The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Actually Dio – it should be 68/79/3 – thanks for pointing it out.
That graphic gets generated in excel, yet sometimes the cells don’t update properly unless I press alt-ctrl-F9. (obviously forgot this morning)
Lazy Coalition cells – you can’t trust them 😛
BH
It’s the sense of entitlement that pisses me off. Who in their right mind would think that the media could sit in when two powerful people have a crucial and difficult meeting? Would Murdoch and Mitchell let the media sit in on their meetings? It’s ridiculous.
Hmm:
Media can go to hell. Labor owe them nothing, the primadonnas can bloody well wait.
Its not about them.
So looking at the polls it looks as is if labor has stanched the hemorrhaging and are starting to claw it back.
Good signs. Whats critical now is how the ALP manage the whole Rudd “back into the fold thing”. Do it right and the election is theirs.
Julia and Kevin Rudd, in more eyes than you would think the joint leaders of the Labor Party.
Please Julia come to your senses!
There seem to be some people here who have written off Labor in this election due to the polls. I guess they wrote off the Libs at this time in the 2004 campaign. Whatever happened to PM Latham?
Perahelion @ 239
[As far as I know this guy’s main ambition is to get down to the local club after work and drink and play the pokies.]
Sounds like a better plan than spending all his free time on an obscure blog chanting mantras about the unelectability of Tony Abbott and the ABC’s part in the great big right wing conspiracy.
[Julia and Kevin Rudd, in more eyes than you would think the joint leaders of the Labor Party.
Please Julia come to your senses!]
So you won’t have anything to do with Labor because Rudd will be in her cabinet if she wins? Pull the other one. You won’t vote Labor anyway me thinks.
ABC 24 streaming the Julia presser? Some boring woman droning on about something at the minute.
Ahh Sly News:
spot the difference.
Gary
I don’t think anyone has written off Labor. I’m assuming the Greens win Melbourne which makes four indies (sort of). I predict we’ll be hearing a lot more about what they would do in a hung Parlt in the next two weeks.
Frankie
have you become Comfortably Numb also?
[Good signs. Whats critical now is how the ALP manage the whole Rudd “back into the fold thing”]
The problem they’ve got is that having him near Gillard dimnishes her authority and leadership in the eyes of the public.
People are asking themselves who’s running the show, and if Rudd was so good, why did they dump him?
I think they’re making a mistake by giving him more exposure.
The message should be that Gillard is the better leader & go hard on showing Abbott’s flaws with a massive negative campaign.
Henry@259
Of course not – but Dear Tony can get a live cross like that – even with dodgy audio like he did in Tassie.
[The problem they’ve got is that having him near Gillard dimnishes her authority and leadership in the eyes of the public.
People are asking themselves who’s running the show, and if Rudd was so good, why did they dump him?]
And how well was the separation working for them, particularly in Qld? Those leaks really helped too – not.
[Media can go to hell. Labor owe them nothing, the primadonnas can bloody well wait.
Its not about them.]
If the ALP win they should screw the Aust. The Aust has used the last 12mths to smash the ALP with beat ups and fabrications. They owe them nothing and if they give them anything the OO still goes to town on them. Just ignore them.
Some jerk now on Sky News saying he didn’t think the pictures of the Gillard-Rudd meeting were much chop.
Who’s a thuink he’d say somethng like that?
[The problem they’ve got is that having him near Gillard dimnishes her authority and leadership in the eyes of the public.
People are asking themselves who’s running the show, and if Rudd was so good, why did they dump him?
I think they’re making a mistake by giving him more exposure.
The message should be that Gillard is the better leader & go hard on showing Abbott’s flaws with a massive negative campaign.]
Rubbish, the public have been concerned about the ALPs treatment of Rudd. Particularly in Qld they want gillard to be seen to be nice to him, to say sorry without saying sorry. To allay their concerns if you like. She is doing that and once that has been done enough will vote for labor again to make a difference.
Gillard can easily show leadership and embrace Rudd at the same time. Remember she has always promised him a senior possie.
Poss is in the MSM again. What a media slut he’s becoming!
[The poll-watcher and stats-wonk who blogs at Pollytics under the pseudonym Possum Comitatus fed the latest and Nielsen state breakdowns into his election simulator.
He found the most likely election result on those poll numbers was a Parliament with 76 seats going to Labor, 71 to the Libs and Nats and 3 to the Independents.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/hayseed-amigos-could-control-power-20100805-11im2.html?autostart=1
Sky news are really pissed off and that absurd reporter following the PM is a stirring young prat..needs a decent boot in the ring gear the tosser…they wouldnt tell me where the meeting is he whines,,,after the last 3 weeks of the treatment the media has been dishing out why are they surprised…now folks Mark Latham is holding a door stop its on sky…what a circus!!!
So the poisonous Latham is lurking….interesting. 60 minutes hatchet job on the eve of the election.
What a media harlot he has become.
How much is it costing for the publicly funded ABC to run a 24 hour news channel that runs week old radio shows instead of news?
latham is stirring up the media sharks,,,urging them to have a go at Gillard for not letting them in
[now folks Mark Latham is holding a door stop its on sky…what a circus!!!]
Well if Rudd can stay in the picture why not him.
Henry @ 259
[Some boring woman droning on about something at the minute.]
Oh my God, it’s Radio National with pictures.
Gary went:
[Poss run it over the 2004 election and see what you end up with. Newspoll had Labor in front by a fair margin for most of that campaign. Don’t know about the others.]
On the Coalition TPP I get 52.2 (compared to the actual 52.7%). Galaxy had 52, Nielsen 54, Newspoll 50, Morgan phone 49 and some pollster I’ve called Anonymous X had 53 (some phone pollster with a sample of 1500 -I can’t even remember when or where I got this poll or who it is!).
[ABC 24 streaming the Julia presser? Some boring woman droning on about something at the minute.]
She is talking about how people try to survive in North Korea.
Probably more interesting than whatever it is Gillard is going to say.
Latham is the snake
I’m home sick with TSOP’s wog and just felt sicker watching Latham talking to the press on Sky.
Latham is just being a sore looser, i think.
latham is going to Gillards press conference he is working for 60 minutes, WTF is going on here…he will be asking questions.
[On the Coalition TPP I get 52.2 (compared to the actual 52.7%). Galaxy had 52, Nielsen 54, Newspoll 50, Morgan phone 49 and some pollster I’ve called Anonymous X had 53 (some phone pollster with a sample of 1500 -I can’t even remember when or where I got this poll or who it is!).]
Is that at the same stage of the 2004 election as we are in now?
mark is pissed off he didnt get an invite to the launch
apparently he was told to catch a taxi
😉
Latham is now showing the world what he really is. This won’t look good for him.
So aacording to the Sky Hack, the BIG question of today’s campaign is why weren’t more cameras allowed into the Rudd meeting.
And they wonder why people think they’re a pack of effwits?
[She is talking about how people try to survive in North Korea.
Probably more interesting than whatever it is Gillard is going to say.]
Its the election stoopid.
I liked Latham. He still has a lot of smart stuff to say about Labor. But sometimes he makes it personal which detracts.
Perhaps Mark could monster a couple of pensioners for the cameras.
Sometimes???
Thomas you mean calling Rudd a liar and a serial leaker, that is smart?????????????
So Channel 9 is really gunning to do Labor in firstwith Oakes, then their news reports and now Latham following the campaign.
Kev shouln’t have given them any money – Labor should have let them rot in hell.
[Media can go to hell. Labor owe them nothing, the primadonnas can bloody well wait.
Its not about them.
So looking at the polls it looks as is if labor has stanched the hemorrhaging and are starting to claw it back.
Good signs. Whats critical now is how the ALP manage the whole Rudd “back into the fold thing”. Do it right and the election is theirs.]
we have great faith
Gary went:
[Is that at the same stage of the 2004 election as we are in now?]
No, that’s the final Friday/Saturday polls
When i see latham i turn off the channel simple so many others may also
Sky are really putting the boot in, Labor have dragged Kevin Rudd in to the campaign..
[She is talking about how people try to survive in North Korea.]
I’m going to take some notes in case Julia is
re-elected.From Grog:
As Kevin Rudd is now fair game for the journalists in this election I can imagine what their questions to him will be?
1. Do you agree with Julia Gillard’s assessment that your government had lost its way?
2. Do you agree with Julia Gillard & Wayne Swan rolling over to the big miners in negotiations on the RSPT?
3. Do you agree with Julia Gillard moving to the right on asylum seeker issues?
4. Do you agree that Julia Gillard’s policy in forming a “Citizen’s Assembly” on climate change is good policy?
5. Do you agree with Julia Gillard’s policy of moving away from a “big Australia”?
6. Do you agree that Julia Gillard’s policy of “cash for clunkers” is good CO2 abatement policy?
The list is endless.
[we have great faith]
The good guys will win my say. The light on the hill still burns!