Galaxy marginal seats poll; Nielsen 51-49 to Coalition

We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.

UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

695 comments on “Galaxy marginal seats poll; Nielsen 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [Not at all.

    My current realistic range for Labor’s seats is 70-83. That is subject to change, of course]

    This is beginning to sound a bit like that Frasier episode where Martin blames his tightening pants on the dryer, Frasier believes that Daphne is not having sex with her boyfriend in her room and Niles believes that the invitation is in the mail.

  3. Russell Braddon’s ‘Naked Island’ was, IMHO, not a masterpiece. It was, in fact, much like Rohan Rivett’s ‘Behind Bamboo’. Both were full of rather tendentious crap that was very appealing to the Australians of the time.

    Both were firmly embedded in the racist and imperialist values of their time. Both were also embedded in a rather silly Australian nationalism. Neither showed the slightest comprehension that, by failing to protect the colonized people from invasion, the British Empire was gone. Neither showed the slightest inkling that the failure of the British Empire condemned thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of chinese to their deaths.

    Neither showed much comprehension of the brilliance of the Japanese in defeating three times the number of enemies in a shockingly short period of time. Neither came even close to acknowledging that more Australians ran and got drunk on Singapore than actually did any fighting.

    And, here lies the rub, both were virulently anti-boer!

  5. #532

    Big call but I am not sure you are right. Still recon we will win with 76-79 seats, Can’t see how we will get over 85 seats from here. For the Libs to do that, we are talking landslide territory and this is not a landslide election.

  7. I recall the WA and NT elections where Labor received an unexpected surprise. People were assuming that Labor would get over the line even with bad polling. In the NT only a few votes got Labor over the line.

    So this disbelief that Abbott could actually win, and that Labor will ‘of course’ come back and win will not happen by itself. It will require good campaigning from here on and stuff ups from Abbott.

    This means that Labor has to do something from here to reverse the polls, if they don’t they will lose. I would not be putting faith in any incumbency effect.

  9. [TSOP

    How about you put a firm number of seats. Your range is realistic but too broad.]

    I won’t give an official one until Monday of the last week. Right now, I can only make an arbitrary guess…

    80 ALP

  11. I’m praying that most of the marginal seat swinging punters aren’t really paying much attention to the election and probably won’t do so until the last couple of days. After all, it is footy season.

  16. [I’m praying that most of the marginal seat swinging punters aren’t really paying much attention to the election and probably won’t do so until the last couple of days. After all, it is footy season.]

    Most of the country aren’t really paying much attention.

  19. I reckon we need to wait until the Rudd factor flows through before we seriously start to worry.

    Seeing Julia and Kev together on Saturday/Sunday may well be the thing that decides how the disenfranchised (over Rudd’s deposition) will react — i.e. come back into the fold, or stay away.

    If they can add a positive announcement to that get together, it should make those people feel that maybe all is right with the world.

    The press are going to move on from the BER bullbutter, they’ll only carry on about anything so long as they think it rates. Julia and Kev together will rate for the MSM, it just depends on how they front up and how the press cover it.

    If Kev and Julia’s pressers are anything to go by, the hatchet has been buried (to an extent at least). They are calling each other by first name (Julia had gone from saying Mr Rudd, to Kevin, today on radio in Melbourne — and that familiarity suggests that they have made some kind of peace and feel more at ease with each other). If they can present this to the press, it will be difficult for them to spin it any other way.

  21. It must be time to trade out of Rabbott. This is as good s it gets to a high point for him with 2 weeks to go.

    *Laughing all the way to the bank*

  22. gloryconsequence

    Poss has Labor on 75 without this poll. I think it’s dead level now. A hung parliament is a genuine possibility.

  26. [I remember Latham seldom trailing in the polls in 2004. Then bam, he lost.]

    Yes. If there is one point I will hammer home, it’s never underestimate the power of incumbency!

  27. I would like to comment on a couple of things. My first is a question.

    Now the last Neilsen poll was 52 -48 for the Coalition. This mean that there has been a very slight improvement for Labor in this poll with 51 to 49. While this may not mean that the ALP will win at least they are not going backwards.

    The second is a comment. I was an ALP member and for a variety of reasons, personal and also because of the rightward drift of the party I let my membership lapse, I felt the ALP wasn’t representing my political values anymore.

    Despite this I wasn’t one that disparaged the ALP. Whether we like it or not for a Party to win it has to ‘compromise’ somewhat to get the majority of consensus.

    The Greens can be happy with 12%, but Labor can’t. I also have been somewhat irritated by the ‘holier than thou’ attitude of the Greens in some instances.

    However I am considering voting Green at this election. Why? Because despite my misgivings about them I think we need something to show that a proportion of the electorate is unhappy with the way the main parties have been going. My clincher is Asylum Seekers. We know about the Coalition, but when I see navy ship in an ALP ad to show that ‘we are protecting our borders’ I shudder. There is nothing about protecting borders of course, it is the premise of why that is done that I don’t agree with.

    When I came to Australia in the 70’s we had Malcolm Fraser who managed to manage the ‘boat people’ from Vietnam without the type of hysteria we see now. From that I thought that Australia was one of the most enlightened countries in the world, a country I felt proud becoming a citizen of. In 2001 all of that came to an end.

    So we hear the commentariat writing about the ‘battlers’ and how the major party have to accomodate their policies for them. Well I would like to somehow have them wanting to accomodate the people who want a progressive Australia for a change. And for better or for worse the Greens offer the only viable alternative to show that at the moment.

  31. Atticus @ 519

    [How I envy any Bludger who can discuss this election with like-minded relatives. All my rels are avid right-wingers.]

    My Dad is still a US citizen despite having lived in Australia since 1951. He hadn’t voted in a US election since 1948 when he was last living there, but in 2008 he was determined to vote for Barack Obama mainly because he had always thought that he would never live to see a black man as his President, and he felt he just had to be part of it.

    I checked out his details online, and he was still eligible to vote in his old parish in Pennsylvania, so I got the paperwork done, and he re-registered to vote, then proudly asked me to drive him in to the US Consulate in Sydney so he could fill out his vote personally, as he didn’t want to lodge it online, as he could have done. I can assure you that it was a proud day for him and a proud day for me to be with him, and he was overjoyed when Obama won the election.

  34. Gloryconsequence #541

    Yep, I stand corrected. 52-48 was always a figure I used to illustrate a comfortable win. The main thing that’s around 51-49 to us. As I said before, if it is a tight election we will win. If it skews towards the coalition its Abbott as Pm.

  35. Onya’ Bernie!

    [Former Reserve Bank governor Bernie Fraser has launched a scathing attack on the Coalition’s economic management credentials.

    Mr Fraser has accused the Opposition of “brazen” and unprecedented scaremongering over Australia’s debt levels.

    In a speech in Sydney, he has also criticised the Coalition’s stand against the mining tax.

    And he says its opposition to the Federal Government’s stimulus spending is a “blot” on its economic record.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/06/2976161.htm

  36. my say

    the wash is rabbott ran ran ran,and whilst running a lot punters decided to listen

    this period is the current poll coverage.

    when he heard mr rudd was out and hunting wabbitts,well he bolted down to have tea with ratty and the crew

    the polls still have to reflect the yum cha

    IMO

  37. Well, you have done better than me Peter Young.

    I got into Julia at 1.26. I could not see the electorate voting out our first female PM for that Nut Abbott!

    Still, I will cut my losses if things become dire 🙁

  38. I suspect that the public are becoming more opinion poll savvy and are happy to use surveys to send signals. Particularly in their responses at the early stage of a campaign (or mid-term).These last two weeks will be fascinating. It really is “game on”. Survey responses from now on will be more grounded and reflect reality.

    I doubt that the Greens will actually poll 13% – these high poll numbers will reduce in the lower house when voters are confronted by the reality of a two party state.

    With Kevin and Julia campaigning together for Labor we may well see a barnstorming finish that will delight the true believers. This time next week we will have a really clear idea on who has the momentum.

  39. Yes. If there is one point I will hammer home, it’s never underestimate the power of incumbency!

    Or: Never underestimate the punters propensity to flee from a basketcase at the last minute.

  41. when was this taken the man by the name of IN THE KNOW said dont expect anything better till monday.

    do we have any one here actully lives in any of those marginals in qld nsw.

  42. The momentum seems to be with the Liberals but I can’t think why.

    JGillard is not cutting through at all and in fact since taking over people have left Labor which means she tends to have a negative effect so far. Abbott for some reason is starting to look a better option to JGillard. I think Howard coming onto the scene will give Abbott some need credibility and sense of being an old safe pair of hands. Believe it or not.

  45. [The most disturbing and frightening Liberal Party campaign advertisement I’ve ever seen. ]

    The robot is talking about local govt issues! Is he for real?

    I just don’t get how people like that can win. (shakes head — mystified)

  47. I am going to go out on a limb and call this week a win for us, not because of any major goals scored, but because we’ve just come out on top on points and we’ve set ourselves up in a good position for next week.

  48. [With Kevin and Julia campaigning together for Labor we may well see a barnstorming ]

    Indeed, they may have to actually fly bi-planes to get something back.

  49. [I reckon we need to wait until the Rudd factor flows through before we seriously start to worry.]

    All we’ve heard for 2 weeks has been “we just have to wait until the xxxx factor flows through”. First it was Gillard’s fiery response to the leaks, then it was Gillard taking over her campaign, then it was Abbott’s “no means no” comment, now it’s the Rudd factor. All of these things aren’t making the much of a difference. Gillard is having a significant time cutting through. I think a lot of people are expecting an 80+ seat win, I really don’t think that will happen.

  50. reflect the yum char must be after the rudd apprearance.?

    i feel quite calm about this do any of you it a bit like the 50/ 50 realy give or take a few points any one else think its all up from here

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