Stuff in the papers

With just under half the campaign to go:

• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.

• Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).

• Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.

• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”

• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).

• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,872 comments on “Stuff in the papers”

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  1. victoria,

    All of them!

    Labor being desperate to hold on to Government means they are serious.

    This is not a negative.

  2. [Two core motivations for journos (yes, guilty as charged): laziness and career….

    Two key questions: what would News gain from an Abbott-led administration?, and what would the ABC and its journos lose from going against Uncle Rupe’s manifest grain? First answer: dunno but I could start with pay-tv favours and the international tax-payer funded news channel that’s up for grabs right now. Second answer: there’s only room for a couple of Red Kerrys even at Aunty. The rest of us are going to have to consider darkening the News Ltd threshold one day or the other. Or get out of the game.
    Posted by: macadamia man | Aug 05, 2010 at 02:40 PM ]

    Comment on Dunlop’s article at The Drum – the last 2 sentences may explain what we are seeing at the ABC at the moment.

  4. I can recall briefly being *very* supportive of Gillard’s leadership in the first week of the campaign, and then despairing of the campaign direction like most of us. But I don’t recall briefly advocating a return to Rudd at any stage.

  5. [How many Liberals have said that Rudd campaigning with Julia “smacks of desperation”?]

    Funny thing is they are right, I haven’t seen as much desperation in the Liberal camp for a long time.

  6. FrankL

    Brilliant post. But I hope the comment about the regular Greek Chorus doesn’t refer to the Greek philosphers here as we are all impartial. 😀

  8. I don’t know about this continual reference by Rudd and Gillard to the possibility of Abbott ‘sliding’ into office. Personally I think that ‘slithering’ would be a more appropriate term.

  12. [Well, the Libs Health policy is just an all round bottler, all up. They have not got a clue and how long can they go on dodging any examination of what they propose?]

    Harry – heard someone on radio say today that it was really the AMA’s work and that’s why they came out and gave it a big tick. I’m surprised Dutton didn’t talk to KO’B.
    What are they frightened of.

  13. I think the very fact that Rupert Murdoch and his media empire exists is the very proof that time travel will never be possible (or that temporal paradoxes are)

  14. [“Bradley Effect” (a supposed US electoral phenomenon where black candidates do well in opinion polls, just to do much worse on election day.)]

    A bit like the Greens here?

  15. How badly will silly Barnaby Joyce’s brawl with the Adelaide Adervtiser effect the Libs in S.A
    I read that he has rejected a suggested debate wit the local girl…Penny Wong ..on the fate of the Murray River
    I see that the “Tiser” has really slammed Joyce…who spoke of “parochial policies” in re the river, which is seen as an insult in S.A
    Will Abbott have to intervene to shut Barnaby up ?
    Barnaby was very rude and dismissive of S.A…and the press is in full cry !
    …and it’s a Murdoch rag ..so…????

  17. Huh?

    Libs are scrapping the filter aren’t they?)

    (And I also believe that is consensus opinion of most people here? Don’t back away now).

    On this they are right, *sigh* too many other issues to counterbalance it..

  19. [Apparently Abbott said something about internet filtering can’t work unless emails are filtered!]

    Interesting. He is very sneaky to not comment and give the impression of playing the libertarian card here…

  20. [TSOP, didn’t Abbott offer Turnbull to the front bench, isn’t that like the same thing?]

    Turnbull offered himself to the front bench. Abbott said no.

    It’s the complete opposite.

  22. alias is right. The plotters must have thought Rudd would leave the Parliament. The fact that he has stayed has added to the crushing awkwardness of the situation.

    Having said that, even I (a Liberal) can’t agree with TPS’s negative (for Labor) summation of the Rudd Resurrection. Unity always looks better than disunity. Concord is always nicer than discord. People will undoubtedly think it a bit weird to see Kev and Julia sucking up to each other, but that’s still a lot better than an atmosphere of menace, or distance.

  24. deblonay, the fact that Birmingham stepped in to proxy for Barnaby, show it clearly has done damage to the Coalition.

    The Ragvertiser/Sunday Fail at this point have read the writing on the wall and are resolved to just telling the readers what they want to hear. It’s not like the Libs have much to lose here (although if they don’t be careful, it could hurt them Senate-wise)

  28. FrankL is right about Rudd. He now cannot come out smelling of anything other than roses after this election.

    If Labor wins, then Rudd saved them.

    If Labor loses, then they shouldn’t have got rid of him.

  30. Diogs

    Turnbull = Foreign Affairs???

    Would keep him out of the country a bit 🙂

    Andrew Robb to become the Minister for Administrative Affairs 🙂 lol!

  31. Thinks have gone very quiet here in Wakefield in terms of candidate leaflets. Think all we have had is postal vote letters from Labor and postal vote letter with a leaflet from Libs. Obviously not being treated as a marginal seat despite being Liberal in 2004-7. Very little advertising in local papers.

  33. [To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Thursday, August 5, 2010 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
    deblonay, the fact that Birmingham stepped in to proxy for Barnaby, show it clearly has done damage to the Coalition]

    how many seats are there in s a and with this with barny could they all go labor

  34. [To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Thursday, August 5, 2010 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
    deblonay, the fact that Birmingham stepped in to proxy for Barnaby, show it clearly has done damage to the Coalition]

    how many seats are there in s a and with this with barny could they all go labor

  35. The libs are wedged on the internet filter. They’re a party of right-wing bible-bashing nut-bags. Their support for a non-filtered internet is as believable as their policy on climate-change (which Abbott thinks is ‘absolute crap’) and their support for a non workchoices industrial relations system.

    They cannot be believed, because on these issues, the fact is, they’re flat-out lying.

  39. [Labor have put the filter on hold for 12 months. Maybe it will not proceed either in the long term.]

    Well the Greens won’t support it, I know that. I think the issue is probably dead.

  40. Glen you Goose it makes no difference if you put the Sex Party 2nd or nine hundred and second. You really didn’t vote for the sex Party at all if you placed them after the major that you voted for.

  41. If the unexpected happens and the Liberals win govrnment, it will be the “Iranian effect”. Only question will be whether it will take over 30 years to get rid of them.

  42. [“Slip slide coincides with slimy and unscrupulous — all things that those in the electorate might subtly suspect about Abbott … I know a lot of women feel that way.”]

    It is similar to the language they described Howard – a clever and cunning politician

  43. Glen

    You can be sure Turnbull won’t get Climate Change.

    And it’s great news the filter is dead. That’s the Greens and Libs against so it has died and gone to crappy policy heaven.

  45. Gusface

    I have only been really happy with 2 polices.

    ISP blocked
    Mental Health

    How is this blowing my cover?

    If they are good policies I’ll say it. Just as Rudd had excellent policies on organ donation.

    I still dont think Abbott will win the election though.

    [Jim Hacker eat your heart out!]

    Totally maybe Joe Hockey would be better for the Tele 😀

  47. TPS, re: Catch 22, it’s just one of the book to film conversions that had me entirely engaged from beginning to end.

  48. [Abbott ’sliding’ into office. Personally I think that ’slithering’ would be a more appropriate term.]

    Sliding infers that the way was greased for him (Rudd was referring to the MSM here I reckon — at least that is how I read it, or wanted to read it).

    Slithering implied being self-propelled. Abbott has had such a cushy ride, I don’t thik he;s put much energy into anything.

  50. The Liberals have just gained a whole heap of votes from younger people, now that they have officially opposed the government’s Internet filter. Twitter and Facebook are firing…

    Conroy is a huge thorn in Labor’s side.

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