Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 23
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  1. Patrick,

    I reckon that is actually the case – they will lose the drip feed if they go in too hard on Abbott.

    It may change in the last week, as there is less time to be in the sin bin for the journo.

  2. “You’re lucky. I’ve got the Fossil That Walks, Mr. Personality himself: Ruddock. ”

    For those of us of a literary bent, he does seem very like Dorian Gray’s picture, except that he walks. I hope he got a front row seat at the Launch.

    But even if he didn’t, Abbott’s hug with Howard should prove pretty helpful. “Dad’s Army: Col. Mainwaring embraces the Stupid Boy.”

  3. [President” of a coconut republic ]
    There’s precious few coconuts or anything else on the whole 21sq km lump of birdsh!t.
    I looked up Nauru on google Earth last night. I was truly shocked. We sent people THERE?
    I bet Morrison was so thrilled to get the gig to fly out for a visit. I hope the plane won’t start so he is stranded there.

  4. I know this is not reflective of the general population, but I have spoken to numerous aged pensioners (who happen to be christians and conservative).

    They have all said that under Howard, they were lucky to get an increase in pension of a dollar. Labor have been the only ones to look after them in this way, and that won’t forget it.
    With regards to Julia being an atheist.

    They have all said, they would rather a tolerant atheist who actually governs for all, and not a biggoted christian, which they all believe Abbott to be. Only problem, these pensioners all live in safe labor seats!!

  6. Victoria 704 – your pensioner friends have Alzheimer’s. Howard indexed pensions early on and they went up every year. Under Labor previously they had fallen a long way behind and were only increased every time an election came around in order to win the oldies’ vote.

  7. JackLacton

    One thing I can say about pensioners, when it comes to their pensions and how far it stretches every week. They have all said the same thing, they struggled under Howard, and now the pressure is off.

    You are an offensive buffoon to suggest they have Alzheimers.

  8. [With regards to Julia being an atheist]

    I’ll be pleased to have a PM who doesn’t give door stop interviews outside church on Sundays. Rudd did it and Howard before him. If Abbott were to win he’d conduct his Sunday interviews from the pulpit with the journalists sitting in the pews.

  9. after spending the weekend away from the computer and getting some sun in the park with the young un’ i woke this morning and checked the OO… oh sweet happiness.

    The Labor ads on the box last night during “Dancin” (the OH insists on watching it!) were fantastic. the one with Tip having a chickle about Tony and economics is right on the money.

    2 weeks of hard on message campaiging should see us get home. fingers crossed.

  10. So Labor focus on the economy is working, the ad with Costello is powerful. If they keep this focus Abbott will be shown as the lightweight that he is and the punters will run scared from him. With Rudd on the hustings re-inforcing the arguments the polls should firm up for Labor.

  14. My OH who isnt in to politics, reckons what she likes so much about the ad with Costello is that he pauses for the press to laugh cos he knows everyone is in on the joke…

  15. i bit more relaxed Tobias. jsut hope this interview Rudd has with Sunday Night next week doesn’t throw up any nasties.

  16. Labor is now perfectly competitive on the home run, notwithstanding the horror events of the past couple of weeks.

    The Government is surely certain to be returned with a big unless — unless the leaker is set into motion once more by Labor’s recovery in the polls. Who knows obviously but I compare the immense damage caused by leaks to the damage caused by an arsonist: the thrill is apparently enormously exciting; the results validate a small person.

  18. alias

    The question must be asked first, what is the Leaker trying to achieve?

    Once that is answered, we will know if any more leaks will occur.

  19. there were adverts for it last night during “Dancing”… its an interview on Seven’s program Sunday Night – their 60 minutes clone. Its a face to face with him. some snippets included him talking about “near death”.. must be about his op perhaps? or maybe that was the chat he had with Paul Howes before he got knifed! ha!

  20. I wonder if these softer tory polls will smoke Abbott out of his foxhole and force him to debate Julia.
    For an hour or two she should taunt him, decline and say she is too busy before saying ok tone you’re on.

  22. was Abbott’s list of actions to do after he “wins”, the most shallow and pathetic agenda an aspiring PM has ever offered to the electorate??? i pissed myself laughing reading that. in the immortal words of J. McEnroe.. “you can’t be serious!!”

  23. Henry, Abbott and Gillard are doing that ‘town hall’ thing on Wednesday. I think that’s it as far as the ‘debates’ go and Gillard should take that as a win. I’m sure she’ll be much more forceful this time and it’ll be interesting to see how Abbott handles it.

  24. middle man

    So true. The last thing I would care about our PM doing after an election is speaking to the president of Nauru. Nauru who??

  25. Last week, you had thrown in the towel. How are you feeling now??

    Many of us (including me) were about ready to give up, because Labor wasn’t running on its record.

    The transition from Mogadon Princess to Real Julia was called for here (and I’m sure in many other quarters). It happened. It seems to be working.

    Labor has seen what we all could see and have put the new campaign strategy into effect.

    Why shouldn’t we all be cheered up a bit?

  29. BB

    I know things have been looking grim. But we must not lose faith. As is the nature of these elections, it is a rollercoaster ride.

    As someone else has mentioned, everything has been thrown at Julia including the kitchen sink.

    I would also add, that some of its problems have been from Labor’s own doing, but they certainly have been paying for it.

  31. [“By sandbagging marginal seats, the government will try to chisel its way to a dishonourable victory, like the South Australian and Tasmanian Labor governments did earlier this year.”]

    [Is it just me or was there something laughable about Abbott saying the first phone call he would make as PM would be to the President… of Nauru?]

    Okay, folks, you can put down the glasses.

    If it hadn’t quite happened before, you can now say the Coalition campaign has officially jumped the shark.

  33. Bushfire

    I’m relieved for the moment, but like a lot of anti tories, I’ve completely lost faith in the bunch of bitching, focus group driven morons who run the ALP. Julia’s turned out worse than Rudd ever was and in changing leaders at the first sign that the News Limited campaign against rudd was biting, Labor have given up all the advantages of encumbency and effectively trashed the office of Prime Minister in peoples mind. The comical attempt to bring Rudd back into the fold highlights this. They should never have been in this position.

  34. [Abbott and Gillard are doing that ‘town hall’ thing on Wednesday. I think that’s it as far as the ‘debates’ go and Gillard should take that as a win. I’m sure she’ll be much more forceful this time and it’ll be interesting to see how Abbott handles it.]

    I expect JG, who will speak first, will say she’s disappointed that Mr.Abbott doesn’t have the courage to debate her on the economy citing he had no available time slot yet he finds the time at short notice to speak for an hour. No ticker.

  35. the final line of Gittins piece on the BER sums it up:

    “So the impression of widespread waste the media and people with axes to grind have left us with is greatly exaggerated”.

    Throughout this year we have been subjected to the propaganda from The OO on this programme which has been proven to be one big lie trying to divert from their idelogical issue with fiscal stimulus as a concept which has been resoundingly successfull. as reinforced by J Stiglitz comments

  36. chinda63

    I laughed also re Abbott calling President of Nauru.

    I mentioned on earlier post, that the last thing I would want PM to do after election, is call President of Nauru.

    With regards to coalition officially jumping the shark. I agree entirely. I would also add that the media had jumped the shark with the Latham stunt. Albeit, they are trying very hard to pull back from it, but the damage to the credibility of the media is done.

  37. [Henry, Abbott and Gillard are doing that ‘town hall’ thing on Wednesday. I think that’s it as far as the ‘debates’ go and Gillard should take that as a win. I’m sure she’ll be much more forceful this time and it’ll be interesting to see how Abbott handles it.] yeah I know that itep but its not really a debate is it when they are not going mano e mano.
    She should really taunt him about this on weds – “what do you think tony, are you up to a proper head to debate on the economy? What does the audience think?” *loud cheering*

  38. Thanks confessions 🙂 Haven’t watched commercial television in years.

    [I would also add, that some of its problems have been from Labor’s own doing]

    I’d say 99% of them are. If the Liberals had handed the same number of sticks to Gillard to bash Abbott over the head with they’d be dead, buried and cremated by now.

  42. Itep.

    I think the difference between the tories and Labor, is that the tories have no shame in pushing their lies to the ninth degree. Whereas Labor lack that ability.
    Howard would never ever concede any mistakes, no matter how obvious.

  43. How will the town meeting work?

    Will they be on stage together and people ask them independent questions, or they will appear separately at different times?

  44. [The Government is surely certain to be returned with a big unless — unless the leaker is set into motion once more by Labor’s recovery in the polls.]

    That, Alias, is the best sign of desperation in the Tory camp yet. If one unsubstantiated leak caused damage then another one will cause a Tory win now. If anybody tries that stunt at this stage of the campaign the leak had better be handsigned by the Leaker as well as Oakes or nobody will believe a word of the Tories mudslinging.

  45. from the SMH:

    Family First nominee’s gay Twitter slur
    BEN GRUBB 10:25am Wendy Francis says legitimising gay marriage is like “legalising child abuse”.

  46. [Xenophon has showed no sign of selling his vote out in exchange for something else]

    I thought he once sold his vote for more money for the Murray R. or something, and got plenty of criticism for it.

  47. steve

    I posed the question earlier. What does the leaker wish to achieve?

    From all appearances, Rudd is fighting for the return of this govt. Who else has skin in the game, and wants Labor to lose. From this vantage point, the obvious answer is the coalition??

    mudslinging that is their game.

  48. [Morning, JG campaigning with former WA Minister Alannah McTiernan and candidate for the Lib held seat of Canning, this morning. #ausvotes]

    Abbott snoozing in Brissy.

  50. I am quite sure Tip will not mind the ALP using his soundbite in their add to belittle Abbort.

    After all it will be in Tips interest for abbort to not become PM after he did not support Tip in his ascendency over Rattus.
    Definately no love lost there.

    Could not imagine Tip being impressed with the idea of Abbort saying to him; well at least i got to be PM.

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