With just under half the campaign to go:
• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.
• Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).
• Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.
• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.
• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”
• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).
• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.
[how many seats are there in s a and with this with barny could they all go labor]
That’s the problem. There’s only 2 realistic pickups here: Sturt and Boothby. I mean we could make the Liberals sweat a little in Mayo and Grey but they’re very unlikely pickups. Barker is completely out of the question.
only letter box material has been from my local julie collins i remember last time i had so many liberal brochures that made there way in to the bin as i came back up the drive from the letter box not this time
during the tas election they where so short well they must of been they where sending out letters asking for money a week or so before the election with how to vote cards one labor voter was so angry he took it to his local labor member s office
[ You really didn’t vote for the sex Party at all if you placed them after the major that you voted for.]
Not quite true. It could make a difference in respect of the final seat, if the contest for the last seat does not involve the major you voted for.
Is this Monthly essay by Mark Aarons of which Tony Jones speaks going to be a problem? The Hollow Men, about the brutalities of the NSW right infusing themselves into federal Labor. Surely the Libs will seize this.
Yes, and another word that shares the first three letters with cunning.
How about in the seat of Melbourne..
1 Libs
2 Sex Party
3 Greens
whose gonna win then?
i wonder why tasmania is so labor it was not always like that in the days of hodgeman and goodluck denison is around 12 percent the others around 4
and i think bass is about 2 pse will correct me i am sure but most think they will all hold
Noocat@1700
Which is rapidly being pooh-poohed on Twitter once you point out they won’t have a nice fast NBN to use.
yno
Posted Thursday, August 5, 2010 at 10:12 pm | Permalink
“Ron,
Fair comment. You’ve got to think that today has helped Labor, on the whole.”
well i blogged earlier he should been put in cabinet on 24/6 , i blogged for days he’d be back and kill leak and disunity BS , and help Q’ld …AND restore part of encumbancy advantage
so i’ve always wanted Kevin back
and back on 24/6 Kevin said he would campaign anyway !
TODAY I called for him to b made FA today , capitalize on good news week so its NOT a 24 hr wonder , but nothing has been announsed , pity
Noocat
It’s no coincidence that Hockey announced it on Hack, which has a predominantly young audience (apart from me). Hockey was very good actually.
He said that the ETS was a Rolls Royce and the Libs were giving the voters a Commodore which was better than the no car at all which Labor was providing.
Labor really stuffed up by not having a car. 😉
I wonder how Mark Latham is feeling tonight. 😀
my say, I feel sorry for Tassie. You guys are off the radar. We have no more seats to gain from there and the Libs don’t think it’s feasible enough to bother with. If our campaign improves, you might see some attempts to shore up the vote to get an extra ALP Senator (at the expense of a Lib.)
It is certainly good news that the tentacles of the Queensland National Party are reaching into South Australia and making the Tory candidates down there unelectable too. No doubt they will create a lot more damage before they are finished. Fighting with Liberals is their sole reason for being.
Paul Murray – former editor of The West Australian. A bigger boofhead than Mark Latham and more opinionated than Paul Kelly. Continues to give West Australians a bad name.
Rudd lives Chifley’s dictum …
“Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the Party.”
Or as Lawson wrote…
“In truth at times I don’t know what the men are drivin’ at,
But I’ve been Union 30 year, and I’m to old to Rat!”
Both sum up the difference between Rudd and Latham.
Both also deserve to not be bowdlerised with gender neutrality, in any case the fact of a woman Labor P.M. makes it unnecessary!
confessions.
Will Sly news get Latham back on for further discussion and analysis?
[The Hollow Men, about the brutalities of the NSW right infusing themselves into federal Labor. Surely the Libs will seize this.]
It would be a bit of a convoluted reference to cite.
Barnaby Joyce was on ABC Radio 891 this morning debating with Penny Wong – heard some of it and I don’t think Barnaby did well. If the Advertiser keep belting him it will certainly cost Libs votes as its a hot button issue here. You can’t be protecting the Nat irrigators in Qld, NSW and Victoria and helping the River Murray.
Dinsdale Piranha @ 1648
[Actually I frettened to nail their ‘eads to the floor.]
Then screw their pelvises to a cakestand?
How’s your brother, Doug? Any man who can use dramatic irony, metaphor, bathos, puns, parody, hyperbole, litotes and satire must be considered vicious and cruel, but is he fair?
HSO the torso being chopped off was pretty effective as was the guts scene. Also quite liked the changing portraits. Er, that’s it.
steve
The Tiser is going all out on Barnaby. It’s a war now. They have done this a few times in the last couple of years and they normally win in the end or severely damage their opponent.
Just ask Atko how well his war with the Tiser went.
*returns from long RWLH dinner*
Wot no poll tonight?
[The Liberals have just gained a whole heap of votes from younger people, now that they have officially opposed the government’s Internet filter.]
Conroy very stupid and Emerson was also on Q&A. They should have known the Libs would come out with this because the Libs know they are not going to lose the Christian vote over it.
If those young votes are in the right places then Labor has been very foolish about it.
They need to come out quickly and say it’s dead as it is instead of leaving the ’12 month delay’ in place.
leon@1714
Wrong 🙂
The Paul Murray on Sky is NOT the West “Columnist”, but a Jock on Triple M.
Dartboard that vote is Green and the Greens will win Melbourne
It’s funny that a Nat would cause trouble for the SA Libs. In the state lower House we had a Nat MP who sided with the Labor government. The Nats have been a constant thorn in the side of the Libs in Barker and Grey (though they’ve never toppled them.)
It’s really political envy. The Nats cannot seem to get over the fact that our Non-Labor parties got their shit together ages ago and united (way before the Liberal party even existed) and have tried, to no avail to get a piece of the state’s rural action for years. It seems their fight has gone though, they didn’t even field Senate candidates this time round.
BH
How should Labor announce filter is dead?
[ *returns from long RWLH dinner* ]
What the hell does H stand for ?
[ The Hollow Men, about the brutalities of the NSW right infusing themselves into federal Labor. Surely the Libs will seize this. ]
The Hollow Men had a PM who lived in Sydney and flew from the Lodge to Canberra and back on sitting days
Catch 22 is my favourite all-time book. I’ve just finished re-reading Portnoy’s Complaint. Also fantastic even though my mother was not jewish. I think Abbott’s mother probably was though.
Diogenes (1656)
I have no problems with most Greek philosophers. Only the pompous ones who regularly descend from the Mount clutching stone tablets to issues the days talking points to his mindless acolytes gives me the irrits.
Speaking of polls. Doesn’t “Ghostwhovotes” usually give a heads up of any polls?
BH 1722
Lots of young people I know who are against the filter, definitely will never support an Abbott government. They’re not that stupid.
Diogenes, one thing you can be sure of is the Queensland Nations always fight to the death and invariably against the first Liberal to poke his head up out of the trenches. They usually start by shooting themselves in the foot and then become mean and nasty to those closest to them.
so some Green blogger thinks th young will switch to Libs oover net filter , to same Liberal Party of CC deniests and a liberal party who will put there jobs benefits at risk via W/C
victoria: I wish they would just so I can see his face!
HSO and Shrike – I enjoyed the book but unfortunately saw the film first. Could barely make head nor tail of it. Passed the book on to our kids and they realised why their parents kept mentioning Catch 22 situations. A great book but haven’t been able to watch the film again.
[The Liberals have just gained a whole heap of votes from younger people, now that they have officially opposed the government’s Internet filter.]
Rubbish. People who care about such things are already committed partisans. They might gain a few libertarian votes, but they’ll lose a few “worried parent” votes. Elections are not won on esoteric elite issues.
To coin a phrase, “it’s the economy, stupid.” (And WorkChoices, which is really part of the economy.)
confessions
Are you referring to having Latham on sly?
Yes, Lib preferences will elect the red Trojan Horse Bandt – the anti-democracy infiltrator of the Greens!
Libs electing a Trot makes about as much sense as the Greens voting down the CPRT!
short flight
[ so some Green blogger thinks th young will switch to Libs oover net filter , to same Liberal Party of CC deniests and a liberal party who will put there jobs benefits at risk via W/C
]
Unfortunately there is a heap of young people out there who don’t care about such issues….but will go to the barricades over “internet filter”. Don’t ask me to explain it….its just an observation.
Adam it was a good idea but the Libs coulda wedged Labor on it much much earlier.
Still better late than never.
Psephos – how are the RWLHs feeling tonight?
[Lots of young people I know who are against the filter, definitely will never support an Abbott government. They’re not that stupid.]
I’m opposed to the filter, think LAbor were stupid for introducing it. But I’d never vote Liberal. If the filter were a vote changer for me, I’d vote greens. But climate change and stable government is what I’m more interested in, so the greens and liberals are out.
[Lots of young people I know who are against the filter, definitely will never support an Abbott government. They’re not that stupid.]
TSOP – glad to hear that. I just wondered whether they couldn’t list the sites to be blocked. I don’t want to start an ‘filter war’ again but is there a good reason to have them kept secret?
Psephos: there is a Mark Aarons “former NSW Labor advisor” on Lateline dumping a bucket on Arbib/Bitar. Do you know who he is and/or what his beef is?
The most likely thing that will happen with the anti-filter crowd is that instead of voting Labor 1, they’ll vote Greens 1 but their prefs will still go to Labor. As I said, those who are that concerned by a filter are as equally concerned by what Tony Abbott might do.
steve
Just look at the front page of AdelaideNow. That’s has been there all day which is most unusual. They have a petition, a poll, a game of “spot the Barnaby in the water” and banner headlines. They don’t give up there.
Pyne and Southcott will be in serious damage control. And as I said earlier, I heard Southcott is going to lose based on internal polling. And Pyne is on the brink and this could tip him over.
Water is the number 1 Federal issue here. We are very parochial and hate being ignored. And Barnaby is paying the price. I should add that the Tiser is a terrible paper but it isn’t very biased IMHO.
Mark Aarons is a true patriot.