We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.
UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.
the ghost
[It baffles me really how Labor had lost its way, because Abbott and his cronies are quite inept. It should not even be a contest.]
I’d advance three reasons.
The press got bored with him.
Because he didn’t pander to them and cut govt advertising.
Rudd assumed the coalition couldn’t ressurrect under Abbott so he was a little complacent (and thus underestimated the fuss the press would make of the Mad Monk simply because he was good press — even if he is bad PM material).
Oscar@459
That’s a pretty decent comeback.
Just as the Labor party backroomers are workshopping, no doubt various Canberra hotshots are devising ways to frame the ultimate question for this — let’s face it — extraordinary moment in Australian politican history. As never before, body language will be scrutinised endlessly for any sign of acrimony, and any sign of who appears to be more prime ministerial.
The body language analysis will ramp up the moment one of these wing-dinger questions gets asked. I think both Gillard and Rudd are steely enough in their determination not to betray anything that can be used against Labor, but it will be fascinating viewing.
Yep, post updated.
Pebbles
Ended up as plastic surgeon but started out doing a neurophysiology PhD. As Klee says “The journey is more important than the destination. After all, becoming is more important than being.”
[Margin or error Pebbles. At this stage it’s all a matter of where the seats fall on the day. Particularly given up to 10% make their minds up on the day.]
I am aware of MoE, but the fact is, that number is larger than last time. I know there’s not much solace to take but it’s better than nothing, n’est-ce pas?
Well if Labor can pick up a point a week from here on in we’ll be okay…
Apparently, due to design crudities and limitations, the actual amount of nuclear material that fissioned completely at both Hiroshima and Nagasaki (before the bomb casings disintegrated and thus had no further effect) was 0.16 grammes, or about the weight of a grain of rice.
“Horrible” indeed.
Ah, Diogenes’ life is the basis for the TV series Nip/Tuck 😉
Seriously, a healer is a healer. Very good.
Greens with the Balance of Power in the Senate?
I’m not so sure that is a good thing. Not if either party wants to get things passed. Their state records, particularly in Tas & Vic show them as obstructionist.
I, like many others, was also perplexed when the ETS slipped through their fingers. With my background in science, for two decades I’ve been quite convinced it’s (AGW) crap, but am still very much in support of a low-Carbon economy (we should have stopped burning fossil fuels decades ago). However, if they believe that global warming is going to kill the planet, they are not acting like it.
It seemed very much that they were pissed to be ‘not invited to the party’ which is more politically petulant than politically pertinent.
The most recent action to allocate preferences to secure senate power prior to ALP climate policy just entrenches their desire as a political party first and the environment somewhat second.. at LEAST hear the policy if you want credibility.
Does anyone know if it was coincidence that the Climate policy came the day after the Green deal??
[“Horrible” indeed.]
So the nuclear arms race that ensued for the next 40 years is nothing? I know we had to bomb Hiroshima. I know whose side I would’ve been on in that war but I still reserve the right to feel a bit negative about nuclear arms.
jenauthor
You make some valid points.
Most war is caused by a difference of opinion between only a few. These few happen to have the power to influence people to fight. We need to forgive those who were deprived of rational thinking. We need to ensure all people are able to see the futility of any future war. Also to remember the Fawlty Towers line.
Joffa, I can understand why your Japanese friends didn’t want to talk about the war to you.
BB
[ Are you suggesting Rudd’s health caused Labor to lose its way?
It’s possible. I don’t know, but Rudd would be the kind of bloke who’d suck it up and suffer, so as not to be seen as weak. Remember the “dodgy heart” rumours?]
That is possible but unlikely. Rudd had had gallstones at least since Nov 09. He could have been having frequent attacks of biliary colic which made him sick and in pain. He could have ignored them so he could keep working as he is clearly a workaholic. Not many people have really frequent attacks though.
[frequent attacks of biliary colic ]
sounds like the US thread in 2008
😉
[I’m not so sure that is a good thing. Not if either party wants to get things passed. Their state records, particularly in Tas & Vic show them as obstructionist.]
Works well in the ACT where the greens hold the balance in teh assembly.
Only complaints are from labor who say their legislation is subject to more scrutiny and inquiries as greens can combine with libs.
@Mike,
In Tas they (Coalition/Libs) wanted continue the rollout of the NBN, on the mainland Coalition do not.
Greens on the mainland want the NBN to continue.
I think it shows it can work out.
Coalition will need another term in opposition before they have my vote.
Yep, Diog, you prove my point in another way I think, though people voting for their own interests is not necessarily a bad thing, in my view.
[My Dad fought against the Japanese, and had as much reason as anyone to hate them for what they did in WWII, but he raised me without ever expressing any bitterness, or hatred for his former enemies,]
Big Ship,
Now I understand why we admire the same novels and films. My Dad also fought the Japanese, but his post-war attitudes were the opposite of your dad’s. I rejected his racist attitudes, so we avoided politics for the sake of family harmony.
How I envy any Bludger who can discuss this election with like-minded relatives. All my rels are avid right-wingers.
To Speak of Pebbles
[So the nuclear arms race that ensued for the next 40 years is nothing? I know we had to bomb Hiroshima.]
I find this a shocking admission. This makes it sound like the US had no choice. This is one of the most horrific acts in the history of modern war. It is only second to the Holocaust in my book because it discriminated not on belief (which many do here) but on race.
I was a very slow convert to nuclear power due to this very act but now believe that it must have its place if we are truly to be pragmatic about ‘looking after the garden’.
To have someone assess this atrocity as “necessary” to me is quite brutal and my close Japanese friends would concur.
I found that people in Hiroshima- just people on the street- would stare, in a much more direct or intense manner than anywhere else in Japan (I am very “Western looking”).
The head count of Japanese fascists seemed to be rather high- but then perhaps they were just having a convention there at the time (I certainly saw a huge golfing range from the train that was packed with them, all driving away).
The ruins of the Imperial Military Headquarters building (just a footprint of the building) and the very soil about it were impregnated with little flakes of gold.
All the memorials are very moving, including the one crammed into a far corner of the Peace Park, segregated far away from all the others. This was the memorial to the Korean victims of the blast. You may have seen it- it is a stone memorial with a large & distinctive base in the shape of a tortoise or turtle. A rather pointed inscription on it (in English among other languages) said that it had been paid for by private contributions from the Korean community…perhaps because the Japanese Govt was not keen on helping? I seem to remember it also said that there was a long fight by Korean Japanese to get it placed there at all.
Hiroshima just seemed to be a little different…
Dee @ 387
[Is this the Acerbic Conehead who pens poetically tacit observations?]
Acerbic Conhead first appeared as a blogger on ‘The Australian’ during the 2007 election as an eponymous antidote to an annoying Howard Hugger named Cerdic Conan, who always ended his pompous pronouncements about his idol, JWH, winning the election with the words ‘so says Cerdic Conan!’
He was a windy son of a bitch, and ‘Acerbic’ took the piss out of him mercilessly, totally deflating the bellicose bumpkin.
We could do with some of Ascerbic’s dry wit on PB sometimes, methinks.
I think I’m going to have a cardiac arrest. The Neilsen has the Coalition ahead on TPP.
HSO they did last week too. There’s no point panicking. Nothing can be done at the stage bug crossing fingers and hoping Labor squeak by on the day.
[I find this a shocking admission. This makes it sound like the US had no choice. This is one of the most horrific acts in the history of modern war. It is only second to the Holocaust in my book because it discriminated not on belief (which many do here) but on race.]
I just don’t want to muddy the issue. I really don’t know what went through Truman and the High Command’s minds when the order was given. Did they know that it would spawn a technology that could easily see a mass extinction occur at any time?
I do apologise if I sounded insensitive. That was not my intention.
The point I was making is say what you want about WWII, the USSR, the Chinese etc. Nuclear weaponry was humanity’s worst invention – that and vanilla coke.
Sigh, ohwell, better than 52-48. Another two weeks, another 2 percentage points to claw back.
Aint over til it’s over.
If the last polls before election day point to 50-50 nationally (or better) then I think Labor will get up, just.
@TML/526,
Not to mention that people change their minds on the day.
I will make one bold prediction: whoever wins on election night, will win clearly with a majority.
[Sigh, ohwell, better than 52-48. Another two weeks, another 2 percentage points to claw back.
Aint over til it’s over.]
Magic,
Don’t lose sight of the fact that Howard won his first re-election with only 49%.
A Ray Warren voice “Tony Abbott is edging closer to victory”.
A Bruce McAvaney voice “can you believe it”.
The market has changed, Betfair: ALP 1.56 out to 1.60 / LNP 2.76 into 2.64
Now Sportingbet is the only organisation offering 2.50 for the LNP.
I agree. I’ll even go as far to say that the winner will have >80 seats.
49-51. Would have liked it back to 50-50, but still keeps us in the game. Again, as long as we are not behind 47-53 or something like that, we are stil breathing. MOE of 3% means it is still tight and a tight election still favours us.
Worried about Newspoll after the BER reporting but we are still capable of getting it back to 52-48 by two weeks times. The next week will make or break our campaign.
[I will make one bold prediction: whoever wins on election night, will win clearly with a majority.]
I agree Pebbles.
[A Ray Warren voice “Tony Abbott is edging closer to victory”.]
Even though the movement is opposite.
Pebbles
Ozymandias is one of the few poems I can remember word for word (mind you it is pretty short), I usually get stuck after the second line of most others.
I agree with you on Shelley, along with Yeats, Brooke and being a Scottish/Australian (well the Americans get away with that sort of description all the time), still have a hankering for Burns.
Centre
1.75 is the tipping point
TSOP
Gee that is a bold prediction!
I am going to make a very unscientific prediction and say Labor will win with 80 seats.
Too optimistic?
Nobody is going to really know until election day.
The important thing is just how much incumbency benefit Gillard has lost Labor. I suspect it most of it would have been lost, give the poor nature of her campaign where she is not only campaigning for the election but trying to prove her worth as a leader. Calling for Rudd to help her out will display that she is not up to the job. So this may backfire in other states, but ‘might’ gain some benefit in Qld.
leftwingpinko.
We are likeminded. I also say 80 seats. How did you reach that figure??
Whoever wins Week 4 will win the election.
In The Know – Labor don’t even need 52-48 going in to election day. If it’s 52-48 the night before it’ll be a whitewash. 51-49 comfortable, 50-50 is anyones but I think Labor will get up, just, 49-51 and it’s super tough.
[I am going to make a very unscientific prediction and say Labor will win with 80 seats.
Too optimistic?]
Not at all.
My current realistic range for Labor’s seats is 70-83. That is subject to change, of course.
We’re coming back.
TSOP
How about you put a firm number of seats. Your range is realistic but too broad.
I think team one of the big issues now is how Kevin Rudd is going to be seen in Queensland. That is the biggie, retain most seats there and its all over for the mad one.
KR knows that, he is so far ahead of those wankers in Labor Head Office in Sydney when it comes to strategy and campaigning (where the fuk is Hawker? ) let us face it, the campaign has been a disaster over all. Those priks who instigated the Rudd downfall will be looking very nervously over their shoulders now. Rudd will do his own thing over the next two weeks, but never miss a beat on the essentials, that will help the govt winning.
let us not worry about tonights poll, its the next two weeks that are important…we have the best of the best doing the running in the two states that need him most, I would rather be labor than Coalition from Sunday.
As an aside…how big the media pack following Kevin on Sunday v the media at the Coalition launch on Sunday? Any doubts about Rudds abilty to campaign, let me know.
Have a great weekend…it really is not all over 🙂
I think one mistake people are making is they are treating the weeks like tennis sets. While it is good to “win” the weeks. It isn’t a scoreboard. It’s the latter half of the game you need to win. (The scoreboard is not until the 21st)
OK as it sits, even before tonights polling, I have ALP at 78 seats.
Through thorough scientific analysis of all avaialble data.
Actually, its the number Keating won in 1993 so its lucky.
I think it will really all come down to each party’s marginal seats campaigns. For no reason in particular I suspect Labor has the edge here, so even with a 2-3% swing against them they may retain government.
Anything could happen in the next two weeks. It’s either party’s to win at this point.
Pebbles
I’d prefer the 83 to the 70, thanks!