow beyond that, they will need to win the votes of people who identify as Christians. Attacking church leaders is not a good way to do this. Gillard is an atheist, but she knows Labor needs the bulk of the Catholic vote to win. Hence the announcement on school chaplaincies, and also her position on same-sex marriage. I regret both of these positions, but they make absolute sense electorally.

  15. Gus

    [the truce is holding nicely

    may your tofu be always ….tofu’ed?]

    I hope it lasts after the election when the Greens have the BOP and Labor need them to pass legislation.

  17. [We’re all going to take this calmly, aren’t we? No hubris – we’ll be like Glen and stay calm and controlled – after a little bit of dancing and cheering for Julia G and the crew.]

    Yes I certainly will be. I will continue my plea for labor to keep the focus on the economy, on interest rates, and on Abbott’s plan only for the next 3 months, as opposed to the entire elected term. This is where Abbott is weak, and this is where Labor should keep the focus on.

  18. The point of the finger in Jules face was agressive but Jules handled it very well. I wonder how Tone would have reacted, if it was a girl he might have wet himself.

  19. [TSOP – it’s made me feel a bit better – hope you are too.]

    Oh I am.

    Here I was, tentatively logging in to PB, expecting to see a 49-51 Newspoll, which I would tell myself isn’t that bad before I shuffled off to bed. This has been a pleasant surprise. I will definitely sleep much more comfortable tonight.

    And yes, the pub story was uplifting. A lot of these very uplifting anecdotes popping up everywhere, where people who normally don’t give a damn or are conservative leaning love Julia and/or are afraid of Abbott…

  20. [What about knifing your own leader in the back? does that count as bullying?]

    I thought it was just cruel the way nightwatchman Nelson was cut down by Turnbull just when he was settling into the job.

  22. So will I Diogenes. I also imagine if the election looks very close the Greens vote will drop. It’s still a nice thought (for some) though.

  23. stef @ 108

    [I think Tone has been showing some serious signs of hubris this week.]

    Stef, you may have been lurking, but you are spot on.

    The Australian voters have a healthy distrust of those who try to get ahead of themselves, and Tony Abbott has been showing disturbing signs of arrogance and hubris with some of his comments during the last week.

    Never assume that anything is a foregone conclusion in Australia politics, fight for every seat, and trust that the voters can, and will see through the bullshit propagated by the Coalition.

    Maintain the rage, and the enthusiam. comrades …

  24. [I don’ tunderstand all this sympathy for Julia when she was confronted by the bully Mark latham.

    What about knifing your own leader in the back? does that count as bullying?

    It sounds like she can dish it out, but needs to be protected when its coming back at her]
    When a thug like Latham is seen to be monstering a smaller, less physical person; its obviously not a good look and turns people off. The “victim” is sympathized with.
    Particularly if the recipient is a woman.
    Remember Howard 2004 and Lathams handshake moment. But you knew that.

  25. Psephos

    I suspect same-sex marriage will come in under a liberal Liberal government. They are the only ones who can do it politically.

    As tke vulcan saying says: Only Nixon can go to China.

  26. “Personally, I’ll be surprised if the Greens get a 13% primary.”

    Me too, actually, (and most Greens, to be honest, dont believe in 13% just yet) but it *will* go higher than 2007, and Melbourne is a good chance.

    I reckon 10.5%-11% is well on the cards.

  28. The Big Ship
    Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    “A lot of people are still a bit worried about the 39% primary vote.”

    its 38%

    and Newspoll is LIKELY to be 1/2 way between 51.5% / 48.5% and 52/48

  29. The Abbott plan for 3 months is extraordinary – no policies for the long term – they will be made up later by Tony and John WH.

  30. [Still nothing on ‘The Australian’ front page.

    cue the conspiracy theories.]

    Is it a conspiracy if it is internal to a single organisation?

  31. THIS IS CLEARLY A NOBBLED NEWSPOLL DESIGNED TO GET THE LABOR TRAGICS HEARTS UP

    IF YOU’RE GOING TO FAKE A NEWSPOLL FAKE A BIG ONE

    PUPPETMASTER SHANAHAN WILL BE CHORTLING IN HIS JOY AT THE WAY PBERS HAVE BEEN DUPED YET AGAIN BY FANCIFIED FIGURES

    BUT NOT THIS TRAGIC I HAVE MY TINFOIL HAT ON AND AM PREPARED FOR THE MIND-CONTROL RAYS THAT ARE ALREADY DESCENDING FROM THE NEWS LTD SATELLITE HOVERING IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT 56000 KILOMETRES ABOVE OUR HEADS I ALSO HAVE 6 CARTONS OF TOM PIPER’S MINI-SAUSAGES & VEG A DOZEN SACHETS OF BEEF FLAVOUR INSTANT NOODLES TWO 400GM PACKETS OF TOASTED MUESLI 32 GALLONS OF SPRING WATER AND 11 CRATES OF UHT MILK ON HAND IN MY PERSONAL BUNKER THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO FEED ME MY TWO DOGS MY SICK CAT AND THE WIFE FOR 14 DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION MY NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOUR CAN GO TO HELL AS HE IS AN ARSEHOLE AND I WOULDN’T FEED HIM IF HE WAS STARVING AFTER HE REFUSED TO LEND ME HIS LAWNMOWER ITS A LONG STORY BUT NO BUNKER FOR HIM

    ONLY I CAN SEE THAT THIS NEWSPOLL IS A CON A CRUEL TRICK

    OVER AND OUT SUCKERS

    YOUSES FRIEND,

    BB.

  32. [Indeed, but that bottles them up in the 20% no-religion demographic.]

    That’s true but measures of religiosity are steadily declining.

  33. Gusface – try meats.

    We arent all tree-hugging vegos you know! Some of us are just garden variety left-wing omnivores.

  36. [I hope the media continues to play down Labor’s chances. Labor benefits from underdog status. Scare campaigns don’t work unless people are actually scared, and they won’t be scared of Abbott unless they believe he actually might win if they vote for him. People need to be persuaded that if they vote for Abbott, they actually will get him.]

    What I’m mor interested in Pseph, is scrutiny of the policies. When that happens, blind freddie will know who has the best plan.

  37. “The Abbott plan for 3 months is extraordinary – no policies for the long term – they will be made up later by Tony and John WH.”

    thats how ‘guided democracy’ works, Wakefield!

  39. [If they want to grow beyond that, they will need to win the votes of people who identify as Christians.]

    Greens ACT Senate candidate Lin Hatfield Dodds has a background as an activist for the Uniting Church of Australia. I certainly think the Greens should preselect people from a broader range of backgrounds. Hanson-Young is essentially a waste place (not because of her age).

  40. Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    “I hope it lasts after the election when the Greens have the BOP and Labor need them to pass legislation.”

    you never good at maths

    Liberal party will ALSO get BOP

  42. [I suspect same-sex marriage will come in under a liberal Liberal government. ]

    “A liberal Liberal government”? I don’t expect I will live to see such a thing.

  45. [Ask Tony and Malcolm]

    Why should I? Neither Tony’s experiences or Malcolm’s are a relevant comparison.

    Nelson and turnbull had never stood for Prime Minster.

    By comparison, Rudd had not only stood for Prime Minister, his leadership had been ratified by the Australian people at a general election.

    Gillard’s knifing of Kevin Rudd was of a different order of magnitude to the changing of leader in the liberal party

  46. [The Abbott plan for 3 months is extraordinary – no policies for the long term]

    It’s very weak really. I was shocked. Their plans are essentially to make a phone call to Nauru, to set up an advisory body/committee on debt reduction and for Abbott to visit Afghanistan within 3 months.

  47. I knew something was up when I saw the twitter feed filled with lots of nasty anti labor tweets before I logged on here … there going at it pretty hard now.

    Hope Julia can build on this tomorrow night on #Qanda

  50. The fact that News24 is a HD channel surely reduces its potential audience. the sillyness of News24 is that ABC3 which is a SDTV channel does not run 24 hours aday

    SDTV – Standard Definition

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