The Australian offers geographic and demographic breakdowns of the last two Newspoll surveys, achieving reasonable samples from each subset due to the unusually large samples (around 1700) Newspoll uses during the election period. Age breakdowns offer the interesting finding that Labor has bounced back under Gillard in the 35-49 bracket, but if anything gone backwards among the young and old – or rather, remained stable on the primary vote while the Coalition has picked up a few points. The gender gap is four points on voting intention, seven on Gillard’s approval rating and ten on preferred prime minister, and appears to have widened steadily through the year on Tony Abbott’s approval.
The state breakdowns give us a useful opportunity to confirm their findings with Nielsen, the Fairfax papers having conducted a similar exercise from the three most recent polls (extending it to four for South Australia and Western Australia to boost the sample). I also offer a third measure of what the betting markets think, which involves a rough estimate of the statewide swings suggested by the odds SportingBet and SportsBet are offering on individual seats (more on this subject from occasional Poll Bludger commenter Dr Good). The table shows Labor’s two-party preferred vote:
| 2007 | Newspoll | Nielsen | Bookies | |
| NSW | 53.7% | 49% | 51% | 53% |
| Vic | 54.3% | 59% | 54% | 54% |
| Qld | 50.4% | 46% | 47% | 47% |
| WA | 46.7% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| SA | 52.4% | 56% | 51% | 53% |
Some further (alleged) intelligence courtesy of internal polling:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal polling in NSW has them doing “well” in “about five Labor-held marginal seats”, which include Macquarie and Robertson and to a lesser extent Dobell. The other two presumably include Gilmore, with a fifth harder to identify: the pendulum suggests Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and Page, where in each case the markets favour Labor. However, they Liberals were also said to be in trouble in Hughes and Macarthur. In Queensland, Leichardt and Dawson are said to be at risk, but Labor looks set to hold Longman and Flynn.
• The West Australian reports Nationals polling has Wilson Tuckey leading them in O’Connor by just 51-49, from primary votes of 38 per cent for Tuckey, 23 per cent for Nationals candidate Tony Crook, 21 per cent for Labor and 8 per cent for the Greens, with 10 per cent undecided.
• Markus Mannheim of the Canberra Times reports Liberal polling in the ACT shows the Greens vote actually falling since the 2007 election, which if accurate would put their dream of a Senate seat well beyond reach, if the Democrats’ decision to direct preferences to the Liberals hadn’t done it already.
We’ve had conflicting reports in recent days on party finances and campaign spending:
• Richard Gluyas of The Australian today reports the Liberals are struggling to raise funds. A media-buying source is quoted saying Labor ad spending has been especially conspicuous in the past week, with $19 million in advertising commitments for the length of the campaign splitting “55:45 in favour of Labor”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald, by contrast, reports Liberal television advertising has been 51 per cent more active than Labor’s, “as measured by audience exposure”:
Labor officials wondered aloud where a cash-strapped Liberal Party had managed to find the money, an answer which will not be disclosed officially for a year and a half. And the Liberals were struck by the fact that Labor had all but withdrawn from the advertising market in the second week of the campaign. After an active first week, Labor advertising airtime fell to zero in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, and near zero in Sydney, in week two. Labor continued normal campaign-level advertising only in Brisbane, presumably reflecting the high concentration of at-risk seats in Queensland. In a week in which Labor was taking a hiding in the news media and in the polls, the party decided to stop trying to reach voters with paid advertising as it husbanded its resources. “Labor have obviously come off for a reason,” Mr Durrant said. “I can’t see that it would be because they have run out of money but more likely it is a strategic decision to perhaps blitz the market in the final stretches when people are closer to making a decision, which could be quite smart given how much coverage and PR is being generated by them both.”
I can only say that the the Liberal Party doesn’t seem starved for funds in Western Australia. As well as running highly visible campaigns even in Labor’s safest seats, there is talk the state branch has found $1 million to spare for the national campaign.
So much for what they’re doing with their own money – here’s some of what they have planned for ours.
Petrie (Labor 2.3%): Last week Labor promised to spend $742 million building a fabled rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring. The Liberals responded by bringing forward their own planned announcement that $750 million would be put into the project. This evidently came as news to LNP Petrie candidate Dean Teasdale, whose initial reaction to Labor’s announcement was that this was not the time for such an expensive project. Tony Koch of The Australian notes the rail link has been the subject of fruitless election promises for 40 years, and it was first proposed as far back as the 1890s. The state government dropped plans to build the link six years ago after a study suggested it would be unviable, but last year was reported to be pushing to get the project “shovel ready” so it could be considered for federal funds. It emerged as an issue in the state election last March when Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson flew solo with a promise it would be built by 2016, causing great embarrassment to her party.
Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%), Dawson (Labor 2.4%), Flynn (Labor 2.3%), Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%) and Hinkler (Nationals 1.5%): Queensland’s regional coastal seats were clearly the target of Tony Abbott’s announcement last week that they would limit the future expansion of marine parks, by requiring “peer-reviewed scientific evidence of a threat to marine diversity”. The announcement was made at Mackay in Dawson. Mackay has also been the scene of a bidding war over the construction of a new ring road: Wayne Swan promised $10 million for a feasibility study into a new ring road one week into the campaign, and Tony Abbott trumped him two days later by promising $30 million for design and engineering work.
Hasluck (Labor 1.0%) and Swan (notional Labor 0.3%): Labor last week promised to provide $480 million of $600 million sought by the Western Australian government to improve roads around Perth Airport, which will include widening Tonkin Highway to a six-lane freeway. There was also an as yet uncosted promise to provide funding to an upgrade of 4 kilometres of Great Eastern Highway.
Bass (Labor 1.0%): Last week Labor promised $11.5 million in finding for Launceston’s flood levees as part of the Natural Disaster Resilience Program.
Sturt (Liberal 0.9%) and Makin (Labor 7.7%): The Prime Minister last week announced $100 million in funding for stormwater harvesting and reuse, the first cab off the rank being a $10 million contribution to a pitch for $33 million by councils in eastern Adelaide. With the councils to fund half the cost, this left a $6 million hole which Labor wanted filled by a previously reluctant state government. The next day Tony Abbott trumped Labor by promising to put up the full $16.5 million. The Coalition has also promised $7.5 million to improve Fosters and Gorge roads in Sturt.
Gilmore (notional Labor 0.2%): Late last week Tony Abbott promised $20 million to upgrade a notorious section of the Princes Highway between Ulladulla and Batemans Bay.
Legal action:
• The GetUp!-sponsored legal challenge against the law requiring the electoral roll to close on the day the writs are issued will be heard in the High Court tomorrow. According to the Australin Financial Review, GetUp! will be supported by most of the legal team that acted for Vickie Roach in the 2007 action that overturned a Howard government law prohibiting prisoners from voting.
• A “Tasmanian antique dealer” has launched a legal challenge against Eric Abetz’s right to sit in parliament, arguing he remains a citizen of Germany, from which he emigrated in 1961 at the age of three. Constitutional expert and Labor preselection aspirant George Williams tells The Hobart Mercury there are “numerous pitfalls for any politician born overseas, or whose parents or even grandparents had been born overseas, to fall into, unawares and without intent, which could make them ineligible to sit in Parliament”.
Finally, there has as always been some interesting wash-up from the unveiling of Senate group voting tickets on Sunday, which I have summarised for an article in Crikey. Note the launch of the new awareness-raising website Below the Line, on which voters are encouraged to order and then print out their own Senate “how to vote” card.
Free hip upgrades perhaps.
Or perhaps Julia will allow all oldies to pick a youngy slacker of their choice and whip them in the stocks.
The options are limitless.
the gorgeous mysay whose heart is always in the right place for her team. A very compassionate and caring person
[And I wonder how many of them think the earth is less than 10,000 years old.]
Yes, I wonder. The number would probably be disturbing if it was only known.
BK
This strategy by the coalition to target the retirees in the marginals in this way fits into my conspiracy theory somewhat.
I agree that pensioners can have a short memory and all, and have forgotten that the Labor govt gave them the biggest increase in pension, but because of the leak last week putting doubt on Julia’s support of this, has supposedly given the pensioners a new memory. The new memory is that Julia does not care about pensioners because she thinks there are no votes in it, and was against the pension increases.
This leak was a strategic leak……..
[can they advertise against a political party in an election campaign?]
Yes Parahelion and any attempts to outright prohibit political advertising would be subject to possible invalidation by the High Court, which as previously held that the Constitution provides for freedom of political communication. The Greens propose removing tax exemption from political advertising for corporations though which would be a start.
victoria
[Dee@924
Care to expand?]
Nope! Not this side of the election.
As far as laying off Rudd. I just think that the Coalition know it would not be a good look to attack a sick man.
What was your theory????
The big spending initiative by the Libs today was to give greater access to the Commonwealth Seniors Card.
Basically what they have said is “hey guys remember when Costello allowed you to put a lazy million into your super tax free? well we will now discount that as income”.
So now we have millionaire self funded retirees getting their scripts for $5.40 each. This will cost hundreds of million a year, yet the lazy media missed it. 🙁
victoria
[This leak was a strategic leak……..]
By whom?
Andrew,
[scorpio, i suppose i am biaised, but i have NEVER seen an OL get the free ride that Tone’s gotten. Its like they know he is crap so have to prop him up. They seemed in wk 1 to be getting into Abbott but after the 1st week poll, they have let up]
A classic example is not one media personality, not one, has saw fit to challenge Abbott over his accusation that it was a Labor plot to have him labelled over his “no doesn’t mean no” comments.
There are literally hundreds of similar examples.
[evan, you have been a comrade for years, but you need to get a grip. Rudd is gone and do you want PM Abbott or PM Gillard? Rudd supporters have 2 weeks to get on the train. Does Rudd want a senior cabinet post, or years on the opposition’s benches]
If Labor lose the election, then KR will more than likely just sit out the three months more he needs to get his full Parliamentary Superannuation on the back benches and resign and disappear into the community.
There’s no way that he will sit out up to 10 more years or so in opposition waiting for another crack at the big job.
If Abbott gets in this time he will be hard to shift. The Coalition will be coming in at a time of an improving economy and will claim all Labor’s hard work as their own and enhance their undeserved economic credibility.
They will be the first Govt for a long time if ever to improve their majority substantially after a first term and mostly on the back of sacrifice and hard yakka by Labor over the past two years eight months.
That so many moderate/left supporters (especially the Greens) and the stupid media hacks can’t see this really concerns me.
[Yes Parahelion and any attempts to outright prohibit political advertising would be subject to possible invalidation by the High Court, which as previously held that the Constitution provides for freedom of political communication. The Greens propose removing tax exemption from political advertising for corporations though which would be a start.]
Thanks Itep, does that mean that a Marijuana lobby group could advertise for a political party in an election campaign, a lobby group for a prohibited product.
[Come on Glen, winning is what’s it all about, what is ‘negative’, it depends which side you’re on, don’t go magnaminous now, you want Tony in the Lodge (don’t you?)]
Andrew you dont deserve to win based purely on a negative campaign.
Cuppa (980),
I don’t want Abbott in power. But I think the ALP deserves to be kicked out.
Yep, it’s a dilemma.
On climate change I think that the evidence is clear that Rudd and Gillard never ever intended any real action, and Gillard still does not intend to do anything.
As is clear from earlier discussions here, Rudd totally failed to convince even hard-core Labor supporters that climate change action is not fiddling about with a 5% cut, but requires moving close to zero emissions by 2050 (which means cuts of about 40% by 2020).
Abbott’s current plans are better than Wong’s CPRS. But of course Abbott’s will achieve very little.
It is reading the Labor supporters on this blog ridiculing the Greens policies that has made me realize just how much Rudd and Wong have failed.
So even with Abbott’s clear disbelief in climate change I can’t see how Gillard will do significantly better.
OTOH,
If Abbott is trying to shore up the Seniors vote, which is overwhelmingly the Coalition’s anyway, that leaves him with less for other sectors.
Of course, as I said before, I sincerely doubt that these policies will make it to Treasury before the deadline, so he will say whatever he likes.
[Any thoughts on the mystery ‘matilda’?]
Don’t know enough people here to know — but Matilda spells as badly as my say (no offense my say) and, I think, Ron (same Ron)
Rua – I hope the economists pick up on it but really it’s not going to land a lot of extra votes. They already vote for the Coalition.
Perahelion
Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 4:55 pm | Permalink
“Agree with this, tax the hell out of them, (smokers)”
Dumb move
We’ve had an anti labor voters 25% cig tax rise in April in a damn electon year (60% smokers vote labor , a A-S vacuum left in April (until Julia sensible off shore process idea) , a net filter transparansy unresolved (until Julia fixed it) , and a CC defer leaving a disasrter CC vacuum (instead of saying we’ll act on carbon price when 2011 Senate numbers change)
all 4 , MSN distorted Before that MSN mauled Labor over Insulaton 4 deaths & fires lies and Labor did not going very very public early brutal fightin those Insulation lies , as Labour’s HoR defense of it no one in public even saw
I’m tired of msn deciding what voters think
I see the publicly educated colaminer’s daughter has once again betrayed the children (and their parents/carers) being educated in the secular public education systems in favour of the non-secular elitist private systems. More and more money going to the loonie tune Baptists and Brethren so that they can teach their spawn that the earth is 6000 years old in air-conditioned comfort in small size classes and Kings etc build new boat sheds whilst the kids in publics schools sweat their way through the summer heat and freeze in winter cold in over crowded and dilapidated classrooms.
The palpably unfair and undemocratic postcode based funding system is going to be maintained until 2013. One despairs of this mob.
Michael, you do not need to justify your vote to us.
[Any thoughts on the mystery ‘matilda’?]
It is clearly my say. She even posted earlier that she was commenting on that blog.
[Rua – I hope the economists pick up on it but really it’s not going to land a lot of extra votes. ]
Where have the economists been this election? In 2007 campaign we saw an awful lot of Chris Richardson, but I haven’t sighted him at all this election.
[Thanks Itep, does that mean that a Marijuana lobby group could advertise for a political party in an election campaign, a lobby group for a prohibited product]
I’m pretty sure that would be allowable. The freedom of political communication is only limited though so there might possibly be certain types of things that could be prohibited.
Ron (995) said:
[To most Greens incl bob Brown , its 25% non negotaible CC cut]
This totally ignores reality as everyone knows that the Greens short term carbon tax proposals are only a small first step that fall far below a 25% cut.
But it is very clear, from here and from listening to Labor politicians in the media, that Labor strategy is to demonize the Greens, so such lies as Ron’s are not surprising.
I have said previously that I would’t comment on (religious) issues, however you’d be amazed how many people believe that the Earth is 10,000 (or similar) years old. And also believe that dinosaur bones are a hoax. I have some kooks like this in my own extended family and to say the least on the rare occasions that we get together it just becomes an amazing slugfest which usually ends in renewed estrangement.
If the current opposition win government then they’ll be there for at least 2 terms. They not make the same mistakes as Labor i.e.
they won’t admit to mistakes
they will increase government advertising
pork barreling will be back like never before
tax cuts will replace infrastructure projects
a new generation of right wing friendly public servants will be put in place
I could go on but I’ll leave it there except for this
CC will not receive any serious attention with simple, cheap cosmetic programs put in place to convince enough voters that the there is a plan
Any Green or undecided voter should take note – this election is about 6 to 9 years of a conservative government or 3 years of a Labor majority with Greens have the balance of power in the senate working together to formulate good policy.
Dee
Nope, not this side of the election either!!
I think whoever wins this election there is a very good chance that they’ll be defeated at the next one.
Hearing of “more pleasing news for Labor” in the first polls to be released this week. Make of it what you will.
[So even with Abbott’s clear disbelief in climate change I can’t see how Gillard will do significantly better.]
Calling it a “clear disbelief” is an understatement and avoidance. He thinks it’s ABSOLUTE CRAP. That’s not just a state of mere disbelief – it’s outright denial and RIDICULE of what’s supposed to be a core Greens issue.
There’s a big difference between someone simply not believing what you believe … and someone who outright ridicules your beliefs.
For a supposed climate change activist what COULD be worse than having an outright denier in the Lodge, supported by senior henchmen who are also in the denial/skeptic camp?
I think you’re nuts, if you’ll pardon my bluntness.
Thanks gloryconsequence. Your sources were pretty right on the money last time so let’s hope they are this time too 🙂
gloryconsequence
[Hearing of “more pleasing news for Labor” in the first polls to be released this week. Make of it what you will.]
I’ll be happy if the slide has been arrested. An swing back will be a bonus. I’m expecting a swing to Labor to be picked up in polls over the coming weekend.
my tip
53*47
It’s you who doesn’t understand. There is really no difference between the two parties (see the decision on education funding for just one example) except one is largely run by fundamentalist protestants and RCs and the other run a bunch of selfish hacks who are mostly RCs who creamed themselves when the Pope was here the other year.
Regarding the environment both parties have done virtually nothing about disasters like the cane toads and have presided over the greatest extinction of species in Australia in millenia. And look at the behavoiur of Mar’n Ferguson in relation to the Montara oil spill – his oly aim was to protect the polluters. The current ALP is nothing less than a disgrace and deserves to lose.
How is the ALP going to counter, the mining groups, the tobacco industry & the Murdoch empire?
[Hearing of “more pleasing news for Labor” in the first polls to be released this week. Make of it what you will]
In my view this is as certain as night following day, I still thing Julia will win it easily and all the teeth nashing here was a waste of time.
[Andrew you dont deserve to win based purely on a negative campaign.]
A commendable sentiment. But looking over their past three years, they’ve said NOTHING positive (except about the past). So if they do come up with something “positive” at the last minute, literally in the shadows of election day, I hardly think it should or would count in the overall picture of their uniform negativity.
dee
via the grassroots
🙂
MWH
Climate change aside — aren’t you even remotely frightened of what will happen to any CC policy funding should Hockey and Robb get hold of the purse strings?
You cannot cast a vote on just one issue.
We all have to live, as well as fix things like CC. Abbott is heading a team of fools.
We have the worlds healthiest and most prosperous economy. Of ALL countries, we will be in the best position to tackle climate change.
I am tipping that if ALP wins, after the election, the senate make-up will allow Labor & Greens to form a CPRS that will work and work well. They just can’t say anything now because all the flat earthers will be up in arms. After the election, with the mandate, a good CC policy will be able to be negotiated and the LIBs will not be able to do anything about it.
Think it out!
Even 51-49 is good news. The primary needs to be 39+.
My tip: Newspoll 53/47
My tip: Australian Page One Lead: Abbott within striking distance.
ltep,
As I’m in a very safe Liberal seat, and thus my lower house vote makes no difference, I’ll be voting against the sitting member. (If I was in a safe Labor seat I would also vote against the sitting member, and thus take a deep breath and preference the Liberals.)
I would love to be in Melbourne where I could vote Green and it might make a difference!
If I was in a Liberal or Labor swinging seat I would have to think about things much more.
PPL
1.5b Mental Health Policy
2 policies that are very positive though Cuppa to suggest these arent would be hilarious.
PV is the biggest thing I think for the polls.
If Labor is at or above 40 then you’d be happy as a Laborite.
If Labor is in the 30s I’d be worried if I were a Laborite.
Likewise if the Tories are closer to 45 then they’d be feeling good but anything below 40 shocking and in the low 40s not too flash.
[My tip: Newspoll 53/47
My tip: Australian Page One Lead: Abbott within striking distance.]
Don’t think so, (Page lead that is) if it’s 53/47 they may as well cancel the campaign, it’s all over.
[There is really no difference between the two parties ]
Well one clear difference, based on your comments the past few days, is that Labor are prepared to embrace religious diversity in its candidates, whereas the Liberals are prepared to use a person’s religion against them.
Tories are hoping for a Galaxy 😀
Laborites are hoping for a FTF Morgan 😀
Newspoll won’t be out until Monday. The polls gloryconsequence is referring to will be Morgan and Galaxy. Galaxy was the one he had the tip on last time.
[I have said previously that I would’t comment on (religious) issues, however you’d be amazed how many people believe that the Earth is 10,000 (or similar) years old. And also believe that dinosaur bones are a hoax. I have some kooks like this in my own extended family and to say the least on the rare occasions that we get together it just becomes an amazing slugfest which usually ends in renewed estrangement.]
Perahelion
Over 40% of US citizens have this belief.
Is there hope?
[How is the ALP going to counter, the mining groups, the tobacco industry & the Murdoch empire?]
If they can, it will be the sweetest victory of all. 🙂
Glen, your side should be hoping for a Nielsen right now 😉 The best 2 polls of the term for the Coalition were Nielsens.