Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. Victoria
    The thing about a leak is that there’s some emphasis on it coming from a credible source. If that wasn’t the case then we’d all be on the phone to Oakes telling him stories about how abbott is actually a socialist atheistic chardonnay drinker who weaves baskets and quotes freely from foucalt. Big Laurie needs to establish the bona fides of the leaker before he splashed over the front page.

  2. I also wonder whether more leaks will do that much harm in any case. Channel 9 and Laurie Oakes are discredited as sources, shown to be running an agenda against Gillard with their Norman Gunston stunt.

    After this, leaks can be potentially dismissed as an internal turf war within the 9 organization: let’s see who pulls the biggest stunt, Oakes or Norman Gunston.

    Another leak at this stage will look like it’s a vendetta.

    Although I briefly used to work for Channel 9 (Sydney, NBN9) I could never stand their “suits and saucy” attitude. Leering faces, no-nothings posing as experts, over-produced gossip mongerers always trying for the lowest common denominator. Their pushing of Oakes as the man running the election seems to have run out of steam.

    I can still remember the ikonic Ron “Won” Casey watching a political news interview I’d edited in one of the ENG suites saying, “He’s such a f**king dummy.” I said, “Yeah, he’s not real bright,” (referring to the interviewee). “No,” said Ron, “him,” pointing to the journalist. That journo still works at 9 today: all suit and teeth, no substance at all.

  3. No. Both Oakes and Hartcher claim the source is definitely a Government one.

    It could have been a staffer or some other public servant.

  4. That Costello ad is one of the most devastating I have ever seen. It WILL be effective and impossible to counter.

    I wouldn’t think Peter is the most popular person in the Liberal camp at the moment.

  5. my guess is the media havent gone hard on Abbott yet because they know if they did in week one of an election. Abbott may of been dead and buried there and then and it was starting to look that way with his shaky start, and for the media an election decided in the first week would of been a disaster for the media.

    The media has an interest of keeping this thing go until the last day.

  6. Yes, but it is easy to say LTEP. There has not been one shred of evidence produced. Until there is, it is an election stunt on behalf of the coalition who are demonstrably the receiver of benefit from the leak.

  7. [I thought he once sold his vote for more money for the Murray R. or something, and got plenty of criticism for it.]

    Well asking for more money for the Murray as part of the stimulus package is more like the Greens asking for additional money for bike paths than trading out on something you don’t believe in for something you do. It’s one of the things I like about the Greens, that they are unwilling to bargain in the Harradine sense.

    If Xenophon and Fielding were ‘buyable’, I’m a bit surprised the Government didn’t try and buy their votes on some of their legislation throughout this term of Government. In fact by most accounts they didn’t even attempt to negotiate at all.

  8. Family first look very capable of a senate seat in South Australia. They are Advertising on prime time T.V. I am assuming this is only occuring in S.A. I know here in Hindmarsh I have been bombarded with glossy family first materials about their lead S.A candidate Bob Day, former Liberal candidate ( Makin 2007).

  9. Kezza
    I know Marxism is supposed to be dead and everything but the media, reflecting as they do corporate interests, are overwhelmingly interested in a tory victory. They’re not just going easy on Abbott for superficial reasons related to the election contest. They have effectively closeted him from any scrutiny and that will continue right up to election day. The fact that a political goose of abbotts order can get within cooee of the lodge is a testimony to their power.

  10. The Costello ad also provides Gillard with another retort regarding alleged disunity in the Labor camp.

    When a former Liberal treasurer (the world’s best according to the man himself) questions the competence of the current leader like that – now that is disunity in spades.

  11. Lukey, it’ll certainly be interesting to watch, and in the event of an Abbott Government any party who can manage to deny seats to the Coalition in the Senate is very welcome.

    I note the ACT Senate poll mentioned in William’s post but also note similar polls in 2007 (from memory) had the parties roughly on the same levels of support.

  12. [Abbott and Gillard are doing that ‘town hall’ thing on Wednesday. I think that’s it as far as the ‘debates’ go and Gillard should take that as a win. I’m sure she’ll be much more forceful this time and it’ll be interesting to see how Abbott handles it]

    Itep – is Tone too chicken to go head to head at Rooty Hill RSL with Julia. I heard Sky say it would be 1 hour with Julia and then 1 hour with Tone. Why not together?

    Altho I guess Julia can debunk a lot of Abbott’s lies on her own and then he might look a bit foolish in the second hour. Hope so anyway.

  13. If Xenophon and Fielding were ‘buyable’, I’m a bit surprised the Government didn’t try and buy their votes on some of their legislation throughout this term of Government. In fact by most accounts they didn’t even attempt to negotiate at all.

    The government was trying for a plenary consensus on Climate Change, one so wide-ranging that the Lib and Nat CC-deniers would be unable to unravel it if they ever got into power.

    The Greens always had a fairyland agenda revolving around 50% targets, shutting down the coal industry and coal-fired power stations that would have thrown thousands out of work. Negotiating with Fielding (Liberal Nutra-Sweet) and X wouldn’t, couldn’t have done them any good.

    Labor had to face facts that dealing with the Coalition was the only way to achieve national agreement on a framework for an ETS. They came within a whisker of achieving it.

  14. BB

    Your comments re channel 9 losing credibility is spot on. That is why Oakes is pissed with the Latham stunt. It has shred his credibility as well. Karma is a b….!

  15. [member of the government, or a staffer?]

    Who knows? I suspect it’s a Government member but others will think otherwise. Another journalist claimed it was a member of the ‘kitchen Cabinet’ that leaked him something. It’s all neither here nor there though. I don’t think the public care who is leaking and, for now, it has stopped.

  16. Gorgeous Dunny @ 556

    [Quite likely Cheeseman will hang on in Corangamite, which brings me to Joseph Heller’s ‘Catch-22? discussed recently. There’s a line there about an abortive attempt by Col Kathcart to demote Major Major:”This army’s only got one Major Major Major and we’re not giving him up for anything.” ]

    I think Colonel Cathcart tried to first promote Major Major, but was rebuffed by ex PFC Wintergreen (the real power at headquarters because he’s in charge of the mimeograph machine and mail distribution) with the words you have quoted above. Colonel Cathcart was so stunned with the rebuke that he then tried on the same day to demote Major Major, but Colonel Korn talked him out of it with the sage advice that they wouldn’t let them demote Major Major for the same reason that they wouldn’t promote him.

    Classical stuff.

  17. Itep

    Rudd just out of an operation, has put aside his pride to fight for the Labor govt. Why would he leak, and then do this. Tanner has retired and he emphatically denies it was him. He has other personal matters to worry about. Swan? why would he.

    Doesn’t ring true.

  18. Itep

    I understand that Rudd emphatically denies it as well, and has suggested that many people including staffers and public servants know the essence of discussions in cabinet.

    The Grech saga comes to mind.

  19. Faulkner obviously 😉

    The only other fellow who is in the inner circle of everybody. Knows everything. Going to the backbench. etc etc

  20. Bushfire, I wasn’t referring only to climate change legislation. I was referring to a broad range of legislation (for instance, private health legislation, laws relating to political donations etc.). Rumour has it that on some pieces of legislation the Government didn’t even pick up the phone and talk to the Senate cross bench about them. If the cross bench were ‘buyable’ as some here are suggesting then why didn’t the Government attempt to ‘buy’ them?

  21. Itep

    Rudd just out of an operation, has put aside his pride to fight for the Labor govt. Why would he leak, and then do this. Tanner has retired and he emphatically denies it was him. He has other personal matters to worry about. Swan? why would he.

    Doesn’t ring true.

    Its all water under the bridge now anyway. Rudd should know to shut up because a lot of his supporters in caucus (all 12 of them) are the exact people who would lose their seats if Labor loses – ie, those elected in 2007 like Maxine and that bald guy from Queensland.

  22. [News focuses on the unusual not the usual, the bad news not the good, the contentious not the widely accepted. (That’s why climate change-denying scientists get a degree of media publicity out of proportion to the relevance of their qualifications or how representative they are of scientific opinion.)

    This is why you wouldn’t expect the media to do justice to the reassuring conclusions of the independent taskforce established to investigate complaints about the Building the Education Revolution spending.

    For one thing, reassurance isn’t very newsworthy. For another, any critical comments will be given more prominence than generally approving comments.]

    Local ABC radio here pushing the line that Orgill’s report shows that the BER was a huge waste of money!!

  23. leftwingpinko

    I agree water under bridge. But seeing the media jump the shark with the Latham stunt, and Oakes being peeved that his importance has been diminished, can you honestly believe that another stunt not in the pipeline??

  24. victoria, that is all wishful thinking. Tanner did not ’emphatically deny’ he was the source of the leaks (in fact the reporting of Tanner’s comments clearly pointed out that he refused to discuss whether he was the source). I don’t believe a word Rudd says on just about anything. As I said though, it’s not important who the leaker was.

    And to Sertse, I don’t believe it’s Faulkner for a second.

  25. I don’t think the public care who is leaking and, for now, it has stopped.

    It defies credulity to my mind at least that the Leaker has been drip feeding Oakes and perhaps Hartcher.

    More likely is that it, or most of it, was one big angry rant that Oakes is doling out like scoops of ice cream from a large tub, making it look like a series of leaks, an ongoing thing, rather than just one phone-based diatribe near the beginning of the campaign. Far more damaging that way. It suits Oakes’ personality and view of himself as a Inquisitor In Chief, deciding the fates of nations.

  26. Itep.

    He was interviewed by the OO or SMH I believe the other day, and he is on record denying it. I can’t remember which edition. Maybe someone else can remember the interview.

  27. Even if someone’s already posted and linked this piece by Peter Hartcher, it’s worth repeating. Hartcher has been one of the few journals deserving a modicum of respect this election.

    [“Poor man’s Howard moving backwards to the future”]

    [TONY ABBOTT has launched the Liberal Party’s campaign as a poor man’s John Howard.

    The biggest single applause point among the faithful at the Liberal launch came when Abbott embraced Howard in the front row of the Queensland Performing Arts Centre.

    It was the personification of the Abbott pitch – a return to the philosophy and policies of the Howard era.]

  28. leftwingpinko

    I agree water under bridge. But seeing the media jump the shark with the Latham stunt, and Oakes being peeved that his importance has been diminished, can you honestly believe that another stunt not in the pipeline??

    I am hoping that all of these events, and Barry’s spray on Onesiders, will force the general standards of journalism to rise by a couple of notches for the last couple of weeks. This would hopefully limit the use of cynical media stunts in favour of better intelligent scrutiny of the candidates.

    Neither Labor nor the tabloid media has been flattered by any of these events. The good news is that, in spite of it all, Labor is still ahead.

  29. If Oakes is peeved enough and has more (which is likely) I think he try to reassert his “dominance” by showing 9 that he is bigger than Latham, bigger than 9 and even bigger than the government.

    The only thing he is not bigger than is Jabba The Hutt, and it’s a close call there too.

    It will be a matter of how Labor handles the leak that counts.

    Incidentally, I’m for Julia wearing an all white pants suit ensemble at the Town Hall meeting. That red hair and all white would look glorious, an angel come to save the ungrateful, cowering bogans of Mamre Road (pronounced “Mam-ry”), Rooty Hill.

  30. Atticus

    Yes it is laughable. Howard lost his seat at the last election, and Abbott wants us to believe, we crave to go back the Howard era. Not even the ICC wanted Howard.

  31. Barry’s spray on Onesider

    All very well and good, but don’t forget he’d just interviewed Julia and spent 3/4 of the time on Kevin Rudd and Mark Latham.

    Cassidy is full of it. Standing there with his prop clipboard, pontificating about the lapse in journalistic standards, while being a major contributor to the slide in his own right.

    Last week, interviewing Swan, he spen 8 of 12 minutes banging on about leaks, Rudd and train-wrecks, and then asked Swan whether he ever got tired of such questioning.

    Cassidy is a fake. Don’t take too much notice of him., or put too much store in his reforming his weasley ways anytime soon.

  32. Just watching sky Costello is spitting chips over that Labor ad. Trying to turn his words around saying its Labor who are blocking every economic reform.

  33. Lets meet the real Julia,

    On the ABC’s 7.30 Report last Tuesday, the following exchange took place between the program’s presenter, Kerry O’Brien, and the Prime Minister: O’Brien: ”You said you had built a real and genuine friendship with [Kevin Rudd] over the time you’ve worked together. Now he went to hospital for a gall bladder operation … Why wouldn’t you lift the phone … to wish him well?”

    Julia Gillard: ”Well, Kerry, as you know, we’re in the middle of an election campaign …”

    O’Brien: ”Five minutes?”

    Gillard: ”And, well, that’s not the point I’m making …”

    O’Brien: ”… ringing this man that you spent thousands of hours working alongside?”

    Gillard: ”There would be, you know, 10 TV cameras and 40 journalists trailing behind me.”

    O’Brien: ”A discreet private phone call?”

    Gillard: ”I would be asked to reveal the conversation.”

    What a lying, pathetic, insincere human being

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